The bank, which has kept its rate at 2.25 per cent since last October, said the Middle East conflict would drive up gasoline prices and boost inflation in the short term.

“It is too early to assess the impact of the war on growth in Canada,” Macklem told reporters, saying the risk of higher energy prices quickly spreading to the prices of other goods and services looked contained for the moment.

“Governing Council will look through the war’s immediate impact on inflation but if energy prices stay high, we will not let their effects broaden and become persistent inflation,” he told reporters.

Before the war started, the inflation rate in Canada had hovered around the central bank’s two per cent target for several months with the bank’s monetary policy stance seen as moderately stimulating a weak economy.

Iran war likely to affect forecasts

Economists say high energy prices are likely to affect forecasts for inflation and growth if the Strait of Hormuz, responsible for a fifth of global oil trade, stays closed beyond a few weeks.

Money markets, which had been expecting the bank to sit on the sidelines in 2026, firmed their bets for a rate hike in December.

The Canadian dollar weakened after the rates announcement and was trading down 0.20 per cent to C$1.3717 or 72.90 U.S. cents.

“Economic weakness combined with rising inflation is a dilemma for central banks,” said Macklem.

“Raising interest rates to slow inflation could further weaken the economy. Easing interest rates to support growth risks pushing inflation well above target.”

Macklem said near-term Canadian growth was likely to be weaker than the bank had forecast in January and described uncertainty as acute.

Canada is also dealing with U.S. tariffs on some critical sectors, subdued business investment, a soft labor market and a lack of clarity on the future of a free trade deal between the U.S., Mexico and Canada.

“Canada’s economy is dealing with a lot, and now we face more volatility,” he said.

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Excluding the effect of indirect taxes, the Consumer Price Index rose 1.9 per cent year-over-year in February, it said.

The inflation data for March will be the final month affected by the base-year effect of the sales tax break. But rising crude oil prices as a result of the Iran war are likely to change inflation expectations.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected inflation to fall to 1.9 per cent year-over-year in February from 2.3 per cent in January, and 0.7 per cent month-over-month compared with no change in the prior month.

On a monthly basis consumer prices rose by 0.5 per cent in February, StatsCan said.

Bank of Canada to decide rates Wednesday

The Bank of Canada has held its key policy rate at 2.25 per cent since October, as inflation stabilized around its two per cent target within a one to three per cent control range.

The BoC will give some indication of inflationary pressures at its policy decision on Wednesday.

“The tame (CPI) report will be welcomed by policymakers ahead of the energy price shock, as it shows that labour market slack is keeping a lid on core prices, with the issue for the BoC being how long the oil price shock lasts for and its magnitude,” Katherine Judge, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, wrote in a note.

Food prices ongoing pain point

Despite the base year effect, food prices in February rose by 5.4 per cent on an annual basis as food purchased at restaurants increased by 7.8 per cent last month.

Food prices have remained a major pressure point for Canadian households, as grocery prices have risen faster than overall inflation due to factors like U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, bad weather conditions and supply chain issues.

Grocery prices rose 4.1 per cent in February after a 4.8 per cent rise observed in January, and the statistics agency said they have risen by 30 per cent in the last five years.

Gasoline prices decelerated by 14.2 per cent in February due to the continued impact of the removal of a carbon tax on the fuel, which reduced the year-over-year price. This impact will stay until April, StatsCan said.

Shelter costs – the largest component of the CPI basket with a weight of roughly 29 per cent – rose at a slower pace of 1.5 per cent in February as mortgage costs continued to ease. Rent costs rose 3.9 per cent on an annual basis in February.

Economists and the Bank of Canada closely watch core measures of inflation to gauge underlying price pressures.

The CPI-median, the centermost component of the CPI basket, was 2.3 per cent, while CPI-trim, which excludes the most extreme price changes, was also at 2.3 per cent.

The Canadian dollar firmed and was trading up 0.28 per cent to $1.3679 against the U.S. dollar, or 73.10 U.S. cents. Yields on two-year government bonds fell 6.5 basis points to 2.731 per cent.

