After a year marked with volatility, trade disputes and continued erosion of faith in rules based trade, panelists at the Canadian Crops Conference, held in Toronto in March, explained challenges in the international trade order and what Canada can do to improve its standing.

How can Canada stand out in a globalized market?

“The rest of the world, the rest of the sectors of the global economy, are finally getting to know what it felt like to be agriculture for a number of years,” said Jeff Mahon, director of StrategyCorp.

He pointed to non-tariff barriers and the weaponization of trade.

Canada has sought to overcome challenges through diversification, but Mahon said this may not be as easy as some are making it out to be.

“This whole movement is driven by, you know, roughly 75 per cent of our exports going to the United States. But the last I checked, Canadian agriculture is already pretty diversified,” he said.

“Telling Canadian agriculture it needs to diversify further is like telling a cayenne pepper it needs to be spicy.”

The questions are — how Canada can grow its market share and how reliant Canada should be on bigger markets like China and India. Mahon said it will be important to recognize there may not be alternatives to those markets and Canada will likely need to continue trading in both.

Win-win thinking

In a global market currently favouring buyers, Mahon said Canada may need to find new strategies to stand out.

“In some cases, that might mean selling more processed or value-added goods,” He said. “In other cases, particularly when we’re looking at new markets in developing countries, we might want to think about bringing a bigger Canadian value proposition to them,” he said.

For example, instead of just offering commodities, Canaa can offer access to a network of capability and research.

This is already happening — for example, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent trip to India saw the promise of a Canada-India pulse research centre.

“Now you’re using empathy,” Mahon said. “You’re going to a developing country, India, and you’re saying, ‘what do you need from us?’”

In a country like India, where nutritional security is a concern, Mahon said this type of win-win-thinking could be part of Canada’s strength as a partner.

He added that he’d heard a former Indonesian ambassador suggest Canada could help countries build processing capacity, leading to “mandatory supply chains” with Canadian exports at the centre.

Mahon said he would like to see governments rephrase requests to industry to diversify and rather ask what the industry needs to grow market share.

“Diversification and growing exports isn’t going to work unless Canada fixes some of the supply side problems,” he said.

These may not be entirely an industry issue.

“The government might want to look in the mirror a little bit more if it wants to be able to figure out how to help grow agricultural exports.”

Barriers within international trade

One barrier for Canadian agri-food trade in the EU has been the challenge of adapting to regulatory frameworks. The effects of European policies, like the Green Deal, Farm to Fork strategy, can sometimes be felt in Canada.

For example, The European Commission has proposed a bill that would effectively set pesticide tolerances at zero on imported grains, oilseeds, pulses and other agricultural commodities if those pesticides haven’t been approved for use in the EU.

The EU isn’t a primary destination for Canadian grain, oilseeds and pulses, but exports can be significant some years.

European politicians have argued that this levels the playing field so growers outside of Europe don’t have a competative advantage.

The Canadian government is lobbying for predictability said Greg MacDonald, a counsellor with the Mission of Canada to the EU.

Prime Minister Mark Carney is seen as a close friend in many countries, and now the government is attempting to leverage that, MacDonald said.

People shouldn’t think the EU is “closed for business on agriculture trade,” he added.

MacDonald suggested Canada could continue to work with the EU on regulatory alignment.

“How do we make the regulatory frameworks work for Canada with the broad political overview we have that we’re the trusted and reliable partner, and the EU calls us and asks, how can Canada provide product X?”

A loss of faith in rules-based trade

The past year has also seen attacks on the role of rules-based trade.

Edwini Kessie, director of the agriculture and commodities division at the World Trade Organization (WTO) said he felt the core principles of his organization are “under attack.”

He said the non-discrimination principle and the security and predictability of market access have come into question for some.

“These have been the binding core principles of the WTO, but I think increasingly there are questions as to the effectiveness of the WTO rules in creating a level playing field,” Kessie said.

“We see in the EU specifically, regulatory and policy developments that may be shifting away from some core tenants of WTO rules, which adds to uncertainty in the grains and oilseeds trade,” MacDonald said.

Kessie said the solution is not for the global trade system to turn its back on the existing rules and encouraged stakeholders not to give up on the WTO.

“There are changes which have to be made,” he said. “And I do hope that the WTO members will come together and effect the real changes, which will strengthen the rules-based multilateral trading system.”

“The current prosperity that we are witnessing the world is because of the rules-based system,” he said, “so we need to strengthen it.”

