The country’s trade surplus with the world widened to C$1.14 billion ($827.4 million) in September, below analyst forecasts of a surplus of C$1.34 billion, but up from a downwardly revised C$550 million surplus in August.

Exports rose 1.3 per cent in September and were up 1.7 per cent on a volume basis, though prices fell for the fourth consecutive month, Statscan said. Wheat led the gains, rebounding sharply as this year’s strong harvest began to impact exports.

The rise in agricultural exports will bolster Canada’s economic growth in the third quarter and likely into the fourth, Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said in a note.

“While a slower global economy will weigh on trade in some areas, Canadian exports should fare better than in previous instances of weakening global demand,” he said, noting that the war in Ukraine has increased demand for Canadian exports.

Still, there were signs of demand for certain Canadian goods cooling south of the border. The United States is by far Canada’s largest trading partner.

“Exports to the U.S. moderated slightly. Could be an early sign of softening consumer demand in the United States,” said Stuart Bergman, chief economist at Export Development Canada.

“Forestry’s down and that was due to lumber,” he said. “That’s related to housing; that’s not something that’s going to snap back anytime soon.”

Canada’s imports rose 0.4 per cent but were down 0.8 per cent in volume terms. Pharmaceuticals drove the gain, likely bolstered by newly available updated COVID-19 vaccines.

The bulk of Canada’s trade is done in U.S. dollars, which means converted values are higher when the Canadian dollar depreciates against the U.S. dollar, Statscan said.

The Canadian dollar CAD= was trading 0.6 per cent lower at 1.3793 to the greenback, or 72.50 U.S. cents, as the greenback rose sharply against a basket of major currencies.

– Additional reporting by Dale Smith in Ottawa and Fergal Smith in Toronto.

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Demonstrations who at first demanded an end to federal COVID-19 vaccine mandates for cross-border truck drivers began Jan. 28 in the Canadian capital Ottawa and have spilled to Canada-U.S. border crossings at Windsor, Ont. and Coutts, Alta.

Canada sends 75 per cent of its goods exports to the United States, and the Ambassador Bridge between Windsor and Detroit usually handles 8,000 trucks a day, representing a quarter of all cross-border trade, or about $500 million per day.

About $100 million worth of auto parts cross the border each day, with many shipments timed to arrive just as manufacturers need them.

“Twenty-four to 48 hours is critical, and I remain confident that we’re going to resolve this within that critical timeframe,” said Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association, who has been talking with both the province and federal government.

Truckers blocked traffic late on Monday, closing the bridge, Canada’s Border Services Agency (CBSA) said, but Canadian police later tweeted that U.S.-bound lanes had opened. As of Tuesday afternoon, the Canada-bound crossing remained closed.

Trucks were being diverted to The Blue Water Bridge, 109 km north on the border between Sarnia, Ont. and Port Huron, Michigan, which remained open, though with long delays for commercial traffic into Canada.

At Coutts, protesters have disrupted cross-border traffic for more than a week. Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino said on Tuesday he had approved a request from Alberta for additional police.

The intermittent closures have bogged down the flow of U.S. corn to Alberta, Canada’s biggest cattle-producing province, as well as trade in cattle and meat, the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association said in a statement.

Canada trucks cattle for slaughter south, through Montana, but those shipments are being halted, said Jay Bodner, executive vice-president of the Montana Stockgrowers Association. Canadian cattle shippers want to avoid having trucks of live cattle delayed at the border because of concerns about animal welfare, he said.

The Coutts crossing sees $44 million per day in two-way trade, said David MacLean, vice-president of the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters.

Much of Alberta’s manufacturing sector relies on U.S. steel imports to make parts for the oil and gas industry, such as pumps and valves.

“We have uncounted examples of Alberta manufacturers who have equipment sitting on the other side of the border, diverting through North Dakota and Saskatchewan,” MacLean said, adding that the U.S. is also Alberta’s most important export market.

“We can’t sell products sitting on the highway.”

— Reporting for Reuters by Rod Nickel in Winnipeg and Julie Gordon in Ottawa; additional reporting by Amran Abocar in Toronto and Tom Polansek in Chicago.

