The Canadian food system’s reputation has taken a significant hit in the last couple years, said Ashely Bruner of the Canadian Centre for Food Integrity (CCFI) during a recent webinar.

“For the first time in seven years, Canadians are quite polarized on whether the country’s food system is headed in the right or wrong direction,” said Bruner, CCFI’s director of research and stakeholder engagement.

The CCFI has conducted research every year since 2017 on the topic of public trust in the Canadian food system, and according to the 2024 data, the most recent available, only three in 10 Canadians believe the food system is on the right track.

“This is a tracking low for us,” Bruner said.

Fewer than half have positive view

The 2024 survey also showed that fewer than half of Canadians (45 per cent) have a positive view of the food system, reflecting a sharp decrease from previous years, and that 18 per cent of Canadian consumers had a “negative” impression of the food system, an increase from 11 per cent the previous year.

“Earlier waves of research found that Canadians were largely indifferent to the food system, and a fair amount do remain as such, but we are losing ground on that mushy middle to pessimism and polarization,” Bruner said.

According to CCFI data, perceptions of the food system peaked in 2020, when nearly half of Canadians felt the food system was headed in the right direction, a number that reflects what Bruner calls a “COVID boost.”

“In nearly all of our tracking metrics, Canada’s food system was seen as doing very well in continuing to provide reliable and safe food for Canadians,” she said of the 2020 data.

“Grocery store workers were literally heroes. We were banging pots and pans outside every night. Everyone learned to make bread. We were told we were all in this together. People were engaged … and that engagement translated into improved perceptions.”

Bruner says the reason for the decline now is likely due to growing levels of pessimism in general, which is not unique to Canada or the food sector.

Trust in institutions declining

Public trust in Canadian sectors and institutions, such as the agriculture industry, federal and provincial institutions and mainstream media, is also on the decline, according to the CCFI data.

Furthermore, Bruner believes that farmers, along with other professional groups such as scientists and researchers, are losing their audiences to flashier and more accessible social media influencers, and that this needs to be addressed through collective action from the sector.

Some experts, however, question just how much value the sector should place in public trust.

John Gormley, a former broadcaster and MP with decades of experience shaping and analyzing public opinion in Saskatchewan, believes the agriculture industry should be critical of the issue of public trust as it relates to social license.

“I have real concerns about social license,” said Gormley, who currently practices law in Saskatoon.

“I think social license often confuses public education and public acceptance with a sense of permission. And I start from the point that nobody needs anybody else’s license, approval, consent, permission to carry on an already legal and regulated activity.”

He says that farming practices are already heavily regulated in Canada and shouldn’t be constrained by opinions of people who do not understand the industry and/or who are involved with special interest groups.

Farmers still largely trusted

However, Gormley does believe that there is potential for the sector to capitalize on the inherent trust that the public has in farmers.

“Overwhelmingly, people regard farmers as being on the same page as they are. They’re trustworthy human beings, they adhere to science, they adhere to best practices. They’re ethical people who don’t want to cause harm … and those are some of the strongest hallmarks of trust, the sense of empathy and identity.”

“Could you take those individual trust metrics and to amplify them to a larger audience? That doesn’t hurt. There are lots of people in the larger audience who haven’t applied their mind to it. Maybe they don’t have that kind of affinity or exposure to a farmer. So, I don’t think that’s a bad thing.”

Bruner also believes there are opportunities to capitalize on public trust in farmers. Although those trust levels have declined recently, they still remain higher than, or on par with, that of other professions, she says.

“Farmers are historically and always the most trusted, but the alarming decrease in trust toward this group means they’re now tied with scientists, and university researchers are close behind.”

She also believes there are various other data-supported ways to engage the general public, including by sharing information through trusted sources and influencers, disseminating information to make it more emotionally resonant and cultivating media and science literacy.

Data also shows there are many aspects of the food system that could form emotional touch points with the general public, Bruner said, including in terms of the diversity of jobs available in the sector and collective efforts to grow sustainability efforts.

“As we move into this year, it’s clear that things need to be done differently,” she said.

“Canadians are paying attention more than ever, which is a great opportunity to tell our story.”

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“It is really disappointing.”

Production of brown and Oriental mustard was down, Penner said, while that of yellow mustard was up about 70 per cent, according to Statistics Canada numbers at the end of the year.

These numbers worked together to balance out carryover supplies from last year, Penner says.

“We have some adequate, comfortable supplies of all three classes this year,” he said, estimating total production from last year of around 200,000 tonnes and current supplies of around 265,000 tonnes.

In terms of demand, he said production in the United States was down about one-quarter from the previous year, at 47,000 tonnes, but with a decent sized carryover, he isn’t sure how this will affect global trade.

“Our guesstimate at that they’re looking at a slight contraction in supplies in the U.S. but not adequate for what they’ve done in the past. So, they’re going to still need imports.”

He says there’s also the major question of how trade between the two countries could be affected by a potential tariff.

“Are those imports going to move freely or at an extra price? We’ll maybe see something next week,” he said Jan. 16.

