The USDA releases its prospective plantings report on March 31, providing the first survey-based estimates on the upcoming U.S. growing season.

The trade sentiment ahead of the report is for a three-to-five-million-acre reduction in corn area from the 98.8 million acres grown in 2025 and a similarly sized increase in soybeans from the 81.2 million acres grown last year. Rising fertilizer costs due to the war could see even more area shift to soybeans.

Soybean/corn ratio

The soybean/corn ratio is calculated by dividing the soybean futures price by the corn futures price, with a number above 2.5 historically seen as favouring planting soybeans and a ratio below that tipping the scales to corn.

With May soybeans settling at US$11.7175 and corn at US$4.6725 on March 25, the ratio works out to 2.51 — slightly favouring soybeans.

However, the localized cash bid ratios across the countryside are more varied. Looking at a sampling of elevators in Illinois and Iowa the local soybean/corn ratios range from 2.35 to 2.65, meaning seeding corn looks more favourable in some areas and soybeans in others.

The high fertilizer costs and other metrics are also not caught in the ratio, which should keep speculation on the annual fight for acres at the forefront of the trade in the coming weeks.

Charts

May corn has traded in a range of US$4.40 to US$4.76 per bushel since the Middle East war started on Feb. 28. Fund traders added to the bullish bets, to sit on their largest net long in corn since February 2025 at about 230,000 contracts. The trend is still higher in corn, as that market looks to keep too many acres from flipping to soybeans.

May soybeans settled at US$11.7075 per bushel on Feb. 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel first attacked Iran and hit a session high of US$12.3875 per bushel two weeks later. However, the contract was right back where it started by March 25.

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Why it matters: A large fund position can sway the futures markets

The net managed money long position in canola futures came in at 110,658 contracts as of March 17 (135,694 long/25,036 short), up by about 18,000 contracts on the week due to a combination of short covering and new longs going on the books. That marked the largest net long position since July 2025.

Total open interest in canola futures increased to 364,317 contracts from 352,531 the previous week.

U.S. futures

Fund traders reduced their net long position in soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade by roughly 16,000 contracts, with the net long dipping to about 195,200 contracts. That was the first contraction after six previous weeks of increases.

The net short position in corn came in at about 230,800 contracts on March 17, up by 32,000 contracts on the week.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 11,900 contracts — down by about 10,000 contracts from the previous week.

Hard red winter wheat posted a net long of about 11,300 contracts. In MIAX spring wheat, the managed money net long position came in at about 15,300 contracts.

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For daily market updates visit the Western Producer Markets Desk

• Corn futures in Chicago climbed to their highest levels in 10 months, with the May contract up by 30 cents per bushel over the past month. Rising energy and fertilizer prices amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East added to expectations that farmers in the United States will shift more intended corn acres into soybeans this spring.
• West Texas Intermediate crude oil climbed to its highest levels in four years, trading at just under US$100 per barrel on March 19.
• Feed barley into the Lethbridge-area feedlots was priced at about C$285 to C$295 per tonne in mid-March, having risen by C$20 to C$30 per tonne over the past month, according to provincial data. Feed wheat priced similar, with corn from the U.S. at US$290 per tonne. • Seasonal price trends contributed to the gains, as feed supplies tighten ahead of cattle going out to pasture and the new crop.
• Solid export demand continued to underpin the domestic feed market, with more grain moving offshore this year. Canadian Grain Commission data shows 2.142 million tonnes of barley exported through 31 weeks of the marketing year, up from 1.204 million tonnes at the same point a year ago.
• Country-specific data through January shows China remains the largest single destination for Canadian barley in 2025-26, accounting for about 57 per cent of the movement to-date. Japan and Saudi Arabia were also major buyers.
• Canadian imports of U.S. corn are also up on the year, according to the latest USDA data. Canada has imported 383,600 tonnes of U.S. corn from Sept. 1 through March 12, which compares with only 101,700 tonnes at the same point the previous marketing year. An additional 201,100 tonnes are on the books to move later — roughly eight times the outstanding sales at the same point in 2024-25.

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AAFC cautioned that the conflict in Iran “has heightened geopolitical tensions and market volatility,” and noted that planting decisions could be altered while “the report is based on information and trade policies in effect as of March 11, 2026.”

Canola

• Projected canola ending stocks for 2025-26 were left unchanged at 2.76 million tonnes, while the 2026-27 forecast was cut by 200,000 tonnes from February at 1.46 million tonnes.