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Canada, the world’s top exporter of natural Christmas trees, is grappling with a shortage that will likely be exacerbated by historic flooding in British Columbia, where some tree farms are underwater.

A phenomenon known as an atmospheric river dumped a month’s worth of rain on the Pacific province in just two days, destroying roads and bridges and leaving some communities cut off from the rest of Canada.

Canada exports about 2.3 million Christmas trees per year, with some 97 per cent going to the United States. While British Columbia does not export cut Christmas trees, it is a significant domestic supplier. That means shortfalls in that province will have to be made up with supply from elsewhere, leaving fewer Canadian trees for export.

“We can’t ship them because all the roads are closed,” said Arthur Loewen, whose tree farm at Chilliwack has been swamped. “We’re basically shut down until the water recedes.”

Trees already cut and wrapped for wholesale buyers are piled up on wood pallets, surrounded by water, he said. His self-serve fields, where people choose and cut their own Christmas trees, are 75 per cent flooded.

Loewen said that if the waters don’t subside within the week, younger trees could be damaged, hurting future supply. Water levels were starting to drop by Thursday.

The flood impact comes as North America is already seeing more demand than available supply, in part due to people staying closer to home in the pandemic.

“In North America, we’ve seen such an increase in demand for the real tree,” Shirley Brennan, executive director of the Canadian Christmas Trees Association, said. “I’ve been fielding calls at my office since the spring.”

Dwindling production has also hampered supply. Canada had 2,381 Christmas tree farms in 2011, which fell to 1,872 by 2016 and continues to decline as farmers retire. Planted acres fell by 16 per cent in the same period.

Late frosts, hot and dry summers and a labour shortage are adding to the problem, particularly in Ontario, where planted acres were down by 25 per cent from 2011 to 2016.

Dan Laird, who owns a tree farm in Ottawa, said he won’t be selling Christmas trees this year for the first time since 1977, citing the summer weather toll on his crops.

“I just don’t have an abundance of trees,” he said, adding that he’d need to double his staff to open up this holiday season. “I couldn’t get the workers.”

Christmas tree buyers can expect less selection than in the past and should expect to pay 10-15 per cent more this year, said Quebec farmer Larry Downey.

— Reporting for Reuters by Julie Gordon in Ottawa; additional reporting by Allison Lampert in Montreal.

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The economy expanded by 0.4 percent in August, missing estimates, and looked set to show no growth in September, when supply chain issues crimped auto exports and retail sales declined, Statistics Canada said.

The agriculture sector, hit hard by hot and dry conditions, is also weighing on economic activity.

Third quarter annualized GDP rose by just 1.9 percent, Statscan said in a flash estimate, much less than the 5.5 percent forecast by the Bank of Canada on Wednesday, when it signaled a rate hike could come as soon as April 2022.

Even though the central bank and Statistics Canada use slightly different ways of measuring GDP, analysts said the third quarter projections made an early hike less likely.

“This reduces the chance of the Bank hiking interest rates as soon as the second quarter next year,” said Stephen Brown, senior Canada economist at Capital Economics. Economic activity, which remains about 1 percent below pre-pandemic levels, is unlikely to close that gap until early 2022, he added.

Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets, noted the preliminary third quarter data revealed the impacts of global supply chain difficulties on the ability of the goods sector to meet orders.

“The supply bottlenecks are both raising inflation and impeding growth at the same time,” he said in a note, adding Canada could enjoy stronger growth and softer inflation in 2022 if the challenges eased.

The Bank of Canada expects inflation, which touched an 18-year high at 4.4 percent in September, to rise further this year and then average 3.4 percent in 2022, above its 1-3 percent control range.

The Canadian dollar was trading 0.4 percent lower at 1.2387 to the greenback, or 80.73 U.S. cents. Investors continued to price in a first rate hike in March.

The August gain of 0.4 percent was behind analyst estimates of 0.7 percent, as agriculture weighed. Overall, 15 of 20 industrial sectors posted increases, with services-producing industries up by 0.6 percent while goods-producing industries declined 0.1 percent.

