It’s obvious to Rob Graf, and many others in Canada’s grain industry, that the country needs a new system for developing cereal crop varieties — one that attracts private investment while preserving public programs for crops too small to interest a company’s bottom line.

Graf is a winter wheat breeder who spent 35 years in public plant science, retiring from Agriculture Canada in 2022. He knows better than most what’s at risk.

“One of the things that concerns me (is) those crops that have lower acreage. How are those going to be funded? How are new varieties going to be developed?” he said.

WHY IT MATTERS: Grain farmers will soon need answers to Graf’s questions. A February report from the Canadian Wheat Research Coalition says the status quo — a public breeding system dominated by Agriculture Canada — is no longer a viable path forward. Federal plans to close research centres and lay off scientists are accelerating the timeline for change.

For decades, growers have relied on Agriculture Canada scientists to develop the latest varieties of spring wheat, durum and other cereals. The coalition’s February report found that Ag Canada varieties are grown on about 80 per cent of all wheat fields in Canada every year.

“It’s clear that the status quo is not a viable path forward,” says Jocelyn Velestuk, Canadian Wheat Research Coalition chair.

The public approach has delivered strong varieties to farmers, but in the last 15 years, the system has grown progressively weaker. It will soon be further undermined as the federal government plans to close research centres and lay off employees in its science and technology branch.

There are real-world examples of what happens when government stops investing in crop breeding. Flax is the clearest cautionary tale.

About 20 years ago, there were three flax breeding programs in Canada. Now, there’s one at the University of Saskatchewan. Without the breeders to improve yields, flax acres on the Prairies collapsed.

Other factors contributed to flax’s decline — competition from the Black Sea region chief among them — but poorly funded breeding programs and flat yields didn’t help.

What a new system could look like

Creating a new system to fund cereal breeding will not be easy. But a transition needs to happen, particularly for spring wheat, said Richard Cuthbert, a former wheat breeder with Agriculture Canada in Swift Current, Sask.

The public breeding system is currently handicapped by an insufficient number of test sites for small plot trials — sites that should cover a range of growing conditions across Western Canada. Without those sites and the related data, developing a competitive spring wheat variety is extremely difficult.

The crops that could fall through the cracks

Graf spent the bulk of his career working on winter wheat — a crop seeded on 300,000 to 350,000 acres on the Prairies. That is a small fraction of the 19 million acres of spring wheat grown in Canada, and a tiny sliver of the 65 million acres of all Prairie crops.

Winter wheat covers the soil through fall and spring, offering real environmental benefits — erosion control, early ground cover, reduced spring runoff. But its small acreage makes it a poor candidate for private investment.

“Will anybody be interested in developing winter wheat? We simply don’t know,” Graf said.

For now, the question is hypothetical — Agriculture Canada still has a winter wheat breeding program. But Graf’s concern applies to any specialty or low-acreage crop that lacks the commercial scale to attract private investment once the public system retreats.

“What we really need is a system where private and public can co-exist,” Graf said.

Key takeaways

• Agriculture Canada varieties cover 80 per cent of Canada’s wheat fields — but that dominance is built on a system the industry itself says in no longer sustainable.

• The federal government plans to close research centres and cut scientists, accelerating the timeline for change.

• Flax acreage fell 67 per cent over 20 years — partly a result of underfunded breeding. That pattern could repeat in other crops.

• Low-acreage crops like winter wheat may not attract private investment, creating a gap no one has a plan to fill yet.

• Industry leaders say the future requires private and public breeding to co-exist — but what that looks like is still unknown.

Read the Canadian Wheat Research Coalition’s February 2026 report.

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The research hopes to answer questions such as ‘What are the social barriers to sustainable farming and food?’ and ‘How can the burden and benefits of that transition be shared equitably?’

The federal government pledged the cash March 19 to launch the Common Ground Canada Network. The initiative will be led by Dalhousie University’s Karen Foster, Canada research chair in sustainable rural futures for Atlantic Canada.

“Producers are already taking action to make their operations more sustainable … This knowledge sharing network will help amplify the work already underway and increase adoption of these best practices,” an Agriculture Agri-Food Canada news release read.

