During the latter part of the weekend of March 7 to 8, crude oil futures vaulted to nearly US$120 per barrel. Flynn said the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf state countries shutting down their production drove up prices.

However, by the mid-afternoon of March 9, those sharp increases moderated somewhat, with the nearby contracts for West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil trading at about US$90 to US$95/barrel.

Why it matters: sharply higher crude oil prices are driving up prices for fertilizer and liquid natural gas

“It shows you how the market is running on fear as well as reality,” Flynn said. “The markets are coming back down on the fact that the military (successes) the U.S. and Israel are having right now.”

Playing into the softening of crude oil’s gains was talk of releasing 300 million to 400 million barrels from the global strategic reserves.

“By talking about it, is easing concerns,” Flynn said.

Two schools of thought

He pointed to two schools of thought regarding current crude oil prices. “You got some people who believe Iran can keep the havoc for week or months. Other people think (Iran) is on its last leg.”

Flynn acknowledged that the Middle East war is not yet over, that it’s still generating good amounts of uncertainty and volatility in the markets.

“But the flip side of it, is it reasonable to believe the whole world is just going to stand by and let Iran shut down that strait for an extended period of time? I don’t think so,” he stated.

The analyst also pointed out that China is very dependent on Middle East oil coming through the Strait of Hormuz. He suggested there could be pressure on Iran to allow tankers heading to China to pass through.

With all that, Flynn expressed a note of caution. “We can’t underestimate Iran’s ability to keep up havoc for a week or two.”

And he noted there isn’t a global shortage of crude oil just yet, rather there are issues in transporting it out of the Persian Gulf.

As for United States demand for crude, Flynn said domestic producers can ramp up their production efforts.

“A lot of them have been cutting back because prices have been low. This might be a catalyst for them to bring out more oil,” he said.

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Reuters reported as such on Feb. 10, noting that deep staff cuts to the department made by the Trump administration have been seen as a main culprit. Reuters said there was growing skepticism in the USDA’s corn acres, which has concerned those who depend on the ups and downs of corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Corn acres and distrust

The crux of the matter is the USDA’s corn estimates from June 2025 compared to those this January. Last month, the department finalized 2025/26 corn acres at 98.8 million planted and 91.3 million harvested. Those numbers are up 8.7 per cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively, from 2024/25.

In June, the USDA estimated 2025/26 planted corn acres at 95.3 million. Harvested acres were projected to be 87.4 million.

It’s a given that adjustments will be made over time, but the scope of the adjustment has the corn industry worried about the quality of the data from the USDA. After all, the USDA is widely considered to be among the best sources for such information, be it from farmer surveys or model-based analysis. In terms of accuracy, the USDA has typically been considered a gold standard.

Lack of willing farmer participation in the USDA surveys is part of the problem. That’s compounded by fewer staff interpreting and processing that data.

There are always going to be skeptics when it comes to such an information gathering process. It’s the level of that distrust that can become disturbing.

Canola harvest

As a reporter, I’ve often compared the numbers coming from Statistics Canada (StatCan) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada to what the USDA says about Canada.

I marked with some amazement how close StatCan and the USDA came to estimating the 2025/26 Canadian canola harvest. StatCan pegged it at 21.80 million tonnes, while the USDA projected 22 million. That told me that StatCan was likely pretty close to the amount of canola.

Unfortunately, the USDA’s reports on other countries have also come under scrutiny — again, because there are far fewer staff to oversee gathering that information.

The USDA now is looking inward. It’s trying to figure out what happened with its corn numbers and how to rebuild the credibility it’s lost.

Let’s hope effective solutions are put in place that keep this treasure trove of information coming.

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The June live cattle contract added 1.600 cents at 196.800 cents per pound.

May feeder cattle futures advanced 3.400 cents at 278.700 cents per pound.

The USDA reported wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Friday afternoon, as choice boxes dipped seven cents at $334.22 per hundredweight and select boxes were down $1.00 at $313.96.

Thursday’s federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 114,000 head, down 9,000 from the previous Thursday.

The June contract for lean hog prices nudged up 0.150 of a cent on Friday at 93.325 cents per pound.

The department reported Thursday’s federally inspected hog slaughter of 488,000 head, up 34,000 from a week ago.

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The June live cattle contract retreated 3.175 cents at 195.200 cents per pound.

May feeder cattle futures dropped 2.900 cents at 275.300 cents per pound.

The USDA reported wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Thursday afternoon, as choice boxes lost $3.57 at $334.29 per hundredweight and select boxes fell $5.65 at $314.96.

The USDA also said beef export sales for the week ended April 3 of 11,855 tonnes, the highest in three weeks.

Wednesday’s federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 123,000 head, down 2,000 from the previous Wednesday.

The June contract for lean hog prices added 1.475 cents on Thursday at 93.175 cents per pound.

The USDA said export sales of pork amounted to 23,854 tonnes, down by more than half from the previous week.

The department reported Wednesday’s federally inspected hog slaughter reached 487,000 head, up by 25,000 from a week ago.

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Trump said the suspension of the levies comes as more than 75 countries were set to negotiate trade with the U.S. or had not taken retaliatory action. However, Trump increased duties on China to 125 per cent from 104 per cent. Meanwhile, China will further raise their tariffs on the U.S. to 84 per cent.

The June live cattle contract advanced 4.750 cents at 198.375 cents per pound.

