“I think harvest has started in the southwest part of Saskatchewan. That’s the earliest start because they were the first to get in the fields,” said Walter Dyck of Olds Products at Lethbridge, Alta. “And I know there where some timely rains that did hit in that period, in the last month, so I think that mustard crops overall are looking pretty good.”

However, some mustard crops were impacted by heavy storms that passed over the growing regions, according to Dyck.

“There were some storms that went through early August that might have had an effect,” he said. “But up until that point, mustard really hasn’t been affected too much with hail, not anything too much worse than previous years.”

Other than some hail damage, he said, mustard crops haven’t had any other significant production issues.

“The mustard usually escapes a lot of the insect threats that come about, it’s just the flavour of the mustard,” said Dyck. “But I haven’t heard anything that has caused any concern as far as needing spray or anything like that. I think some insects have been spotted in crops but I think in most cases it hasn’t been close to that threshold.”

Mustard prices are currently at a good place, he added, and “holding up really quite well given what’s going on in other grain and oilseed markets.”

Brown mustard is now running around 30 to 33 cents a pound, while yellow mustard is closer to 36 cents/lb., he said.

“It’s really holding up quite well from where prices were a year ago, they haven’t really come off that much,” he said. “And I think the main thing there is low inventory, and possibly some higher demand from Europe is always a possibility, but I’m not too sure what’s going to develop there at this point.”

Southern and central Alberta will be next to start harvesting mustard, Dyck said, and the rest of Saskatchewan will probably begin in the next week or two.

“Things are really coming along quite well this year, yields are looking above long-term averages for sure and last year was a really good year for average mustard yields,” he said.

“And this year I don’t think it’ll get that high on average, but it’ll be pretty close, and I think a lot of farmers will be somewhat surprised with their yields.”

— Marney Blunt writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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“The harvest is going to be a little later than normal,” said Francois Labelle, interim executive director for the Manitoba Pulse Growers Association. “It will be in September, we won’t see any beans harvested in August.

“We’re seeing a lot of leaf drop (and) early maturing going on in the edible beans now, and there are reports of some fields of edible beans having some pre-harvest desiccation going on.”

Other than late planting this spring, edible bean crops in Manitoba have been fortunate enough to have dodged bullets on many production issues.

“It’s been a very light year on most production issues,” said Labelle. “I guess the one thing (that helped) was the dry period in August — it sure held back the disease — and we haven’t had a whole lot of insect issues reported.”

The precipitation much of the province received last weekend didn’t have much of an impact on the crops.

“Some of the beans will probably not be helped by it because they’re too far matured,” said Labelle. “And some of the later ones, there’s still an opportunity to help size up the beans and make them slightly larger, which has a significant effect on yield.”

Producers are now looking ahead and hoping for beneficial weather conditions in the last few weeks approaching harvest, he said.

“We’re looking forward to hopefully good weather so we can get a quality crop off of what is there and make marketing easier this year.”

— Marney Blunt writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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“In general, the chickpea crop looks really good,” said Colin Young, owner of Midwest Investments at Moose Jaw, Sask. “Of course the acres tend to be south and west of Moose Jaw, where I’m located, and of all the weather problems that were well-documented in the spring, that area tended to be the most exempt from them.”

While chickpea crops look good overall, he said, there have still been significant localized weather events in the past six weeks that will impact chickpea production.

“The crop is advancing nicely especially given the late start,” he said. “But yesterday I talked to producers that got significant hail on a portion of their chickpeas, (and) there’s reports of some fields that have some soil-born disease that have decimated a certain percentage of the localized crop.”

Chickpea producers are now focused on what the weather will bring in September, a key stage for crop development.

“September always tells the tale of chickpea,” said Young. “So no matter what the whole growing season is, we’re vulnerable until Sept. 20.”

The good run of favourable weather from mid-July and into August and good moisture supplies has significantly advanced the crop, which could hopefully make up for lost time at the start of the season.

“I sort of think of the growing season as a trip that you go on,” said Young. “Just because you start late, doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t arrive on time. You just have an obstacle.”

The chickpea market has been quiet, he added.

“The small calibre, Frontier-type, eight-millimetre and under, is still under intense competition and cheap supplies globally,” said Young. “That being said, the larger calibre, the new nine- and 10-mm Orion variety, are looking like they’re going to have good demand in the upcoming year.”

Last Thursday’s report from Statistics Canada showed no change in estimates for chickpea acres. About 170,000 acres of chickpeas are expected to be harvested. Production estimates came in at 142,500 tonnes, compared to 169,400 the previous year.

— Marney Blunt writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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Both corn and soybeans in Chicago were weaker on the week ending Wednesday. Corn futures ranged 2.5 to three cents lower. Soybeans contracts ranged from 14 to 14.25 cents lower (all figures US$).

