ABPA had initially projected Brazil’s 2025 chicken exports reaching up to 5.4 million tons, up 1.9 per cent compared to the previous year.

But based on outstanding sales in the first weeks of the year, that forecast may prove conservative, said Ricardo Santin, head of the group, in an interview.

“The 5.4 million tons were at the top of the projected range but will likely be revised,” he said, adding more monthly data is required to officially increase the forecast.

Since January 1, more than 34 countries have registered outbreaks of avian influenza, according to data from the World Organization for Animal Health cited by ABPA.

In the United States, Brazil’s main competing exporter, there are more than 60 active outbreaks. There are also 64 outbreaks in the United Kingdom, 76 in Germany, 40 in Poland and 36 outbreaks in the Netherlands, ABPA said.

Brazil never had an outbreak on a commercial farm.

In January, Brazilian chicken shipments increased by almost 10 per cent, driven by increased demand from China, the European Union and the Philippines.

Strong demand drove a 20.9 per cent increase in chicken export revenue.

“February should be no different, based on the weekly partial figures received, which predict shipments of over 450,000 (tons),” ABPA’s statement said.

The first half of the year tends to be seasonally weaker than the second, Santin said, adding initial export performance may boost Brazil’s overall export volumes on a monthly basis at the end of 2025.

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There are 10 premises infected with H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in B.C. and one in Saskatchewan. The nation estimates 11,099,000 birds are affected, according to the latest data from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency. All B.C. cases are in Chilliwack and Abbotsford.

“I think there’s definitely worry and apprehension in the industry, because in the last two years in a row – and this is the third year – the growers have seen HPAI cases around this time,” said Natalie Veles, executive director of British Columbia Turkey.

Why it matters: Avian flu poses a serious risk to Canada’s poultry supply, and migratory birds that land in the Fraser Valley make B.C. farms particularly vulnerable.

Culprits for the new cases are migratory birds, Veles said. Dr. Theresa Burns, B.C.’s chief veterinary officer, agreed. Waterfowl carry avian influenza viruses north to south and they love to rest in standing water in the Fraser Valley, especially during wet years.

“We get large numbers of waterfowl in the Fraser Valley specifically, and they’re shedding the avian influenza virus into the environment,” Burns said.

This particular strain has been infecting farms in the area for three years. Industry groups and the provincial and federal governments have helped producers prepare for and reduce the risk of avian influenza.

“We’ve seen our poultry industry really step up,” Burns said.

Different orders are in place for infected premises under the Animal Health Act. British Columbia Turkey and other poultry groups in the province are working with the CFIA to ensure infected premises are quarantined and quickly managed.

“We’re also sharing a lot of good information as we go through the outbreak,” Veles said. “The industry is handling it the best we can.”

When HPAI is confirmed in poultry through lab testing, the CFIA designates the affected area as an infected premises and places it under quarantine. It may also establish a primary control zone around an infected premises.

Movement of poultry, related products and equipment is restricted within this 10-kilometre radius. Locations of active primary control zones can be viewed on CFIA’s website.

If a flock is located within an active primary control zone, producers must obtain a permit to transport birds, their products or byproducts. Permits apply to both small and commercial flocks.

“We’ve regulated poultry types – broilers, breeders, layers, turkeys, and also on the non-regulated side, with ducks,” Veles said. “And those are the things that we are really trying to work with the CFIA to understand.”

On poultry farms, biosecurity measures include ensuring birds come only from reputable sources and that any sick birds are promptly isolated from the main flock. Introducing new birds should be done sparingly, and newcomers, as well as those returning from exhibitions, should be isolated before integration. Implementing an all-in, all-out movement for flock management is advisable where feasible, the sector has been told.

Good biosecurity protocols require regular cleaning and disinfection of poultry houses, equipment, clothing and footwear used by handlers. A specific area should be designated for cleaning vehicles and equipment. Dead birds and damaged eggs should be promptly disposed of, and plastic crates should be used for bird transport, protocols indicate.

Such protocols also require restricted access for visitors, and measures to prevent other birds, rodents, pets or wildlife from interacting with the flock. Accurate records of people, animals and equipment moving on and off the premises should be kept.

Veles said she hopes that, in working with producers, the CFIA and other groups, they may discover other risk factors that will allow better control of future outbreaks.

“We need to know what those risk factors are to be able to respond better,” she said.