WTO ministerial talks in Yaounde, Camaroon at the end of March struggled to make headway on questions of reform and ultimately broke down after the group could not agree on renewing a moratorium on duties for electronic transmissions like digital streaming.

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“And very mixed in the direction they’re going,” Leclerc added.

She said some in the industry are saying the feedlots are full and feed prices are coming down, while other people indicated prices are largely unchanged.

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Leclerc said elevator prices are flat as well, but wheat prices have been pointing upward. That should lead to higher prices for feed wheat.

“They’re going to have to eventually buy it at a level where its comparable to where you can sell it elsewhere,” she said.

Feed prices were steady to higher across Western Canada, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire.

For the week ended April 1, feed barley gained seven cents in Alberta at C$5.01 to C$6.75 per bushel delivered and it added four cents in Manitoba at C$4.60 to C$4.75. Prices in Saskatchewan were unchanged at C$5.12 to C$5.45 bu./del.

As for feed wheat, prices were firmer, with the only increase in Manitoba of five cents at C$6.32 bu./del. Alberta was steady at C$5.97 to C$8.41 bu./del. and Saskatchewan held at C$7.30.

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Leduc, a fourth-generation producer who grows more than 10,000 acres of wheat, durum, mustard, canola, peas and lentils in an area dominated by grazing cattle, thinks that the long-awaited technological improvement, a plant that produces canola-like oil, could help him eke out a few more dollars per acre.

“All I’m trying to do is improve the bottom line of our farm,” he said.

WHY IT MATTERS: Mustard growers worry BASF’s InVigor Gold hybrid will destroy Canada’s condiment mustard industry. BASF says the oilseed could be grown safely in arid regions where canola routinely fails.

But Trent Dewar, who farms elsewhere in the Canadian semi-desert known as Palliser’s Triangle, fears the new GMO mustard plant will ruin the pure mustard he grows for the premium Dijon bottlers in France, the United States and Japan, as well as other specialty mustards. The industry is worth about $150 million (C$209 million) in exports annually — only a fraction of the $8.9 billion (C$12.4 billion) canola exports market. But in a geography where canola fails more often than it flourishes, mustard has been the lifeblood of many farms since growers started planting it 90 years ago.

“Everybody I’ve talked to personally is quite shell-shocked that this would even be considered,” he said.

Mustard is a tiny crop in Canada, with usually less than 200,000 metric tons of mustard produced by a few hundred farmers. Mustard production soars and sags with volatile world prices and local weather, like other specialty crops. Canadian canola growers, by contrast, usually plant more than 20 million acres of their crop, which produces upwards of 19 million metric tons. That makes canola Canada’s biggest source of crop income by far.

That’s why so many are excited about the drought-resistant GMO mustard plant. Global agricultural giant BASF hopes to win approval from Canadian and U.S. agencies for commercialization as soon as next year in the U.S. and a couple of years later in Canada.

It’s not without risk, however. The GMO plant looks nearly identical to a traditional mustard plant. Neighboring fields could be contaminated with seeds and pollen carried on the wind or by bees. Both traditional brown and oriental mustards and the new mustard canola are brassica junceas, so they can breed, with pollen from one type fertilizing the other.

“It has the potential of wrecking a whole industry,” said farmer Norm Hall, the chair of SaskMustard, which represents Saskatchewan’s mustard growers. The group is lobbying the government in Ottawa to keep the crop out of Canada.

Brent Collins, head of BASF’s seeds and traits division in Canada, said the crop was an “innovation” that would “truly unlock new canola acres, helping meet market demand.”

The French connection

France, which sources about half its mustard supplies from Canada, has a strict non-GMO standard. Other large global buyers are similarly stringent. Many Canadian mustard growers and sellers fear the door could slam shut if traces of the hybrid mustard-canola were detected.

“They look at it like a razor blade that shows up in a bag of rice,” said Peter Gorski of Broadgrain, a company that sells Canadian specialty crops like mustard to buyers around the world.

Foreign buyers have not said how they will respond if GMO traces appear. Most contracts contain a commitment to be non-GMO, and two contracts shared with Reuters contained that specification. A French law limits the presence of GMOs in the food supply, but the threshold of acceptable traces is mostly left to the buyer.

Christophe Planes, sales and marketing director for French mustard processor Reine de Dijon, said the GMO plant could spell trouble for Canadian exports.

About half of the company’s seeds are sourced from Canada, he said, adding: “We’re clearly committed to a non-GMO policy.”

“Since France is quite strict regarding GMOs we systematically check all our supplies to ensure that there are no traces, or very few traces,” Planes said.