• Given average yields, AAFC forecast Canadian canola production in 2026-27 at 19.20 million tonnes, which was unchanged from the February estimate and down from the 21.80 million tonnes grown in 2025-26.

Wheat

• New crop wheat ending stocks were raised to 5.75 million tonnes from 5.70 million in February, while the 2025-26 wheat carryout held at 7.35 million tonnes.

• AAFC raised its call on wheat production to 35.01 million tonnes, from 34.98 million the previous month. That would still be well below the 39.96 million tonnes harvested in 2025-26.

Pulses

• Other notable revisions included slight increases in pea and lentil production estimates, with ending stocks of the two pulses also up by 100,000 tonnes each from the previous forecast.

• The pea carryout for 2026-27 was raised to 945,000 tonnes from 845,000 tonnes in February, while lentils were forecast at 1.67 million from 1.57 million tonnes.

• Pea ending stocks for the current marketing year are estimated at 1.31 million tonnes with lentils at 1.695 million tonnes.

Soybeans/Corn

• Corn ending stocks for both 2025-26 and 2026-27 were left at 2.00 million tonnes.

• Soybean carryout for 2026-27 was cut by 50,000 tonnes from February, at 693,000 tonnes, which compares with 443,000 for the current marketing year.

March estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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CWRS

Average Canada Western Red Spring (13.5 per cent) wheat prices were up by C$1.40 to down by C$2.70 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices ranged from C$260.10/tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to as high as C$288.10/tonne in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from $31.60 to $59.60/tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting everything into Canadian dollars (C$1=US$0.7300) CWRS basis levels ranged from C$13.30 to C$28.20 below the futures.

CPSR

Canada Prairie Spring Red (CPSR) wheat bids were also mixed, down C$1.30 to up C$1.80 per tonne, with prices ranging from C$238.20 to C$262.30 per tonne.

Durum

Average durum prices were softer, down $1.30 to C$3.20 per tonne. Durum prices ranged from C$277.10 to C$293.20 per tonne.

Futures

MIAX spring wheat futures lost 10.75 cents per bushel in the May contract to settle at US$6.2425/bu. on March 17.

Hard red winter wheat futures were down by two cents in the May contract on the week at US$6.0675/bu.

The May Chicago soft wheat contract lost 1.25 cents at US$5.8975/bu.

The Canadian dollar was down by nearly three-quarters of a cent relative to its U.S. counterpart at 73.00 U.S. cents on March 17.

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Peas

Canada exported 190,480 tonnes of peas in January, which was up by 15 per cent from December, reported StatCan. Year-to-date pea exports of 1.322 million tonnes were running about 200,000 tonnes behind the year-ago pace.

India was the top buyer through six months, accounting for just over 500,000 tonnes of the total pea exports. Bangladesh and China were also major buyers, although Chinese purchases of 104,406 tonnes through January compare with 413,950 tonnes at the same point a year ago.

Lentils

Canadian lentil exports were down 34 per cent in January compared to December, with about 165,342 tonnes moved out of the country. Turkey was the largest destination, accounting for 38 per cent of the total. Crop year-to-date exports of 1.191 million tonnes were down by two per cent on the year.

India was the largest buyer of lentils so far this marketing year, accounting for 30 per cent of the total. Turkey and the United Arab Emirates round out the top three.

Chickpeas

Canada exported about 19,840 tonnes of chickpeas in January, which was down 12 per cent from the previous month. The United States was the largest buyer, accounting for roughly a quarter of the total, followed by Turkey and Pakistan.

Year-to-date chickpea exports at 115,470 tonnes are running 27 per cent ahead of the 2024-25 pace.

The U.S., Turkey and Pakistan were also the top destinations for Canadian chickpeas during the 2025-26 marketing year through January.

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May canola settled at C$733.30 per tonne on March 11, having climbed by more than C$30 since the start of the war on Feb. 28.

The futures are “being dominated by what’s happening in the Middle East,” said Lawrence Klusa of Seges Markets in Winnipeg.

While an uptrend remains in place from a chart perspective, Klusa cautioned that picking a top under the current environment was difficult given the unpredictable geopolitics.

He expected the latest rally in canola could lead to some shift in seeding plans, and recommended farmers lock in some new crop pricing.

