CNS Canada — Yields are generally beating earlier expectations as the harvest progresses across Western Canada, which should lead to upward revisions to canola and wheat when Statistics Canada releases its latest production survey results Friday.
However, those numbers still may be underreported, and further revisions are expected in subsequent reports.
“As the harvest is moving along, we’re seeing harvest results come in better than what people were thinking prior to getting in the field,” said Jon Driedger, senior analyst with FarmLink Marketing Solutions.
“StatsCan is notorious for revising crop estimates higher long after the fact,” he added.
Pre-report trade estimates for canola range from roughly 13.5 million to 15.2 million tonnes, which would compare with the August estimate of 13.3 million tonnes and the model-based forecast released in September of 14.4 million. In 2014-15 Canadian farmers grew 16.4 million tonnes of canola.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if the final number came in above 15 (million),” said Driedger, although he was uncertain if the October report would be that large.
All-wheat production is forecast at anywhere from 24.7 million to 26.5 million tonnes, which compares with the August estimate of 24.6 million and the year-ago level of 29.4 million tonnes.
Of that total, durum production is estimated at 4.5 million to 5.1 million tonnes. Canadian farmers grew 5.2 million tonnes of durum in 2014-15.
While drought conditions caused concerns early in the growing season, “weather conditions improved as we went along… with better yields even in some of the worst-hit areas,” said Neil Townsend, director of market research services for G3 Canada, formerly CWB.
Townsend attributed the better-than-expected crops in part to improved varieties and genetics.
— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.
Table: Pre-report estimates as of Sept. 30, 2015, ahead of Statistics Canada’s Oct. 2, 2015 report. StatsCan estimates from August and 2014-15 numbers included for comparison. Production in millions of tonnes.
|Durum||4.500 – 5.100||4.467||5.193|
|All wheat||24.700 – 26.500||24.625||29.420|
|Oats||3.000 – 3.400||3.312||2.979|
|Barley||6.900 – 7.400||7.305||7.119|
|Flaxseed||0.850 – 0.950||0.884||0.873|
|Canola||13.500 – 15.200||13.343||16.410|
|Peas||2.800 – 3.200||2.921||3.810|