It will also likely mean Carney won’t have to worry about an election for years.

Capping off an extraordinary few months in Canada when several opposition members joined Carney’s Liberals, his party said in a statement it had secured seats in all three ridings.

WHY IT MATTERS: Canadian farmers and rural ridings, particularly in Western Canada, lean heavily toward the Conservative party in federal elections

Those were the Ontario ridings of University-Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest which have long voted Liberal as well as a hard-fought seat in Terrebonne, Quebec.

The wins take Carney’s Liberals to 174 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons.

“This is a decisive moment for Canada — one that calls for serious leadership, a strong economic plan, and leaders from all backgrounds standing up to build a better future,” the Liberal party said in a statement.

No longer reliant on other parties’ support

The Liberals have relied on selective support from the Conservatives to pass economic and trade-related legislation in the last year.

“He will be able to pass legislation without having to go to the opposition to secure enough votes,” said Andrew McDougall, assistant professor in Canadian politics at the University of Toronto.

“I think it’s too early to tell, but my thinking is, is that government policy, ag or otherwise, will have a better chance of moving through the system,” said Senator Rob Black in an interview with Glacier FarmMedia.

Black, who until recently chaired the Senate agriculture committee, championed Bill S-230, the National Strategy for Soil Health Act, which passed in the Senate in late March.

Black said he thought all parties in the House of Commons and Senate “all have that desire to drive on a little bolder, quicker.”

‘Won through backroom deals’

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre took to X to express his dissatisfaction at both the process and the result: “The Carney Liberals did not win a majority government through a general election or today’s by-elections. Instead, it was won through backroom deals with politicians who betrayed the people who voted for them.

“While the Prime Minister spent the year on this cynical power grab, he has doubled the deficit, and given Canada the worst grocery prices and housing costs in the G7,” he wrote.

The result means Carney has solidified his grip on leading Canada until at least 2029, when national elections are due to be held next. The last time a federal government had a majority in Parliament was under Justin Trudeau from 2015 to 2019.

His position had been strengthening gradually as five opposition legislators in five months defected to the Liberals. Only the governments led by John A. Macdonald, Canada’s first prime minister, and Jean Chretien have seen more politicians defect to the ruling party.

‘Large Liberal tent’

Last Wednesday, longtime Conservative politician Marilyn Gladu switched parties to join Carney’s government, saying Canada needs “a serious leader who can address the uncertainty that has arrived due to the unjustified American tariffs.”

Gladu, a former chemical engineer who has previously drawn criticism for promoting unproven scientific treatments during the COVID-19 pandemic, opposing a ban on conversion therapy and suggesting the military be used to end Indigenous-led protests against oil pipelines, thanked Carney for inviting her into “the large Liberal tent.”

The University-Rosedale seat was previously held by former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, who resigned after being appointed as economic development advisor in Ukraine.

The Liberals also said they won a special election to replace former Liberal lawmaker Bill Blair, who resigned after he was appointed ambassador to the United Kingdom.

In the third riding in Terrebonne, Quebec, the Liberals defeated the separatist Bloc Quebecois.

Carney a centrist leader

Laura Stephenson, chair of the political science department at the University of Western Ontario, noted that while Trudeau had shifted the party to the left and prioritized issues like reconciliation with Indigenous peoples, rights for minority groups and immigration, there are more pressing matters for Carney, a more centrist leader.

“He is focused on helping Canada survive the economic turmoil, not remaking society,” she said. “When we’re in tough times like this, there are different calculations being made.”

Recent polling from Nanos shows more than half of Canadians prefer Carney as their prime minister, with just 23 per cent picking Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Before Carney became leader of the Liberal Party last year, Poilievre had been projected to win the next election by more than 20 points.

“Carney has done a fairly good job showing Canadians he can handle Trump,” said McDougall of the University of Toronto. “He’s shown Canadians he’s a competent manager of the economy and the country,” he said. “And so far Canadians have not been overly impressed by the alternatives.”

-With files from Jonah Grignon, Glacier FarmMedia

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Among Group of Seven countries, Canada recorded the highest rate of food inflation in December, according to government data. Food prices rose by 6.2 per cent in December, double the rate in the U.S., and more than three times the rates in France and Germany.

Carney leads a minority government and relies on support from other parties to pass legislation and stay in power. While Canadians have consistently rated Carney as the best leader to deal with threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, voter sentiment could change quickly if concerns about American aggression lessen — and cost-of-living issues become more urgent, as they have in Britain, the U.S. and elsewhere.

