“It’s Brazilian weather over there and the Chinese negotiations, which sometimes are on and sometimes aren’t,” said Jack Scoville of Price Futures Group in Chicago.

CBOT soybean contracts were down Tuesday after a news report said trade negotiations between China and the U.S. were off. The White House later said this wasn’t true. This was slightly supportive for the soybean market.

“We’re hoping (the China/U.S. trade meetings) will yield a lot of progress on various issues, intellectual property issue especially and that they’ll continue to kick the can down the road,” Scoville said.

Soybean prices also felt pressure after the Brazilian real tumbled in value following a speech from Jair Bolsonaro, the country’s president, on Tuesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

“That kind of took things down for a while too and now the real’s kind of stabilized,” Scoville said.

Wheat markets have been finding support from outside markets, according to Scoville. In Russia and Europe wheat prices have been strong, which has been supportive for U.S. markets.

The lack of data from USDA due to the ongoing partial government shutdown is making trading commodities harder, he said.

“No export news at all, no demand news at all, except for the weekly export inspections report which is well after the fact. We’re searching for news, you’ve got to work hard these days,” Scoville said.

A lot of customers, including buyers and sellers, Scoville said, are also starting to pull back due to the lack of data. This is making it harder for brokers to make a profit.

“You never know what tweet’s going to come out next and screw up what had been a wonderfully profitable position or at least not a horrid position. You can get hammered in half a tweet,” he said.

— Ashley Robinson writes for MarketsFarm, a division of Glacier FarmMedia specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

The post CBOT weekly outlook: Brazil, China drive U.S. commodities appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

The new Canada’s Food Guide is “also sort of a realization that there isn’t just one approach to achieving the proper nutrition that ensures a healthy outcome,” said Gordon Bacon, CEO of Pulse Canada.

The updated food guide, released Tuesday, focuses on eating plenty of vegetables and fruits, protein foods and whole grain foods, and drinking water.

The updated guide also emphasizes the benefits of plant-based foods, including pulses. In the section on protein foods, pulses recommended include beans, peas and lentils.

Bacon said he wasn’t surprised by the recommendations from Health Canada. Based on what he had heard from earlier discussions about the food guide, he had been expecting to see pulses included. And while he said not all groups may be impressed with the food guide’s recommendations, he thinks it’s important to focus on the idea of having a balanced diet.

“I think that kind of a key message is that a healthy food item when consumed, without consideration of overall dietary requirements for things like fibre and fat and sugar, doesn’t necessarily mean (by eating) healthy food items you will end up with a healthy diet,” Bacon said.

The pulse industry is a major part of Canadian agriculture but has been facing challenges selling crops internationally. Canadian farmers grew 2.559 million tonnes of lentils in 2017, according to Statistics Canada. However, production fell last year to 2.092 million tonnes. This was due to Canada’s largest market, India, placing import tariffs on pulses and thus reducing purchases.

Bacon expects that by pulses being included in the updated food guide will help the Canadian pulse industry by urging Canadians to think of pulses as a source of protein for their diets and eat more of them. On a larger scale, the inclusion helps push forward ideas that Pulse Canada has been working on for years.

“You can’t look at single ingredients. You don’t start building around one plate a meal that you have, you really look at how you meet all of your requirements from a dietary perspective. It is consistent with the approach that we’re taking,” Bacon said.

Bacon does think this could help change the way people think about pulses as an ingredient. For years Pulse Canada and other pulse organizations have been pushing for pulses to be included in formulations of foods such as breakfast cereals. Having Health Canada include pulses in the food guide should help to spread that idea.

— Ashley Robinson writes for MarketsFarm, a division of Glacier FarmMedia specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

The post Pulse weekly outlook: Lentils, peas get new profile as protein source appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

“I would say the buyers have adequate coverage for January, February, even a bit of March. And I would say we maybe have seen the (barley) price soften up a bit,” said Nelson Neumann, grain trader with Agfinity at Stony Plain, Alta.

Over the past week, Agfinity saw the feed barley price in the Lethbridge area weaken to the mid-$250s range, from $260 per tonne last week.

Feed wheat has been steady at $245 in the Lethbridge area and in a $235-$240 per tonne range closer to Calgary. However, Neumann hasn’t seen much movement of feed wheat as of late.

Winter so far has been fairly mild, which has allowed for smooth deliveries to feedlots and has helped to keep a cap on prices. If there was to be an extended period of cold weather, Neumann said, that could push prices higher.

Corn from the U.S. is still making its way into feedlots, according to Neumann. Most of it is from pre-bought contracts, but new purchases are still being made. The price had crept up over the last few weeks, though, as the Canadian dollar rallied.

“(The) corn price went down again a couple of days ago… so it’s an attractive option again. It can put a ceiling on the domestic barley and wheat pricing,” he said.