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The consumer price index rose 2.3 per cent in January compared with 2.4 per cent in December, beating an analysts’ poll which pegged January’s expected rise in consumer prices at 2.4 per cent.

On a monthly basis, the CPI was unchanged from the prior month, data showed.

Gas prices decline by 16.7 per cent

The gasoline price index was the largest contributor to the deceleration in headline inflation, StatsCan said, as the yearly decline in gasoline prices was huge.

Prices at gas pumps fell on average 16.7 per cent in January, after a decline of 13.8 per cent in December. But, excluding gasoline, the CPI rose three per cent in January, matching the increase in December, the statistics agency said.

A sales tax break during the same period last year created an opposite base effect for some products such as food, alcohol and clothing. This pushed up the prices last month when compared with the same period a year ago.

Food prices rose 7.3 per cent, largely based on food from restaurants, and the category containing primarily alcoholic beverages rose 4.8 per cent in January.

Due to the choppy impacts of the sales tax break, economists usually focus on core inflation to ascertain the actual rise in consumer prices.

Excluding food and energy, the CPI rose 2.4 per cent year over year in January, following a 2.5 per cent increase in December, the agency said.

BoC calls inflation stable

The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures of inflation continued to ease.

CPI-median, or the price change of the centermost component of the CPI basket when arranged in order of increasing prices, was 2.5 per cent compared with 2.6 per cent previously, while CPI-trim, which excludes the most extreme price changes, was 2.4 per cent, down from 2.7 per cent in December, StatsCan said.

Shelter costs, which account for the biggest weight in the CPI basket, continued to rise at a slower pace and rose 1.7 per cent last month from a year earlier.

The January data come as the Bank of Canada has indicated that it considers inflation to be stable and around the mid-point of its target range. This has helped the central bank to pause rate cuts at 2.25 per cent.

“It’s clear now that Governing Council should be squarely focused on supporting the economy,” Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group wrote in a note after the inflation numbers were released.

Money markets are now pricing in a chance of a rate cut by July, although economists are still maintaining that there could be no cuts this year as inflation stays at the central bank’s target.

The Canadian dollar was trading down 0.2 per cent to C$1.3668 to the U.S. dollar. Yields on the two-year government bonds were down 3.9 basis points to 2.439 per cent.

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That’s according to Farm Credit Canada chief economist Desmond Sobool during FCC’s most recent economic outlook on Jan 22.

FCC expects farmers will see another jump in their bills this year. Its farm cost projections expect overall expenses to rise four per cent in 2026 over the previous year.

“If you look back to 2019, which is kind of our base pre-pandemic year, overall farm expenses are up over 50 per cent since 2019,” Sobool said. “In comparison, inflation in Canada overall is up 20 per cent, so you can just see how much more significant the impact of inflation has been on farm expenses.”

WHY IT MATTERS: Canada’s economy, agriculture included, is till trying to navigate volatile seas when it comes to trade and geopolitics, affecting projected farmer profit margins, investment and growth prospects in the agriculture sector and more. However, Canadian cattle prices will continue a run of strong, stable prices.

Sobool’s most energizing message concerned Canada’s new agreement-in-principle with China, which promised to drop Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola seed from 76 per cent to 15 per cent by March and eliminate China’s tariff on Canadian canola meal (at least for 2026) and peas — a boon for the domestic canola crushing sector.

“(Producers) have some certainty that there will be market access for canola this year,” he said.

That was before U.S. President Donald Trump threatened 100 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods if Canada makes a trade pact with China. The U.S. is Canada’s biggest canola customer, worth about $7.7 billion of oil, meal and seed exports.

Cattle wave still rolling

Sobool reported Canadian cow-calf producers and feedlots are set for another year of strong prices, driven in part by moderating feed costs.

Canadian cattle growers are finally seeing signals for expansion of the national herd, which steadily dropped over the drought years of the early 2020s.

The U.S., meanwhile, has its own challenges on herd retention. Heifer retention rates remain at a 75-year low, Sobool said.

