North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola holds onto gains after StatsCan report

By Phil Franz-Warkentin and Dave Sims, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, Dec. 6 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures Canada canola futures held onto small gains in most months on Tuesday, as strength in the US soy complex and a relatively favourable Statistics Canada production report provided support.

StatsCan pegged this year’s canola crop at 18.4 million tonnes. That was right in line with last year’s level, but below average trade estimates.

While many industry participants anticipate an upward revision to the StatsCan number in future reports, the headline number was deemed supportive as some demand may need to be rationed going forward.

Gains in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans and soyoil, along with a weaker tone in the Canadian dollar, contributed to the firmer tone in canola.

However, canola ran into resistance to the upside, and finished well off its highs for the day.

About 24,675 canola contracts were traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 32,690 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 21,484 of the contracts traded.

Milling wheat, durum, and barley were all untraded, although wheat prices were revised after the close.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade finished 4 to 5 cents per bushel higher on Tuesday, as dry weather in Argentina sparked ideas of looming demand for US supplies.

According to the USDA, private exporters booked sales of 378,000 tonnes to unknown destinations.

Resistance has been pegged at US$10.65 per bushel.

On the other side, Brazil’s soybean crop is estimated to be 90 percent planted, which is ahead of the average pace of 85 percent, according to a report.

SOYOIL futures were stronger on Tuesday, taking direction from gains in soybeans.

SOYMEAL futures ended higher with follow-through buying on the heels of yesterday’s sharp gains.

CORN futures in Chicago were slightly higher in chart-based buying with spillover support from soybeans.

Slow selling by US farmers lent support to the market.
However, some traders took profits, which offset some of the gains.

WHEAT futures in Chicago ended a penny lower on Tuesday after new estimates were made predicting larger than expected wheat crops in Australia and Canada. The Australian government pegged their crop at 32.6 million bushels. Canada’s crop was estimated to be 31.7 million tonnes by Statistics Canada.

Technical selling was also a feature of the day.

Futures Prices as of December 6, 2016

2016-12-06 13:19
Price Change
Jan 528.70 1.40
Mar 534.70 1.50
May 540.10 2.40
Jul 541.20 3.40
Milling Wheat
2016-12-06 14:05
Price Change
Dec 233.00 -1.00
Mar 238.00 0.00
May 241.00 -1.00
Jul 243.00 0.00
2016-12-06 14:05
Price Change
Dec 315.00 0.00
Mar 323.00 0.00
May 326.00 0.00
Jul 327.00 0.00
New Barley
2016-12-06 14:05
Price Change
Dec 138.00 0.00
Mar 142.00 0.00
May 144.00 0.00
Jul 145.00 0.00

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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