The hard science of sustainable agriculture, things like improved agronomic practices, are already the purview of other research organizations and government funding streams. The network, in contrast, has a goal to tackle the topic from the angle of sociology, social anthropology, political sciences, economics, the humanities and other lenses.

Foster, who is a social scientist, gathered a group of other researchers and applied for the funding to start the network

“I think it arises from this recognition that in many cases we know the technology is there … but there are some social barriers in the way to adoption,” Foster said.

There are also social processes through which people are assured “that if we adopt a certain policy in the name of sustainability, it’s actually going to work.”

The network is also concerned with the “just transition” towards sustainable agriculture—how both the burden and benefits of change could be equitably shared.

This could include topics like farmland ownership—as is the case in work done by network members Annette Desmarais, Andre Magnan and others, on land ownership in Saskatchewan. That research indicated that investor-owned farmland had increased 16-fold between 2002 and 2014.

In a March 2023 opinion piece, published in the Manitoba Co-operator, Magnan and Desmarais said that by 2018, investors owned nearly one million acres of Saskatchewan farmland.

“Given that, on average, investors pay more for land compared to other buyers, these deep-pocketed buyers have undoubtedly contributed to the rapid increase of farmland prices,” they said.

Network members have also studied what areas of food and agriculture venture capitalists are most likely to invest in; the growing reliance of even small-scale farms in Nova Scotia on temporary foreign workers and the potential social and environmental effects of local food movements and their attempts to compete with big economic players.

The five-year project’s overall goal is to increase access to and use of the social sciences in the pursuit of sustainable agriculture in Canada.

The network says they will gather researchers and agriculture and food system representatives, such as governments, community organizations and Indigenous groups, to hash out shared goals and form connections between social science researchers and other fields.

Their plan also includes the development of holistic sustainability goals and the direction of resources to where they’re most needed within the network.

Foster said the network already has dozens of academic and community partners across Canada. According to the AAFC news release, these include the Arrell Food Institute, Food Secure Canada, the National Farmers Union, Humane Society International, Farm to Cafeteria Canada and others.

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“This initiative reflects our commitment to strengthening global partnerships and expanding market access for Canadian pork producers,” said CPC chair Rene Roy in a news release.

The Indo-Pacific Agriculture and Agri-Food Office (IPAAO) is a joint effort between Agriculture Agri-food Canada (AAFC) and the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) is part of a plan to “increase and diversify Canada’s agriculture and agri-food exports to the Indo-Pacific,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in a November 2022 news release announcing the initiative.

China, Japan and the Philippines are among Canada’s top pork buyers, StatCan data shows. Korea and Taiwan are also hefty customers. In recent years, efforts have been also been made to increase sales to Vietnam.

Other Canadian producer groups also expressed hopes the office would further their sectors’ exports to the region.

“The Indo-Pacific provides a unique opportunity for growth and diversification for Canadian pulses,” said Pulse Canada chair Kevin Auch in the federal news release. ” This office demonstrates the Government of Canada’s support for our sector proactively breaking down market access barriers and playing a direct role in expanding exports of high-quality, sustainable pulses across the region.”

“The Indo-Pacific region represents both key established markets as well as diversification opportunities for Canadian canola,” said Chris Davison, president of the Canola Council of Canada in the release.

“Additional resources and an enhanced and sustained presence in the region are important to advancing both market access and market development efforts to support the growth and competitiveness of our industry and the broader sector,” he added.

Long-time Canadian diplomat Diedrah Kelly was appointed as the office’s first executive director, MacAulay announced in December.

IPAAO staff are already in Manila, “working with partners to advance shared priorities, such as food security, create mutually beneficial opportunities, build on strong relationships and enhance technical cooperation, market access and trade,” a federal news release said today.

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AAFC published its latest Outlook for Principal Field Crops on Tuesday.

Of Canada’s major crops, the department left the 2023-24 ending stocks for canola at one million tonnes and all wheat at 3.6 million, while all other reported crops were left unchanged.

Exports for 2023-24 were much the same, with canola standing pat at 7.7 million tonnes and all wheat at 21.3 million. There were small tweaks to barley, easing back to 2.73 million tonnes and oats dipped to 2.4 million.