The CFIA is working with the B.C. Ministry of Agriculture and Food and industry groups to respond to current infections, a spokesperson for the CFIA wrote in an Oct. 30 email.

Around 145,000 birds have been affected by HPIA at the six premises in B.C. All have been humanely killed and disposed of, the CFIA said. Manure, feathers and other material that could spread the disease are disposed of as well, and all premises go through cleaning and disinfection overseen by the CFIA.

“The continued detections of HPAI in both wild and domestic birds in Canada is a strong reminder for anyone raising birds to remain vigilant of HPAI and ensure they have effective biosecurity measures in place,” the spokesperson wrote.

If this year follows the same pattern as the previous two, Burns is hopeful that cases of HPAI will drop off in December.

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Although highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), commonly called bird flu, is harmless in food, its spread is a concern for governments and the poultry industry due to the devastation it can cause to flocks and a risk of human transmission.

The virus usually strikes during autumn and winter and has been spreading in many European countries over the past weeks but with a delay compared with previous years.

A increase in outbreaks had previously been observed at the beginning of October, whereas this year the rise has only taken place from November, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), and the EU reference laboratory (EURL) said in a joint report.

“The later rise in HPAI virus detections in wild birds may be due to a later autumn migration of several wild waterbird species following a relatively warm autumn period,” they added.

The report notes that the severe bird flu virus was detected in wild birds and mammals in the Antarctic region for the first time.

Meanwhile, ECDC assessed that the risk of bird flu infection in Europe remains low for the general public. Despite indications of mammal-to-mammal transmission, no mammal-to-human transmission of the H5N1 virus in circulation in Europe has been observed, they added.

It was too early to predict whether a similarly high number of bird flu outbreaks as in the previous years or a reduction due to development of some level of immunity in previously affected wild bird species would be observed, they also said.

–Reporting for Reuters by Sybille de La Hamaide.

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France has been among the countries worst affected by an unprecedented global spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza that has disrupted supply of poultry and eggs and sent prices rocketing in many parts of the world in the past years.

To fight the spread of the disease it started vaccinating 64 million ducks early this month, making it the first poultry exporter to do so and raising hope among foie gras producers that it would put an end to the crisis.

Producer group Cifog forecast foie gras output will rise 20 per cent in 2023 to 9,855 metric tonnes after a drop of 35 per cent in 2022, but still 26 per cent below the average of the five previous years and half the volume produced 10 years earlier.

Higher production costs, including part of vaccination, will lead to another rise in foie gras prices, pegged at five per cent this year, it said.

On the export front, France’s bird flu vaccination campaign prompted several countries to impose a ban on French poultry imports, including Japan, France’s main foie gras export market outside Europe with a share of 10 per cent in value.

Canada and the U.S. also imposed bans, Cifog added.

Although more and more governments have been looking at vaccination as a way to contain the virus, most of the world’s biggest poultry producers have resisted vaccination due to concerns it could mask the spread of bird flu and prompt trade bans.

— Sybille de La Hamaide is a Reuters commodities correspondent in Paris.

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The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) announced the temporary ban Tuesday, following France’s move to require mandatory vaccination against highly pathogenic avian flu (HPAI) in ducks raised for meat production starting this month.

CFIA said it has been in “close contact” with French and European Union officials on the matter since June, and received a presentation in July from France on that country’s HPAI vaccination plan.

France’s plan was announced after the European Union passed legislation in March on use of vaccination to mitigate animal disease outbreaks.

The French plan requires vaccinations of ducks for meat production. Vaccination of breeder ducks is permitted, but only for birds that will not be exported.

However, CFIA said, it’s not yet clear whether meat from vaccinated ducks will be eligible for export to other countries — nor how France plans to identify, trace and control vaccinated breeding stock.

CFIA said it’s “currently conducting” its risk assessment, and until that evaluation is complete, the suspension will be in effect.

The agency’s suspension on imports from France applies to live birds and hatching eggs; all unprocessed avian and poultry products and byproducts, including “edible or inedible” raw poultry meat, eggs, feathers, poultry manure and litter; laboratory material containing poultry products or byproducts; and any raw or unprocessed pet food containing poultry products or byproducts.

Cooked and canned or hermetically sealed, commercially sterile meat products are still eligible for import, CFIA said.

France, like Canada, the U.S. and many other countries, has seen its poultry industry hard hit by outbreaks of HPAI in the past couple of years.