The feed market should stay stable throughout the next few months. While Neumann has been hearing from producers that there isn’t a lot of barley available, from his experience and from what the feedlots have seen, that isn’t the case.

“From what we’ve been seeing there’s plenty of (grain), especially feed wheat, available for the year,” he said, adding feedlots should be well supplied until this year’s harvest.

— Ashley Robinson writes for MarketsFarm, a division of Glacier FarmMedia specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

The post Feed weekly outlook: Prairie prices stable during mild winter appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

“We don’t have something very dominant for traders to focus on and supplies are pretty comfortable everywhere in the oilseed complex for now… the only factor that has hurt canola a little bit has been the Canadian dollar,” said Ken Ball of PI Financial in Winnipeg, adding the recent rally in the dollar pressured canola contracts.

The winter season usually is a quieter time of year for the grain trade — and of late it has been quieter than usual.

In the U.S., a partial government shutdown has delayed the release of most U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports, which has left traders of the soy complex with not much to go on.

In Canada, while the usual information has still made its way out of sources such as the Canadian Grain Commission, there has been little data to be supportive for the market.

Traders had been hoping canola usage would pick up and bring down canola stocks, but that hasn’t been the case, Ball said.

“It’s not clear that’s going to happen now, so it looks like supplies are going to remain relatively comfortable.”

Instead, canola has been finding itself choppy and pushed around by outside forces — mainly the value of the dollar.

Lately, Ball said, canola has also found itself independently weak from the soy complex — due to speculative trading, he suspects.

“So speculators may be pressing it or again it could be speculative spreaders that are pressing it a little bit at times,” he said.

Heading into the next week, Ball suspects the canola market has stabilized as the stronger Canadian dollar has been priced into contracts and shouldn’t influence the market as much as before.

“None of the markets are showing big strong directions. They’re all really just chopping around in ranges, moving mostly sideways. And then canola will, too, I think, once you take the dollar affect away a little bit, it should start to just chop around sideways again.”

— Ashley Robinson writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

The post ICE weekly outlook: Quiet winter has canola steadying appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

“We’re going to see volatility throughout the year obviously but when we look at that season, or the full year average, we’re looking for it to be right around that 75 cents,” said Craig Klemmer, principal agricultural economist at FCC.

FCC bases its prediction on oil price forecasts and interest rate spreads between the U.S. and Canada. Of late, oil has been on the upswing, due to production cuts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

“On the downside of the oil side of the complex, the Canadian economy, economic growth, U.S. growth for the economy looks to be slowing down a little bit and that’s going to put some downward pressure as we move throughout the year,” Klemmer said.

The Bank of Canada has lowered its expectation for rate increases, and FCC forecasts for one to two rate increases this year. For the U.S., FCC also expects more rate increases, either two or three.

Global trade could also affect the dollar. When looking south of the border, Klemmer said, FCC pays close attention to the trade talks between the U.S. and China and what affect that could have on global trade.

“We’re going to continue to be monitoring how those relationships are through 2019. And we do see a thawing in that relationship and that’s going to help the markets out moving forward in 2019,” he said.

The Canadian dollar could also see some pressure from the rate of the growth of the U.S. and Canadian economies. FCC is expecting the U.S. economy to grow slightly faster than the Canadian economy, at two to 2.5 per cent.

In Canada, the Bank of Canada expects for inflation to hit its two per cent mid-point target.

When looking at agriculture specifically, the slightly weaker Canadian dollar should be good for the industry. Canada’s agriculture industry is export-driven, with most business done in U.S. dollars.

“That’s going to give us a little of a competitive advantage on the returns for our pork and beef exports, as well as our grain and oilseed and pulse exports, and those will help to improve, or help support Canadian agriculture,” Klemmer said.

— Ashley Robinson writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

The post Ag seen gaining on slightly weaker loonie in 2019 appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

The partner companies had made various promises at the time and many in Western Canada were cautious, hoping for the best but not fully knowing what to expect.

A year later, Nutrien has begun to settle into its new role in the agriculture world — and according to retailers and producers it hasn’t really shaken things up all that much.

However, a few aspects of the merger still have many in Western Canada cautiously watching.

“I don’t want to pretend to call it a non-event because there’s always a concern about consolidation and all I can say at the moment is it doesn’t have any obvious impact,” said Ray Redfern of Redfern Farm Services in southwestern Manitoba.

Before the merger, Redfern, an independent crop input retailer, sold both Agrium and PotashCorp products. Most Agrium products were bought directly from the company, while PotashCorp products were bought through a middleman, Agrico.

Since the merger, those purchases have continued as before. Redfern estimated, though, that an increasing portion of purchases are now being bought directly through Nutrien.

