Analyst sees less corn, more soy in U.S. in 2014-15

The United States’ corn crop is expected to be smaller in 2014-15 compared to this year, while soybean production should increase.

Speaking at the Cereals North America global grain conference in Winnipeg, Dr. Bill Tierney, chief economist with AgResource, projected U.S. corn production in 2014-15 would total 13.77 billion bushels, which compares to his estimate for the 2013-14 crop of 13.865 billion bushels.

USDA estimated in its September report that the U.S. corn crop would produce 13.843 billion bushels, though that number is expected to increase in their Nov. 8 supply and demand report.

Corn yields in the U.S. should be up a little bit next year, Tierney said, adding that planted area is expected to decrease slightly.

Though corn acres will be lower, Tierney expects producers in the U.S. will not cut corn acres dramatically for at least another two years because it will take that long for the market to find a real bottom.

He estimated the average U.S. farm price for corn would range between $2.80 to $5 per bushel in 2014-15, which compares with his 2013-14 estimate of $4.05 to $5.15/bu. (all figures US$). USDA’s current average farm price estimate is $4.40 to $5.20/bu.

U.S. soybean production may increase to 3.432 billion bu. in 2014-15, Tierney said, up from his 2013-14 estimate of 3.205 billion and the USDA’s September projection of 3.149 billion bu. for 2013-14.

U.S. soybean acreage would be up slightly next year compared to this year, with yields also slightly higher, he estimated. With better production in the U.S. and expected record-large crops out of South America, prices should continue to move lower.

He estimated the average farm price for soybeans in the U.S. to be $6.50 to $12/bu. in 2014-15, down from his estimate of $10.85 to $13.65 for 2013-14 and USDA’s 2013-14 guess of $11.50 to $13.50/bu.

— Terryn Shiells writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

Related story:
World needs more soybeans relative to corn, analyst says, Nov. 6, 2013

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