CFIA reports that as of Sept. 21, Canada’s run of HPAI outbreaks since December 2021 has impacted an estimated 7.678 million domestic birds.

A lull in cases since May this year ended in September, as CFIA detected five outbreaks during the month including four premises in Alberta and one in southwestern Saskatchewan.

READ MORE: France stacks the deck against bird flu but risks issues

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Serice (APHIS) on Friday also announced such a ban, also taking effect Oct. 1.

APHIS’ ban applies on imports of poultry from France, as well as live ducks, duck eggs, and “unmitigated/untreated” duck products from the APHIS-recognized European Poultry Trade Region (EPTR) as well as Iceland, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, and Norway. Great Britain is not included in the EPTR ban.

The U.S. doesn’t allow poultry from countries affected with HPAI “or from flocks that have been vaccinated by HPAI,” APHIS said in a release Friday.

Vaccination of poultry against HPAI “may mask HPAI virus circulating in poultry,” APHIS said, and vaccinated birds “may not show signs of infection, which could lead to the export of infected live animals or virus-contaminated products to the United States.”

Furthermore, APHIS said, EU member states and other non-EU countries in Europe have open access to the European common market for trade in avian commodities.

“With the way poultry moves under the EPTR, we currently cannot be assured countries trading in the European common market can reliably certify that exports do not originate from European countries that vaccinate poultry for HPAI,” APHIS said.

“Accordingly, these restrictions address the risk of open trade within Europe while accounting for the higher risk with imports from France.” — Glacier FarmMedia Network

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Canada’s active caseload of the virus now comes down to just eight of the 325 premises affected since December 2021.

Even if no additional cases turn up, though, many steps remain before the country’s “free from HPAI” status can be restored.

Reports from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) showed no HPAI detections in domestic birds from May 6 up until Sept. 11, when a commercial chicken and turkey broiler and layer operation, east of New Dayton in southern Alberta’s Warner County, was found to have the virus.

According to CFIA’s report to the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH), 390 birds on that premises died of the virus and another 1,570 were euthanized.

CFIA on Thursday (Sept. 21) reported detection of a new outbreak on another commercial poultry operation in the southwestern Saskatchewan R.M. of Maple Creek. Details on the number and type of poultry affected at that premises aren’t yet available.

A third outbreak was confirmed Friday in domestic birds at a “non-commercial, non-poultry” premises in central Alberta’s Red Deer County.

Past those three, five other non-commercial premises are still listed as “infected” — two in Alberta, two in Saskatchewan and one in British Columbia.

Despite the 21-month run of cases — which as of Thursday had impacted a total of 7.678 million birds across nine provinces — “country-level freedom from avian influenza remains the objective,” a CFIA representative said via email Friday.

While restoring Canada’s status as HPAI-free would ease export trade in Canadian poultry and eggs, CFIA noted it’s “not the sole determining factor in market access for Canadian poultry products.”

For one thing, the agency said, many trading partners, including in Europe and Asia as well as the U.S., are “facing similar challenges” with HPAI and it remains “important for all trading partners to work together to minimize the trade impacts of these outbreaks” as per WOAH policies.

The U.S., for one, had a similar break from HPAI cases in domestic birds this summer, lasting from May 18 through to late July.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service reported outbreaks at live bird markets in New York’s Kings County (that is, Brooklyn) on July 25 and 28 and Aug. 3, then another at a live bird market in northern New Jersey’s Union County on Sept. 15.

CFIA today has agreements with the U.S. as well as the European Union, Philippines and Singapore which allow trade to continue from poultry and egg operations outside of primary control zones (PCZs) which are drawn up around premises that haven’t yet been cleared of infection.

Other trading partners’ policies, CFIA said, take the active PCZs into account — or they use other specific geographic boundaries that still allow unaffected poultry products to be exported. CFIA also said it continues to negotiate agreements with other countries to reduce avian flu impacts on trade.

Nevertheless, Canada still has a “stamping out policy” for HPAI — and that’s based on the goal of “eliminating the virus in domestic birds on infected premises and implementing movement control measures to prevent future spread.”

To declare Canada’s outbreak “resolved,” several steps remain for properties deemed infected, CFIA said:

• every outbreak in poultry across Canada is reported to WOAH as ‘closed’;
• the last PCZ in Canada is revoked;
• no lab results or investigations are pending;
• cleaning and disinfection are complete and movement restrictions are released on all poultry premises deemed infected;
• a report from the Canadian Notifiable Avian Influenza Surveillance System (CanNAISS) and reports from “passive surveillance” support country freedom; and
• a final report has been submitted to — and validated by — the WOAH.