On the producer side, the merger remains a wait-and-see game as many of the new company’s changes are still ongoing, according to Todd Lewis, president of the Agriculture Producers Association of Saskatchewan (APAS).

“There were some concerns, I know, in some areas with the amalgamations that there was going to be lost capacity, as far as delivery opportunities and picking up fertilizer,” he said.

In July, Nutrien rebranded Agrium’s Crop Production Services retailers as Nutrien Ag Solutions and invested money in upgrades to the retailers.

Lewis expected producers will find out this spring when they go to pick up fertilizer if the changes helped to improve wait times for pickups.

Out of office

There is concern from producers, though, if Nutrien will follow through with all of the promises it made before the merger, according to Lewis.

“A lot (of the news) about (Nutrien) in the media is about the head office here in Saskatchewan. I think Saskatchewan producers see that and kind of wonder about some of the promises that were made, if that wasn’t being kept, are some of the other ones at risk as well.”

Before the merger Nutrien had promised Saskatchewan it would keep Saskatoon, the home city for PotashCorp’s headquarters, as its head office location. PotashCorp was originally a provincial Crown corporation and when it was privatized in 1989, legislation required PotashCorp and any successors to maintain a head office in Saskatchewan.

Since the merger, though, almost all of Nutrien’s executives have been based out of the company’s Calgary office.

One unexpected change made by Nutrien was the company’s decision in February to shut down phosphate production at its facility near Redwater, Alta., northeast of Edmonton.

The Redwater plant, owned by Agrium before the merger, was the only phosphate manufacturer in Canada, while PotashCorp had phosphate facilities in the United States. For cost savings, Nutrien decided to move all of its phosphate production to the U.S.

Independent retailers have been warned by Nutrien they will have to ship phosphate in themselves, Redfern said.

However, for retailers in Manitoba such as Redfern Farm Services, Nutrien has said it will still distribute phosphate product from its facility near Portage la Prairie.

The shift to U.S.-made phosphate products has provided an incentive for more competition in the market. Before the merger, Agrium had the advantage of being the only retailer of Canadian phosphate products.

However, now that all phosphate products will be coming from outside of Canada, other retailers have started to expand their physical presence in Canada.

“(We’re hoping) that added competition here will bring fertilizer prices down, (or) at least keep (them) throttled a little bit anyway because we need good competition to make sure we’re paying a fair price,” Lewis said, adding Nutrien has assured farmers they won’t end up paying more for phosphate because of the closure.

— Ashley Robinson writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow her at @AshleyMR1993 on Twitter.

The post Nutrien merger’s effects ongoing a year later appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

“The meal has been a leader to the upside, so that again should help crush margins and it has helped crush margins. But trade has been lacklustre and I expect that to continue here,” said Keith Ferley of RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg.

While the Chicago Board of Trade soy complex has been on the upswing, due to positive news about trade talks between the U.S. and China, canola hasn’t been able to find support from soy.

Canola has been weakening for the last week as the Canadian dollar climbed above the 75-U.S. cent mark, which Ferley said should have stirred up interest for canola exports.

“We’ve had a nice sell-off here. Market continues to come down and we should be attracting buyers other than just routine stuff. So we’re lacking that interest,” he said.

Ferley suspects something has thrown off interest in Canadian canola. It could be fallout from last month’s arrest of Huawei chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou and China “thumbing their nose” their nose at Canada because of it, he said.

Oilseed markets have also been seeing a bounce due to reports of dryness in Brazil and too much precipitation in Argentina. But Ferley said the market needs to see more proof of the damage to the South American soy crops.

However, due to the ongoing partial government shutdown in the U.S., there aren’t any reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture to show the full extent of what’s happening in South America.

“That keeps us, if anything, kind of just chopping around in choppy action here,” he said.

On the Prairies, there have also increased farmer deliveries due to a snap of warm weather — but a shift back to cooler temperatures is going to put a stop to that.

“We’re bouncing around here (for temperatures) over the next little while. So that may deter some deliveries… so unfortunately winter doldrums is the heading I would use,” Ferley said.

— Ashley Robinson writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

The post ICE weekly outlook: Canola stuck in winter slump appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

The organic pea protein fractionation facility at Vanscoy, about 20 km southwest of Saskatoon, has been running since last year and the new agreement will see it expand operations to include more pulses.

“We’ve identified plant-based proteins as a high growth, high value market opportunity that is on-trend with consumers’ desire to find sustainable and good tasting alternatives to animal based proteins,” Ingredion CEO James Zallie said in a release.

Ingredion announced the deal in December as part of a US$140 million investment in plant-based proteins. The announcement also included the expansion of Ingredion’s Vitessence pulse protein isolate line.