A statement from the Bank of Canada this week noted that grocery prices jumped by 22 per cent in the last three years, compared to 13 per cent for other consumer prices. The central bank said last year’s food inflation was mostly driven by imported foods, supply shortages caused by extreme weather and the significant depreciation of the Canadian dollar in 2024.

Carney announced last week that the country’s poorest 12 million people will get a tax credit for the next five years, “to make sure Canadians have the support they need now.” The government is also taking other measures, like setting aside C$500 million to help businesses deal with supply chain disruptions and allowing producers to write off greenhouse expenses.

Tax credits and supply chain support

But the measures do little to lower food prices in Canada, which is now the biggest driver of inflation, according to Jeremy Kronick, director of the Centre on Financial and Monetary Policy at the C.D. Howe Institute think tank in Toronto.

“This will mostly provide relief to people who are choosing between paying rent or buying food, but it is not going to bring food prices down,” said Michael von Massow, a professor at the University of Guelph who specializes in food economics.

John Fragos, press secretary for Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne, said the new government initiatives were only a first step towards curbing food costs.

“We’ve bridged the food inflation gap as it exists now and we’re taking aim at structural issues that will, over the medium and long term, bring down the price of groceries,” said Fragos.

In late 2024, ex-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also announced a two-month suspension of a sales tax on selected goods “to give Canadians more money in their pockets.” It had mixed results, with some sectors like restaurants reporting increased sales while other businesses did not see an impact.

Canada’s unique grocery market problems

Academics point to entrenched issues including the dominance of just five companies in the grocery sector, a shorter growing season for produce in Canada, and a reliance on the U.S. that has resulted in higher prices via supply chain disruptions.

“There are some uniquely Canadian problems that make the cost of food here so very expensive,” said Michael Widener, who studies food systems at the University of Toronto.

“Labour and transportation costs are higher, and geographically, we are not close to many other markets,” he said, adding that the dependence on produce from the U.S. and Mexico made Canada extremely vulnerable.

Sylvain Charlebois, an expert in food distribution at Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia, said the government should focus on efforts like eliminating high transportation costs between provinces, addressing the high internal costs of production due to labour laws and the industrial carbon tax among other constraints, and increasing competition within the grocery sector. Canada is a major producer of canola, wheat, dairy and meat but is almost entirely dependent on imports of fresh produce during the winter.

Fresh fruit and vegetables routinely cost at least twice as much in Canada as they do in Britain and elsewhere in Europe; a two-pound bag of carrots in Canada costs $2.21, compared to $0.95 in Britain and $1.18 in Germany, according to online retailers.

Food prices ‘not a voting issue’

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has long railed against the high cost of food for Canadians, but that has not translated into increased support. He still trails Carney by double digits in opinion polls — and Carney’s approval has risen since his widely praised Davos speech that openly called out the world’s superpowers for using “economic integration as weapons,” according to several polls.

A poll by Nanos on January 30 showed 54 per cent of Canadians approved of Carney but also noted that 11.4 per cent said inflation was their biggest concern, up from 9.3 per cent a month earlier.

The Conservatives’ co-deputy leader Melissa Lantsman told reporters on Monday that “no amount of tax rebates” will solve the problem of food inflation, adding that more than 2 million Canadians, or about five per cent of the population, now rely on food banks, the highest-ever recorded number.

Shachi Kurl, president of the non-profit pollster Angus Reid, said despite food costs consistently ranking among Canadians’ top concerns, Trump’s repeated threats to annex the country have translated into a bigger issue for voters.

“For the time being, food prices are not a voting issue,” Kurl said. “But if Canadians think that is something they can hold their leader accountable for, it may yet become one.”

Ashton Arsenault, who was an aide to a Conservative minister under previous leader Stephen Harper, said exorbitant food costs should present an opportunity for Conservatives to win more public support, but that a steady rise in prices over the years have largely left most Canadians resigned to the inflation.

“Even when things get really bad, we are still very Canadian and polite about it and don’t take to the streets to protest,” he said. “This is a very tough problem to fix and it will take political courage to do it.”

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“Today’s trade deal to significantly reduce Chinese tariffs on canola and other Canadian products is very good news for Canada and Saskatchewan,” said Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe in a statement.

Moe, who joined Carney in Beijing, called the deal a “positive signal” that trading volumes would be restored. The agreement also shows “what can be achieved when the federal and provincial governments and our export industries work together to strengthen our trade relationships,” he added.

EV tariffs reduced

The first Canadian prime minister to visit China since 2017, Carney is seeking to rebuild ties with his country’s second-largest trading partner after the United States following months of diplomatic efforts.