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Viterra is the second canola exporter to have its registration cancelled, after Beijing halted shipments from top exporter Richardson International earlier this month.

An industry group said last week that Chinese importers have stopped buying any oilseed from Canada, though Chinese imports of Canadian canola oil and meal have not been impacted.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told reporters on Tuesday that his government was trying to resolve the issue and considering sending a high-level delegation to China to address the country’s safety concerns.

“We are taking this very seriously,” he said in Winnipeg, noting Canada’s relationship with China has been fraught in recent months.

“We have seen a certain amount of challenges in our relationship with China over diplomatic issues,” he said.

Canada and China have been locked in a trade and political dispute since the chief financial officer of Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies was arrested in Vancouver late last year on a U.S. extradition request.

The ban on Viterra and its related companies was announced by China’s General Administration of Customs on its website and was effective immediately. Viterra is owned by Glencore’s agricultural arm.

In its statement on Tuesday, Chinese customs said the ports of Dalian and Nanning had once again detected several pests in samples taken from cargoes shipped by Viterra.

In order to prevent the introduction of harmful organisms, it cancelled the firm’s export registration, it said, adding that it will continue to strengthen inspections on all canola imports.

A spokesman for the Canola Council of Canada said the industry group is confident in the quality of Canadian canola seed exports, noting no other global customers have expressed concerns.

“Today (the Chinese) are alleging another new pest of concern. We are quite perplexed. How can the quality of our canola suddenly change?” said Brian Innes, vice-president for public affairs with the Canola Council.

Viterra, in a statement Tuesday, confirmed the ban and said it’s working with the federal government and Canola Council to gather more information.

“All of our export products are tested to ensure they meet specific import standards,” the company said. “We take quality concerns seriously and support a sound, science based approach in the testing of our exports.”

China’s customs authority said earlier this month it had found hazardous pests in canola imports from Canada and revoked the export registration of Richardson International.

Richardson has said its canola meets regulatory requirements.

China accounts for about 40 per cent of Canada’s canola seed, oil and meal exports, according to the Canola Council, with seed exports to China worth some $2.7 billion a year.

— Reporting for Reuters by Dominique Patton in Beijing and Julie Gordon in Ottawa. Includes files from Allan Dawson of the Manitoba Co-operator.

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The day was historic for the country as Canadian adults can now legally smoke recreational marijuana after nearly a century-long ban. But provinces and businesses have struggled to prepare, and legalization was pushed back from a July start to enable setting up distribution and sales networks.

Despite the early problems, the move is a political win for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who vowed to legalize cannabis during his 2015 election campaign. The pledge was aimed at taking profits away from organized crime and regulating the production, distribution and consumption of a product that millions of Canadians consume illegally.

“The prohibition on marijuana has not worked in this country,” Trudeau told reporters in Ottawa. “Young Canadians have the highest usage of marijuana anywhere in the world… criminal organizations and street gangs make over $6 billion a year on the sale of marijuana across the country… That needs to stop and that’s exactly what we have done.”

The federal government and many provinces have been cautious, starting with limited stores and products, including no edible cannabis products for a year, and tight control over supply.

In many parts of the country, particularly those with few stores, much of the legal sales action was online, as consumers flocked to websites run by provincial governments and licensed retailers to buy legally, despite a few days’ wait for delivery and extra charges.

The online stores using Shopify’s e-commerce software across the country were processing more than 100 orders a minute, and had millions of visitors in the first 12 hours, an external spokeswoman said. Some websites ran out of popular products.

“What changes is that now I can use it openly, without people coming and challenging my right to use it,” said Peter Hasek, a music teacher who grows the plant at home and was attending an end-of-prohibition party at a downtown Toronto coffee shop.

To him, that is more important than access to legal product, he said.

Not your typical stoners

Ontario, home to Canada’s most populous city, Toronto, will have no stores until April 2019 due to a change in the province’s retail model by a new provincial government.