As for this year’s domestic usage, AAFC included several slight alterations but left canola at 10.274 million tonnes and all wheat at 8.718 million. The revisions came with barley raised to 5.471 million tonnes, along with oats at 985,000, soybeans at 2.424 million, dry peas at 635,000 and lentils at 284,000. Meanwhile, corn was trimmed to 15.509 million tonnes.

The November report is AAFC’s last before Statistics Canada issues its survey-based production report, scheduled for Dec. 4.

Tables: November estimates for Canadian major crops’ supply and demand, in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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Canola ending stocks for 2023-24 are now forecast to tighten to only one million tonnes, down by 700,000 from the August forecast and well below the 2022-23 canola carryout of 1.506 million tonnes.

Canola production was down from the August estimate — now at 17.368 million tonnes, which compares with the 18.695 million tonnes grown in 2022-23. Canola exports were forecast at 7.7 million tonnes, which would be well below the nine million tonnes forecast in August but in line with the 7.948 million tonnes exported in 2022-23.

Meanwhile, projected domestic usage for canola in 2023-24 was raised to 10.274 million tonnes, from 9.95 million in August.

Wheat ending stocks for 2023-24 were lowered to 3.6 million tonnes by AAFC, from an estimated 3.7 million tonnes in August. Both exports and domestic usage were revised lower for wheat, but the declines in demand were more than countered by the sharp decline in production to 29.835 million tonnes from 33.209 million in August. Canada grew 34.334 million tonnes of wheat in 2022-23 and had a carryout of 3.584 million tonnes.

Total wheat exports for 2023-24 are now forecast at 21.3 million tonnes by AAFC, which was down by 2.5 million tonnes from August and compares with the 25.532 million tonnes of Canadian wheat exported the previous crop year.

Barley ending stocks for 2023-24 were forecast at 550,000 tonnes, which would be down from the August estimate of 700,000 tonnes and the 2022-23 level of 709,000 tonnes.

The carryout for oats was lowered by 100,000 tonnes, to 350,000 tonnes. If realized, that would be a drastic reduction from the 1.275 million tonnes carried forward from 2022-23.

Pulse and special crops only saw minor adjustments, with projected pea ending stocks for 2023-24 left unchanged at 275,000 tonnes while lentils were upped slightly at 150,000 tonnes.

Tables: September estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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Most of Canada’s pulses are grown on the Prairies, and in particular southern Alberta and western Saskatchewan, which happen to be the driest parts of the region, leading to declines in production this year along with reduced acres.

In AAFC’s latest outlook for principal field crops, dry pea production was down 200,000 tonnes at 2.7 million, and a fair bit less than the 3.42 million harvested in 2022-23. Exports for 2023-24 were reduced by the same amount at 2.2 million tonnes while domestic usage was held at 705,000. Ending stocks were nudged up by 50,000 tonnes at 275,000.

Lentils were also lowered, from 2.1 million tonnes in July to now 1.8 million. In 2022-23, lentil production reached 2.3 million tonnes. Exports for 2023-24 hold at 330,000 tonnes, domestic usage stays at 250,000, with ending stocks remaining at 125,000.

Dry bean production lost 20,000 tonnes at 300,000, going from more than the 313,000 tonnes combined in 2022-23 to less than that amount. Exports and domestic usage for 2023-24 were held at 330,000 and 75,000 tonnes respectively. Ending stocks were cut from 70,000 tonnes to now 50,000.

The production of chickpeas was reduced by 25,000 tonnes at 170,000, but that’s still better than the 128,000 in 2022-23. Exports for 2023-24 remained at 145,000. Domestic usage increased by 15,000 tonnes at 70,000, but ending stocks were halved at 25,000.

Pulse prices across the Prairies nudged up following the AAFC report. Prairie Ag Hotwire said lentils across Western Canada gained seven-10ths to two cents per pound and chickpeas were up 0.5-1.8 cents/lb. Beans rose 0.3-0.5 cent/lb. except for navy beans which lost 1.2 cents.

Green peas were up 50 cents per bushel while yellows were unchanged. Feed prices were mixed as well, with a gain of 25 cents in Manitoba to a drop of 40 cents in Saskatchewan.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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While AAFC’s call on 2023-24 canola production was held at 18.8 million tonnes, the department noted an error.

