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Canadian canola stocks jump

CNS Canada — Stocks of Canadian canola have increased substantially, according to the latest estimate from Statistics Canada. Total stocks of oats, lentils and peas also rose, but not by as much as canola.

StatsCan on Monday pegged canola stocks, as of Dec. 31, 2017 at 14.15 million tonnes, up from the 2016 total of 13.38 million.

“That was slightly below the trade estimate,” said Bill Craddock, a farmer and trader in Winnipeg. “But I think it’s pretty neutral in terms of canola.”

The data fly in stark contrast though to what the industry had been thinking last summer, when analysts feared the country might run out of canola before the new crop was ready. Rationing efforts were made and the idea created a supportive ripple through the price structure.

However, that now seems a distant memory. “The overall sentiment of large supplies remains intact on trade thinking,” said Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada.

Even if canola or wheat had come in below trade expectations, he added, they are still both big enough not to create supply shortages.

For wheat, StatsCan pegged total stocks at 23.56 million tonnes, down by roughly 500,000 from the December 2016 estimate.

“Even though wheat was down 2.2 per cent the U.S. wheat market was still heading lower,” said Craddock. “That shows it’s not a factor for the U.S.”

Another trader noted some movement on soybeans as well. “Soybean stocks are up a million tonnes,” said Ken Ball of PI Financial in Winnipeg.

According to StatsCan, soybean stocks as of Dec. 31, 2017 came in at 4.31 million tonnes, up from just 3.3 million on Dec. 31, 2016.

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow CNS Canada at @CNSCanada on Twitter.

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