The global 2009/10 rapeseed crop is likely to fall to 61.64 million tonnes from 62.62 million tonnes in 2008/09, and prices are likely to rise because of poorer harvests in several major producers, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast July 14.
The crop in key exporter Ukraine is forecast at only 1.50 million tonnes, down from 2.87 million tonnes in 2008/09, sharply reducing the country’s export surplus, Oil World said.
Canada’s rapeseed/canola crop is expected to fall sharply to 10.20 million tonnes, from 12.64 million tonnes last season, partly because of poor weather in major Canadian production regions, it said.
Canada’s 2009/10 exports are forecast to fall to 6.0 million tonnes from the record 7.88 million tonnes expected in 2008/09. Of this, Canada’s 2009/10 exports to China are likely to fall to 1.20 million tonnes against 2.83 million tonnes in 2008/09.
The EU crop is forecast to fall only moderately to 18.47 million tonnes from 18.94 million tonnes in 2008/09. Crops in key producers Germany and France are likely to be little changed on the year but eastern EU countries are faring worse, it said.
Poland’s harvest is expected to fall to 1.95 million tonnes from 2.13 million tonnes.
If confirmed, the tighter global supplies will support prices in coming months, it said.
“We expect prices of canola and rapeseed to strengthen relative to soybeans in 2009/10 and develop a premium,” it said. “At the moment canola and rapeseed prices are undervalued due to the prospective sharp declines in Canadian and Ukrainian supplies next season.”