GFM Network News


Grain ‘trade’ at risk of low-balling U.S. soybean yields: Maguire

Chicago / Reuters – At 47.1 bushels an acre, last month’s soybean yield estimate from the U.S. Department of Agriculture was a new all-time high. And the average trader estimate for the USDA’s November projection is higher still, at 47.608 bushels. Even so, the long-term relationship between corn and soybeans suggests current soybean yields remain relatively […] Read more



Options suggest soymeal tumble postponed till Jan.

Reuters — Soymeal traders have been bracing for a steep decline in U.S. meal prices for the past several months as a record-large soybean crop was planted and grown. Indeed, traders racked up large positions in bearish put options tied to December soymeal futures throughout last summer, indicating widespread expectations that U.S. meal prices would […] Read more

Chicago traders are focusing on their domestic surplus rather than on world conditions overall.

Poor U.S. wheat markets may be in for more weakness

Exporters in the European Union, Black Sea region, Australia and 
Canada are all expected to move to protect or gain market share

Reuters/March 2014 Chicago wheat futures started out the 2013 calendar year above $8 a bushel but appear set to end the year struggling to hold above the $6 level. A global pickup in importer demand during late summer had allowed for a brief stint of price strength in early autumn, but the revelation — amid […] Read more


Poor U.S. wheat markets may be in for more weakness

Exporters in the European Union, Black Sea region, Australia and 
Canada are all expected to move to protect or gain market share

Reuters / March 2014 Chicago wheat futures started out the 2013 calendar year above $8 a bushel but appear set to end the year struggling to hold above the $6 level. A global pickup in importer demand during late summer had allowed for a brief stint of price strength in early autumn, but the revelation […] Read more



Log-jam in grain movement has created a sweet spot for long oats

Frustrated oat buyers have been bidding up prices on old oat reserves 
as new oat supplies must wait in line in the grain-movement network

Reuters / Oat futures have been on a tear lately, jumping more than 20 cents a bushel, or 6.6 per cent, since the start of the month on concerns logistical log-jams will stall the movement of new oat supplies for several weeks. That’s seen many traders putting on a long oats versus short Chicago wheat […] Read more



Wheat rally lacks legs and will fizzle in the face of rising supply

U.S. wheat exports are running at their fastest pace in years but predictions of a sustained price rally are overblown

Reuters / The recent uptick in U.S. wheat exports has convinced some traders that prices will buck their recent downward trend and go higher over the coming months. But while firm overseas demand, coupled with the conclusion of the U.S. winter wheat harvest, might well offer support to prices going forward, stiff competition from other […] Read more

Analysis: Speculators, commercials in rare corn position tango

Usually, large speculators and commercial traders take opposing positions in the corn futures and options market, with speculators favoring long exposure while commercials typically sit heavily short in reflection of their naturally long stance in the physical arena. But this year’s critically low levels of domestic corn supplies have forced commercial players to whittle down […] Read more