“The news is the same: Trends are down, weather is beautiful,” said Scott Capinegro, president of Barrington Commodity Brokers. “I guess we have to wait for Allendale’s numbers next week, and then the (U.S. Department of Agriculture) report if we’re going to continue the trend down to harvest, but rallies right now are hard to come by.”

The next report for monthly crop production from USDA is scheduled to be released Sept. 11.

“The trade is pretty non-eventful,” said Capinegro. “(Soy)beans should lose to corn like it has this week again, and (with) corn, we’ve been at a five-week trading range. About $3.58 to $3.81, there’s just nothing there.

“We all know big crops are out there, it’s just now how big — and the market definitely needs to make sure we continue to be very competitive in world markets for exporting.”

Harvest is underway in some Delta states including Texas, Mississippi and Arkansas.

“The yields that I keep on seeing are just phenomenal. So we’re going to have a big supply,” said Capinegro. “I think that the fringe areas of Texas, Kansas and Missouri are going to have better yields than they’ve had in the last three years by far. So they’ll make up anything that’s kind of going backwards up in North Dakota and South Dakota easily.”

Southern Illinois could potentially start its harvest within the next one to two weeks, he added.

Abundant precipitation in parts of the U.S. Midwest has been beneficial to corn and soybean crops.

“We’ve had a lot of rain, and it’s been probably one of the wettest Augusts that I can remember over the last four or five years anyway,” said Capinegro. “So it’s had to help corn and beans tremendously.”

Some soybeans are dealing with sudden death syndrome (SDS), but Capinegro said that’s an issue every year.

“Until there’s some kind of game-changer, trends are down,” he said. “Whether it’s going to be SDS problems in beans or an early frost, I don’t see anything else that is going to be a real game-changer.”

— Marney Blunt writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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“I think summer 2014 is going to go down as extraordinary from a (beef) price perspective clear across the board, and I guess the same would hold true for pork as well,” said Anne Wasko, a marketing analyst at Gateway Livestock Group. “The demand has been much better than any of us have anticipated, especially given these record high prices.”

It’s important to note, she added, it has been a significantly great summer for beef and pork demand in Canada.

“All prices made record highs back in the month of July; if you’re going to pick a date it was right near the end of July where everything from retail to wholesale to feedlot prices to feeder cattle and calf prices all saw record highs,” said Wasko. “Now today, some of those prices are settling back at both the wholesale and feedlot, so that would be packer and feedlot levels.”

Retail prices took a little longer to reach their highs in the summer, which result in them taking slightly longer to come back down off their highs, according to Wasko.

“They’re (also) going to be much slower to come down because supplies are still going to be tight for quite some time on the beef side of the equation, so don’t anticipate a great deal of change there,” she said. “But markets today are off a little bit from where we were a month ago.”

The final summer demand will come out of the upcoming Labour Day weekend, which should be beneficial to retail prices.

“We’ve had some pretty cool, wet weather recently, so hopefully there will be an improvement in weather as we head into the Labour Day weekend,” said Wasko. “So we’ll watch that as we go forward but again, it’s been an amazing summer for beef demand whether it’s from the hamburger or meat trim grind cuts or all the way to the higher-end products; everything has certainly seen increased demand and price levels compared to what we’ve ever seen before.”

The same holds true for Canadian pork prices, which will be starting to decline after an exceptionally high summer.

“Our prices for most of the year have been well above year-ago prices, so we’ve had a very strong July,” said Brad Marceniuk, a livestock economist with the Saskatchewan ag ministry in Saskatoon.

“So we can expect prices to come down, but yeah, typically we do see some weakness this time of year. Part of that has to do with supply, (which) typically goes up, and the amount of hogs that come to market will typically increase this time of year also.”

Pork and hog prices were pushed higher this summer because of the shortage in supplies that resulted from the porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) in the U.S., but Marceniuk said PEDv is now making less of an impact on supplies and prices.

“Last winter there were more cases, and so supplies were declining for the summer months, and so summer pricing did go up quite a bit,” he said. “And typically over the summer it sounds like the number of cases was really reduced… so we’re probably going to see a supply of hogs going to market this fall to go up a bit from where we were.”

PEDv seems more likely to thrive in colder weather, Marceniuk said. “So now the question is, will the disease pick up again this fall and will it cause supplies to decline later on in the year?

“But overall, the thing that happens in fall time is the supply typically increases a little bit so we see prices do come down a little bit from our summer highs,” he added. “It’s just that the last six months have been above normal because of PEDv, so it’s a little harder to know where prices will go.”