Canada will initially allow in up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles at a tariff of 6.1 per cent on most-favoured nation terms, Carney said after talks with Chinese leaders including President Xi Jinping. He did not specify a time period.

That compares with the 100 per cent tariff on Chinese electric vehicles imposed by the government of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in 2024, following similar U.S. penalties. In 2023, China exported 41,678 EVs to Canada.

“This is a return to levels prior to recent trade frictions, but under an agreement that promises much more for Canadians,” Carney told reporters in Beijing.

Trudeau had justified his tariff on the grounds that there was an unfair global market edge for Chinese manufacturers benefiting from state subsidies, a scenario that was threatening to Canada’s domestic industry.

“For Canada to build its own competitive EV sector, we will need to learn from innovative partners, access their supply chains, and increase local demand,” Carney said.

He pointed to a stronger partnership with China in clean energy storage and production, driving new investments.

Carney said he expected the EV pact would drive “considerable” Chinese investment into Canada’s auto sector, create good careers in Canada and speed it towards a net zero future.

Agri-Food partnership

Doug Ford, premier of Ontario, Canada’s main auto manufacturing province, complained China now had a Canadian foothold and would take full advantage. 

“The federal government is inviting a flood of cheap made-in-China electric vehicles without any real guarantee of equal or immediate investments in Canada’s economy, auto sector or supply chain,” he said in a post on X. 

Last March, in retaliation for Trudeau’s tariffs, China levied tariffs on more than $2.6 billion of Canadian farm and food products such as canola oil and meal, followed by tariffs on canola seed in August.

That led to a slump of 10.4 per cent in China’s 2025 imports of Canadian goods.

Under the new deal, Carney said, Canada expects China will lower tariffs on its canola seed by March 1, to a combined rate of about 15 per cent.

“This change represents a significant drop from current combined tariff levels of 84 per cent,” he said, adding that China was a $4 billion canola seed market for Canada.

Canada also expects its canola meal, lobsters, crabs and peas to have anti-discrimination tariffs removed from March 1, until at least year-end, he added.

The deals will unlock nearly $3 billion in export orders for Canadian farmers, fish harvesters and processors, Carney said.

In a joint statement announced by China’s state-run Xinhua news agency, the two countries pledged to restart high-level economic and financial dialogue, boost two-way trade and investment, and strengthen cooperation in agriculture, oil, gas and green energy.

Carney said Canada will double its energy grid over the next 15 years, adding that there are opportunities for Chinese partnership in investments including offshore wind.

He also said Canada was scaling up its LNG exports to Asia and will produce 50 million tonnes of LNG each year – all destined for Asian markets by 2030.

China ‘more predictable’

“Given current complexities in Canada’s trade relationship with the U.S., it’s no surprise that Carney’s government is keen to improve the bilateral trade and investment relationship with Beijing, which represents a massive market for Canadian farmers,” said Beijing-based Trivium China’s Even Rogers Pay.

“Meanwhile, it’s difficult for Washington to criticise Carney for striking a beneficial trade deal when Trump himself just did so in October.”

U.S. President Donald Trump has also imposed tariffs on some Canadian goods and suggested the longtime U.S. ally could become his country’s 51st state.

China, similarly hit by Trump’s tariffs, is also keen to cooperate with a Group of Seven nation in a traditional sphere of U.S. influence.

“In terms of the way our relationship has progressed in recent months with China, it is more predictable, and you see results coming from that,” Carney said when asked if China was a more predictable and reliable partner than the U.S.

Carney also said he had discussions with Xi about Greenland. “I found much alignment of views in that regard,” he said.

Trump has in recent days revived his claim to the semi-autonomous Danish territory as NATO members scrambled to counter U.S. criticism that Greenland is under-protected.

Sino-U.S. rivalry

Analysts say the rapprochement could reshape the political and economic context in which Sino-U.S. rivalry unfolds, although Ottawa is not expected to dramatically pivot away from Washington.

“Canada is a core U.S. ally and deeply embedded in American security and intelligence frameworks,” said Sun Chenghao, a fellow at Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy.

“It is therefore very unlikely to realign strategically away from Washington.”

But if Ottawa took a more pragmatic and autonomous economic policy toward China, Beijing could point to it as evidence that U.S.-led decoupling was neither inevitable nor universally accepted among America’s closest partners, he added.

— Additional reporting by Joe Cash, Ethan Wang, Ella Cao, Xiuhao Chen, Shi Bu, Yukun Zhang and Liz Lee. With files from Glacier FarmMedia.

