Ukraine is a major global wheat grower and exporter, shipping about 70 per cent of its wheat harvest for export via the country’s Black Sea ports. Food exports account for the majority of Ukraine’s total exports.

Russia has increased attacks on the port hub in the southern Odesa region this month, leaving about a million households without power after one of the attacks.

UAC said in its weekly report that Ukraine had exported 359,150 metric tons of wheat by mid-December, out of 1 million tons contracted for export for the month.

The union said that some export terminals have halted operations and the port is operating at 20 per cent of capacity.

“We see that for the second week in a row, one of the central ports has been unable to start up and operate normally,” UAC said.

“Traders have no idea what to do. It’s dangerous to store grain at the port, and logistics are not working properly – there are constant power outages and constant disruptions with locomotives.”

Ukrainian state railway Ukrzaliznytsia said last week that Russia had attacked the port of Pivdennyi in Odesa region as well as the rail infrastructure that delivers cargo to the port.

Analyst Barva Invest said this month that Ukraine’s maritime export terminals had reduced grain intake owing to constant Russian attacks.

Ukraine’s economy ministry said last week that the country’s wheat exports had fallen to 7.5 million tons so far in the 2025/26 July-June season, against 9.2 million tons for the same period of the previous season.

The ministry also said that Ukraine would not restrict wheat exports in 2025/26 because of a large harvest and low export rates at the beginning of the season.

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WHY IT MATTERS: Ukraine is one of Europe’s leading corn growers and exporters.

This year, harvesting was significantly delayed by rains in most regions, and the harvested corn was saturated and required additional drying.

Ukraine expects to harvest at least 30 million metric tons of corn in 2025.

UAC’s weekly report said Ukraine had exported 1.3 million tons of corn so far in November against 2.5 million tons in November 2024.

Traders say they plan to export 1.85 million tons of corn in December versus 2.6 million tons in the same month last year.

“There was a problem harvesting, then there was a problem drying, and now there is a problem transporting the corn to the ports,” UAC said.

The union said that ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian railways, locomotives and power substations had led to a shortage of locomotives and significantly lengthened the time it takes to deliver corn to ports.

It said grain delivery times to seaports from central Ukrainian regions had increased several times to up to six weeks.

Ukraine’s economy ministry said on Tuesday the country had exported a total of 3.12 million tons of corn so far for 2025/26 against almost 7 million tons a season earlier.

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Ukraine, one of the world’s leading wheat producers and exporters, has been restricting wheat exports over the past few seasons to prevent a rise in bread prices.

WHY IT MATTERS: This year has seen large global wheat harvests, which has put downward pressure on prices.

“We do not plan to impose any restrictions on wheat exports this season. The harvest is higher than last year, and export rates are lower,” said Taras Vysotskiy.

“According to our estimates, the wheat harvest will be around 23 million (metric) tons, and exports are expected to reach around 17 million tons (in the 2025/26 season),” he said.

Ukraine harvested 22.6 million tons of wheat in 2024 and exported 15.7 million tons of the commodity in 2024/25.

The economy ministry data showed that the country had exported 6.8 million tons of wheat so far this season versus 8.6 million at the same period a season earlier.

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Why it matters: Ukrainian rapeseed competes with Canadian canola into European markets.

Ukraine is a major exporter of rapeseed and soybeans, mostly to European countries. The duty might create short-term price volatility, although traders expect the government to intervene before there are longer-term implications.

The Ukrainian parliament passed a bill in July imposing the duty on exports of the two oilseed crops with the aim of increasing domestic processing volumes and boosting revenue for a state budget strained by the war with Russia.

Ukraine’s grain traders union, UGA, and the UAC opposed the decision, saying the duty could simply reduce purchase prices on the domestic market, hitting farmers’ incomes.

The government has not commented on the situation.

However, analysts say the duty is unlikely to lead to significant export reductions.

On Monday, consultancy APK-Inform said it still forecasts soybean export shipments, which have not yet begun, at 2.6 million to 2.7 million tonnes. The rapeseed export forecast has also remained virtually unchanged at 2.4 million to 2.5 million tonnes.

UAC said the country exported about 640,000 tonnes of rapeseed from July to early September.

It noted that at least 400,000 tonnes of rapeseed were contracted for export this month and around 200,000 tonnes for October.

Ukraine has completed the 2025 rapeseed harvest, threshing 3.25 million tonnes.

“As of September 5, exports have been completely halted. With a 10 per cent duty, it is possible (to export), but ships are waiting in ports because the shipments contain mixed products from both producers and traders,” UAC said in a statement.

