Commodity news Service Canada — CWB is estimating the Canadian canola crop will produce 12.18 million tonnes in 2015/16 (Aug/Jul), according to a supply and demand table released via the Market Research Services Twitter account on Wednesday.
The projection is below a previous estimate from the company of 12.60 to 13.00 million tonnes, which was released in the June 25, 2015 Pool Return Outlook report.
Drought in parts of the western Prairies, and excess moisture and other weather problems in the eastern regions are likely behind the reduced production prospects, analysts say.
The CWB projection compares to average trade guesses of 13.5 million, the company’s supply and demand table showed.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) released their own supply and demand tables on July 21, pegging Canadian canola production for 2014/15 at 14.30 million tonnes.
In 2014/15 Canadian canola production totaled 15.56 million tonnes, according to Statistics Canada figures.
The latest CWB outlook also pegged Canadian canola ending stocks at 488,000 tonnes for 2015/16, which is well below trade estimates of 925,000 tonnes shown on the company’s table, and down slightly from the AAFC projection of 500,000.
CWB is in the midst of conducting a Western Canada wide crop tour, with complete details set to be released on Friday, July 24.