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The four-day visit to China was the first by a Canadian prime minister since 2017, following up on Carney’s positive meeting with Xi in South Korea in October. The two are set to meet again on Friday.

“We’re heartened by the leadership of President Xi Jinping and the speed with which our relationship has progressed,” Carney told China’s top legislator, Zhao Leji, in a meeting in Beijing.

WHY IT MATTERS; In a ‘roadmap’ agreement signed on Thursday, Canada and China committed to “maintaining open channels of communication” to resolve issues on trade in agricultural products.

“It sets the stage for these important discussions on a wide range of issues where we can be strategic partners from energy to agriculture, to people-to-people ties, multilateralism, to issues on security.”

Carney’s optimism follows months of intense re-engagement by both countries aimed at recalibrating ties that had soured under the previous prime minister, Justin Trudeau.

The efforts have also been fuelled by a push to diversify export markets after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada last year and suggested the longtime U.S. ally could become his country’s 51st state.

“Our teams have worked hard, addressing trade irritants and creating platforms for new opportunities,” Carney told Premier Li Qiang in a separate meeting.

“I believe that together, we are bringing this relationship back toward where it should be.”

Auto tariffs in focus

Periods of tension in the past decade have strained ties, most recently after Trudeau’s government imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in 2024, following similar U.S. curbs.

Trudeau said at the time the EV tariffs were imposed because Chinese state subsidies had given manufacturers in China an unfair advantage in the global marketplace, harming the outlook for Canada’s auto industry.

China retaliated last March with tariffs on more than C$3.6 billion of Canadian farm and food products, such as canola oil and meal, leading to a slump of 10.4 per cent in Chinese imports of Canadian goods in 2025, shown in customs data on Wednesday.

Canadian Industry Minister Melanie Joly, who was part of Carney’s delegation to China, said talks about auto tariffs were still ongoing, when asked by reporters if Canada might reduce the EV tariffs by 50 per cent.

Negotiations will continue on Friday, Joly said, when Carney will meet with Xi.

Dialogue has gathered pace

Efforts to strike up new dialogue have gathered pace since Carney took the helm last year, with top officials from both sides setting up meetings and telephone calls that resulted in the leaders’ October meeting in South Korea.

In a trade and economic roadmap signed on Thursday, both committed to “maintaining open channels of communication” to resolve issues on trade in agricultural products.

In the roadmap, Ottawa welcomes Chinese investments in energy, agriculture and consumer products, while Beijing looks forward to Canada’s investment in services, new materials, aerospace and advanced manufacturing, among other fields.

In energy, both sides are to explore oil and gas development, as well as cooperation in natural uranium trade.

The pacts provide “an example to the world of cooperation amidst a time globally of division and disorder,” Carney said in his meeting with Zhao.

Since arriving in the Chinese capital on Wednesday, Carney has met senior executives of its business groups, such as EV battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology and China National Petroleum Corp.

He has also met officials of smart wind turbine maker Envision Energy, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China 1398, investment firm Primavera Capital Group and e-commerce titan Alibaba.

— Additional reporting by Joe Cash in Beijing

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WHY IT MATTERS: Foreign minister Anita Anand said talks so far on canola had been productive and would continue.

Chinese imports from Canada tumbled 10.4 per cent in 2025 to C$57.9 billion from an all-time high a year earlier, a scheduled monthly statistics release by China’s customs authority showed on Wednesday. The last time inbound shipments fell was in 2020, when the pandemic knocked down imports by a staggering 22.3 per cent.

Mark Carney arrived in Beijing on Wednesday in the first visit to China by a Canadian prime minister since 2017.

Trip meant to heal rift

The trip is expected to focus on narrowing a years-long rift that widened in 2024 when former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau followed in the footsteps of the Biden administration and slapped 100 per cent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

“China is our second-largest trading partner, and the world’s second largest economy. A pragmatic and constructive relationship between our nations will create greater stability, security, and prosperity on both sides of the Pacific,” Carney said on social media.

The visit follows a positive encounter with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea in October. While the meeting produced no breakthroughs, with Chinese tariffs still shutting out Canadian canola from its biggest market, both leaders agreed to advance bilateral ties.

Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand said talks on the canola issue had been productive and would continue.

“We will be exploring several opportunities for collaboration between the broader populations, in addition to examining the trade and economic relationship,” she told reporters in Beijing late on Wednesday, describing bilateral ties as “complex.”

Desire to diversify from U.S.

Re-engagement with China has also been driven by a desire to diversify export markets after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada last year and suggested that the longtime U.S. ally could become the 51st U.S. state.

