Canadian farmers who pulled off some big high-quality crops last year despite volatile weather appear to be in line for a warmer, wetter summer, David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment Canada said Jan. 11.
“That’s a pretty good-news situation,” Phillips said in an interview with Reuters. “I think most farmers would go to the bank on that.”
Last year, Western Canada crops overcame a cool early summer, serious flooding in southern Manitoba and a wet October harvest period, thanks to an unusually warm September and a dry, mild November.
The worst drought in decades in Alberta and west-central Saskatchewan, however, dried up pastures and produced pockets of stunted crops.
Farmers will need favourable summer weather because the winter will likely be dry, Phillips said. The Prairies usually see milder, drier winters during years of El Nino, an abnormal warming of waters in the Pacific Ocean that alters global weather patterns.
Much of the Prairies received less-than-normal precipitation in the final months of 2009, including cent ral Alber ta, which just finished its driest decade on record, Phillips said.
“There’s been no recovery (from drought) at all,” he said. “Farmers I’m sure are worrying about the viability of agriculture because they are so much behind the eight-ball.”
Restoring soil moisture will take more than a few favourable months, considering how long Alberta has been dry, Phillips said. But the long-range forecast hints summer conditions may be better than they were last year, when slow pasture growth forced ranchers to feed hay to cattle in summer, leaving them short of feed in winter.
For both the spring (March through May) and summer periods (June through August), Environment Canada predicts warmer and wetter than usual weather, although Phillips cautions that the forecast can’t say whether the increases will be slight or extreme. Much also depends on favorable timing of rains.
Alberta’s precipitation this spring looks to be near normal, while most of Saskatchewan, parts of which also suffered drought last year, should get wetter than normal weather.
Manitoba should also see more rain this summer, Phillips said.
Manitoba’s biggest worry last year was flooding of the flat, fertile Red River Valley. Fall precipitation was less in southern Manitoba than a year earlier and prospects of a drier winter and earlier spring thaw limit flood potential, Phillips said.