Russia, which produced about 183,000 tonnes of mustard in 2022, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, will likely be a less significant competitor this year due to decreased production and yields last year, Penner said.

At the same time, Ukraine is becoming a more significant player, with increased exports last year and likely even more this year.

“I do know from contacts in Ukraine that there has been more interest in growing niche crops like mustard because of all the uncertainty,” Penner said.

“They’re looking for crops specifically that they can export directly into the EU.”

In light of all this, Penner said he’s hoping to see Canada export about 105,000 tonnes of mustard this year, compared to about 90,000 tonnes last year.

“I’m trying to be really optimistic, but it’s not going to be a stellar year for exports.”

Longer term, he says the outlook isn’t much better.

“When you have lows in the mustard market, they’re long lows. I think we’re setting the stage for that same kind of scenario.”

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“Across Canada, there’s about 1,200 breweries. I can guarantee you, just about all of them are using oats to some degree,” he said today at the SaskOats annual general meeting in Saskatoon.

Heise, who is president and chief executive officer of Regina’s Rebellion Brewery, estimates his operation uses about 100 pounds of oats per batch of beer, and uses oats in about half of its beers.

“An individual brewer isn’t probably using a whole bunch of oats, but as an industry, it ends up being a significant amount.”

Although oats have been used as an ingredient in beer for centuries, for both health and trade reasons, Heise says this most recent surge in use in Canada has happened alongside the growth of the craft beer industry, which began in the 1980s.

One of the most popular types of craft beers in North America is the India Pale Ale, (IPA), which features hoppy flavours and intense aromas.

One style of IPA beer, hazy IPAs, is custom made for oats, Heise said.

“Hops can be a little aggressive and bitter, so the oats really help smooth that out. It creates this textured mouth-feel creaminess,” he said, adding the oats add the desired haziness.

“There’s this ‘haze craze’ going on in craft beer. That’s why the oats are really taking off. Every single one of us (brewers) is using a ton more oats than we ever have before.”

Oats are also commonly used in stouts to add flavour and texture.

And in recent years, brewers have begun to discover additional benefits of using oats in beer, in terms of both brewing and marketing, Heise said.

“It actually improves fermentation and yeast health, and that’s really critical to get a nice, clean tasting beer,” he said, adding that using oats can also help improve shelf stability.

“I think it’s phenomenal — the marketing around oats as being healthy is not a bunch of BS.”

Unfortunately, he said his brewery’s oat use isn’t likely to have much of an impact on Saskatchewan oat producers’ overall profitability, despite the fact he’s happy to pay a premium for locally produced ingredients.

“I don’t think much of that ends up in your pockets. We are a very, very tiny part of the oat market, but we’re doing our part to try to boost those prices up.”

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“I’ll be quite surprised if he (U.S. president-elect Donald Trump) doesn’t implement the tariffs on his first day,” said oat market analyst Randy Strychar at the SaskOats 2025 annual general meeting held today during the Crop Production Show in Saskatoon.

“That’s going to include oats and oat products.”

However, there are many unknowns to be addressed before the industry should start panicking, he said.

“It’s the U.S. companies that are going to have to scramble and find out what the U.S. government wants, how they administer it, and that’s a big deal.”

In the longer term, if the tariffs stay in place, there will likely be price erosion for Canadian oats, said Strychar, who is also the president and owner of Ag Commodity Research and Oatinformation.com

“So just right off the top of your head, if you’re getting four and a half bucks a bushel in Western Canada, take 25 per cent off of that down the road.”

He said feed markets would likely be impacted by tariffs early on.

“I’ve already got some U.S. companies saying, ‘we’ll just stop buying Canadian oats in the feed sector.’ That’s about 300 to 400 metric tonnes a year.”

However, he said importers would likely choose to continue to import Canadian oats longer term and pay the tariff because importing from countries such as Australia, the United Kingdom and European Union isn’t viable for a number of reasons.

“Early indications are, and all the millers down in the U.S. are running the math right now, it’s cheaper to pay the tariff and then ultimately, my guess is, they’ll pass it back on to the Canadian farmers.”

He said another factor working in favour of local oat producers is that Canadian oats are in demand by consumers, and food companies will need to protect their brands.

“Canadian oats are great, and they’re marketed. People understand where most of those oats are coming from.”

Overall, Strychar said he doesn’t believe Canadian oat producers should be panicking about U.S. tariffs just yet.

“We’re probably not going to see a lot of reduction in the actual number of oats they take,” he said.

“There are so many things up in the air on this. The reality is it’s an erratic political agenda that we’re about to face as Canadians and a Canadian marketplace, and we just don’t know what’s going to play out.”

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“There are two areas where we’re falling down,” Saskatchewan deputy agriculture minister Bill Greuel said during an agriculture research panel discussion held Tuesday in Saskatoon as part of Crop Production Week 2025.

“One is front-end basic research and science, and the other is downstream commercialization and collaboration between governments and industry to bring those inventions to market.”