Ahead of Carney’s visit, Chinese state media have been quick to remind Carney of Canada’s “strategic autonomy” from its southern neighbour.

“If the Canadian side reflects on the root causes of the setbacks in bilateral relations over the past few years – the previous Justin Trudeau government’s policies to contain China in lock step with the United States – it will realize that it can avoid the same outcome by upholding its strategic autonomy in handling China-related issues,” state-run China Daily wrote in an editorial.

Under Trudeau, Ottawa stressed concerns over human rights and accused China of interfering in Canadian domestic affairs, a charge Beijing consistently rejected.

“We will continue to have difficult conversations and discuss human rights issues … at the same time, we need to continue to build the Canadian economy and to do that, we will be at the table here,” said Anand.

Chinese imports from the United States in 2025 also slumped, down 14.6 per cent from a year earlier, according to the Chinese customs data released on Wednesday.

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It is the first visit to Beijing by a Canadian prime minister since 2017 and could mark a critical shift in ties between the two countries as Canada seeks new trade and security partnerships.

Carney agreed to visit China last October when he and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in South Korea. It was an encounter that offered no breakthroughs but suggested potential for deeper ties after a fractious relationship under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, which had soured after Canada arrested the chief financial officer of Chinese firm Huawei in 2018.

This time, experts expect some deals – or at least promises of future deals – to be struck. Senior Canadian officials said Carney would sign a number of memoranda that are still under discussion.

Greg MacEachern, a former senior Liberal ministerial adviser, said he expected the trip would yield results beyond mere symbolism.

“When the Prime Minister is invited to China, it is not for window dressing,” he said, adding the trip would be monitored in Washington.

“There’s a political risk this could upset President Trump, but Prime Minister Carney clearly wants to send the message that Canada is open for business. And the Canadian government has made the calculation that it’s worth it.”

Crude, canola in focus

Deals could include more exports of Canadian crude to China, according to a source informed of the discussions.

Canada exports some 90 per cent of its oil to the United States but a planned increase in U.S. oil imports from Venezuela could decrease U.S. demand for Canadian crude.

Senior Canadian officials said they expected progress but not the definitive elimination of Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola exports during the visit.

China looks forward to deepening mutual trust with Canada during the January 14-17 visit, the Chinese foreign ministry said.

“Both Canada and China want to signal their good intentions, so they each need to give away something,” said Lynette Ong, a professor of Chinese politics at the University of Toronto.

China announced preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola imports in August, escalating a year-long trade dispute that began with Ottawa’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports a year earlier. The tariffs have virtually eliminated all canola exports to China, which was previously the biggest export market for Canadian canola.

Ong said the EV tariff was introduced during the administration of former U.S. President Joe Biden and the recent rupture in Canada’s relationship with the U.S. made keeping it unnecessary, because alignment with Washington had become less of a priority for Ottawa. China is Canada’s second-biggest trading partner after the U.S.

Doug Ford, premier of Ontario, Canada’s most populous province and auto hub, urged Carney not to “back down,” saying the EV tariffs should only be lifted if China opens a manufacturing facility in Ontario.

Colin Hornby, head of the Manitoba farm group Keystone Agricultural Producers, said he did not expect an agreement to eliminate the canola tariffs during the trip but was optimistic something could happen in the coming weeks or months.

Concerns about national security, human rights

Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, warned more cooperation with China in sectors like AI and critical minerals could jeopardize Canadian security, however.

“There are clear red lines not to be crossed,” she said.

Canada has previously voiced concerns about human rights violations in China, including the jailing of pro-democracy media mogul Jimmy Lai, the secret execution of four Canadians in China last year and past interference in Canadian elections.

Cheuk Kwan, co-chair of the Toronto Association for Democracy in China, said he hoped Canada would “not fall into the trap of appeasing China just to secure bilateral trade agreements.”

Two Canadian Members of Parliament said on Monday they were ending a trip to democratically governed Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, early this week ahead of Carney’s visit to China to avoid confusion with Canada’s foreign policy.

China’s plans to welcome Carney at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People, arguably the country’s grandest government building, may be part of a “charm offensive,” said Joseph Torigian, an expert in Chinese politics at American University.

Torigian suggested China might be looking to burnish its global reputation after the U.S. seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro earlier this month.

“The Chinese might make a case during bilateral meetings with Canada about how unreliable the U.S. is as a partner and how dangerous they are,” Torigian said. “Whereas China is willing to help Canada expand its trade relationships outside of its hemisphere if the Canadians are willing to play ball.”

— Additional reporting by Wa Lone and Divya Rajagopal in Toronto and Ed White in Winnipeg

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