— Marney Blunt writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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“I think maybe basis levels tightened up a little bit, but I don’t think we’ve seen any immediate impact on basis levels because of that report,” said Reid Fenton of BLB Grain Group at Three Hills, Alta. Until now, he added, the basis levels have been fairly tight this summer.

Basis levels “narrowed in there around the end of July, and now they’ve widened out, at least in our area for September, October, November (futures),” he said.

Basis levels for January, February and March are looking good, although nothing outstanding, he said.

“They’re not the best that we’ve ever seen by any stretch but they’re definitely (good).”

Many canola producers are reluctant to sell to the market as of right now, Fenton said.

“A bunch of guys have pre-sold some and that’ll get delivered when they harvest it, depending on space at the elevator,” said Fenton. “I’d say farmers are reluctant sellers below $10 per bushel, which I don’t think there’s anything out there right now that it is even close to $10 per bushel.”

Right now spot bids range from $8.30 to $9.80 per bushel, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire.

Harvest has begun for some crops in Alberta, including peas, but not for cereal crops or canola.

“I would say by the end of next week harvest will be general in our area,” said Fenton. “Guys are starting to combine peas here, no cereals yet. Canola is just starting to get swathed here last week… If the weather holds, we’ll be (harvesting) on canola probably mid-next week.”

Harvest progress in Saskatchewan, Canada’s largest canola producer, is coming along as well, with just over one per cent combined and four per cent swathed or ready to cut, according to a recent crop report from Saskatchewan Agriculture.

Swathing of canola is also underway in Manitoba, according to a recent report from the provincial ag department.

— Marney Blunt writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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Traders are focusing on yield estimates from ongoing crop tours in the U.S., according to industry participants.

“That, along with a crop conditions report that came out Monday afternoon at 3 p.m., show that corn and (soy)beans are in good to excellent condition, well above the five and ten year averages,” said Sean Lusk, the director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading in Chicago.

“Couple that with the weather that we’re getting. We’re getting enough consistent rain and enough sunshine (and) going forward for the next six-day forecast and into next week, we’re getting warmer temperatures and we’re getting wetter and the yields look to be coming in better.”

Private forecasts from both the ProFarmer and Informa crop tours indicate a high level of moisture in the soil, which is increasing yield potential as harvest approaches.

The ProFarmer crop tour scouts forecast higher corn yields in Indiana, South Dakota and Ohio than what the U.S. Department of Agriculture had reported (USDA).

“And in the near term (the) weather outlook out of the Labour Day weekend is optimal, it can’t be any more optimal,” said Lusk. “They’re getting rain in most of the Grain Belt; they’re getting good amounts, it’s half an inch higher, and they’re getting warmer temperatures.”

Soybean futures in Chicago were also mixed on the week that ended Wednesday, with only gains in the September contract. December soybeans closed at US$3.675, down from $3.6975 the previous week.

Crop tours are showing reports of good-sized soybean pods, Lusk said, which can most likely be attributed to the warmer temperatures. Approximately 71 per cent of the U.S. soybean crop is rated as being in good or excellent condition.

“The USDA was conservative on their estimate, they’ll probably adjust it to other numbers, and traders are starting to look at that,” he added. “The only thing bullish right now in the market is that they’re running up old-crop beans — September contracts versus the November versus the January — and eyeing that spread because they’re looking at an old ending stocks numbers.”

Overall, Lusk said, soybean and corn contracts are being pushed lower by optimal weather conditions and private forecasts from crop tours and says these levels should remain steady, unless an extreme bullish weather event occurs prior to harvest.

— Marney Blunt writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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“There’s a storm system for Friday and Saturday (August 22 and 23) which looks a little ominous at the moment,” said Drew Lerner, president of World Weather Inc. in Kansas City. “I think there’s still a potential for the system to weaken quite a bit, but it’s still going to produce generalized rain.”

Lerner said he expects the storm system will probably produce 20 to 60 millimetres of rain in the eastern Prairies. There will also be lighter, more erratic rainfall leading up to the heavier weekend rains, followed by cooler, drier weather early next week.

“The eastern Prairies will probably have a shot of cold coming up here late this weekend and into early next week,” said Lerner. “But it won’t be cold enough to push us over the edge and cause any crop-threatening environment.”

There will be more precipitation in the longer-term, following the cooler, dry weather in the short term.

“Next week will probably be a little bit drier and that’s why we’ve got that cooler shot of air that will be of interest, (and) it will probably rattle a few cages during the early part of next week,” said Lerner. “But the dry weather will probably only be short-lived and it will go back into another round of wetter-biased conditions, especially when we get into September.”

Field work will have to advance around the rainfall, he said, advising that producers shouldn’t wait for perfect weather conditions for harvest this year.