Since Canada’s crippling drought of 2021, which hampered mustard production and triggered panic in French shoppers finding grocery store shelves bare of the condiment, France has boosted its own domestic supplies. There are other sources for mustard seed, such as Argentina, Germany and Ukraine, but Canadian mustard is both high quality and cheap, Planes said. Switching could affect quality and raise prices.

A flax grower’s nightmare, revisited

Canadian mustard growers are haunted by a historical precedent: tainted flax. Canada lost a well-paying and steady European market for flax when traces of a GMO variety called Triffid were found in European food products in 2009. Exports plunged and never recovered.

Mustard is an ancient crop, its seeds found in stone-age settlements of the Near East, in ancient Sumerian texts, and even in the tomb of Egypt’s Pharaoh Tutankhamun. In the Bible, Jesus of Nazareth told a parable about the mustard seed.

By contrast, the mustard-canola hybrid is a 21st-century scientific marvel, employing decades of traditional plant breeding and later GMO methods to produce a mustard plant that produces a version of canola oil, and that survives a herbicide controlling the plague of tumbleweeds in western North America. Many farmers in the mustard-growing region have been eagerly awaiting this new crop since the 1990s, but it has been a tortuous scientific development process. Canola is a cool-weather crop that thrives in northern latitudes like Canada, but climate change’s bouts of extreme heat and drought are expected to make it more challenging to grow.

Some of the original research into using a mustard plant to produce canola-like seed was done by scientists working for a farmers’ cooperative in the 1990s, as well as by university researchers. Now global agriculture giant BASF has brought what it calls InVigor Gold to the cusp of commercialization.

Traditional clashes with bold and new

From discussions with mustard and canola industry key players, it is clear that the two camps have sharply different assessments of whether the GMO mustard can flourish alongside traditional mustard.

“We know we can’t co-exist,” said Rick Mitzel, executive director of Sask Mustard.

BASF, however, thinks two million acres of its mustard-canola could be grown in arid areas of Canada and the U.S., with safeguards against pollen flow and seed spread between mustard and canola fields.

“We understand the areas that mustard growers are concerned about and it’s our responsibility to be able to explain what exactly we’re doing to be able to appease some of these concerns,” said Collins.

The two sides have sporadically met in recent years, but as the widespread release of the crop approaches, mustard growers and the mustard industry have grown desperate.

At an industry meeting this winter, mustard growers and merchants called for their representatives to take legal and political action to block the introduction of InVigor Gold. But Hall told them it would be an “uphill battle” because BASF is following the usual crop development protocols, and market impact is not considered during the Canadian crop approval processes.

Kacy Gehring of Mountain States Oilseeds, a U.S. mustard merchant in American Falls, Idaho, said the concern about GMO contamination destroying markets could trigger farmers to just stop growing mustard. That wouldn’t just be a problem for companies like hers, but also bad for world culinary culture, she said.

Farmer Leduc understands the worries of his mustard-growing neighbors, but doesn’t apologize for wanting to get InVigor Gold into his fields as soon as possible. Farming in an arid region isn’t easy, but it’s where his great-grandfather settled. He needs every survival tool he can get.

“I wish I was in a wetter part of the province,” he said.

— Additional reporting by Sybille de la Hamaide and Gus Trompiz in France.

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Planting of wheat, canola and other crops is set to gather pace this month across much of Australia and farmers need ample supplies of crop nutrients to support early growth.

The price of urea in Australia was quoted around A$1,350 (C$1,298) per ton this week, up about 60 per cent since the beginning of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, analysts said. Australian diesel prices are up 88 per cent over the same period.

“Farmers are trying to reduce fertilizer application and switching planting from nitrogen hungry crops like wheat and canola into feed barley,” said Dennis Voznesenski, an agricultural analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“Some are also reducing planted area, but this so far is minimal,” he said.

Australia’s wheat planting could drop by 10 per cent to 12 per cent given the current conditions, from 12.4 million hectares a year ago, an agricultural broker and an analyst said. Cultivation of canola is also likely to decline despite higher returns, they said. Both declined to be named.

Australia is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter and No. 2 supplier of canola, selling to importers across Asia, the Middle East and Europe. It also sells crops such as barley, chickpeas and pulses.

Straight of Hormuz is fertilizer choke point

Farmers worldwide are struggling to secure fertilizer supplies as planting season in key countries gets underway, with the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 30 per cent of globally traded fertilizers, severely disrupted by the Iran war.

