Soybean seedings, meanwhile, are expected to jump as some growers shift acres away from corn and wheat, which require more costly fertilizer, they said.

Farmers are entering the critical spring planting season under a cloud of uncertainty as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran disrupts global trade, causing fertilizer and diesel costs to spike. The long-term U.S. trade relationship with China also remains unclear amid the ongoing trade war launched by President Donald Trump’s administration with the top soy importer.

U.S. net farm income

Meanwhile, U.S. net farm income is forecast to turn lower this year despite near-record government payments, marking the fourth straight year of crop producers facing tight margins, high production costs and low commodity prices.

The Trump administration is in the process of distributing $12 billion (C$16.6 billion) in aid to U.S. farmers. As the repercussions of the war rattle the broader economy, farm groups have urged Congress to approve additional aid.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is due to release its annual prospective plantings report on Tuesday, its first survey-based crop acreage estimate of the year. Analysts cautioned that the estimates, gleaned from farmer surveys conducted in the first half of March, could not fully account for disruptions and price impacts caused by the war, which began when the United States and Israel launched airstrikes across Iran on February 28.

“This particular planting intentions report, right out of the gates, is going to be viewed somewhat skeptically by the trade just because of the timing of the survey with the start of the war and how things have changed in terms of costs,” said Terry Linn, analyst with Linn & Associates in Chicago.

Analysts polled by Reuters, on average, projected corn plantings to drop to 94.371 million acres, down from 98.788 million acres in 2025, which was the most since 1936. Soybean seedings were seen at 85.549 million acres, up from 81.215 million a year ago.

Wheat plantings expected to fall

Plantings of spring wheat, grown in the northern Plains, are forecast to drop to 9.843 million acres, down from 9.990 million last year and the lowest since 1970. Prices for the high-protein grain have slumped since a record Canadian harvest last year.

Farmers in the U.S. Midwest farm belt normally rotate their fields with corn one year and soybeans the next, but profit projections and input costs can prompt farmers to deviate from their crop rotations in some fields.

“The fertilizer cost and fertilizer availability are the main drivers right now,” said Rich Nelson, chief strategist with Allendale. “But I would point out that we have questions about whether the USDA’s report will show the true story.”

Prices for urea fertilizer are up about 40 per cent since the start of the war while costs for anhydrous ammonia are up nearly 20 per cent, according to a report this week from economists at the University of Illinois.

“Given that nitrogen fertilizers are not used intensively on soybeans, higher nitrogen prices could also lead to a shift towards more soybean acres and fewer corn acres,” they said.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins this month estimated that about 75 per cent of farmers already had their fertilizer needs booked.

Hunt for alternatives

The hunt is on for alternatives that would insulate farmers from price volatility tied to natural gas in fertilizer markets, and be less carbon-intensive.

While natural gas powers the process of synthesizing most widely used ammonia fertilizers, there are efforts to power more ammonia production with renewable energy.

In Minnesota for example, a coalition of agriculture and conservation organizations launched the Minnesota Made Ammonia project on March 5 to build local ammonia production facilities in Minnesota that use renewable energy, according to a statement from the group.

Outside of the heart of the Midwest corn and soybean belt, farmers have more planting options, including hard red spring wheat, durum wheat, canola and cotton, analysts said.

Demand for biofuels swells

In North Dakota, the top spring wheat state and a key supplier of soybeans that are shipped to China via Pacific Northwest ports, rising fertilizer costs and trade uncertainty are likely to prompt some farmers to choose corn or canola over soybeans and wheat, analysts said.

The price of urea fertilizer has jumped at least $200 per ton since the start of the war, according to Jim Peterson, executive director of the North Dakota Wheat Commission.

“On a 50 bushel (per acre) wheat yield, you need another 40 or 50 cents a bushel to just cover that cost,” Peterson said.

Canola, grown in the northern Plains and in Canada, is also a viable option despite high fertilizer costs due to strong demand for vegetable oil for biofuel production. Demand for biofuels has swelled amid rising prices for petroleum-based fuels.

In the Delta, low cotton prices and costly inputs are likely to lead to the lowest cotton plantings in a decade as farmers may choose more profitable soybeans instead.

“If we go through the rest of March and into April with soybeans looking this much stronger than cotton, then, yes, we’ll see more acres move from cotton to soybeans,” said Barry Bean, president of Bean & Bean Cotton Company.

