“It’s been a very hard year to predict because we have record amounts of acres planted, an incredible start to the season, and then of course the well-publicized weather problems leading to areas that were drowned out… it was kind of across the board,” said Colin Young of Midwest Investments at Moose Jaw, Sask.

Green lentils are about 70 per cent harvested, while the red lentils harvest is just starting, Young said, adding he’s heard of yields ranging anywhere from five to 35 bushels per acre.

“Farmers will have a little bit of everything: he’ll have a field that will run 35 (bushels per acre) and be good, he’ll have fields that were hit by hail and will run eight bushels to the acre and are low quality,” Young said.

The first green lentils to come off were surprisingly good, he said; however, as time goes on, the quality of the crop left to be harvested starts to decrease.

Disease pressure was also extremely high this year, with lentils and chickpeas alike fighting multiple diseases at once, Young said.

“Small green lentils sat in areas that tended to run quite well; the predominant quality was No. 2… Laird lentils are generally running fairly poor.”

The market, which typically takes the majority of No. 1 lentils, will be in for an adjustment as very few No. 1’s are available due to the weather, Young said.

“My feeling is that the market is tight on green lentil supplies, and they have too many No. 2 Estons… we’re tight on stocks but we’re long in the one market class in a grade that at this point, the market doesn’t want to pay premium for.”

With so many different factors weighing on the market, Young said he questions whether it will spiral out of control.

“India, which did take a large volume of green lentils last year, is not going to look to import lentils due to strong pigeon pea crops and low prices,” he said.

“So take our smaller production combined with reducing export demand, factor in the U.S.’s strong production of good quality… Today the market’s firm, but for farmers who pulled off average yields less than 20 bushels per acre… they are waiting for markets to go up while buyers hope the prices come down.”

Despite having success in some areas, Young said overall, this season has been a disappointment.

“The crops started out so good and the market was so high… to watch it deteriorate from July 1 until now, it’s been a really bitter harvest.”

— Erin DeBooy writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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Prices were pushed higher as traders prepared for subcontracts to come off the board next week; however, gains are expected to be short-lived, said one analyst.

“I think we’re just seeing a dead cat bouncing, for both (soybeans) and corn we were a little oversold,” said Scott Capinegro, senior broker for HighGround Trading Group in Illinois.

“The rule of thumb is when ending stocks go up, it’s not bullish.”

Soybean futures for the November contract closed at $9.755 per bushel on the week ending Wednesday, an increase of more than 32 cents from the previous week (all figures US$).

Rain during soybean harvests could hurt yields in some areas; however, yields are still expected to be huge, Capinegro said.

“I still think we’re going to see November (soybeans) in the low $9-$9.20 (per bushel) range, maybe even $8.85 (per bushel) with harvest,” he said.

Corn futures climbed more than 17 cents to close at $3.3325 per bushel for the December contract.

“Wherever the September low was, which right now has been $3.01, I would think that’s a target on the downside for the December corn,” Capinegro said.

“We know we have a big crop; I’m not in the 175 (bushels per acre) camp, but I can definitely see it being 171 to 172 (bushels per acre), that’s very possible.”

World production numbers for last week showed new records for corn, wheat and soybeans, Capinegro said, adding he is uncertain on what it will take to stop the grain glut.

“The only way I possibly see changing (the global oversupply of grain) is to drop these markets low enough to discourage some planting.”

Farmers also have some decisions to make about the commodities on which they’re going to focus.

“One of the big problems we’re going to have in the U.S. next year is losing anywhere from two to three million wheat acres for winter wheat… some of that goes into soybeans and some of that goes into corn, and we can’t afford to plant 94 million acres of corn again.”

— Erin DeBooy writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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“Everything’s coming off this week, (prices are) coming down… there’s no real major issues going on,” said Terry Reilly, senior commodity analyst with Futures International in Chicago. “I think it’s general harvest pressure.”

Soybean futures for the September contract closed at $10.3075 per bushel on the week ending Wednesday, a 25-cent increase from the previous week (all figures US$).

Flooding in Louisiana and surrounding areas gave soybeans a little bit of a boost, Reilly said; however, improving weather in the U.S. will continue to add pressure.