“They should keep close tabs on the timing of these weather systems so that they can get into the fields as quickly as they can, so they can avoid any kind of quality issue,” he said.

Manitoba, eastern Saskatchewan and the northern U.S. Plains are expected to see slightly warmer than normal temperatures for the last portion of August and into early September. Lerner said he would be more concerned with northern Alberta later on this month or in early September.

“If anybody is going to be vulnerable to a normal or slightly earlier than normal frost-freeze event it’s going to be that area,” said Lerner.

“Northern parts of Alberta and maybe the far northwest corn of Saskatchewan (will be vulnerable to early frost), but for the most part the Prairies are going to be normal to later than normal on their first frost-freeze event.”

— Marney Blunt writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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Weather conditions have been tough on this year’s wild rice crops, according to an industry participant.

“What we’re hearing right now in northwestern Ontario is (that the) high water and the cool spring is inhibiting the harvest,” said Murray Ratuski, president of Floating Leaf Fine Foods, which operates the Shoal Lake Wild Rice processing facility. The company covers wild rice crops in Saskatchewan, Manitoba and northwestern Ontario.

“(In) Manitoba, we’re just waiting to see how things look. In the inland lakes there are reports that it looks like it’s going to be an average crop where water levels have been fluctuating on the river systems because of the high water, rain and lots of runoff this year.”

Wild rice, which grows in shallow water in lakes, rivers and streams, stands upright and above the water surface as it progresses through the season. High water levels can make it difficult for the crop to stand up.

“A lot of the plants didn’t get the chance to break the water or to come up through the water, so they’re basically drowned,” said Ratuski. “And (for the) ones that did, it’s going to be a slower and later season because of the cooler spring. The rice needs a warmer spring.”

“No way to tell”

Crops are doing a little better now that the temperatures are warming up, he added, but it will still be a below-average harvest.

“Saskatchewan has the same thing with the high water,” added Ratuski. “They’ve got some inland lakes and river systems that are looking good around the shore, but high water, a lot of runoff, rain and a cool spring makes it look like it’s going to be another lean year.”

Harvest won’t begin for another two to three weeks, he said, depending on how the crop progresses.

“Last year’s crop was about the same as this year,” he said. “We’re down, I think, about 40 per cent from an average year for as far as Canadian production goes. So we’re certainly looking at another lean year. (There is) no way to tell, but it’s not going to be an average year that’s for sure.”

Prices are up right now with the low supply and high demand, he said.

“Most of the demand for wild rice in Canada is pretty steady and consistent and same with the U.S.,” said Ratuski. “But the growth is in Europe and Asia — Japan, China, Hong Kong, et cetera.”

— Marney Blunt writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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“They’ve held in very strong relative to corn and wheat,” said Ryan McKnight, a grain merchant for Linear Grain at Carman, Man. “Out of the whole grain complex, oats have not seen the kind of drops that we’ve seen in other things; I think because of that it will hurt the feed demand in the oat market in the long term.”

Not many grain companies are offering for oats recently, due to ongoing logistics and transportation issues, he added.

“Railways are more or less getting caught up,” said McKnight. “Oats are going, for the most part, in the U.S. and the railcars don’t come back very quickly when they’re going to the delivering railway carriers, so my guess is if railways are going to be most likely less interested in those types of destinations.

“Assuming that they have high demand for cars, they’re going to be looking to haul to places that have fast turnaround times, which will be mainly the ports.”

Milling demand for oats remains steady as usual, he said.

“Feed oat demand is sort of the kicker in the oat usage world. If oats are too high-priced, relative to other replacements for oats, then they don’t use them; they kick them out of their usage and that leaves the demand lower,” said McKnight. “There’s demand that comes from the feed industry and that (demand lowers) when oats are high-priced relative to other commodities.”

This year’s oat crop is expected to be average-sized, but there are some worries over the quality.

“We’ve seen some boarded kernels, heat blasting (blight) they call it, in Manitoba and there’s a possibility the oats could be a lighter test weight,” said McKnight. “I haven’t confirmed that because we haven’t seen any crop samples yet. But based on the weather we’ve had, the oat quality in Manitoba is possibly questionable.”

McKnight said there aren’t a lot of oats acres in Manitoba’s southwest, which received an excessive amount of rain in early June — but cropland around Yorkton, Sask. has also seen heavy rainfall, which could impact crop yields and quality.

“Farmers should probably consider selling some oats at these levels because if there’s any sort of correction relative to other commodities it’s going to make for obviously lower oat prices,” he said.

“So if people can make money at today’s prices they should probably sell some to buyers willing to take them.”

— Marney Blunt writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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