1 acre = 0.405 hectares

— Additional reporting by Ed White in Winnipeg, Renee Hickman in Chicago and Anmol Choubey in Bangalore

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The two-day meeting this week in Arlington, Virginia, focused on a challenging farm economy that could see further headwinds after the U.S. Supreme Court on Friday struck down Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs that he pursued under a law meant for use in national emergencies. The ruling handed a stinging defeat to the Republican president, with major implications for the global economy and potential ripple effects on the U.S. farm sector.

Trump has since vowed to levy a global 10 per cent tariff using other trade powers, but details are scant.

What USDA is doing

• The Farmer Bridge Assistance program is expected to distribute $11 billion in one-time payments to farmers. It’s a per-acre rate for those who planted one of the 19 commodity crops identified as being eligible for the program. Another $1 billion is slated for specialty crop producers.
• USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said Friday that the agency will open the application process ahead of schedule on Monday.
• In December, Rollins said farmers who qualify could expect “payments in their bank accounts” by February 28 – six days after applications open.
• “These resources will help carry producers into the next season, truly a bridge, as purchase commitments and new trade deals take effect and input costs continue to decline,” Rollins told a packed ballroom at the Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia on Friday.
• Rollins did not immediately respond to questions about how USDA will process an expected flood of applications.
• Deep staffing cuts across the federal government last year, including at USDA’s Farm Service Agency offices in rural America, have slowed farmer access to many government services.
• The federal payments will not fully compensate farmers for financial losses that have topped $30 billion in recent years, economists and industry groups said.
• The aid will act as “a bridge until the improvements in the farm bill programs are realized on the farm,” John Newton, vice president of public policy and economic analysis at the American Farm Bureau Federation, told Reuters on the sidelines of the conference.
• Earlier this month, USDA had forecast that U.S. net farm income would fall 0.7 per cent this year, despite near-record government payments expected to account for nearly 29 per cent of producers’ bottom line.
• USDA said it expects prices paid to farmers for corn, soybeans and wheat to rise slightly in the 2026/27 season, though prices remain well below recent highs.
• Average prices were projected at $4.20 a bushel for corn, $10.30 for soybeans and $5.00 for wheat — 10 cents higher than the current season and well below 2022/23 levels, USDA data showed.
• USDA Chief Economist Justin Benavidez said ad hoc farm aid, which has reached near-historic levels in recent years, has helped keep farmers in business during the downturn but likely supported input prices.

— Reporting by Karl Plume in Arlington, Virginia, and P.J. Huffstutter in Chicago

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WHY IT MATTERS: The U.S. cattle herd is at its lowest level in nearly 75 years, pushing up prices and challenging packers’ margins.

The Cargill Meat Solutions facility will stop production around mid-April and fully close around the end of May, a notice filed by Cargill with the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development said. The plant specializes in fresh beef, ground beef, and value-added products but does not slaughter cattle.

Cargill said the move was made “to better align our portfolio with current customer demand and prioritize investments,” adding that ground beef production will shift to its other North American facilities with no impact on its consumer contracts. The company operates seven other facilities in the state and some of the employees affected are expected to move to one in nearby Butler, Wisconsin.

The Milwaukee plant closure comes after rival meatpackers JBS and Tyson Foods announced they were shuttering beef plants late last year.

Beef prices are hovering near record highs due to strong demand and reduced supply. U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday signed a proclamation to hike low-tariff imports of Argentine beef.

U.S. beef packers have been losing money as tight supplies of cattle forced them to pay more for the livestock they slaughter and process into hamburgers and steaks.

The U.S. cattle herd has dropped to the lowest level in nearly 75 years due to persistent drought that dried up grazing pastures. A halt on U.S. imports of Mexican cattle tightened supplies further, as Washington seeks to keep out New World screwworm, a flesh-eating parasite.

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The Missouri-based company reported both its weakest fourth quarter and lowest annual adjusted profit since 2019.

Bunge shares were down five per cent in premarket trading after soaring more than 30 per cent since the start of the year.

A global grains glut has weighed on crop prices, thinned processing and eroded profitability in the agribusiness sector, affecting Bunge and peers such as ADM and Cargill. Trade turmoil triggered by U.S. President Trump’s tariff wars and uncertainty over biofuels policies further dragged on earnings as customers became more cautious due to market uncertainty, reluctant to book deals beyond the near-term.

Bunge reported adjusted earnings of $1.99 per share (C$2.72) for the quarter ended December 31, down from $2.13 a year earlier, but above the consensus analyst estimate of $1.81, according to data compiled by LSEG. Full-year 2025 adjusted profit fell to $7.57 a share (C$10.34), from $9.19 a year earlier.

The company forecast 2026 adjusted earnings per share between $7.50 and $8.00 (C$10.25 to $10.93), below Wall Street expectations of $8.71.