As for the other five premises not yet released from quarantine, they “have not yet met the requirements” for release. CFIA said the quarantines it issues have to remain in place until a premises owner completes all required steps, including “primary decontamination” after infected birds are destroyed.

Primary decontamination — including destruction and disposal of all birds on the premises and related products such as eggs — “controls the risk of disease spread to other premises until cleaning and disinfection is complete,” the agency said.

Cleaning and disinfection, which take place following a site assessment with CFIA, will include removing litter and manure; wet-cleaning and disinfecting hard surfaces and structures; and cleaning and disinfecting tools and equipment. Those costs are the responsibility of the birds’ owner.

Once cleaning and disinfection are done, the CFIA evaluates the farm to determine when the quarantine may be removed — normally, at least 14 days after cleaning and disinfection, final inspection and approval. — Glacier FarmMedia Network

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Canada has booked 322 outbreaks in domestic birds in the past 19 months, of which 31 were detected so far in 2023. Of the 31, just one was detected in May, in a commercial barn in Quebec’s Les Maskoutains regional municipality (RCM) on May 6.

As of Friday, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, which oversees quarantines, culls and disinfections at outbreak sites, counts 35 of the 322 as still “infected,” mainly in backyard non-poultry flocks.

Of those remaining 35, eight active sites were in commercial poultry: five at Les Maskoutains, one in Quebec’s Rouville RCM, one at Taber, Alta. and one at Chilliwack, B.C. One other still-active site, near Weyburn, Sask., involved “non-commercial” poultry.

While Canada is not yet free of notifiable avian flu, its decline in active cases and absence of new cases can be seen as positive signs amid North America’s months-long run of outbreaks.

Under the World Organization for Animal Health’s Terrestrial Animal Health Code, WOAH member countries should not impose bans on trade of poultry commodities in response to cases of influenza A viruses in birds “other than poultry.”

In all, as of Friday, Canada has had to cull an estimated 7.668 million domestic birds in nine provinces, both poultry and non-poultry, since its 18-month run of avian flu cases began in Newfoundland in December 2021.

That case, at a “non-poultry” farm on the Avalon Peninsula, had marked Canada’s first high-path avian flu outbreak since 2015.

No domestically-acquired human cases of avian influenza strains have been reported in Canada. However, Canada’s run of outbreaks since late 2021 has seen the virus turn up in multiple wild species, including foxes, seals, dolphins, black bears, wild mink, raccoons, porpoises and skunks. The virus was also confirmed in April to have killed one domestic dog at Oshawa, Ont., after it was seen chewing on a wild goose.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., where 836 domestic and backyard flocks in 47 states have had cases since the start of 2022, leading to culls for an estimated 58.79 million domestic birds, no new cases have been confirmed in domestic birds since May 18. — Glacier FarmMedia Network

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Bird flu chiefly spreads among wild birds such as ducks and gulls and can also infect farmed birds and domestic poultry such as chickens, turkeys and quails.

Although the viruses largely affect birds, they can spill into bird predators, and in rare cases, humans typically in close contact with infected birds.

A team of scientists from the MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research studied hundreds of genes normally expressed by human cells, comparing the genes’ behaviour during infection with either human seasonal viruses or avian flu viruses.

They zeroed in on a gene called BTN3A3, expressed both in the upper and the lower human respiratory tract. Nicknamed B-force by the researchers, the gene was found to block the replication of most strains of bird flu in human cells.

However, the gene’s antiviral activity failed to protect against seasonal human flu viruses.

This gene is part of a broader defensive apparatus in the human immune arsenal against bird viruses.

All the human influenza pandemics, including the 1918-19 global flu pandemic, were caused by influenza viruses that were resistant to BTN3A3, and therefore the gene appears to be a key factor in whether any bird flu strain has human pandemic potential, the researchers said.

To be sure, viruses mutate all the time, and this does not mean that bird flu viruses could not evolve to escape the activity of BTN3A3.

Earlier this year, a new H5N1 strain of bird flu that transmits easily among wild birds explosively spread into new corners of the globe, infecting and killing a variety of mammal species and raising fears of a human pandemic. So far, only a handful of human cases have been reported to the World Health Organization (WHO).