Sobool also looked at the number of cows and heifers being sent to slaughter as a percentage of total animals to determine cattle herd trends. Once that percentage dips below 40 per cent, it’s a signal that the cattle herd is expanding. Canada’s percentage is currently at 41 per cent.

“In the U.S. it’s still about 49 per cent through 2025, so in the U.S., we’re still not seeing those market signals and so that’s going to continue to support prices.”

GDP slowdown

Canada’s economy is still growing, but FCC expects that growth to be slow.

The lender is forecasting Canada’s economic growth will slow from 1.7 per cent in 2025 to 1.2 per cent in 2026.

“I understand that what we’re saying here is quite different from consensus on interest rates, because most forecasters are predicting either no change to the overnight rate or even an increase later this year,” said Krishen Rangasamy, principal economist with FCC.

“That may well be the right forecast if the economy picks up materially. But … we think economic growth will weaken this year and if we’re correct about that additional stimulus by the central bank should not be ruled out.”

Uncertainty over the future of the soon-to-be-reviewed Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) will continue to be a limiting factor, Rangasamy said.

He suspects Canadian exporters in CUSMA’s tariff-free categories such as farm, fishing and intermediate food products have felt above-expected tariff impacts due to confusion over rules of origin requirements, losing their CUSMA compliance in the process.

“Remember that the majority of our exports to the U.S. is tariff-free thanks to CUSMA, and yet, outside of the energy sector, our exporters have really struggled since the U.S. tariffs were imposed,” he noted.

Tariffs placed on Canadian goods have caused U.S. importers to look elsewhere. This has caused Canada’s share of the U.S. market to drop to 11 per cent — its lowest ever — in 2025.

Diversified trade

Although Rangasamy considers Canada’s attempts to diversify trade partners commendable, he was disappointed in the country’s apparent inability to “materially reduce” dependence on the U.S., in light of its 15 free trade agreements with 51 countries.

“We’re not capitalizing on opportunities presented by those trade deals,” he said, citing ignored opportunities presented by the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA).

That agreement was designed to offer Canadian businesses preferential access to the EU market. But some expected big winners when the deal was first inked have failed to see major gains, particularly meat sectors who say regulation conflicts continue to keep them out.

Leveraging the house

This year will also see a large share of Canadian households renewing mortgages at higher interest rates than their origination. According to Bank of Canada estimates, mortgage payments will increase by an average six per cent this year.

“Those households that are renewing their fixed-year, five-year mortgage — which, by the way, is the most popular mortgage product in the country. For those folks, payments will increase by about 20 per cent,” listeners heard.

If there’s a bright spot for Canada, Rangasamy said it’s the federal government’s new focus on ambitious public projects that could rekindle business investment. But don’t expect big results too soon.

“It’s probably not a 2026 story. It’s probably something more like next year or even 2028.”

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In a quarterly monetary policy report, the central bank maintained its forecast for modest growth in 2026 and 2027 and said inflation would hover around the two per cent target.

Wednesday’s decision was the second time in a row the bank has stayed on the sidelines. Businesses will take time to adjust to the effect of U.S. tariffs, it said, noting that hiring intentions remain soft.

“While Council judges the current policy rate is appropriate based on our outlook, the consensus was that elevated uncertainty makes it difficult to predict the timing or direction of the next change in the policy rate,” Macklem said in his opening remarks after the rate announcement.

Hard to predict next moves

Economists and markets are divided on where monetary policy is headed this year.

Many economists expect there could be another cut to support an economy grappling with President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Money markets though are pricing in no cuts through 2026, but bets tilt toward a hike in the last quarter.

“Geopolitical risks are elevated and the upcoming review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement is an important risk to the outlook,” Macklem said.

Money market bets did not change much after the rates decision was announced.

The Canadian dollar firmed after the decision with the loonie trading up 0.28 per cent to C$1.3535 against the U.S. dollar, or 73.88 U.S. cents.

Canada’s economy has held up relatively well amid tariffs on critical sectors such a steel, autos and aluminum.