Disruptions, delays drag profits

Bunge’s expanded grain handling and processing capacity following its merger with Viterra in mid-2025 has boosted volumes and revenue, but trade disruptions and delays in finalizing biofuels policies have dragged on profitability, particularly in the United States.

Bunge CEO Greg Heckman said “forward visibility remains limited amid dynamic market conditions.”

The U.S. Treasury Department on Tuesday published proposed rules governing how biofuel makers can access larger tax credits for producing green fuels. The rules would incentivize use of feedstocks from North American oilseed crops like soy and canola and include tweaks to methodology for calculating the carbon intensity of feedstocks.

The market is still awaiting final rules on biofuel blending quotas, expected next month. They are expected to keep quotas close to an initial proposal boosting volumes while dropping a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and feedstocks.

Rival grain trader Archer-Daniels-Midland, whose operations are more concentrated in the U.S., forecast 2026 adjusted profit below analysts’ expectations on Tuesday due to the deferral of U.S. biofuel policy.

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Its shares were down 4.25 per cent in premarket trading.

Chicago-based ADM reported its weakest fourth-quarter adjusted profit since 2019 as slumping soybean processing margins in North and South America and poor U.S. soybean exports dented earnings for its Agricultural Services and Oilseeds business, its largest segment.

Low prices erode profits

A global grains glut that has dragged down prices of staple crops like corn and soybeans to near multi-year lows has eroded profits for ADM and agribusiness peers like Bunge and Cargill. U.S. biofuel policy delays and trade turmoil stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff wars created further pressure on the global grains merchants.

The downbeat outlook comes as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Justice Department concluded investigations into whether ADM had inflated the performance of a key business segment. ADM agreed to pay a $40 million civil penalty to settle SEC charges while the DOJ closed its criminal investigation, drawing a line under a years-long scandal that forced the company to twice revise its financial reports.

ADM reported adjusted earnings of 87 cents per share for the quarter ended December 31, down from $1.14 a share a year earlier but above the consensus analyst estimate of 80 cents, according to data compiled by LSEG.

CEO Juan Luciano said operating profit for 2025 was affected by a turbulent global trade landscape and ongoing uncertainty around U.S. biofuel policy. Resolutions “should support a more constructive operating environment for us in 2026,” he added.

Biofuel policy delay creates caution

The U.S. government has been slow to finalize some biofuels policies, a delay that has slowed use of feedstocks like the soybean oil produced at ADM processing plants.

ADM reported adjusted earnings for 2025 of $3.43 per share. Its 2026 adjusted earnings outlook of $3.60 to $4.25 per share hinged on those biofuel policies and whether slumping soy processing margins improve. The midpoint is less than analysts’ average estimate of $4.24 apiece, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Last month, Reuters reported that the Trump administration plans to finalize long-delayed 2026 biofuel blending quotas by early March, keeping them close to its initial proposal while dropping a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and feedstocks.

The delays have led biofuel makers and the suppliers of feedstocks like ADM to hold back on deals and delay spending decisions that shape output and margins.

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ADM reached the settlement without admitting or denying any wrongdoing, and said the Justice Department, which had been conducting its own probe, has closed its investigation without bringing criminal charges.

The agreement draws a line under a years-long scandal that forced the company, one of the world’s largest agricultural traders and processors, to twice revise its financial reports, and sparked heavy share losses and shareholder lawsuits.

WHY IT MATTERS: ADM is one of the world’s largest agricultural traders and processors.

The SEC on Tuesday separately sued ADM’s former Chief Financial Officer Vikram Luthar for his role in the allegedly fraudulent adjustments and filed settled charges against two other top executives.

The SEC settlement includes charges brought against former Nutrition business unit President Vince Macciocchi and Ray Young, who was ADM’s CFO until 2022. Macciocchi has agreed to pay more than $529,000 in fines and other fees, while Young will pay more than $650,000.

The SEC complaint against Luthar, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, accuses him of breaking federal securities laws by helping ADM mislead investors and by failing to properly report and account for the company’s activities.

Regulators allege he played a role in fraudulent conduct, helped ADM violate rules and benefitted from the fraud. The SEC is seeking to bar Luthar from serving as an officer or director of a public company, and force him to pay a penalty and other fees.

Luthar’s attorney Junaid Zubairi called the allegations “meritless” and said ADM’s own investigation found that Luthar had not acted improperly.

A lawyer for ADM declined to comment further. A lawyer for Macciocchi also declined to comment and a lawyer for Young did not respond immediately to a request for comment.

The U.S. Attorney’s Office in Manhattan did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the closing of the criminal case.