Greuel says the Saskatchewan government invests $37 million a year in ag research, a number that has increased over the last two decades, but he would like to see increasing investments from the federal government as well.

“If you look at everything that’s happening globally, from a trade perspective, a climate change perspective, a growth and population perspective, we’ve got all of this land here in Canada that we better be utilizing as an asset.”

However, increasing funding won’t address all the challenges facing the research community, said Angela Bedard-Haughn, dean of the College of Agriculture and Bioresources at the University of Saskatchewan.

“It’s not just a matter of money,” she said, emphasizing the need to support all stages of research and development, including innovation through to commercialization.

“There’s almost a bit of a culture shift that needs to accompany that.”

Saskatchewan is uniquely well positioned to innovate when it comes to ag research, said Steve Webb, executive director of the Global Institute for Food Security at the U of S.

“We have all the industry players here, we have a growing investment piece, and we have connectivity with the farmers, the grower groups,” he said.

“It’s one of a kind in the world.”

Because of this, he believes we should be seeing more market-impact innovation coming from the province.

“We have to be thinking about return on investment, the opportunity for us to get more bang for the buck from a Canadian perspective.”

The productivity problem is complex, panelists agreed, caused and affected by issues such as a lack of funding and access to capital for ag research, lacking infrastructure, public trust issues and Canada’s regulatory environment.

But despite the scope of these challenges, Greuel says that addressing them should be a top priority within the agriculture sector right now.

“The world is getting more competitive. The trade environment is getting more competitive. If our farmers can’t be more competitive on a global scale, we’re going to be in trouble.”

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The 32-year-old Toronto-based single mom says this isn’t the only way rising food costs have affected her over the last year.

“It’s really affected what I make and how I cook, and it’s taken the joy out of it as well,” she says. “I don’t want to spend that much money on ingredients.”

Clark is not alone.

According to a recent report from the Canadian Centre for Food Integrity, food costs were the top life concern for Canadians this year for the fifth year in a row, and many people have changed their grocery shopping and cooking habits accordingly.

“Over half of Canadians indicate that they are very concerned about this issue, and that level has increased a significant three points compared to last year,” Ashley Bruner, the centre’s research manager, said at a recent conference in Mississauga, Ont. It also ranked higher than concerns about inflation, health care and housing prices.

Concerns related to the cost of energy and the national economy have fallen from the top five since last year.

Although concern about the overall cost of food has been increasing significantly over the past few years, concern about the affordability of food has grown at an even steeper rate.

As Canadians feel the pinch of other economic factors such as inflation, interest rates and housing prices, food is seen as expensive and increasingly unaffordable.

This year’s Canada Food Price Report also estimated that food prices in Canada will continue to rise by five to seven per cent, translating into an extra $1,065 in food costs, on average, for a family of four.

Last year, food cost increases were higher, according to the report, with jumps of 10.8 per cent in Alberta, 10.3 per cent in Saskatchewan and 10.7 per cent in Manitoba.

Though a report published earlier this year showed Canada ranked second lowest in the world for food inflation rates, many Canadians feel discouraged by consistent jumps in costs. According to the CCFI report, only a quarter of respondents felt that Canadian food was among the most affordable in the world.

University of Saskatchewan professor Stuart Smyth, who was involved in creating the Canada Food Cost 2023 report, said the mainstream media isn’t giving Canadians a global context for food inflation, although he’s not sure that would have much of an impact on morale.

“Knowing food inflation in Canada is low compared to other countries provides little to no comfort to consumers,” he said. “Consumers want answers as to why food prices continue to rise in Canada.”

However, there are no simple answers. Reasons involve myriad factors, in Canada and globally, that have varying rates of impact and can change relatively quickly.

“As an expert whose job it is to stay on top of these issues and factors, I find it challenging to be consistently up to date on these multiple factors,” said Smyth. “It would take a great deal of time and effort for the average consumer to develop a good grasp of the economic complexities that contribute to food inflation.”

The CCFI report found that Canadians are equally as overwhelmed.

While 41 per cent of respondents said they believed rising costs were due to supply chain issues, another 34 per cent believed they were due to businesses prioritizing profits, compared to 20 per cent last year. Only seven per cent connected higher food prices to world conflict and labour shortages and six per cent with severe weather events.

Bruner says given the complexity of the situation, it’s not surprising that the report showed only a quarter of Canadians feel their food is the most affordable in the world.

“And that’s an opinion that’s been worsening, a significant six points compared to 2019,” she said.

Smyth said that number is a win for the food industry.

“This is higher than I would have estimated. This shows that one in four Canadians is listening to the food industry’s messaging and that if the food industry continues providing this information, hopefully a greater percentage of Canadians will become aware of this,” he said.

In light of rising costs and concerns about affordability, Canadians have adapted their food habits, the CCFI report found. They are buying more frozen food, adapting recipes, changing grocery stores and eating less meat. Consumers also reported switching to plant-based meat in an effort to save money.

For consumers such as Clark, cost has superseded all other factors at the grocery store. She said she no longer buys organic eggs, instead favouring bulk packages from Costco.

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