“The imbalance between canola supplies and disappearance is reflected in the negative feed, waste and dockage (FWD) and error estimate of 663,000 tonnes. The negative FWD reflects an underestimation of the carry-in and/or production for the crop year, these estimates are expected to be revised in an upcoming release of Statistics Canada’s supply and disposition report,” the report said.

MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville further explained the error.

“The negative FWD number obviously cannot stand, but it’s very likely an acknowledgement from the government that their 2022 canola production estimate of 18.1 (million metric tonnes) is not right, understated by at minimum of 500,000 to more likely around 700,000 tonnes,” he said. “Now it is up to StatCan to make the correction, maybe in their September grain stocks report or maybe they delay it until their December production report.”

With StatCan scheduled to issue its model-based production estimates on Aug. 29, followed by its stocks report on Sept. 8, the September report from AAFC will more accurately reflect crop output for 2023-24.

Jubinville commented that AAFC was wrong in its estimation of 18.8 million tonnes of canola, but the department has to wait for that Aug. 29 report before changing its call.

All wheat saw its 2023-24 production reduced from 35.33 million tonnes in July to now 33.21 million, and durum was cut from 5.7 million tonnes to 4.91 million.

“Drought conditions for the southern half of Alberta and southwest and west-central Saskatchewan lower the durum and the spring (wheat). They are still too high but working in the direction of lower in future reports, I suspect,” Jubinville said.

Oats were trimmed from 2.82 million tonnes to 2.71 million. Meanwhile the department’s flax estimate was held at 325,000 tonnes along with soybeans staying at 6.85 million. Corn saw an increase from 14.53 million tonnes in July to 15.30 million, based on good growing conditions in Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba, according to AAFC.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg; includes files from Phil Franz-Warkentin of MarketsFarm.

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It is the P.E.I. MP’s second time in the role, having previously held it between 2015 and 2019.

MacAulay took over the role from Marie-Claude Bibeau, who will move to the post of Minister of National Revenue.

Manitoba’s Keystone Agricultural Producers (KAP) was quick to commend the appointment, releasing a press release shortly after the news broke Tuesday.

“On behalf of all Manitoba farmers, I want to welcome Minister MacAulay back to his role as Minister of Agriculture & Agri-Food,” said KAP President Jill Verwey via the statement.

She also thanked Bibeau for her work in the role and said that MacAulay’s previous experience would be an asset in the future.

There is support for the move within MacAulay’s home province as well; Donald Killorn, Executive Director of the Prince Edward Island Federation of Agriculture (PEIFA) said he welcomed the news.

“Farmers on Prince Edward Island are very pleased to see Minister MacAulay return to the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada portfolio,” said Killorn. “We had a good relationship with Minister Bibeau, but Minister MacAulay is someone who we know well and many, many farmers have a personal relationship with.”

“He was a Prince Edward Island farmer himself before he became a minister of Parliament,” Killorn continued. “We were thrilled to see when Prime Minister Trudeau decided to place Minister MacAulay back in that role.”

The Canadian Federation of Agriculture (CFA) also welcomed MacAulay in their own statement, saying it looked forward to collaborating, “to propel the vital interests of Canadian agriculture forward, unleashing Canadian agriculture’s full potential as an economic driver and source of climate solutions.”

In a follow-up interview, CFA President Keith Currie said he was encouraged to see someone with experience dealing in agriculture taking over the role.

“It’s nice to have somebody that’s familiar with the industry and familiar with the players,” Currie said. “There won’t hopefully be a long period of getting up to speed.”

Currie also mentioned that MacAulay’s personal experience with farming could be an asset.

“Coming from an island like Prince Edward Island where predominantly agriculture is everything, he certainly is kept up to speed with, you know, a lot of the issues, so we’re looking forward to reacquainting ourselves with Mr. MacAulay and working together with him moving forward.”

“I was vice president of CFA when he was appointed as minister,” Currie said. “And so, we did work closely with him.”

He also acknowledged Bibeau’s work in the role, thanking her for four years as ag minister. “I know she worked very hard,” he said.

