“I want John Deere and Case and all of – they’re great companies, Caterpillar… I want these companies to give it to you in the form of lower tractor and equipment costs,” Trump told hundreds of farmers and ranchers gathered under drizzle at an event on the South Lawn of the White House.

Deere & Co shares dropped two per cent after the statement. Case IH manufacturer CNH Industrial fell one per cent while Caterpillar Inc was down nearly 1.2 per cent in late-session trading.

The three companies could not immediately be reached for comment.

Trump seeks support from struggling farmers

Trump called for lower prices in an aside during a speech that otherwise focused on shoring up support among the Republican president’s loyal constituency of rural voters, who have backed Trump in all three of the last presidential races.

For the fourth straight year, U.S. crop producers are facing tight margins, high production costs and low commodity prices – and are struggling financially – despite near-record government payments.

The Trump administration is distributing $12 billion (C$16.7 billion) in aid to U.S. farmers — a move that farm trade groups and agricultural economists have said is helpful in the short-term but will not fully compensate farmers for financial losses that have topped $30 billion in recent years.

On Friday, Trump said he would seek even more such aid for farmers from Congress. More than 50 farm-interest groups, such as the American Farm Bureau Federation, are urging Congress to approve additional aid in a military funding package.

Trump pledges new loan guarantees

The event happened as the administration finalized new biofuel blending mandates for U.S. oil refiners, requiring them to mix more of the fuels made from corn and other agricultural products into the nation’s gasoline and diesel than initially proposed, in an apparent win for farmers.

Trump also said the U.S. Small Business Administration would open up new loan guarantees for farmers and food suppliers.

Farmers are entering the critical spring planting season under a cloud of uncertainty as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran disrupts global trade, causing fertilizer and diesel costs to spike.

The long-term U.S. trade relationship with China also remains unclear amid the ongoing trade war launched by Trump’s administration with the country, the world’s top soy importer.

Rural voters constitute a fifth of the U.S. electorate, and they favored Trump by a two-to-one margin over Democrat Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.

— Additional reporting by Bhargav Acharya

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The two-day meeting this week in Arlington, Virginia, focused on a challenging farm economy that could see further headwinds after the U.S. Supreme Court on Friday struck down Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs that he pursued under a law meant for use in national emergencies. The ruling handed a stinging defeat to the Republican president, with major implications for the global economy and potential ripple effects on the U.S. farm sector.

Trump has since vowed to levy a global 10 per cent tariff using other trade powers, but details are scant.

What USDA is doing

• The Farmer Bridge Assistance program is expected to distribute $11 billion in one-time payments to farmers. It’s a per-acre rate for those who planted one of the 19 commodity crops identified as being eligible for the program. Another $1 billion is slated for specialty crop producers.
• USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said Friday that the agency will open the application process ahead of schedule on Monday.
• In December, Rollins said farmers who qualify could expect “payments in their bank accounts” by February 28 – six days after applications open.
• “These resources will help carry producers into the next season, truly a bridge, as purchase commitments and new trade deals take effect and input costs continue to decline,” Rollins told a packed ballroom at the Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia on Friday.
• Rollins did not immediately respond to questions about how USDA will process an expected flood of applications.
• Deep staffing cuts across the federal government last year, including at USDA’s Farm Service Agency offices in rural America, have slowed farmer access to many government services.
• The federal payments will not fully compensate farmers for financial losses that have topped $30 billion in recent years, economists and industry groups said.
• The aid will act as “a bridge until the improvements in the farm bill programs are realized on the farm,” John Newton, vice president of public policy and economic analysis at the American Farm Bureau Federation, told Reuters on the sidelines of the conference.
• Earlier this month, USDA had forecast that U.S. net farm income would fall 0.7 per cent this year, despite near-record government payments expected to account for nearly 29 per cent of producers’ bottom line.
• USDA said it expects prices paid to farmers for corn, soybeans and wheat to rise slightly in the 2026/27 season, though prices remain well below recent highs.
• Average prices were projected at $4.20 a bushel for corn, $10.30 for soybeans and $5.00 for wheat — 10 cents higher than the current season and well below 2022/23 levels, USDA data showed.
• USDA Chief Economist Justin Benavidez said ad hoc farm aid, which has reached near-historic levels in recent years, has helped keep farmers in business during the downturn but likely supported input prices.