In a statement on the company’s website, CEO Juan Luciano said the company is pleased to put the matter behind them and has taken “extensive actions” to enhance internal controls.

ADM shares were near unchanged in after-hours trading on Tuesday.

Probe centred on nutrition unit

Federal prosecutors opened a probe in early 2024 into accounting issues at ADM tied to the performance of its highly touted “Nutrition” unit, Reuters previously reported. The government investigations as well as an internal inquiry led to the exit of Luthar.

The ADM investigation involved internal company transactions that inaccurately reported financial results for the “Nutrition” unit, which was launched in 2018 to accelerate development of high-value specialty ingredients for the food, beverage and animal feed industries.

ADM cut a combined $228 million from Nutrition’s operating profit between 2018 and 2023 as a result of the revisions, company filings show.

News of the accounting irregularities broke in early 2024, sending ADM shares plummeting and heaping pressure on top executives, including Luciano, as top executive compensation had been tied to growth in the Nutrition unit.

The investigation into “intersegment” transactions between the company’s business segments focused on whether ADM deliberately boosted Nutrition’s performance by providing it with below-cost goods from other company units.

The SEC considered ADM’s cooperation in accepting the settlement offer, the regulator said in a statement.

Specifically, the company conducted an internal investigation, voluntarily reported its findings to agency staff, and provided the staff with additional analyses from an outside accounting expert.

ADM’s remedial measures included implementing new internal accounting controls around intersegment transactions, amending its policies and procedures, and testing the effectiveness of its new controls, among other things, the SEC said.

— Additional reporting by Jonathan Stempel and Jasper Ward in Washington and P.J. Huffstutter in Chicago

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Soybeans touched a two-and-a-half-month low after the USDA on Monday trimmed its U.S. export view and raised its harvest estimate for rival supplier Brazil, while wheat futures followed corn and soybeans lower.

The USDA caught the corn market wrong-footed by increasing its estimate of the 2025 U.S. harvest to a new record, contrary to expectations of a downward revision, while also pegging U.S. quarterly stocks of the cereal at their largest ever.

Losses on Tuesday were tempered by bargain-buying and technical support, and as traders turned their focus to weather in Brazil, where farmers will soon be planting their large second corn crop.

“For corn, this was a rip-the-Band-Aid-off event and these are probably the worst numbers we’re going to see. If anything, there is some risk on South American weather,” said Ted Seifried, chief market strategist at Zaner Group.

“But for soybeans, I don’t feel like it’s the same sort of mentality,” he said.

Brazil’s record-large harvest is likely to undercut demand for U.S. soy in the coming months, and it remains unclear if a recent surge in U.S. purchases by China will continue after a 12-million-metric-ton buying target is achieved.

Chicago Board of Trade March corn CH26 fell 1-3/4 cents to $4.19-3/4 a bushel after earlier touching the lowest point for a most-active contract Cv1 since October 16. March soybeans SH26 were down 10-1/4 cents at $10.38-3/4 a bushel, the lowest price since October 23. CBOT March wheat WH26 was down 3/4 cent at $5.10-1/2 a bushel.

-Additional reporting by Daphne Zhang in Beijing, Naveen Thukral in Singapore and Gus Trompiz in Paris

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A seventh U.S. soybean cargo was loaded over the past weekend and is already en route to China, the first such shipment since May.

U.S. farmers and grain traders have been waiting for shipments to begin after trade talks between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea in late October and, according to the White House, a vow by Beijing to buy 12 million metric tons by the end of the year. Beijing has not confirmed details from that meeting, including any vows to purchase sizable volumes of U.S. soy.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said last month that the Trump administration expects to sign a deal with China by this week. She said on Tuesday that the administration would unveil an aid package next week for farmers hurt by low crop prices and trade turmoil.

Chinese importers booked nearly 2 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans last month for shipment in the 2025/26 marketing year that ends in August 2026, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data, although only minimal purchases have been confirmed since then. Total Chinese purchases remain well short of the volumes seen before the trade war. China’s absence from the market had pushed down the price of soybean futures to near five-year lows.

The cargo vessel Tokugawa was being loaded with soybeans on Tuesday, and the vessel Katagalan Brave was set to load in the coming days, according to shipping data. Four others – RB Eden, Hua Xing Hai, Donna Alexandra and SSI Dominion – were due to arrive for loading over the next two weeks.

U.S. sorghum shipments to China have also restarted for the first time since March. One cargo vessel, the Bungo Queen, is currently loading at a Texas Gulf Coast terminal, and a second ship, the YM Navigator, is due to load late next week at a terminal in the Pacific Northwest, shipping data showed.