Lauren Kennedy, Director of Public Affairs for the Chicken Farmers of Canada (CFC) said MacAulay has always been a relevant figure in Canadian agriculture, no matter what role he currently held.

“We’ve worked closely with Lawrence MacAulay back when he was minister previously. Even since then, to be honest, he’s always been a friend of agriculture,” she said.

“Even when he was outside of the portfolio, we kept in touch with him and kept him apprised of our issues.”

The Canadian Organic Growers (COG) welcomed MacAulay back to the role and said they looked forward to working with him.

“COG looks forward to engaging and collaborating with Minister MacAulay on the interests and needs of Canadian organic and regenerative producers, and the essential role they play in advancing Canada’s climate goals,” read a July 27 press release.

In the dairy industry, the news was met kindly as well.

“Minister MacAulay is well versed on the realities of dairy production, and we look forward to collaborating with him further,” said David Wiens, President of Dairy Farmers of Canada in an email.

National Farmers Union (NFU) President Jen Pfenning said the NFU sent MacAulay a letter of congratulation after hearing the news.

“He has experience in the role, so I suspect he’ll be up to speed quite quickly, and that’s a good thing,” said Pfenning. “I personally am looking forward to meeting with him as soon as he can make some time in his schedule.”

The NFU wasted no time calling the newly appointed minister to action; they issued a joint letter with the Wheat Growers Association (WGA) asking him to halt the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) decision to impose export grade standards on wheat delivered to country elevators within the hour of his appointment.

Pfenning said this was not at all related to his change in position, but a statement the NFU was already planning on issuing.

— Jonah Grignon reports for Glacier FarmMedia from Ottawa.

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It will be his second turn in the role, having previously served between 2015 and 2019.

The announcement came at a Wednesday swearing in ceremony at Rideau Hall, where Prime Minister Trudeau’s anticipated cabinet re-shuffle was unveiled.

MacAulay, who represents the riding of Cardigan in P.E.I, was first elected to the House of Commons in 1998. He has also served as Minister of Veterans Affairs and Associate Minister of National Defence.

He did not attend the ceremony due to a personal matter. He was privately sworn in Tuesday.

Bibeau will take over the role of Minister of National Revenue from Diane Lebouthillier. Who will in turn inherit the post of Minister of Fisheries, Oceans and the Canadian Coast Guard.

Bibeau was first elected in 2015 and has previously served as Minister of International Development, before being appointed Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food in 2019. She was the first woman to hold that position.

Other ministers moving to new positions include Pablo Rodriguez, who inherited the title of Minister of Transport Omar Alghabra, Mark Holland, who will replace Jean-Yves Duclos as Minister of Health.

Gudie Hutchings and Mary Ng will retain their roles of Minister of Rural Economic Development and Minister of International Trade respectively.

More information to be released in the coming days. See related coverage at the Western Producer.

— Jonah Grignon reports for Glacier FarmMedia from Ottawa.

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Only corn saw any adjustments in the numbers from May, with a 200,000-tonne increase in 2022-23 exports, now at 2.05 million tonnes, resulting in 100,000-tonne reductions in current- and new-crop corn ending stocks at 2.4 million and 2.2 million tonnes respectively.

Wheat ending stocks were left unchanged at 3.98 million tonnes for 2022-23 and 5.8 million tonnes in 2023-24. Canola ending stocks were also left unchanged at the relatively tight levels of 650,000 tonnes for the current crop year and 600,000 tonnes in 2023-24.

Predicted average prices did see some adjustment on many crops, with 2022-23 canola prices raised to $840 per tonne, from $805 per tonne in May, while new-crop expectations were lowered by $20, to $680 per tonne.

Average wheat bids, excluding durum, were pegged at $400 per tonne in 2022-23, from $410 in May. New-crop wheat prices were revised down by $5 from May, now at $370 per tonne.

In its commentary, AAFC cautioned that “volatility in the world’s grain markets remains above normal on generally unseasonably warm Northern Hemisphere temperatures and mixed moisture conditions along with the disruptions caused by Russia’s war against Ukraine.”

Tables: June estimates for Canadian major crops’ supply and demand, in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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