— Reporting by Karl Plume in Arlington, Virginia, and P.J. Huffstutter in Chicago

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Net farm income, a broad measure of profitability in the agricultural economy, is forecast to drop 0.7 per cent to $153.4 billion (C$210.1 billion) in 2026 from the year before, USDA said. When adjusted for inflation, net farm income is projected to decrease by $4.1 billion or 2.6 per cent.

Without government payments, net farm income this year would fall nearly 12 per cent to $109.1 billion, according to agency data.

“Government payments are doing a lot of the work in supporting crop producers,” said Wesley Davis, a partner at Meridian Agribusiness Advisors, an agricultural economics consultancy in New York City.

Increasing dependence on gov. support

But farmers, economists and lawmakers warn that even more government support may be needed to offset the impact of low crop prices, a global grain glut, rising operational costs and lost export sales due to Trump-era trade and economic policy changes.

Many farmers are increasingly dependent on federal support to pay their bills — while also taking on record levels of debt — even as government payments near record levels, economists said.

USDA forecast that producers will receive $30.5 billion in direct payment support in 2025 and $44.3 billion in 2026, excluding additional payouts from federal crop insurance indemnities.

Such levels have not been seen since 2020 and 2021 amid COVID-19 pandemic upheaval and trade disruptions during President Donald Trump’s first term.

Farmers suffering losses

On Thursday, USDA said the higher support figures reflect payments from Farm Bill programs triggered by falling crop prices, along with continued high levels of supplemental and disaster assistance.

The data, which is published three times a year, was not released in December due to an earlier federal government shutdown and those findings were incorporated into the regular February report. Agricultural economists said that delay has made it harder to assess stress in the sector.

USDA forecast that farmers’ cash receipts – what they get paid for their crops – would rise this year for corn, hold generally steady for soybeans and fall for wheat. Livestock receipts are expected to drop due mainly to lower egg and milk prices, while cattle receipts will continue to increase.

The chair of the U.S. Senate’s agriculture committee said on Tuesday that many farmers were suffering heavy losses, while more than two dozen former USDA officials and industry leaders cautioned lawmakers that U.S. agriculture faced the risk of a “widespread collapse” in part because of the Trump administration’s policies.

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For three years, the costs of seed, fertilizer and other farm inputs rose, while plentiful grain supplies limited profits for farmers, economists said. Then, President Donald Trump returned to office last year, sparking trade disputes that disrupted U.S. crop exports and immigration crackdowns that increased labor costs and left some farms with crops rotting in fields.

Many farmers are now bracing to potentially lose money for a fourth consecutive year. Tough credit conditions are forcing those with limited cash flows to make decisions about what acres to plant and how much fertilizer to buy, economists said.

By the numbers

Former USDA and industry officials said in a letter to U.S. lawmakers that Trump administration policies harmed farmers.

The Trump administration announced the $12 billion aid program last year, but it will only cover a fraction of farmers’ losses, agricultural economists and bankers said.

The USDA said in a statement to Reuters that Trump was using every tool available to support farmers and ensure they have what they need to continue farming operations.

U.S. Senator John Boozman, a Republican from Arkansas who chairs the Senate Agriculture Committee, said in a webcast of a conference of state agriculture officials in Washington on Tuesday that farmers growing crops are “losing money, lots of money.”

Jump in operating loans

Bankers reported a nearly 40 per cent jump in new farm operating loans in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to a year earlier, according to a Federal Reserve survey.

The average size of such operating notes was 30 per cent bigger during 2025 than a year earlier, according to an analysis of the data by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City staff.

The percentage of farmers expecting bad financial times in the next year jumped to 59 per cent in January from 47 per cent in December, according to a survey released Tuesday by Purdue University and CME Group.