Bank of America warned that the conflict threatens 65 per cent to 70 per cent of global supplies of urea, a key nitrogen fertilizer, with prices already up 30 per cent to 40 per cent.

U.S. farmers plan to plant less corn and more soybeans in 2026 than last year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said this week. China has curbed fertilizer exports, while India is tapping alternative sources to boost supplies for summer-sown crops.

Corn, wheat and canola usually require higher application of urea than barley and pulses.

“Australia typically relies on China for urea, but export curbs have limited shipments,” said StoneX analyst Josh Linville.

“Buyers turned to Indonesia, only to face further constraints there and by the time they sought supplies from the Middle East, the war had already started and the Strait of Hormuz had closed.”

Crops need fertilizer at the start of planting as well as in development and pre-maturity stages. Crops planted in April and May are harvested in November and December.

“It is a big issue as the cost of farming has risen sharply in the last one month,” said Tobin Gorey, founder of commodities consultancy Cornucopia in Sydney.

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India

The USDA attaché in New Delhi projected India’s 2026/27 canola production at 12.10 million tonnes, slightly higher than the 2025/26 harvest of 11.90 million.

While yields are expected to hold at 1.31 tonnes per hectare, the attaché forecast Indian farmers to harvest more area – 9.25 million hectares versus 9.10 million in 2025/26.

“(Canola) is expected to remain profitable, with prices sufficient to cover input costs and ensure solid margins for growers,” the attaché wrote.

WHY IT MATTERS: India is among the largest canola producers in the world and Japan is a major oilseed importer.

Despite India being one of the world’s top canola growers, the country does not import or export the crop.

The New Delhi desk estimated the domestic crush will bump up to 10.90 million tonnes from 10.70 million, while domestic consumption is to match the 2026/27 crop. Ending stocks are to hold at 569,000 tonnes.

Japan

As for Japan, it will continue to be one of the major canola importers. However those for 2026/27 are to dip to 2.15 million tonnes from 2.16 million the year before.

The USDA attaché in Tokyo said the bulk of Japan’s canola imports come from Canada, but the supplier’s share has dropped from about 96 per cent of Japan’s imports to around 83 per cent. Australia has remained a major source of canola for Japan.

“Japanese crushers have noted higher oil extraction rates from Australian canola compared to Canadian seeds, though meal extraction rates are converse,” the attaché said.

Japan’s domestic canola crop is to be only 3,000 tonnes.

Virtually all of the country’s canola will be crushed, with a mere 5,000 tonnes for feed, waste and domestic consumption.

Ending stocks are to remain stable at 200,000 tonnes.

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On April 1, profit-taking took May canola down C$13.30/tonne to close at C$718.50. However, it has still remained between C$710 to C$740 since March 24.

Phil Speiss from RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg said while canola prices have been in a bullish trend line over the past few months, fundamentals are leaning bearish due to large stocks and high acreage expectations this year.

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A canola contract closing below its 20-day average in two straight sessions is an indicator of a downturn, he added.

“That’s step one. Get a close below the trend line,” Speiss said. “If you can get (two closes below), well now you start talking maybe there’s a potential downside. You look at targets from previous days. On (March 23), we saw a low of C$708.70/tonne and (the week) before that, we saw C$700.60. Those would become targets on the downside.”

Canola prices are largely tied to crude oil and especially to Chicago soyoil, but Speiss said diesel and heating oil markets are also influencing the oilseed.

“(Heating oil) is the most firm out of the energy markets,” he said. “There is a connection there on the bio side of things … If you look at a heating oil chart, it’s going straight up. If you’re playing biofuel and you’re a speculator or large managed money and you see that play, you’re just feeding into that canola length.”

Canola crush margins are also remarkably strong with the May contract at C$333.64/tonne as of March 31, more than double from a year earlier (C$165.31). However, Speiss noted that margins are sure to come down soon.

“It’s parabolic,” he said. “We know the crush pace is the crush pace. We know that they’re full through summer. At some point, it’s just a number. From a futures perspective, we see crush demand getting pushed further and further out the curve: November, January 2027, March 2027 … (Crush margins) don’t play too much of a role anymore.”

As for where canola prices could go in the near future, Speiss said they’re as uncertain as the war itself.

“We’re so tied to the geopoliticals right now, it’s an impossibility,” he said. “If you want to bet on anything, the trend just stays intact until you break it.”

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This extends the $250,000 limit, which was set in March 2025.

Producers can receive an additional $250,000 interest free on canola only for a total of $500,000.

