North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola drops while soybeans rise

By Phil Franz-Warkentin and Dave Sims, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, Dec. 5 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures Canada canola futures were down on Monday, despite a rally in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans, as traders positioned themselves ahead of Tuesday’s Statistics Canada production report.

While cold and wet conditions caused harvest delays across much of Western Canada, average trade guesses expect canola production will come in above the 18.4 million tonnes grown in 2015. However, whether or not the StatsCan numbers confirm those ideas remains to be seen, given the late harvest and timing of the survey.

The strength in CBOT soybeans did provide some underlying support throughout the session. However, soyoil lagged to the upside, and the softer tone there weighed somewhat on canola.

Solid exporter and domestic crusher demand helped limit the losses, while a lack of significant farmer selling was also said to be somewhat supportive.

About 32,690 canola contracts were traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 30,843 contracts changed hands.

Milling wheat, durum, and barley were all untraded, although wheat prices were revised after the close.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade finished 11 to 16 cents per bushel higher on Monday, as demand for supplies remained strong. China purchased approximately 425,000 beans, according to the USDA.

Gains in soymeal were supportive for the beans.
Export inspections came in higher than expected at 1.9 million tonnes.

On the other side, weather in South American growing regions was generally favourable, which limited the gains.

SOYOIL futures were slightly lower on Monday, with losses in crude oil behind some of the weakness.

SOYMEAL futures posted strong gains on Monday due to good demand from the livestock sector.

CORN futures in Chicago were 11 to 12 cents per bushel higher on Monday, taking strength from spill-over gains in soybeans and chart-based trading.

Demand for US corn is solid amid a scramble for space as US elevators are largely filled to capacity.

However, losses in crude oil were bearish for values.

WHEAT futures in Chicago ended two to four cents per bushel higher on Monday.

The market was correcting somewhat after winter wheat markets hit contracts lows last week.

The wheat harvests in Argentina and Australia are looking very good right now. According to one estimate they could be up by eight to nine million tonnes.

Futures Prices as of December 5, 2016

Canola
2016-12-05 13:19
Price Change
Jan 527.30 -2.00
Mar 533.20 -2.70
May 537.70 -3.20
Jul 537.80 -3.60
Milling Wheat
2016-12-05 14:05
Price Change
Dec 234.00 -1.00
Mar 238.00 -1.00
May 242.00 1.00
Jul 243.00 1.00
Durum
2016-12-05 14:05
Price Change
Dec 315.00 0.00
Mar 323.00 0.00
May 326.00 0.00
Jul 327.00 0.00
New Barley
2016-12-05 14:05
Price Change
Dec 138.00 0.00
Mar 142.00 0.00
May 144.00 0.00
Jul 145.00 0.00

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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