The percentage of producers who thought U.S. agriculture would have widespread bad times during the next five years climbed to 46 per cent from 24 per cent a month earlier, the survey found.

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture quoted the choice boxed beef cutout value at $366.18 per hundredweight (cwt) on Wednesday morning, up $1.42 from a day earlier. Select cuts rose by $2.41 to $362.25 per cwt.

Cattle futures also continued to gain support on recent rumors being debunked that the New World screwworm parasite might cross the border from Mexico into the U.S. cattle herd, market analysts said.

CME February live cattle futures LCG26 settled up 0.725 cent at 233.100 cents per pound, while April live cattle futures LCJ26 ended 0.375 cent higher at 234.950 cents per pound.

March feeder cattle futures FCH26 ended up 1.700 cents at 359.375 cents per pound.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is expected to report on Friday the number of cattle on feed in feedlots on January 1 was down 3.2 per cent from a year earlier, analysts forecast, as cattle supplies remain tight and the size of the U.S. herd is at decade lows.

Livestock traders may also have seen some bullish price support from a cooling risk of tariffs with the European Union, said Rich Nelson, chief strategist at Allendale Inc.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday abruptly stepped back from threats to impose tariffs as leverage to seize Greenland and ruled out the use of force.

Trump said a deal was in sight to end a dispute over the Danish territory that risked the deepest rupture in transatlantic relations in decades.

Meanwhile, lean hog futures ticked higher, with most-active April lean hogs LHJ26 ending up 0.425 cent at 95.60 cents per pound.

Hog futures continued to gain strength on market chatter and farmers talking about pig diseases – specifically porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome and porcine epidemic diarrhea virus – circulating in U.S. hog operations that threaten to curb pork production, analysts said.

“We have heard recent concerns over what this could mean for winter farrowings,” said Nelson, adding that growing concern over whether disease pressures could result in tightening hog supplies going into the fall.

The USDA on Wednesday also reported pork carcasses prices rising, up 94 cents to $94.41 per cwt, and pork belly prices jumped $6.79 to $129.23 per cwt.

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During the trading session, the most-active corn futures contract on a continuous basis Cv1 fell to the lowest prices seen since October 22 on the news, analysts said.

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures also dropped sharply, as USDA estimated that farmers also produced a larger-than-previously reported harvest and lowered its estimate for the nation’s soybean exports in the current crop year – bearish news as President Donald Trump’s trade war with China has chilled demand from the world’s biggest importer.

“For soybeans, the anchor on the market is exports,” said Don Roose, president of US Commodities. “As we hit first of February, our exports are just going to die,” he said, citing cheaper prices for soybeans shipped from rival supplier Brazil.

The flurry of data came as USDA published its annual U.S. crop production, quarterly grain stocks, U.S. winter wheat seeding and monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.

Chicago Board of Trade most-active corn Cv1 settled down 24-1/4 cents at $4.21-1/2 a bushel. Soybean futures Sv1 ended down 13-1/2 cents at $10.49 a bushel. Earlier in the session, it dipped to $10.43-1/2 a bushel – the lowest price since January 2.

Wheat futures closed down 6 cents at $5.11-1/4 a bushel, facing some spill-over pressure from corn futures and news that winter wheat planted acreage was larger than the trade expected, said Angie Setzer, a founder at Michigan-based Consus Ag.

Prior to the reports, Chicago grain and soybean futures had turned higher on news of more U.S. soybean sales to China and weakness in the U.S. dollar, making U.S. grains and oilseeds cheaper in export markets.

Before the USDA reports were released, wheat futures had seen some support by dryness concerns in the U.S. Plains, analysts said. But traders said such support quickly faded in the face of the updated winter wheat seeding data – and the fact that it is too early in the season for dry conditions to materially affect winter wheat yields, with crop conditions still looking relatively good across the region.

On Friday, Chinese state agency Sinograin purchased at least 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans, moving closer to fulfilling a commitment to buy 12 million metric tons of the latest U.S. soybean harvest by the end of February. On Tuesday, Sinograin will auction 1.1 million tons of imported soybeans as the state stockpiler works to make room for arriving U.S. shipments.