That expansion will be done through the conversion of a soy processing facility in South Sioux City, Neb., which Ingredion bought last year, into a pulse processor.

The Verdient facility is run by PMC Management, which manages several processing ventures owned by Academy Award-winning film director James Cameron and his wife Suzy Amis Cameron. Saskatoon-based PIC Investment Group also has ownership of the plant.

The Vanscoy plant, announced in 2017, was online by 2018.

Ingredion “share(s) our vision for plant-based proteins and other ingredients from pulses, and with their resources, expertise and worldwide reach, together we can be leaders in the new wave of global food production,” James Cameron said in Ingredion’s release.

Ingredion, based near Chicago, processes grains, fruits, vegetables and other plant materials into value-added ingredients for various industries. Its products are available in more than 120 countries.

According to Verdient’s website, it plans to increase annual production volume to over 160,000 tonnes at the Vanscoy plant. In a release on the latest partnership, it said investments are being made within the existing facility to make pulse-based protein concentrates and flours from peas, lentils and fababeans for human food applications.

This isn’t Ingredion’s first business with the Saskatchewan pulse industry. In 2014, Ingredion signed a deal with Regina-based AGT Food and Ingredients to be the exclusive distributor of AGT’s pulse flours, protein and bran ingredients for its consumer foods and ingredient divisions.

However, the two companies recently agreed to end the exclusive distribution agreement.

According to a spokesperson with Ingredion, AGT and Ingredion “anticipate that a supply relationship may continue on a non-exclusive basis in the future.”

— Ashley Robinson writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow her at @AshleyMR1993 on Twitter.

The post U.S. firm partners with James Cameron’s Prairie pulse processor appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

“I would say we cruised through Christmas and (the) New Year holidays fairly well. Not a lot of massive panic. We had nice weather which really helped, loads continued to move smoothly,” said Brandon Motz, sales manager at CorNine Commodities at Lacombe, Alta.

Feed barley delivered to Lethbridge is currently sitting around $258 per tonne, compared to $215-$220 per tonne a year ago. Corn, mainly from the U.S., is hanging out around $260-$262 per tonne, while feed wheat is at $255 per tonne, compared to $215 per tonne last year. Prices spiked in March and have hung out around the same levels since then.

According to Motz, the market is poking around currently and trying to find its spot as the first quarter of 2019 begins.

“Corn continues to be priced fairly strong, so (it will) be interesting to see if that continues to be a viable option for feeding or if barley does start to trickle in as a replacement to corn,” he said, adding that wheat has also been making its way into the feed ration lately.

In December, farmer selling slowed down, but Motz expects it to pick up again as farmers start to plan for seeding in April and clear bin space.

On the feedlot side, yards are still very full and Motz expects they will start to need feed coverage in February.

“In general January has some pretty good coverage, the odd adjustment as we just transition here. But overall I don’t get the feeling that the feedlot is not short grain at all,” he said.

— Ashley Robinson writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

The post Feed weekly outlook: Prairie grain prices higher than last year appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

“It all has to do with the government shutdown in the States. Soybeans keep on rallying, than they lose ground towards the end of the session, because how many cargoes of Chinese beans the U.S. has taken,” said Wayne Palmer, analyst with Exceed Grain.

“As long as beans rally, everything else is going to rally with it, including canola.”

The U.S. government has been shut down since Dec. 22, when U.S. President Donald Trump refused to sign a spending bill in an impasse over his demands for funding for a U.S./Mexico border wall.

Since then, various federal government departments, including the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), have been partially shut down. During the shutdown, USDA has not released export sales data, among other reports.

This means that while the oilseed trade suspects China has been purchasing U.S. soybeans there is no confirmation it has happened.

According to Palmer, the soybean market has been building itself up on the thought the purchases have happened. However, once the shutdown ends and the data is released, if that isn’t the case, the market will fall.

“It’s just dull markets, just waiting to see. Like this is the one time no news is good news,” he said.

The canola market is playing follow-the-leader with the soybean market, awaiting news. There has also been a lack of farmer selling for canola due to the recent cold snap on the Prairies over the holidays. Palmer suspects farmers will continue not to sell for the foreseeable future.

“I think the farmer actually is cash-adequate probably right into the middle of February… he was able to get about $11 for his canola and I think most of the farmers did enough pre-selling in order to carry them through to almost the end of winter,” he said.

Unless something really unforeseen happens, the canola market can’t go down any further, he added.

The only movement in the market currently has come from funds, according to Palmer.

“Right now the only one who is going to sell it is funds. But it has to be a technical reaction and the only time they’re going to sell it is on down markets,” he said.

— Ashley Robinson writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

The post ICE weekly outlook: Canola waits for U.S. shutdown to end appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.