May feeder cattle futures climbed 6.475 cents at 278.200 cents per pound.

The USDA reported wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Wednesday afternoon, as choice boxes shed 24 cents at $337.86 per hundredweight and select boxes lost $1.45 at $320.61.

Tuesday’s federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 122,000 head, for a slip of 1,000 from the previous Tuesday.

Lean hog prices were higher on Wednesday as the June contract stepped up 1.925 cents at 91.700 cents per pound.

The USDA reported Tuesday’s federally inspected hog slaughter amounted to 488,000 head for an increase of 23,000 from a week ago.

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United States President Donald Trump is determined to add another 50 points to its tariffs on the country’s imports from China. Together with previous and current duties, that would bring the total levies China is facing to 104 per cent. Trump stated tomorrow’s increase would be cancelled, if China cancelled its 34 per cent tariffs on its U.S. imports.

The June live cattle contract dropped 0.550 of a cent at 193.625 cents per pound.

May feeder cattle futures gained 0.450 of a cent at 271.775 cents per pound.

The USDA reported wholesale boxed beef prices were either side of unchanged on Tuesday afternoon, with choice boxes slipping $1.40 at $338.10 per hundredweight and select boxes rose $2.76 at $322.06.

Monday’s federally inspected cattle slaughter tallied 108,000 head, up 4,000 from the previous Monday.

Lean hog prices were mostly lower on Tuesday with the June contract giving up 0.275 of a cent at 89.775 cents per pound.

The USDA reported Monday’s federally inspected hog slaughter was 488,000 head, an increase of 24,000 from a week ago.

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Furthermore, on Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump upped those levies on China from 34 per cent to now 50 per cent should China not drop their 34 per cent levies on the U.S.

The June live cattle contract lost 4.025 cents at 194.175 cents per pound.

May feeder cattle futures dropped 3.600 cents at 271.275 cents per pound.

Despite the above losses, the USDA reported wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Monday afternoon, with choice boxes up $1.05 at $339.50 per hundredweight and select boxes added $2.12 at $319.30.

Last week’s federally inspected cattle slaughter tallied 591,000 head, down 16,000 from the previous week.

The U.S. Federal Trade Commission reported Commitment of Traders data as of April 1 increased the net long in live cattle by 4,885 contracts, bringing it to 142,777. On feeder cattle, the net long stepped back by 763 contracts from a record 33,369.

Lean hog prices were lower on Monday with the June contract down 1.500 cents at 90.050 cents per pound.

The USDA reported last week’s federally inspected hog slaughter came to 2.52 million head, down 40,000 from the previous week.

The Commitment of Traders report said the net long on lean hog futures added 3,963 contracts at 55,326.

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In the fallout from the job losses, AVMA president Sandra Faeh said the association wants to work with Congress and the Trump administration to restore key positions with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. In particular, those that dealt with bird flu, animal and human food safety and other issues. The AVMA cited the leadership and administrative staff fired at the FDA’s Veterinary Laboratory Investigation and Response Network which tests pet food for bird flu.

Since 2022, almost 170 million poultry have been culled in the U.S., which has led to an egg shortage. That has been alleviated somewhat by egg imports from other countries such as Turkey.

In Canada, reports said that massive loss of poultry has resulted in a shortage of broiler chicks in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island as most of the chicks are imported from the U.S.

Then in Bruce County, Ont. a number of wild birds found dead near Lake Huron tested positive for bird flu, Grey Bruce Public Health said. Late last month in Lambton County, the public health service was investigating a second reported case of the disease in birds. This came after it was confirmed to be on a poultry farm in early March.

While bird flu has been reported in all of the provinces, there are concerns that migrating birds could spread the illness much further. A CBC report stressed four key points: bird flu mutating with humans becoming susceptible to it, the level of co-operation from the U.S., any major outbreaks or culling at Canadian poultry operations, and the federal government and provinces bracing for more human infections with concerns about a pandemic.

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The June live cattle contract added 1.975 cents at 207.400 cents per pound.

May feeder cattle futures tacked on 0.775 of a cent at 287.925 cents per pound.

Tuesday’s federally inspected cattle slaughter was 123,000 head, down 16,000 compared to the previous Tuesday.

The USDA reported wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Wednesday afternoon, with choice boxes down $2.32 at $339.90 per hundredweight, while select boxes gave up $3.24 at $318.83.

Lean hog prices were mostly lower on Wednesday. The June contract lost a half cent at 96.675 cents per pound. The USDA reported Tuesday’s federally inspected hog slaughter was 489,000 head, down 10,000 from the previous Tuesday.

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The June live cattle contract added 1.775 cents at 205.425 cents per pound.

May feeder cattle futures advanced 2.650 cents at 287.150 cents per pound.

The USDA reported wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Tuesday afternoon, with choice boxes climbing $6.96 at $342.22 per hundredweight, while select boxes were up $2.06 at $322.07. Monday’s federally inspected was 104,000 head, down 15,000 from the previous Monday.

Lean hog prices were also higher on Tuesday. The June contract rose 1.750 cents at 97.025 cents per pound. The USDA reported Monday’s federally inspected hog slaughter was 469,000 head, down 4,000 from the previous Monday.

The USDA issued its monthly fats and oils report, showing edible tallow production for February at 93.30 million pounds. That’s down four per cent from a year ago, but 31 per cent higher than January’s output.

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