Growth in 2025 higher than expected

The bank says 2025 growth was 1.7 per cent, up from the earlier projection of 1.2 per cent in October.

The growth outlook for 2026 remains 1.1 per cent, while 2027 was revised a notch down to 1.5 per cent from 1.6 per cent projected last year.

Macklem reiterated that the risks to inflation going up due to tariffs would likely be offset by a downward pressure on prices due to excess supply.

Household spending is expected to continue growing modestly, supported by past rate cut and rising disposable incomes, Macklem said, adding that the central bank expected modest strengthening in business investment.

The BoC expressed hope that the restructuring the economy was going through due to tariffs would support some recovery in productive capacity.

“But it will all take time,” Macklem said.

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From December, money markets have started betting on odds of a rate hike late this year after a long pause for most of the year. But some economists differ given the uncertainty around the upcoming renegotiations of the United States-Mexico-Canada (CUSMA) free trade pact.

Related: Canadian GDP growth slow down expected in 2026, FCC says

The central bank had indicated in October after cutting rates by 25 basis points that the benchmark rate was about the right level as inflation continued to be within its target range.

It had also admitted that it did not have the tools to tackle the structural impacts to the economy unleashed by the U.S. tariffs and the related uncertainty.

Majority of economist expect steady rate

A Reuters poll of economists showed on Friday that nearly 75 per cent of the 35 economists polled forecast the central bank will keep rates steady through 2026, a larger majority than the just over 60 per cent who expected that outcome in December.

Money markets are pricing policy to remain on hold or tilt slightly toward easing through mid-2026, before turning to modest tightening expectations in the final quarter of 2026.

The BoC had reduced rates by 100 basis points last year, bringing them down to the lower level of its neutral range, a so-called policy interest rate band where the economy is neither being stimulated nor restricted by rates.

However, some economists say that for the rates to be actually stimulative and support the economy, they have to come down even further outside of the neutral range.

“We are still in the zone of what the bank thinks to be neutral,” said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

“If the unemployment rate is rising and we have a lot of trade uncertainty, why would rates just be neutral,” he said.

Companies subdued despite muted tariff effects

A recent survey of businesses and consumers by the BoC showed that business sentiment of Canadian companies remained subdued amid trade tensions and consumers were worried about their jobs and debt payments.

However economic data has also shown that there has been limited impact of tariffs beyond the directly hit sectors of steel, aluminum, lumber and automotive. Consumer prices have largely remained stable, the economy has grown modestly and job creation has been solid from September through November.

“Our baseline is they hold rates until a year from now and then they hike, not a start of a tightening cycle, but basically return the policy rate to the neutral midpoint,” said Tony Stillo, director of Canada Economics at Oxford Economics.

He cautioned, however, this assumption was based on a successful renegotiation of the CUSMA deal, where the tariffs on some sectors remain but to a lesser extent than what they are now.

The BoC will announce its monetary policy decision on the morning of Jan. 29. It will also release the quarterly Monetary Policy Report, where it will resume its previous practice of sharing single-point forecasts for the economy and inflation.

The MPR is expected to have an updated outlook on the impact of the federal budget on the Canadian economy.

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Despite tariffs between 25 per cent and 50 per cent on some critical sectors such as cars, lumber, aluminum and steel, Canada’s economy has shown signs of strength.

Third quarter annualized GDP grew by 2.6 per cent, much more than expected, while employment data showed the economy added 181,000 new jobs between September and November.

“So far, the economy is proving resilient,” Macklem said in opening remarks to reporters, adding that inflationary pressures continue to be contained. Overall inflation is just above the bank’s two per ent target.

“Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to two per cent while helping the economy,” said Macklem.

GDP growth expected to be weak

Uncertainty remains high and if the outlook changes, the bank is ready to respond, Macklem said, reiterating comments he made when the bank cut rates in October to their current level.

The U.S. Federal Reserve will also announce a rate decision on Wednesday and a majority of economists expect it will cut rates by 25 basis points.

Macklem said even though the economy had shown some resilience, he expected GDP growth to be weak in the fourth quarter and hiring intentions to be muted.