-Additional reporting by Karl Plume and Tom Polansek in Chicago, Michael Hogan in Hamburg, Daphne Zhang, Ella Cao and Lewis Jackson in Beijing.

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CBOT soybean futures fell after a day of choppy trade on signs of China returning to the U.S. market, and trying to finish up last-minute buying before the end of the year, said Dan Basse, president of Chicago-based AgResource Co.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that exporters sold 136,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China and 231,000 tons to “unknown destinations” – with both for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year that started September 1.

“The market talk is that China is aiming to finish up its book of buying and get 9.5 to 10 million metric tons done by the end of this year,” Basse said. “The market sees the news as China is complying with its commitment in the trade talks. The question now is whether there really is a commitment to buy more next year,” after the initial amount is done.

U.S. farmers and grain traders have been closely tracking the pace of Chinese purchases and the shipments of soybeans in the wake of the trade talks and, according to the White House, a vow by Beijing to buy 12 million metric tons by the end of the year.

Trading remained light after the Christmas holiday and as the year-end approached, with many traders booking profits and exiting the market. CBOT most-active soybean contract Sv1 settled down 1-1/4 cents to $10.62-1/4 a bushel. Corn Cv1 ended down 1-3/4 cents at $4.40-1/2 a bushel.

And the most-active wheat contract Wv1 finished 2-1/4 cents lower at $5.10-3/4 a bushel, on concerns about hefty global supplies.

Agricultural consultancy Sovecon on Tuesday raised its 2025/26 Russian wheat exports forecast by 0.4 million metric tons to 44.6 million tons.

And wheat futures also were pressured by hopes that the war in Ukraine will end soon, even after Russia accused Kyiv on Monday of trying to attack President Vladimir Putin’s residence, pledging retaliation in response. Ukraine dismissed the claim, calling it a lie intended to derail peace talks.

A resolution of the conflict that has lasted for nearly four years would likely weigh on wheat prices, as the removal of war-related shipping risks would reduce export costs and increase access to more Ukrainian ports for wheat shipments, analysts said. Ukraine is one of the world’s biggest exporters of wheat and corn.

-Additional reporting by Renee Hickman in Chicago, Daphne Zhang, Ella Cao and Lewis Jackson in Beijing, and Sybille de La Hamaide in Paris.

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Chicago | Reuters – Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures fell for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, setting a new eight-week low, as ample supply and progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine triggered selling by speculative investors.

Corn futures firmed on export demand, though pressure from the wheat market continued to weigh on prices. Cheaper wheat can compete with corn demand in feed markets, market analysts said.

Soybean futures ended lower for a fourth straight session, as traders adjusted some of their positions ahead of the holidays – despite news of China buying more soybeans, market analysts said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported sales of 323,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/26 marketing year – with 198,000 tons to China and 125,000 tons for “unknown destinations.” U.S. farmers and traders have closely watched China’s demand for American agricultural goods since President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping struck a trade truce in late October.

“The question we’re all wondering is, ‘What will China do when the political buying of U.S. soybeans ends?'” said Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co in Chicago. “Is the 12 million tons the cliff? Or will there be more?”

A partial recovery in crude oil prices also failed to lift soybeans, amid concern that China’s demand for U.S. crops could be capped. Brent crude LCOc1 fell below $60 a barrel this week for the first time since May, putting downward pressure on prices of biofuels and the feedstocks used to make them, including soy.

On Wednesday, the CBOT’s most-active corn contract Cv1 settled up 4 cents at $4.40-1/2 per bushel. Soybeans Sv1 ended down 4-1/2 cents at $10.58-1/4 per bushel, the lowest since October 23.

CBOT wheat Wv1 fell 3-1/4 cents to close at $5.06-1/4 per bushel. Earlier, the contract declined to $5.04 a bushel during the session – its lowest level since October 23.

Exporters cancelled sales of 132,000 metric tons of U.S. white wheat to China, the USDA said on Wednesday. While the news was seen as bearish, traders said the cancellation did not significantly impact the global supply balance sheet, as world supplies were ample.