— Reporting by Karl Plume in Chicago

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China is buying U.S. soybeans to meet the pledges it made to Washington at the trade summit in Busan, South Korea, even though the cargoes are priced higher than rival Brazilian offers, two Asia-based traders said.

“This bigger round of U.S. soybean buying is no longer a goodwill gesture but a manifestation of China’s commitment to the Busan terms,” said a Singapore-based trader.

China’s state-owned grain trader COFCO bought at least 840,000 metric tons for shipment in December and January, the two traders with knowledge of the deals told Reuters.

Eight of the vessels were for shipment in December and January from U.S. Gulf Coast terminals, while the rest were for shipment in January from Pacific Northwest ports, one trader said. A second trader estimated around 75 per cent of the sales were for Gulf shipment, with the remainder from the Pacific Northwest ports.

The sales total may ultimately be larger if more deals are finalized, traders said.

COFCO did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

All four traders declined to be named due to the market sensitivity of the issue.

The White House said China had agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year, but only a small volume of sales had occurred before Monday. China imported nearly 27 million tons of U.S. soy last year, according to U.S. government data.

Expensive U.S. beans a ‘political move’

Asian traders estimated COFCO paid $2.35-$2.40 per bushel over the January Chicago contract for shipments from Gulf terminals and a premium of $2.15-$2.20 per bushel from Pacific Northwest ports, well above the prices for Brazilian new-crop soybeans, which are around $1.25 per bushel over CBOT futures.

“It is a political move, as prices being paid by COFCO are much higher than Brazilian prices,” said a trader at a company which runs soybean processing plants in China. “Chinese companies are just doing it as a commitment to buy U.S. soybeans.”

Trump said on Friday sales would be on track by the spring.

“It is good to see the hard work of our U.S. trade negotiators and their Chinese counterparts turning into business for U.S. soy farmers and exporters. We look forward to this continuing as trade lanes are restored,” said Jim Sutter, chief executive officer of the U.S. Soybean Export Council.

China had largely shunned U.S. soybeans this season due to a heated trade war with Washington, sourcing supplies from export rivals Brazil and Argentina instead.

The absence of their top customer dragged U.S. soy prices to near multi-year lows this summer and heaped strain on a farm economy already struggling from rising costs for inputs like fuel, fertilizer and seeds.

Farmers and trade groups have been working to open new markets for U.S. soy, but those efforts to replace Chinese demand have been difficult.

The most active U.S. soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rallied nearly three per cent on Monday to a 17-month high on the China trade optimism.

Cash premiums for soybeans delivered to Gulf Coast and Pacific Northwest terminals in the coming months and loaded for export jumped by 10 cents a bushel or more, traders said.

— Additional reporting by Ella Cao in Beijing and Naveen Thukral in Singapore

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Strong South American soybean exports boosted results in Bunge’s soybean processing and refining segment after bumper harvests in Argentina and Brazil and as top soy importer China shunned U.S. supplies due to trade tensions.

The earnings beat comes as Bunge and its agribusiness peers have grappled with ample global crop supplies and slumping margins, and as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats upended global trade.

Trade, biofuels policy expected to drag on profits

Ongoing trade and biofuels policy uncertainty will be a drag on fourth-quarter earnings as farmers selling crops to Bunge and customers buying its products have been reluctant to book deals beyond the near term, company executives said, pressuring margins for Bunge.

“Policy decisions, including biofuels and trade, remain in flux as we look ahead to 2026,” CEO Greg Heckman said.

Bunge’s adjusted profit of $2.27 per share (C$3.21) for the quarter ended September 30 was its lowest third-quarter result since 2019, although it topped analysts’ average estimate of $2.09 per share, according to LSEG data.

The company reaffirmed its previous earnings guidance of between $7.30 and $7.60 per share for 2025, noting headwinds from policy uncertainty but adding that conditions were “developing favorably.”

Merger with Viterra bolstered profits

Rival grains trader Archer-Daniels-Midland lowered its 2025 outlook on Tuesday to a six-year low as trade and policy uncertainty sapped demand and eroded margins.

Bunge’s completed merger with Viterra bolstered its crop marketing and origination capacity and expanded its soy processing business in Argentina.

The company’s soybean processing and refining segment posted an adjusted quarterly profit of $478 million, a 67 per cent gain from the same quarter a year earlier, while softseed processing and refining unit profit more than doubled.

Profit in Bunge’s grain merchandising and milling division was up 56 per cent, as higher wheat milling and ocean freight earnings more than offset poor grain merchandising results.

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