Corn futures fell on the week, dropping more than two U.S. cents to US$3.275 per bushel for the September contract.

Favourable weather throughout the Midwest weighed on corn throughout the week, as well as expectations for a large corn crop as the Pro Farmer crop tour makes its way through some of the best corn-growing regions of the U.S.

“(Thursday) evening we’re going to get the yields from the Pro Farmer crop tour, which may have a small impact on the market,” Reilly said. “We’ll just watch crop conditions when they come out next Monday.”

Traders are also keeping an eye on export sales on Thursday for a fresh indication if China is still buying high quantities of U.S. soybeans, he said.

The option expiration for soybeans’ September contract is also this Friday, he said.

“You may have some traders position themselves or get out of the option market, which may gyrate futures a little bit.”

— Erin DeBooy writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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Ending stocks for the recently finished 2015-16 crop year are currently estimated at only 5,000 tonnes, according to the latest AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops report.

That number is way lower than it should be, according to David Nobbs, general manager of Canpulse Foods and current chair of the Canaryseed Development Commission of Saskatchewan.

“I say (carry-out) is 50,000 tonnes, they’re completely wrong… because marked product is coming to market and we won’t have harvest for at least four to six weeks and we’re still shipping,” Nobbs said.

“August and September sales will ship 20,000 tonnes alone in those two months before harvest even starts, so their 5,000-tonne number is ridiculous.”

With seeded area falling by 20 per cent for 2016-17 and the expected tightening of carryout stocks, prices were also forecast to increase, according to the AAFC report. The extra tonnage changes this outcome as well, Nobbs said.

“The canary market is weak, demand hasn’t been great. Mexico has bought significant quantities but we’re kind of at a stalemate,” Nobbs said. “The market has been about 22 to 23 cents today but buyers are looking for 21 cents, so it’s a bit of a standoff.”

Canary seed crop conditions are also looking good overall, Nobbs said, and that puts additional pressure on prices.

“There are some disease concerns, some lodging concerns, but I think production is definitely going to have the 150,000 tonnes required for the birdfeed market,” Nobb said.

Statistics Canada releases its first official estimates on the size of this year’s crop on Tuesday. Canada grew 149,000 tonnes of canary seed in 2015-16, according to Statistics Canada.

— Erin DeBooy writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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“(Sunflower) crops would be looking really good if it wasn’t for the storms that have been rolling through Manitoba over the last few weeks,” said Troy Turner, agronomist with the National Sunflower Association of Canada.

“There have been a lot of areas that have been hit very hard and there are some crops that have been pushed over… generally there will be a lot less yield if that’s the case,” he said.

Going into July, sunflower crops were thriving, with most producers successfully taking care of insects and controlling disease on an already good-looking crop, he said.

“It’s hard to say how many fields have been affected. I’ve talked to growers and some have lodging and others say they’re standing pretty good… we’ll know more when it comes to harvest how many of those acres will be affected.”

With lingering wet conditions and cooler weather, Turner said he’s also watching for rust damage and disease. This year is a higher pressure year for problems such as sclerotinia, he added.

“A drying trend would be a nice thing at this point to have, but we can’t control that unfortunately… everybody’s just sort of crossing their fingers,” he said. “I think most producers have done their due diligence to protect their crop as best they can at this point.”

Crops were able to get in the ground the first and second week in May, Turner said, meaning they are on schedule to come off starting the end of September.

“We’re still pretty optimistic that the crops still standing have potential for good yields,” he said. “There has been quite good moisture and good heat units this year, so the crops that haven’t been beat up by storms I’m very happy with.”

— Erin DeBooy writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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“We’re looking at some fairly high yields given the early estimates… average yields should come in at 47.5 to 48 bushels per acre this year,” said Jerry Klassen, manager of the Canadian office of Swiss-based GAP SA Grains and Produits. “That’s up from last year, which was 34.4 (bushels per acre).”

Some durum in Alberta and along the Saskatchewan border may ready for harvest in late August, but the bulk of crops should be harvested starting around Sept. 10, he said.

“We’re going to be very sensitive to some rains, but I think the frost risk is quite low… probably only 30 per cent of the crop will be vulnerable to frost risk this year,” he said.