While the economy is adjusting to tariffs, volatility in trade and quarterly GDP numbers are making it more difficult to assess the underlying momentum of the economy, Macklem noted.

The recent data has “not changed our view that GDP will expand at a moderate pace in 2026 and inflation will remain close to target.”

Andrew Kelvin, Head of Canadian and Global Rates Strategy at TD Securities called the bank’s commentary a fairly cautious tone.

“It leads me to be very comfortable with the idea that the bank will be on hold for quite some time,” he said.

Choppiness in inflation

The consumer price index eased to 2.2 per cent in October but economists have regularly flagged that measures of core inflation, which strips out volatile components, have stayed around three per cent, the top end of the BoC’s inflation target.

In the months ahead, the BoC expects some choppiness in headline inflation which would push inflation temporarily higher in the near term.

But Macklem said the ongoing economic slack would roughly offset these cost pressures. He said the bank expects the growth in final domestic demand to resume after registering a flat growth in the third quarter.

The Canadian dollar weakened after the announcement and was trading down 0.13 per cent to 1.3865 to the U.S. dollar, or 72.12 U.S. cents. Yields on the two-year government bonds fell 3.3 basis points to 2.556 per cent.

— Additional reporting by Nivedita Balu and Fergal Smith

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The removal of a carbon levy on gasoline this year continued to depress yearly price increases for the past few months. Barring the carbon levy removal, the annual consumer price index rose by 2.7 per cent in October from 2.9 per cent in September, Statistics Canada said.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast the inflation to be at 2.1 per cent for October, down from 2.4 per cent in September. On a monthly basis, they forecast inflation to be 0.2 per cent.

On a monthly basis, CPI inflation was in line with forecasts, StatsCan data showed.

The Bank of Canada has cited stable inflation as one of the prime reasons to signal a halt in rate cuts last month. A further easing in October is likely to bolster its confidence to stand pat on the current policy rate of 2.25 per cent next month.

A bigger monthly decline in the price of gasoline in October brought down the annual price drop of the fuel to 9.4 per cent in October compared with a drop of 4.1 per cent in September.

Food prices rose 3.4 per cent in October

Another contributor to the slower increase in inflation was food prices, which rose 3.4 per cent in October, down from a 4.0 per cent increase in September.

Despite the deceleration, prices remained elevated and have exceeded overall inflation for nine consecutive months, StatsCan said.

Mortgage interest costs, a part of shelter inflation, increased at an annual pace of 2.9 per cent in October. This was the first time in more than three years that they came down below three per cent.

However, rent inflation, another part of shelter inflation, rose above five per cent, clocking an acceleration for two months in a row.

Due to volatility in prices and the government’s tax breaks, the BoC and economists have tracked the measures of core inflation to gauge price trends.

Canadian dollar weakens on data

One of the core measures of inflation, the CPI-median, or the centermost component of the CPI basket, was at 2.9 per cent in October, down from a downwardly revised 3.1 per cent in September.

The other core measure, CPI-trim, which excludes the most extreme price changes, edged down to 3.0 per cent in October from 3.1 per cent in September.

“It would take a longer period of easing price pressures, combined with indications of economic growth deteriorating again, to bring the Bank of Canada back off the sidelines,” Andrew Grantham, a senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets wrote in a note.

The Canadian dollar weakened a bit after the data and was trading down 0.11 per cent to 1.4035 against the U.S. dollar, or 71.25 U.S. cents. Bond yields for the two-year government bonds fell and were down 0.3 basis points to 2.475 per cent.

Price increases in October were mainly driven by cellular plans and insurance costs.

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In his first observations on Trump’s efforts to influence Fed decision making, Macklem said the impact could be seen on the U.S. dollar.

In the last few months, Trump has cranked up his demands for a rate cut, tried to remove one of the Fed’s governors and repeatedly insisted that Chair Jerome Powell resign at a time when the U.S. president’s trade actions have disrupted the global trade order.

“Why I’m talking about it is that it’s starting to have consequences in financial markets,” Macklem said when asked by reporters about the timing of his comments.

