CBOT weekly outlook: Soy, corn to tilt lower moving forward

(Lisa Guenther photo)

CNS Canada — Following a U.S. government supply and demand report due out Thursday, soybeans and corn are expected to be sideways to lower as traders anticipate upcoming supplies, one U.S. analyst says.

“Technically we’ve kind of ran up to the higher end of our trading ranges. We probably can back off a little bit,” said Brian Rydlund, market analyst at CHS Hedging.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE) at 11 a.m. CT on Thursday. Investors had been pushing both corn and soybean values higher in anticipation.

After notching those highs, though, both commodities declined and are likely to continue that trend in coming sessions.

“I think it’ll be rangebound with a lower slant for both corn and beans,” Rydlund said.

He expects USDA data to show higher soybean supplies, as already-record yields may be upwardly revised — but those increases could be offset by stronger exports.

Corn yields projected by USDA in November surprised the trade, Rydlund said, adding he expects those numbers to hold steady or be revised lower.

“I don’t know if we’re looking for much change. I don’t know if anyone is looking for a real bullish report in the numbers.”

Outside of the report, traders are watching South American weather. “Brazil continues to be in pretty good shape. Argentina was a little too wet, and now it’s kind of dried out,” Rydlund said.

While Argentina is expected to see rain in the long-term forecast, it will likely miss excessively wet areas, he added.

Since last week, corn prices have lost close to two U.S. cents per bushel in the March contract, while soybeans have declined about four in the same contract.

Going forward, traders are starting to think about the U.S. planting season and weather, Rydlund said.

“What the acreage mix is going to be — those are the type of things that start getting talked about in January.”

— Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.


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