With a large quantity can come problems with quality — something Klassen said they are keeping an eye on.

“We’re watching how the fusarium develops and how much farmers are spraying…as you go farther west the fusarium issue seems to be quite a bit less… in the heart of the durum area it seems to be okay,” he said. “There is a large uncertainty as to how that will affect quality.”

Vitreousness is also expected to be an issue, which usually shows up when yields are high because protein in durum is lower, which could also be a downgrading factor, he said.

However, prices are still down $2-$3 a bushel from last year as the market focuses on yield potential, he said.

“Prices for durum in (Canada) are $6 to $6.50 (per bushel) in the elevator system,” Klassen said. “We’ve got a fairly good crop coming in Canada and the U.S. as far as yield goes, and the pressure on the market is coming from anticipation of greater yields.”

The market is slow right now, which is normal for this time of year, Klassen said, but he expects to see more activity as business picks up in September.

“Quality has taken a backseat here but will likely come to the forefront in the next month…that’s when you could see the market take some direction from the quality.” Klassen said.

— Erin DeBooy writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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“There’s always a concern about quality and you never know where that is going to be until harvest,” said Art Enns, president of the Prairie Oat Growers Association at Morris in Manitoba’s Red River Valley.

Reports in South Dakota, where weather has been hot and dry, say quality hasn’t been what millers hoped for, Enns said. So far, oat crops across the Prairies are looking to fare better than their neighbours to the south.

“I think it’s varied… but overall everyone is saying the crops are looking decent, despite all the rain we’ve had,” he said.

Seeded acreage for oats is down about 15-20 per cent from last year due to strong competition from pulse and lentil crops, Enns said. With the addition of wet weather, exactly how much of a yield producers will get is still up in the air.

“Are there going to be losses due to flooding and stuff like that? Yes… We don’t know exactly what the crop is going to yield,” he said.

Disease could also become an issue with the excess moisture and reports of fusarium showing up in some areas, he said. To what extent that will affect the crops also won’t be known until harvest.

Last year, oat crops had some severe problems with lodging affecting quality, but luckily crops so far this year haven’t encountered the same issues, Enns said.

“The general crops overall are not showing as much (lodging), especially in the Red River Valley,” he said. “Last year we saw it affect quality… so I think we’re a step ahead at this point anyways, but it’s not in the bin yet.”

Prices in the Red River Valley are on the low end, but still similar to last year’s prices, Enns said.

“I know last week they were offering $3 (per bushel) off the combine; you could have sold for $3.25 (per bushel) a little bit earlier,” he said.

“We know that the carryout is going to be a little bit lower than it normally is, so there could be some demand down the road, especially closer to springtime. Could that reflect on higher prices? That’s to be determined.”

— Erin DeBooy writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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“Canary seed handles excess moisture better than a lot of other crops,” said Kevin Hursh, executive director of the Canaryseed Development Commission of Saskatchewan.

“Its yield prospects and production prospects are probably a lot brighter than some other crops, particularly pulse crops — such as lentils — that are taking a terrible beating with excess moisture.”

Canary seed is usually harvested in September and sometimes even into October, Hursh said, as it’s a hardier crop that matures later and doesn’t take a lot of downgrades from weather.

This year, some crops look like they are ready to come off early, he said.

“Surprisingly I’ve seen some canary seed starting to change colour; even though we’ve had all this moisture I think some (crops) might be ready to come off.”

Other than some lodging in some of the heavier crops, the only other thing threatening yields is disease, Hursh said, adding that even with disease issues, yields should still be well above expectations.

Canary seed prices have been stable to soft for the last few months, ranging around 24-25 cents a pound, he said.

“Certainly people would like to see higher prices… but when you start comparing them to spring wheat, durum and even canola prices, which have all softened, it’s not a shining star but I think it’s competitive with other crops.”

— Erin DeBooy writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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Monsanto’s Roundup Ready 2 Xtend soybeans, genetically modified with a tolerance to dicamba and glyphosate herbicides, were recently approved for import by the European Union.

Monsanto planned to introduce Xtend soybeans in Canada for the 2016 growing season, but was held back due to the EU’s lack of clearance.