“I do think you are starting to see some impacts, and in that sense, it’s time to talk about it.”

Greenback’s ‘safe haven’ role questioned

Earlier in the day, Macklem told the Saskatoon Chamber of Commerce that Trump’s attempts to influence the Federal Reserve were raising questions about the continued independence of U.S. monetary policy.

He also noted how the U.S. dollar was suffering due to Trump’s actions and accompanying global uncertainty.

“The question now is whether U.S. dominance in global financial flows will ebb as the United States pulls back from trade and runs large fiscal deficits. The recent performance of the U.S. dollar may be telling us something,” Macklem said.

The greenback, he noted, was losing its appeal, falling almost 10 per cent since Trump unleashed a barrage of tariffs globally in April. This, Macklem said, had called the dollar’s safe-haven role into question.

“For now, the greenback remains dominant, and — without a clear alternative — I suspect it will remain the global reserve currency for the foreseeable future. But for many, its value as a hedge in times of stress has been dented,” he said.

He later commended Fed Chair Jerome Powell for “doing a very good job under very trying circumstances,” but stressed the need for the Fed to remain free of political pressure.

“Central banks that have operational independence for monetary policy do a better job at delivering price stability for their citizens,” he said.

Canada ramifications

Macklem said the shifting trade equation with the U.S. had immense ramifications for Canada.

“We can’t afford to wait this out,” he said, adding that Canadian businesses as well as political and economic leaders would need to chart a new course.

“We should have been making these changes 15 years ago. But the next best time is now,” he said.

Canada has long suffered from anemic productivity, which economists and businesses say is helping fuel inflation.

Canada’s economy will work less efficiently, costs will go up and incomes will shrink due to increased trade friction with the U.S., he said, but noted monetary policy would not be able to soften these impacts.

“Monetary policy cannot undo the efficiency costs of U.S. tariffs… nor can counter-cyclical fiscal stimulus,” he said.

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Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast the annual inflation rate at 1.8 per cent and the monthly inflation rate at 0.3 per cent. The CPI increased by 0.3 per cent in July from 0.1 per cent in June on a monthly basis, Statistics Canada said.

Gasoline prices dropped by 16.1 per cent on a yearly basis in July, following a 13.4 per cent decline in June. On a monthly basis the price of he fuel dropped as geopolitical tensions eased and crude oil producing nations increased output.

The elimination of carbon levy on purchase of fuel has helped bring down the cost of the fuel on a yearly basis and is expected to maintain a downward pressure on the CPI basket for another eight months.

This has helped the overall consumer price index to clock a rate below the mid-point of the Bank of Canada’s one per cent to three per cent target range, even as there are signs of rising prices of food.

Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.5 per cent in July, Statscan said.

The main drivers of the increase in costs were rise in food prices and shelter costs, StatsCan said. Food prices, which contributes close to 17 per cent to the overall CPI basket, rose by 3.3 per cent in July from 2.9 per cent in June.

Shelter costs, the biggest component of the CPI basket, rose three per cent in July from 2.9 per cent in June, marking the first increase since February last year. This was driven by a smaller decline in cost of natural gas and rise in rents by 5.1 per cent.

Core measures of inflation, which are closely tracked by the Bank of Canada have remained resilient and hovered around the top of the bank’s preferred range of CPI.

One of the core measures the CPI-median – or the centermost component of the CPI basket when arranged in an order of increasing prices – was at 3.1 per cent in July, from three per cent in June. The CPI-trim, which excludes the most extreme price changes, was unchanged at three per cent.

The share of the CPI basket which is above three per cent continues to be elevated at over 37 per cent, data showed.

Money markets are betting the odds of a rate cut on Sept. 17 at 32 per cent after the bank has stayed put at 2.75 per cent for its last three rate decision meetings.

The Canadian dollar weakened and was trading down 0.11 per cent after the inflation data to 1.3817 to the U.S. dollar, or 72.37 U.S. cents. Two-year government bond yields were down 0.3 basis points to 2.735 per cent.

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