Exports are not subject to duty if the farmer sells their own rapeseed and soybean products.

“The problem lies in the lack of a clear procedure for documenting the origin of products grown by agricultural producers or cooperatives themselves,” the union said.

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Ukraine is a traditional corn grower and exporter and exports are expected at around 22 million tons in the 2024/25 season.

“In the current conditions, we cannot compete with American suppliers on the European market,” UAC said in a statement, adding that U.S.-origin corn was traded at $230 per tons versus $256-$260 per ton for Ukrainian corn.

“Ukrainian corn is sold in small batches of 2,000 or 5,000 tons mainly to Greece and Cyprus. For comparison, the U.S. exports only large volumes of 25,000 tons or more,” the union said.

UAC noted that Ukraine already had limited volumes of corn available for exports in remaining months of this season and it did not exceed 1.5 million tons.

Ukraine exported 20.6 million tons of corn as of June 2, official data showed.

The union said corn prices would gradually decline to around $215 later in June and from the second half of the month demand could fall and the market would focus on the new harvest.

Ukraine harvested 27 million tons of corn in 2024 but the crop may decrease to 26 million tons in 2025 mainly due to unfavourable weather.

Farm minister Vitaliy Koval told Reuters on Tuesday that Ukrainian grain harvest may decrease by 10 per cent to around 51 million tons, according to the most pessimistic estimates.

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In the first official forecast for next year’s harvest, Vysotskiy said the sowing area could reach 5 million hectares in 2025 versus 4.6 million in 2024.

Ukraine, a global major grain grower and exporter, used to sow six million hectares of winter wheat before the Russian invasion in 2022 but reduced the area sharply after large areas have either been occupied or mined.

Ukraine harvested 22 million tons of wheat in 2024 versus average harvests of 25-28 million tons before the war.

“If we take into account the average yield, we would have at least 22 million tons (of wheat), but if the weather is positive, it could be 25 million tons,” Vysotskiy said.

“The area has grown – half a million hectares is significant. In fact, it will be up to 5 million hectares,” he added.

Winter wheat generally accounts for 95 per cent of overall Ukrainian wheat output each year.

Vysotskiy said most of the sowing area had emerged so far, but the harvest would depend on the weather in winter and spring.

A record drought this summer and autumn led many farmers to sow grain in dry soil in the hope that autumn rains and a mild winter would allow seeds to germinate and produce a good crop.

The Ukrainian national agricultural academy said that weather in October, as well as September, was unfavourable for development of winter crops, most of which lack moisture.

State weather forecasters last month said that most of Ukraine’s winter crop was under threat, with almost all seedlings underdeveloped.

“On all territories wheat has grown, germination is more than 90 per cent. The question is what will happen next. As of today, there is no apocalyptic scenario,” Vysotskiy said.

More corn, less soy

Ukraine is a traditional grower and exporter of corn, but difficulties in exports forced farmers to cut the sown area sharply to 3.9 million hectares (9.6 million acres) in 2024 from 5.5 million hectares (13.6 million acres) in 2021.

Farmers also increased the area under soybeans seeking more profit from high prices, taking the country’s soybean output to an all-time high of 6 million tons this year.

Vysotskiy said a large harvest had caused a decrease in prices and farmers would return to corn in 2025.

“We see that corn prices are holding high and soybeans are down because we have overproduction of soybeans. Corn could add 0.5 million hectares (1.2 million acres) in 2025, while soybeans could lose 0.5 million hectares,” Vysotskiy said.

He added that the area under sunflower would be stable at up to 5.5 million hectares in 2025.

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“The harvest (of 2024) due to difficult weather conditions is a bit smaller and there are no carryover stocks from previous periods and exports will be around 40 million tons,” Vysotskiy told national television.

Abnormal heatwaves dominated most Ukrainian regions this summer, sharply reducing the yield of corn and other late crops.

Farm minister Vitaliy Koval told Reuters last month that Ukraine, a grain net-exporter, would keep its exports at a high level despite a smaller harvest and could ship abroad 16.2 million tons of wheat and 21.7 million tons of corn in the 2024/25 season.

Traders exported 18.4 million tons of wheat and 29.4 million tons of corn in 2023/24, also due to high stocks from previous seasons, when key Ukrainian seaports were blocked because of the Russian invasion.

Ukraine is a major global grain grower and before Russia’s invasion in 2022 the country exported about 6 million tons of grain alone per month via the Black Sea. About 85 per cent of Ukrainian food exports now leaves Ukraine from its Black Sea ports.