“By increasing the interest-free portion of the Advance Payments Program, we’re helping farmers manage costs, while giving them more flexibility to market their products on their terms,” Agriculture and Agri-Food Minister Heath MacDonald said in an April 1 news release.

The program offers up to $1 million to Canadian farmers based on the expected value of their agricultural products. Twenty-four industry groups across Canada deliver the program.

The Canadian Federation of Agriculture praised the extension of the $250,000 interest-free limit.

“Maintaining the $250,000 interest free portion reflects the realities farmers are facing today,” said CFA president Keith Currie.

“We are seeing continued volatility in input costs, supply chains and global markets, and this type of support is important in helping farmers navigate those pressures.”

“We look forward to continuing to work with government to secure a permanent increase to the interest free portion of the program, so that producers have the predictability they need to make informed business decisions in an increasingly complex operating environment,” he added.

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Shares of Hellmann’s mayonnaise owner Unilever and Frank’s RedHot sauce maker McCormick fell on Tuesday following the announcement over concerns about the transaction’s structure, long path to closing and antitrust risks.

The top U.S. spice maker, home to more than 30 household brands, is playing the long game, some analysts said.

While many food companies are scrambling to reformulate products and resize portions as the surging popularity of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs reshapes eating habits, McCormick argues that flavor will remain essential even as calorie counts fall.

“We will continue to flavor calories while others compete for them,” McCormick CEO Brendan Foley, a packaged-food industry veteran, said on a call with investors on Tuesday.

“As consumers increasingly focus on cooking at home, adding more protein and produce, and pursuing healthier lifestyles, flavor plays a critical role in elevating those choices,” Foley said.

The GLP-1 bet

The surge in weight-loss drug use has consumers craving more flavor ‌in their food, leading to condiment and spice makers benefiting and attracting more interest in the M&A marketplace, dealmakers have said.

“Consumers shifting away from fatty, greasy, or overly sweet foods … creates a massive opportunity for flavor enhancers (spices and hot sauces) that provide sensory satisfaction without adding calories,” said Timothy Malefyt, professor of marketing at the Gabelli School of Business at Fordham University.

The deal will also help the U.S. company tap into Knorr stock cubes maker Unilever’s global scale and expertise, executives said on Tuesday’s investor call. Unilever executives highlighted its popular flavors such as Asian and Chinese.

“McCormick with this could be well-positioned to create the right nutritional functional benefit in food that is lacking in America right now,” said Mike Anstey, founder of Pilot Lite, a global CPG (consumer packaged goods) commercialization partner.

It would also open up key emerging markets such as Brazil, China and countries across Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA).

“(The deal) represents a step-change in scale, broadening MKC’s exposure to faster-growing emerging markets and expanding opportunities for its foodservice platform,” Jefferies analyst Scott Marks said in a note.

Unkind market conditions

McCormick is seeking new markets and flavors against the backdrop of a tough U.S. market, where consumers are eating healthier and also looking for cheaper pantry alternatives and smaller pack sizes to stretch budgets hit by inflation.

“We’re certainly aware of the near-term pressures facing not just the food industry but broadly … the conflict in the Middle East and the broader CPG space. However, we continue to believe in just the long-term fundamentals that really underpin the confidence in this combination,” McCormick’s Foley said.

The company’s total volume growth has slowed over the last year, and was down 0.7 per cent in the most recently reported quarter, falling across both its consumer brands and flavor solutions segments.

“Despite the combination’s strategic merits, we think this may be a ploy to incite growth in an industry where gains have stagnated,” said Erin Lash, analyst at Morningstar Research.

Rival Kraft Heinz, which media reports said had explored a bid for Unilever’s food business, underscored the tougher U.S. market when it paused plans for a split.

“Investors should look at this transaction more optimistically than broken deals like Kraft Heinz because it creates value through greater depth in a single category, flavorings, rather than diversification,” said TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow in a note.

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The loonie also gave up more than 9/10ths of a cent, making wheat and durum more appealing to export customers.

Canadian Western Red Spring

Average CWRS (13.5 per cent) prices advanced C$14.60 to C$25.70 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Prices ranged from about C$278.10 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$304.70 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from C$36.20 to C$62.70 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar-denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

CWRS basis levels

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars (C$1=US$0.7174), CWRS bids ranged from US$199.50 to US$218.60 per tonne. That would put the currency-adjusted basis levels at about US$23.40 to US$42.40 below the futures.

Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada ranged from C$16.80 to C$30.50 below the futures.

