MarketsFarm — Canadian farmers will seed more canola in the upcoming 2021-22 crop year, but solid demand will still cause ending stocks to tighten, according to the first new-crop supply/demand projections from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), released Monday.
The department forecast seeded canola area in the spring of 2021 at 21.37 million acres, up from 20.78 million seeded in 2020. Total canola production is forecast to rise to 19.9 million tonnes from 18.72 million in the current crop year.
However, canola ending stocks for the new crop are forecast to tighten to one million tonnes, from the already-tight 1.2 million-tonne projection for 2020-21. Canola carryout in 2019-20 came in at 3.13 million tonnes.
Seeded wheat area is also forecast to be up on the year, rising to 25.53 million acres. However, an expected reduction in yields would see total wheat production decline to 33.65 million tonnes, from 35.19 million tonnes in 2020-21.
Projected wheat ending stocks for 2021-22, at 6.3 million tonnes, would be in line with the 2020-21 forecast of 6.25 million, but up from the 5.5 million-tonne carryout from 2019-20.
While feed barley prices in Western Canada are strong, AAFC forecasts a seven per cent decline in barley area on the year, to 7.05 million acres, due to competition from oilseeds.
Pea and lentil acres are both forecast to see a slight increase on the year, at 4.32 million and 4.45 million respectively.
Tables: January 2021 estimates for major Canadian crops’ supply and demand: in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.