ICE weekly outlook: Canola values stay rangebound

ICE November 2019 canola with Bollinger (20,2) bands. (Barchart)

MarketsFarm — One canola trader wouldn’t go so far as to calling the canola market lifeless, but it has remained rangebound for most of the week.

That’s mainly due to pressure from harvest activity, which has carried on at an impressive pace on the Canadian Prairies despite being mired with difficult weather conditions.

“I’ve talked to a number of clients in northwestern and central Saskatchewan that are actually wrapping up harvest, or at least made good progress,” said Keith Ferley of RBC Dominion Securities.

“That’s good to hear.”

Similarly, the most recent report from Manitoba Agriculture reported 80 per cent of the province’s canola is in the bin. However, the three-year average at this time of year is 87 per cent complete.

Manitoba’s forecast for the rest of the week is calling for seasonable temperatures, which may get combines going again. However, canola that remains on the field may stay there until the ground freezes.

Following Manitoba’s snowy long weekend, trade volumes on Tuesday were substantially larger than normal. On Tuesday, 53,845 contracts were traded, with spreading accounting for 42,210 contracts traded.

Small specs have been a feature of buyers lately, Ferley said. He expects market activity to remain rangebound.

Canola markets will also be watching in weeks to come to see if a bona fide trade deal will materialize between the U.S. and China.

— Marlo Glass reports for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.


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