Canadian Prairie Spring Red

Average CPRS (11.5 per cent) wheat prices increased C$15.90 to C$17.30 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$252.60 per tonne in northeastern Saskatchewan to C$281.20 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Canadian Western Amber Durum

Average CWAD prices were up more moderately, adding 40 cents to C$1.50 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$282.20 per tonne in northwestern Saskatchewan to C$296.90 per tonne in western Manitoba.

U.S. wheat complex

The May spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts Canada are based off of, was quoted at US$6.5850 per bushel on March 31, advancing 27.25 cents on the week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The May Kansas City wheat contract was quoted at US$6.3550 per bushel on March 31, jumping 31.50 cents.

The May Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$6.1625 per bushel March 31, gaining 26.25 cents.

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Highlights

• Current indications are that a cooler-than-average weather pattern will persist for the next seven to 10 days.
• With no major systems expected to hit Alberta over the next week, much of the province will see relatively quiet weather. Sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected to dominate most days.
• From Wednesday through Friday, Manitoba and Saskatchewan can expect partly or mostly cloudy skies and the chance of occasional flurries.

Overview

The weather models had a fairly good handle on the overall pattern over the past week, but as is usual at this time of year, the finer details were a little off. What is perhaps more notable is how consistent the broader pattern has been, which has allowed models to perform reasonably well even further out. Over the past three to four weeks, there has been very little change in the large-scale setup, and that consistency looks to continue.

While temperatures will gradually trend upward as we move into spring, the overall cooler-than-average pattern remains firmly in place. Current indications suggest this will persist for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

• More weather coverage: Farmers’ Almanac rescued from closure

We begin this forecast period with high pressure firmly entrenched across the northern Prairies. Meanwhile, the main storm track is taking shape across the northern United States. This places much of the agricultural Prairies in a sort of in-between zone — caught between the dominant influence of northern high pressure and more active weather to the south.

The good news, depending on your perspective, is that most heavier precipitation events are expected to remain south of the border through this forecast period. The downside? Any significant early spring warmth will also stay to our south.

For areas still holding onto snowpack, this means the slow, gradual melt will continue rather than a rapid spring runoff.

Alberta

With no major systems expected to hit the province over the next week, much of Alberta will see relatively quiet weather. Sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected to dominate most days.

That said, the models are tracking an area of low pressure that’s pushing in from the Pacific and cutting through Montana on Thursday into Friday. This system will likely bring increased cloud cover along with scattered showers or flurries to southern Alberta late Thursday. Central and northern regions can expect partly cloudy skies with the occasional flurry.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side through this period, with daytime highs generally in the 0 to 3°C range and overnight lows dipping to around -6°C.

Conditions should improve heading into the weekend as the Montana low shifts eastward and weak upper-level ridging builds into the province. This should allow for more sunshine and warmth with daytime highs rising into the 7 to 11°C range across most regions.

Looking ahead to early next week, the models suggest an area of low pressure developing over northern Alberta. This could bring increased cloud cover and periods of snow to northern parts of the province.

Farther south, a southerly flow ahead of the system may allow milder air to push in, potentially lifting daytime highs into the mid-teens. As has been the case with this pattern, confidence in this portion of the forecast remains low and will need to be monitored.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

We begin the forecast period with a departing frontal system that brought anywhere from a light dusting of snow to upwards of 10 to 15 cm in some areas. In its wake, weak high pressure will attempt to build into the region, but conditions are expected to remain somewhat unsettled.

From Wednesday through Friday, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and the chance of occasional flurries. Daytime highs will largely depend on cloud cover — generally hovering around the freezing mark under thicker clouds but climbing to around 5°C in sunnier areas.

Heading into the weekend, a more defined battle sets up between high pressure to the north and the active storm track to the south. This will result in a mix of sunny to partly cloudy conditions. Southern regions will likely see more cloud cover given their proximity to the storm track, while northern areas should benefit from increased sunshine.

• More weather coverage: Get farmers in on federal water security strategy planning, CFA says

Temperatures over the weekend are expected to reach around 5°C, which is near to slightly below seasonal averages for this time of year.

Early next week, attention turns to the potential development of a low pressure system over northern Alberta. If this system evolves as currently projected, it could draw milder air northward across the southern Prairies on Tuesday and Wednesday. This could push daytime highs closer to the 10°C mark.

Confidence remains low regarding the exact evolution of this system. Current model runs indicate the potential for another round of accumulating snowfall by midweek, likely in the Wednesday to Thursday timeframe, but details on track, intensity, and precipitation type remain uncertain.

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