StatsCan comes in at low end of expectations for canola

(Dave Bedard photo)

CNS Canada — Despite an upward revision of nearly a million tonnes in Statistics Canada’s latest report, most analysts expect canola production will keep climbing further.

StatsCan on Friday morning released its updated grain/oilseed production estimates, with data collected through surveys taken between Sept. 3 and 13.

Canola production numbers came in at 14.3 million tonnes, which compares to 13.3 million in the previous report. Canada grew 16.4 million tonnes of canola in 2014.

Jonathon Driedger of FarmLink Marketing Solutions, near Grunthal, Man., described the report as pretty uneventful.

“Most numbers came in line with what the trade was expecting. Probably in the case of canola the number is pretty close to the recent number StatsCan has put out with their different methodology,” he said, referring to the agency’s September report which took into account satellite data and environmental factors along with survey responses.

Another analyst agreed with the notion that canola will likely keep increasing in subsequent reports.

“The next report is going to be closer to 15 (million tonnes) than 14.5, I can guarantee you,” said Wayne Palmer of Agri-Trend Marketing in Winnipeg.

Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada said he thinks the StatsCan survey likely missed the period when yields started to increase as a result of the late summer rain.

“The last third or half of this harvest is probably where some of the bigger yields are. This survey was from the 3rd (of September) to the 13th, so it didn’t capture that.”

Most of the other crop estimates, he said, were in line with what he expected, except for barley.

“StatsCan boosted the harvest area by 138,000 acres, which is a bit unusual,” he said, adding that if anything, he thought barley would have lost acreage. Canada grew 7.1 million tonnes of barley last year.

StatsCan pegged barley production in today’s report at 7.6 million tonnes, compared to 7.3 million in the previous report.

All-wheat production also rose by a significant margin. StatsCan pegged it in today’s report at 26.1 million tonnes, which compares to 24.6 million in the previous report. Last year Canada grew 29.4 million tonnes of all wheat.

Keith Ferley of RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg said he was a little surprised by the increase but doesn’t expect it to rise much further in any subsequent reports.

“The cereals didn’t respond in the dry western regions as well as the canola did, because the rains came too late for them,” he explained.

For Jubinville’s part, he thinks all-wheat production numbers could still keep climbing.

“I won’t be surprised if the yield average gets bumped up more… we could see a 27 million (-tonne) wheat crop,” he said.

Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow CNS Canada at @CNSCanada on Twitter.

Table: A quick summary of Statistics Canada’s latest crop production estimates for 2015-16, in millions of tonnes. Pre-report estimates and final 2014-15 figures included for comparison.

October.    . Pre-report.                . August.       .  
 .                    . 2015-16 ideas 2015-16 2014-15
All wheat 26.061 24.700 – 26.500 24.625 29.419
Durum 4.744 4.500 – 5.100 4.467 5.193
Oats 3.292 3.000 – 3.400 3.312 2.979
Barley 7.610 6.900 – 7.400 7.305 7.119
Flaxseed 0.889 0.850 – 0.950 0.884 0.873
Canola 14.297 13.500 – 15.200 13.343 16.410
Peas 3.156 2.800 – 3.200 2.921 3.810


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