Southern Hemisphere producers are pouring wheat into an already well-supplied market. The Rosario Grains Exchange last week raised its production estimate for Argentina to a record-high 27.7 million metric tons, and Australia is on track for its third-biggest harvest.

-Additional reporting by Peter Hobson in Canberra and Sybille de La Hamaide in Paris.

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The Rosario Grains Exchange last week raised its production estimate for Argentina to 27.7 million metric tons from 24.5 million tons. Australia is on track for its third-biggest harvest.

Progress in talks to end Russia’s war in Ukraine also hung over grain markets, analysts said. Ukraine is a major corn and wheat exporter.

The most-active March wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade Wv1 fell by 11-1/4 cents to $5.09-1/2 after touching its lowest since October 23 at $5.07-1/2.

Weakness in the wheat market spilled over into corn futures, amid ongoing concern that cheaper wheat supplies could eat into demand for corn as a livestock feed, traders said.

Soybeans dropped to a new seven-week low due to concerns about U.S. export demand and expectations for a bumper harvest in Brazil. Traders have been disappointed at the pace of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans since this fall’s trade talks between Washington and Beijing.

March CBOT corn eased by 3-1/4 cents to $4.36-1/2 a bushel after falling to a three-week low on Monday, and January soybeans fell 9 cents to at $10.62-3/4 a bushel.

Weakness in the energy markets also cast a pall over soy markets, market analysts said. Oil prices fell below $60 a barrel on Tuesday, the lowest since May, as prospects for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal appeared to strengthen, raising expectations sanctions could be eased.

U.S. domestic crushing of soybeans slowed more than expected in November but was still a record high for the month, according to the National Oilseed Processors Association.

“For soybeans, it’s all about energy and China fatigue,” said Don Roose, president of U.S. commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa. “The premium that had been in place in the soybean market with the U.S.-China talks is just being sucked out right now.”

-Additional reporting by Peter Hobson in Canberra and Gus Trompiz in Paris

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Wheat futures slumped as Argentina’s large crop kept world supplies plentiful, traders said. And corn futures were pressured by cheap Argentine feed wheat, which could reduce corn demand.

Chicago Board of Trade most-active soybeans Sv1 settled down 5 cents at $10.71-3/4 per bushel, the lowest since October 30. Earlier in the session, the most-active contract dipped down to $10.67, the contract’s lowest since October 27.

Meanwhile, CBOT wheat Wv1 settled down 8-1/2 cents at $5.20-3/4 a bushel. During the trading session, the most-active contract dropped to $5.19-1/2 a bushel, the lowest since October 31. Corn futures Cv1 settled down 1 cent at $4.39-3/4 a bushel – after earlier touching a low of $4.36-3/4 a bushel, the lowest price since November 25.

Soybeans faced weakness as the pace of Chinese purchases of U.S. beans following the trade truce between the two nations has disappointed traders, remaining well below the 12 million metric ton purchases flagged.

They also felt carry-over pressure from data released on Friday from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which showed that managed commodity funds had built a massive net long position in CBOT soybean futures by mid-November, leaving the market prone to bouts of long liquidation, said Chuck Shelby, president of Risk Management Commodities, a division of Zaner Ag Hedge.

As of Friday, total open interest in CBOT soybeans has fallen every day since December 4 – even as futures have declined, in another sign of long liquidation.

The CBOT data showed a delayed snapshot of where funds had been in their positions as of November 18, when the market was keenly focused on U.S.-China trade talks. Release of the information was delayed during the 43-day U.S. government shutdown in October and November.

“The data delay is pretty frustrating for the market right now,” Shelby said. “What we’re seeing today is a pretty broad-based commodity sell-off.”

Meanwhile, markets continue to struggle to define Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans, said Matt Ammermann, commodity risk manager at StoneX. “Senior U.S. officials have said China will buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans, but the timescale is uncertain and China has not confirmed this number.”

-Additional reporting by Julie Ingwersen in Chicago, Michael Hogan in Hamburg and Peter Hobson in Canberra.

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