British Columbia will have both private and government stores, but has yet to issue any private licenses. In Vancouver, the City Cannabis Co. dispensary, which is licensed by the city and awaiting provincial retail approval, was still operating, despite a government suggestion earlier this week that existing “gray market” shops close until fully licensed.

Consultants in pressed black aprons served a mostly older clientele browsing varieties of dried cannabis and bottles of tinctures.

“Most of our customers are professionals, not your typical stoners,” said general manager Alex Orantes.

In Kamloops, at British Columbia’s only legal shop open and run by the government, a line started forming at 6 a.m., CBC reported.

Marijuana enthusiasts in St. John’s, N.L. kicked off legal sales at midnight, with over 100 people lining up outside a Tweed-branded store owned by Canopy Growth Corp .

Canopy CEO Bruce Linton rang in the first sales to residents Ian Power and Nikki Rose.

Shares of Canadian cannabis companies retreated on Wednesday after rallying in the run-up to legalization. Canopy and Aurora Cannabis, the world’s two biggest cannabis producers, closed down 4.3 per cent and 2.9 per cent, respectively, after touching all-time highs on Tuesday.

Even in provinces with more shops, many shelves are expected to soon be empty because of a shortage of product. A study by the University of Waterloo and the C.D. Howe Institute economic policy think tank found legal supply will satisfy less than 60 per cent of demand in the early months, although that will change as production increases.

Police ‘not champing at the bit’

Separately, Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale on Wednesday said the government would waive the fee and waiting period when people who have been convicted of possession of up to 30 grams of marijuana apply for pardons, after they’ve served their sentences. The legislation will be introduced by the end of the year, he said.

Law enforcement of those driving under the influence of marijuana could be patchy. In August, Canada approved a device to detect levels of tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), the psychoactive element in cannabis, in a driver’s saliva.

But many large police departments will forego the $5,000 device, Adam Palmer, president of the Canadian Association of Chiefs of Police, told reporters on Monday.

Draeger Safety Canada, which makes the device, has shipped some units, but a two-week federal funding delay has put further orders on hold. It expects demand for between 300 and 500 units through March, managing director Rob Clark said.

Canada has invested $274 million to enforce new laws and some provinces have allocated their own funding, but Palmer said police will not crack down on illegal stores right away.

“When the law changes on the 17th, we’re not going to see a big change overnight,” Palmer said. “Police aren’t … champing at the bit to go out and start raiding stores.”

— Reporting for Reuters by Nichola Saminather in Toronto and Julie Gordon in Vancouver; additional reporting by Chris Wattie in St. John’s, Rod Nickel in Winnipeg and David Ljunggren in Ottawa.

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Senior officials from both sides are due to meet in Washington on Wednesday in a bid to settle major differences amid pressure from Washington for a quick settlement.

“There are a number of things we absolutely must see in a renegotiated NAFTA,” Trudeau told reporters in the Pacific province of British Columbia.

“No NAFTA is better than a bad NAFTA deal for Canadians and that’s what we are going to stay with.”

U.S. President Donald Trump — who signed a NAFTA side deal with Mexico last week — has threatened to impose auto tariffs on Canada or exclude it from the three-nation pact unless an agreement can be struck quickly.

Trudeau made clear, however, he would insist on keeping the so-called Chapter 19 dispute-resolution mechanism that Washington wants to scrap.

“We will not sign a deal that is bad for Canadians, and quiet frankly, not having a Chapter 19 to ensure the rules are followed would be bad for Canadians,” he said.

He also said existing protections that ban U.S. media firms from buying Canadian cultural industries such as television stations and newspapers must be maintained.

— Reporting for Reuters by Julie Gordon; writing by David Ljunggren.

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What is Chapter 19?

Chapter 19 gives the United States, Canada and Mexico the right to challenge each others’ anti-dumping and countervailing duty decisions in front of an expert panel with members from both countries involved in a dispute.

Anti-dumping cases are used to block imports on the basis that the exporting country is not trading fairly, for example by subsidizing a domestic industry so it can set low prices.

Why have a dispute mechanism in NAFTA?