“This is not a record volume (of 2024 grain harvest) and therefore we are confident that the existing infrastructure … will allow this average volume to be exported,” Vysotskiy said.

Freight

Ukraine has exported 11.7 million tons of grain so far the 2024/25 July-June season, up from about 7.42 million tons over the same period of the previous season, agriculture ministry data showed on Friday.

Traders shipped abroad 1.29 million tons of grain so far in October versus 667,000 tons over Oct. 1-11 last year.

ASAP Agri consultancy said the available tonnage in the Black Sea-Mediterranean basin for October dates continued to shrink and this week charterers encountered an acute shortage of vessels in the coaster segment, particularly for spot dates.

The consultancy said shipowners adopted a “wait-and-see” approach, refraining from offering their vessels too quickly.

Local producers however said that increased attacks by Russia on ships carrying agricultural products in the key Black Sea ports were complicating export logistics and affecting freight costs.

Insurance sources said on Thursday the war premiums had jumped around 30 per cent this week to just over one per cent of the value of the vessel from around 0.7 per cent in early September, which would mean hundreds of thousands of dollars in extra costs.

Vessels calling at Ukraine were at “heightened risk of direct attack by Russian forces,” British maritime security company Ambrey said in a note.

Russian ballistic missiles attacked the Odesa region again on Friday, becoming the fourth such attack since Sunday.

— Additional reporting for Reuters by Anastasiia Malenko

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Ukraine is a global major grower and exporter of grain, vegetable oils and oilseeds.

KSE said in a report the expected sum included losses of crop production, animal husbandry, losses of producers due to export disruptions, as well as losses due to rising production costs and losses due to the need to return land to production.

“The largest share of losses was caused by a decrease in crop production. The total indirect losses due to the reduction in crop production amount to $46.5 billion,” it said.

KSE said crop production decreased both due to a decrease in sown areas and due to a change in production technology, which leads to a drop in the yield of major crops.

Ukraine’s combined grain and oilseed harvest was 107 million tonnes in 2021 but is likely to fall to around 77 million tonnes in 2024.

KSE also said that the second largest category was losses due to export disruption and they are estimated at $24.1 billion.

“The naval blockade imposed by the Russian Federation at the beginning of the invasion, and subsequently the limited functioning of the so-called grain corridor, led to an increase in logistics costs,” KSE said.

Amid the war with Russia, the agricultural sector remains one of the main sources of export earnings for the Ukrainian economy, supplying grain, vegetable oil and oilseeds to foreign markets.

Media, quoting farm ministry data, have said farm exports totalled around $23 billion in 2023.

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That included 2.18 million tons of wheat, 553,732 tons of corn and 454,641 tons of barley, the data showed.

Ukraine’s UGA grain traders union said this month that overall grain and oilseed exports totalled 4.3 million tons in August, up from 4.2 million in July.

• RELATED: Ukraine says peace summit follow-up meeting tackles food security
• RELATED: Drought dominates Ukrainian winter grain sowing fields, forecasters say

UGA said that included 2.2 million tons of wheat, 794,000 tons of rapeseed and 646,000 tons of corn.

Ukraine typically sends about 95 per cent of its grain exports via its Black Sea ports.

Agriculture Ministry data on Wednesday showed that Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2024/25 July-June season had jumped to 7.2 million metric tons as of Sept. 4 from 4.9 million by the same date of the previous season.

That included 3.8 million tons of wheat, 2.3 million tons of corn and 1.1 million tons of barley.

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In recent years, Ukraine has often experienced a lack of soil moisture during autumn sowing, but farmers are hoping that a wet and mild winter and favourable weather in the spring will allow for a good harvest.

“Drought continued and intensified in the fields intended for sowing next year’s winter crop,” forecasters said in a report.

• RELATED: Ukraine 2024/25 wheat exports to be capped

“After the July heatwave, in August, amid a severe precipitation deficit and high temperatures, soil and atmospheric drought intensified in the southern, central and eastern regions, spreading to about 60-70 per cent of the area, including the western regions,” they noted.

Ukrainian agriculture ministry said this week that farmers had started winter grain sowing for the 2025 harvest, seeding the first 27,700 hectares of winter wheat.

Winter wheat generally accounts for 95 per cent of overall Ukrainian wheat output each year.

Ukraine has completed the 2024 wheat harvest, threshing 21.8 million tons of the commodity, compared with more than 22 million tons in 2023.

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