About 50 per cent of H5N1 strains circulating globally so far in 2023 are resistant to BTN3A3, said professor Massimo Palmarini, the corresponding author of the study published in the science journal Nature.

“This is the sort of thing which we should be paying particular attention to as an elevated level of risk,” added Sam Wilson, a co-senior author of the study.

— Natalie Grover is a Reuters health and pharma correspondent in London, England.

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However, no decision to vaccinate has yet been made, Rosemary Sifford, who is also deputy administrator of the veterinary services program at the Department of Agriculture (USDA), told Reuters at the general session of the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) in Paris.

The conference has been focusing on highly pathogenic avian influenza, commonly called bird flu.

The severity of the current outbreak of bird flu has led some governments to reconsider vaccinating poultry, but others such as the United States have been remain reluctant, citing trade curbs this would entail.

“Any vaccination strategy would need to be a very focused strategy… I would certainly not expect to do a widespread vaccination if we were to choose that path,” Sifford said.

“We would be looking at a very specific targeted potentially geographic- and species-oriented that maybe focus on certain turkeys in a certain area. These are the country scenarios that we have been talking through,” she added.

Regionalization and compartmentalization per farms or species are allowed under WOAH rules and often reduce the risk of having country-wide trade barriers.

Turkey meat is expected to account for about 10 per cent of total U.S. poultry production in 2023 and exports are expected to account for about seven per cent of total turkey production, USDA data showed. In contrast, exports of chicken meat are estimated at about 16 per cent.

Sifford sees “no positive impact” in vaccinating chickens since they have a short lifespan.

“For us, turkeys have been the species most affected in terms of facilities,” she said.

The National Turkey Federation, which represents U.S. farmers and processors, supports the development of a vaccine, its president said.

USDA said in November that more than 70 per cent of commercial poultry farms affected in the 2022 outbreak were turkey farms.

USDA told Reuters on Friday that it continued to research vaccine options against bird flu to “protect poultry from this persistent threat” but still considers biosecurity measures to be the most effective tool for mitigating the virus.

— Sybille de La Hamaide is a Reuters commodities correspondent in Paris; additional reporting by Tom Polansek in Chicago.

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Witnesses from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA), Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) spoke to MPs’ concerns about livestock diseases at a committee meeting last Wednesday afternoon.

Biosecurity preparedness has been a relevant issue recently, with rising concerns over African swine fever (ASF), foot-and-mouth disease and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), which saw 13 outbreaks in Quebec alone in April, and killed over 50 million farm birds in the U.S. in 2022.

Dr. Mary Jane Ireland, executive director of CFIA’s animal health directorate, told the Commons’ standing committee on agriculture and agri-food that the agency has ‘playbooks’ for every disease they are aware of, and that hazard-specific plans are updated as diseases evolve around the world.

Given recent outbreaks, avian influenza has been of particular concern. Ireland said CFIA has plans in place for its quick detection.

“When avian influenza is suspected, a sample is taken, and it is sent to a lab, that can be a provincial lab as (an) initial first step,” Ireland said. “To confirm the disease formally, the sample will be tested at the National Centre for Foreign Animal Disease (NCFAD) in Winnipeg.”

“We take early action based on early findings of the provincial labs.”

CFIA is also committed to dedicating personnel to HPAI response and containment. VP of operations Philippe Morel said “up to 10 per cent” of the agency was deployed to respond to outbreaks last fall.

Priority would be placed on depopulating infected areas, he said.

Global communication continues to be key to biosecurity preparedness, Ireland said.

“We need to continue to… monitor global events and trends. What are the diseases we’re seeing emerge, where are they? They inform our policy; they inform our regulatory approach. And they inform our import controls,” she said.

CFIA, she said, “has worked extensively with other federal departments and with industry and governments to ready ourselves, to be ready for an incursion, to prevent an incursion of a foreign animal disease.”

CBSA director general Shawn Hoag spoke to the importance of border control to Canada’s biosecurity preparedness.

All importers must provide information about their goods prior to entry, he said. CBSA agents have the authority to inspect shipments and hold them until they are either released or destroyed as necessary.

Options to better gather import data are being explored, he added, such as an increased number of x-rays and detector dogs.

Tom Rosser, assistant deputy minister for AAFC’s market and industry services branch, said the department is planning response simulations to ASF later this week.

— Jonah Grignon reports for Glacier FarmMedia from Ottawa.

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