However, planted area could also change depending on fertilizer availability. Roughly a third of the world’s fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and its closure has sent prices climbing higher. Farmers may have already pre-booked fertilizer, but Klusa questioned if everything will be delivered.

“It will be an interesting year,” said Klusa, adding that weather conditions through the growing season will also become more important in the months ahead.

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The survey was conducted from mid-December to mid-January, marking the earliest time planting intentions data was collected by the agency. Subsequent surveys will provide data on actual planted area, with revisions possible for the next two years.

Wheat

Total Canadian wheat area is expected to be down by 1.1 per cent from 2025, at 26.7 million acres. Much of the decline was tied to a 6.7 per cent drop in winter wheat seeded in the fall, with spring wheat relatively steady on the year.

Canola

Canola area is forecast to increase by 1.0 per cent on the year at 21.8 million acres. The survey was conducted before China announced it was lifting tariffs on Canadian canola, causing prices to rise, and analysts generally expect actual canola area will top 22 million acres.

Soybeans

Soybean planting intentions came in at 5.9 million acres, which would be up by 2.9 per cent from 2025. Ontario remains the top growing area for soybeans, with acreage expected to increase by 0.2 per cent to 2.9 million acres.

Meanwhile, Manitoba farmers intend to plant 12.9 per cent more soybeans in 2026, with area forecast at 1.9 million acres.

Barley and oats

Barley area is expected to increase by 5.0 per cent on the year, at 6.4 million acres. That was in line with trade expectations.

Oats area is forecast at 2.9 million acres, which would be down by 3.1 per cent from 2025.

Corn

Canadian farmers expect to plant 3.8 million acres of corn for grain in 2026, up 1.7 per cent from one year earlier. Ontario is forecast to see the largest increase in corn area, at 5.4 per cent. If realized, that would see Ontario farmers plant a record 2.3 million acres of corn.

Pulses

Most pulse crops are forecast to see lower planted area in 2026, with lentil planting intentions down 5.5 per cent at 4.1 million acres; peas down 12.3 per cent at 3.1 million acres; and edible beans down 30.7 per cent at 295,000 acres.

Of the major Canadian pulse crops, only chickpeas are expected to see an increase on the year with planted area estimated at 575,000 acres, which would be up by 6.3 per cent.

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At its February annual agriculture outlook forum, the United States Department of Agriculture predicted corn plantings in the country would be down by four million acres this year while soybeans would be up by 3.8 million acres. Corn futures dropped sharply in late January on confirmation of the large 2025 crop but have subsequently trended steadily higher with the expectations for a smaller acreage base in 2026 contributing to the gains.

“We’ve seen a gradual steady increase in corn prices since the very bearish January crop report … it’s just grinding it’s way higher,” said Tom Lilja, of Progressive Ag in Fargo, North Dakota.

The next big report will be the USDA’s planting intentions estimates at the end of March. If corn area is down by four million acres on the year, Lilja expects the corn market could have more room to the upside — at least in the new crop contracts. However, he added that “we know we’re sitting on a good chunk of old crop corn.”

For soybeans, in addition to the likelihood of increased U.S. acres, Lilja said the large Brazilian crop created “a strong headwind on the market.”

Iran war

The escalating war in the Middle East between Iran and the U.S. sent crude oil and vegetable oil markets climbing higher, but the reaction so far has been more muted in the grain markets. Lilja was surprised by the reaction in wheat especially, as it had rallied sharply in tandem with oil four years ago when Russia invaded Ukraine.

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The company reported 23,088 carloads during the month, which was also a new February record. The company moved 2.395 million tonnes of grain in January 2026 with 24,688 carloads — both monthly records for January.

“This is the second straight monthly Canadian grain record and it continues a strong start to 2026 as our railroaders work safely and efficiently with our supply chain collaborators to move a record grain crop across Western Canada,” said Elizabeth Hucker, CPKC vice-president of sales and marketing bulk, in the news release.

CPKC transported more than 17.1 MMT of Canadian grain and grain products through the first 30 weeks of the 2025/26 marketing year, hitting the largest totals since the record setting 2020/21 crop year.

The volume of Canadian grain and grain products moving on CPKC tracks have exceeded the average supply chain capacity targets outlined in the company’s annual grain service plan in multiple weeks in 2025/26.

CPKC said it was “critical that all supply chain participants, including customer loading facilities and terminal operators loading grain into vessels at ports, operate at full capacity to sustain this strong momentum.”

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