When NAFTA and the earlier Canadian-U.S. Free Trade Agreement were negotiated, Canada pushed the United States to give up the right to bring anti-dumping cases against its neighbours completely, but the United States refused.

Chapter 19 was a compromise. During a speech in Ottawa last year, Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland reminded her audience that Canada had walked out of trade talks with the United States in 1987 over the issue.

Who has benefited from Chapter 19?

The system has not been used heavily in the last 10 years. The best known cases, and all of the currently active cases that involve Canada, are about softwood lumber. Active cases between Mexico and the United States cover U.S. fertilizer, and steel pipe and washing machines made in Mexico.

In the mid-2000s, in the midst of the last round of softwood lumber disputes, Chapter 19 panels repeatedly ruled against the U.S., before the Canadian government cut a deal that temporarily ended the dispute.

“Canada’s negotiating position at the very least was significantly strengthened by the determinations it was getting under the Chapter 19 process,” said Matthew Kronby, a trade lawyer with Borden Ladner Gervais in Toronto.

Food-related Chapter 19 disputes involving Canada related to U.S. exports of refined sugar, beer, malt beverages and baby foods and Canadian exports of salmon and herring. One farming-related Chapter 19 case involved a 1994-95 dispute over U.S. exports of synthetic baler twine.

Are there alternatives to Chapter 19?

Anti-dumping or countervailing duties can be challenged in the courts of the country imposing the duties.

Another option is the World Trade Organization, whose 164 members have the right to challenge each other over unwarranted trade restrictions, illegal subsidies and other unfair practices. But Kronby said Chapter 19 panels have the effective power of a domestic court, while the WTO does not, which makes its decisions easier to ignore.

The United States has criticized the WTO dispute settlement process and is currently blocking appointments and reappointments of judges. Because three judges are needed on each appeal, the system looks set to break down when two judges’ terms expire in December 2019.

Are there reasons for Canada to compromise?

While Canada has stood firm on Chapter 19 so far, giving up the dispute mechanism would not hurt as much as compromising on the dairy industry, which is the other contentious issue in the talks. Canada’s 11,280 dairy farmers form one of the country’s most influential political lobbies.

“We don’t use it as much as people think, it’s not as effective as people think,” said Toronto-based trade lawyer Mark Warner, who argues that Chapter 19 may not be worth fighting for. “The question is, Do we have 25 per cent tariffs on our cars and no NAFTA in order to make a point about Chapter 19?”

Others say it is more important than ever.

“Look at the amount of protectionist measures introduced by the U.S. in the last couple years,” said Brian Kingston, a vice-president at the Business Council of Canada. “If this is a trend that is only going to get worse, then Canada needs a mechanism to respond.”

— Reporting for Reuters by Julie Gordon in Washington, D.C. and Allison Martell in Toronto; additional reporting by Tom Miles in Geneva. Includes files from Glacier FarmMedia Network staff.

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U.S. and Canadian trade officials set plans to resume their talks on Wednesday with the aim of getting a deal all three nations could sign.

After four intensive days of talks in Washington between Canada and the U.S., the biggest sticking points were familiar ones: U.S. demands for more access to Canada’s closed dairy market and Canadian insistence that a trade dispute settlement system be maintained, not scrapped as Washington wants.

“For Canada, the focus is on getting a good deal, and once we have a good deal for Canada, we’ll be done,” the country’s foreign minister, Chrystia Freeland, told a news conference.

All three countries have stressed the importance of NAFTA, which underpins US$1.2 trillion in regional trade. A bilateral deal announced by the U.S. and Mexico on Monday had paved the way for Canada to rejoin the talks this week.

But by Friday the sentiment turned, partly on Trump’s explosive off-the-record remarks made to Bloomberg News that any trade deal with Canada would be “totally on our terms.” He later confirmed the comments, which the Toronto Star first reported.

“At least Canada knows where I stand,” Trump later said on Twitter.

Trump notified Congress that he intends to sign the trade pact by the end of November. Text of the deal will be published by around Oct. 1.

Ottawa has stood firm against signing “just any deal.”