Canada fleabane is the biggest problem weed soybean farmers have in Ontario, which has become resistant to Roundup, said Jeff Barlow, a farmer near Binbrook, Ont. and director with Grain Farmers of Ontario.

“We’re pretty excited about Roundup Ready Xtend being approved… it will give everybody another mode of action to beat up on some of this fleabane,” he said.

Canada fleabane has strong seeds that can survive in the ground for years and spread quickly, he said.

“It’s a very proliferous plant… they spread really quick and grow really tall, so if you have a lot of them in your (soybean) field, they’ll hurt the yield a lot…and there’s no way for you to kill it,” he said.

Since first being identified in the province in 2010, glyphosate-resistant Canada fleabane has spread from one county to 26 counties in only six growing seasons, said Mike Cowbrough, weed management lead with the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture at Guelph.

“Like any other weed, it’s competing for resources and that will come at the expense of yield… If there’s a heavy enough population, there have been documented yield losses as high as 97 per cent,” he said.

“More realistically, it’s about 50 to 60 per cent loss on average if you can’t control it effectively. Regardless, whether it’s 50 per cent or 97 per cent, that’s pretty significant economically.”

Until now, the only opportunity to manage Canada fleabane in soybean crops was some sort of tillage or pre-seed burndown prior to planting, Cowbrough said.

“Once the soybean crops have emerged, we don’t have the tools to control (Canada fleabane), aside from physically going in and pulling plants, but when you have a population of 60,000 to 80,000 plants per acre, that would be a tough task,” he said.

Roundup Ready 2 Xtend soybeans will be resistant to dicamba, a herbicide very effective against Canada fleabane, Barlow said.

“It will help a lot of people next year…give them one more thing they can use to keep the fleabane at bay,” he said.

In areas of the U.S. where Roundup Ready 2 Xtend soybeans have already been planted, dicamba has been causing headaches for neighbouring fields, as the chemical easily drifts and is toxic to regular soybeans and other crops, according to U.S. reports.

There is a concern for dicamba drift in Ontario, especially in southwest areas rich with horticulture, tree fruit and vineyards, said Cowbrough.

However, the herbicide has very specific guidelines on drift mitigation and what applicators should be doing to apply responsibly.

“With any herbicide or pesticide applied to a crop, you always want to mitigate drift. Some herbicides, their drift injury is just more visible than others,” Cowbrough said.

— Erin DeBooy writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow her at @ErinDeBooy on Twitter.

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“Since weather isn’t a major issue anymore, (traders) will be watching for potential record crop production sizes in the U.S.,” said Terry Reilly, senior commodity analyst with Futures International LLC.

“There should be some positioning by traders leading up to Aug. 12 and the (U.S. Department of Agriculture) supply and demand report, which will include the first survey for corn and soybeans for the season,” he said.

Soybean futures for the September contract closed at $9.735 per bushel on the week ending Wednesday, just over a 26-cent drop from the previous week (all figures US$). Corn futures fell on the week also, dropping more than 10 cents, to $3.25 per bushel, for the September contract.

Corn is expected to continue trading sideways for the next few days, but could start moving slightly higher as crops start coming off, said Sean Lusk, director of the commercial hedging division of Walsh Trading in Chicago.

“We are starting to get some reports of possible issues as these guys walk their fields. They’re still looking at good crops, no matter what, but maybe the yields won’t be as good as some of the forecasts say right now,” he said. “If that news continues, I won’t even call it a rally but it could move a bit higher.”

A pickup in U.S. exports could also support prices, Reilly said. “Brazil is going to adjust their terms of GMO imports to maybe allow for U.S. imports… They had a shortfall in production this year.”

Soybeans could also see support from U.S. exports, he added. “Since there’s no weather premium built into the market it’s all about demand right now, and with the daily USDA sales to China and unknown destinations, traders are seeing support in the market.”

August is critical for soybean growth, causing prices to be temperamental with any bit of news, said Lusk.

“If we get any kind of weather scares, that will be enough to trade it one way for a day or so, but we’re getting good news from the field so fundamentally they still appear to be strong,” Lusk said. “Producers should look to take advantage of any rallies if they come in.”

— Erin DeBooy writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow her at @erindebooy on Twitter.

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