Some U.S. lawmakers and business groups expressed concern about Canada’s not yet being not yet part of the agreement.

“Anything other than a trilateral agreement won’t win Congressional approval and would lose business support,” the chief executive of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Thomas Donohue, said in a statement.

The Canadian dollar weakened to C$1.3081 to the U.S. dollar after news of the talks’ lack of a result first broke. Canadian stocks remained 0.5 per cent lower. Global equities were also down following the hawkish turn in Trump’s comments on trade.

Following a meeting with Freeland, Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said he was confident the U.S. and Canada would reach an agreement.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has refused to budge despite repeated efforts by Freeland to offer some concessions on dairy to maintain the independent trade dispute resolution mechanism under Chapter 19 of NAFTA, The Globe and Mail reported on Friday.

However, a USTR spokeswoman said Canada had made no concessions on agriculture, which includes dairy, but said that negotiations continued.

Trump argues that Canada’s hefty dairy tariffs are hurting U.S. farmers, an important political base for his Republican party. But dairy farmers have great political clout in Canada, too, and concessions could hurt the ruling Liberals ahead of a 2019 federal election.

At a speech in North Carolina on Friday Trump took another swipe at Canada. “I love Canada, but they’ve taken advantage of our country for many years,” he said.

–– Reporting for Reuters by Julie Gordon and Sharay Angulo in Washington and Allison Martell in Toronto; additional reporting by David Lawder in Washington, Veronica Gomez in Mexico City and Allison Lampert in Montreal; writing by Denny Thomas.

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Despite some contentious issues still on the table, the increasingly positive tone contrasted with U.S. President Donald Trump’s harsh criticism of Canada in recent weeks, raising hopes that the year-long talks on the North American Free Trade Agreement will conclude soon with a trilateral deal.

“Canada’s going to make a deal at some point. It may be by Friday or it may be within a period of time,” U.S. President Donald Trump told Bloomberg Television. “I think we’re close to a deal.”

Trilateral talks were already underway at the technical level and Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo was expected to soon rejoin talks with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, possibly later on Thursday, people familiar with the process said.

Negotiations entered a crucial phase this week after the U.S. and Mexico announced a bilateral deal on Monday, paving the way for Canada to rejoin talks to modernize the 24-year-old accord that underpins over US$1 trillion in annual trade.

The NAFTA deal that is taking shape would likely strengthen North America as a manufacturing base by making it more costly for automakers to import a large share of vehicle parts from outside the region. The automotive content provisions, the most contentious topic, could accelerate a shift of parts-making away from China.

A new chapter governing the digital economy, along with stronger intellectual property, labor and environmental standards could also work to the benefit of U.S. companies, helping Trump to fulfill his campaign promise of creating more American jobs.

Trump has set a Friday deadline for the three countries to reach an agreement, which would allow Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto to sign it before he leaves office at the end of November. Under U.S. law, Trump must wait 90 days before signing the pact.

The U.S. president has warned he could try to proceed with a deal with Mexico alone and levy tariffs on Canadian-made cars if Ottawa does not come on board, although U.S. lawmakers have said ratifying a bilateral deal would not be easy.

Dairy, dispute settlement

One sticking point for Canada is the U.S. effort to dump the Chapter 19 dispute-resolution mechanism that hinders the United States from pursuing anti-dumping and anti-subsidy cases. Lighthizer said on Monday that Mexico had agreed to eliminate the mechanism.

Trump also wants a NAFTA deal that eliminates dairy tariffs of up to 300 per cent that he argues are hurting U.S. farmers, an important political base for Republicans.

But any concessions to Washington by Ottawa is likely to upset Canadian dairy farmers, who have an outsized influence in Canadian politics, with their concentration in the provinces of Ontario and Quebec.

“Ultimately, we’ve got huge issues that are still to be resolved,” said Jerry Dias, head of Canada’s influential Unifor labour union. “Either we’re going to be trading partners or we’re going to fight.”

— Reporting for Reuters by Julie Gordon and Sharay Angulo; additional reporting by David Lawder; writing by Denny Thomas and David Lawder.

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