Beef prices set records this year after the nation’s cattle supply dropped to a 75-year low, leading to record prices for meatpackers such as JBS to buy cattle to slaughter, despite benefiting from the climbing prices.

WHY IT MATTERS: The strike at JBS’s Greely, Colorado site has weighed, somewhat, on U.S. beef prices.

The union representing about 3,800 plant workers said the new round of talks would resume on April 9 and 10 after last month’s strike to press for wages that reflect inflation and a halt to company charges for replacing protective equipment.

“Workers remain united and will continue to fight until JBS fully ends its unfair labor practices,” said Kim Cordova, president of the local union representing the Greeley workers.

It is calling for a contract offer that protects workers, shows them the respect they deserve, and pays them a livable wage, he added in a statement.

There had been no new deal or change to the original offer, a JBS spokesperson told Reuters.

“We are pleased to welcome our team members back and are preparing to resume and ramp up operations at the Greeley plant next week,” the spokesperson added in an email.

The strike dealt a blow to U.S. processing capacity, after Tyson Foods closed a beef plant in Nebraska this year and reduced operations at a Texas facility.

The dispute with the workers, represented by the United Food and Commercial Workers Local 7 union, comes as meatpackers typically seek to boost efficiency by running plants at peak capacity to offset hefty running costs.

— Reporting by Gnaneshwar Rajan and Chandni Shah in Bengaluru

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In a March 30 news release, crop insurer Agriculture Financial Services Corporation (AFSC) reported it was republishing AgriStability cattle prices for animals over 900 pounds for the 2024 and 2025 program years.

WHY IT MATTERS: Producers who received AgriStability benefits for heavy weight cattle in 2024 may now face unexpected repayment demands due to a pricing model error outside their control.

AFSC adopted a new model in 2024 to determine cattle prices for the AgriStability program due to “increasing difficulty” accessing cattle pricing data.

As a result, it priced heavy weight cattle based on a different weight assumption than the one used to establish historical prices.

“Inventory valuations did not accurately reflect market realities, leading to inappropriate AgriStability program benefits being issued to clients for the 2024 program year,” read the release.

Once AFSC discovered the inconsistency, it recalculated heavy weight cattle prices for 2024, including a reassessment of files featuring heavy weight cattle.

“The recalculation determined that certain clients had received benefits to which they were not entitled.”

The insurer says it has contacted affected clients to discuss the reassessment of their files.

“We are committed to supporting these producers by offering flexible repayment arrangements, including interest relief where appropriate, to help manage any impact.”

A review of all market prices found the pricing disparity was limited to animal weights over 900 pounds.

“Going forward, AFSC has added additional oversight to the cattle pricing process to monitor and review unusual price movements and ensure greater accuracy.”

AFSC is asking clients with questions or concerns to contact their preferred branch offices, call its client care centre at 1-877-899-2372 or use live chat on AFSC Connect or afsc.ca.

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The company, whose products include beef, poultry and pork, posted a net profit of $415 million (C$574.8 million) for the October-December period, up 0.5 per cent from a year earlier but slightly below the $428 million forecast by analysts polled by LSEG.

JBS said tighter cattle supplies in the United States have driven up livestock costs and squeezed margins in its North American beef division, its largest business by revenue.

Chief Executive Gilberto Tomazoni told Reuters the U.S. cattle supply outlook would remain challenging this year because of the current downturn in the livestock cycle. The company also faces a labor strike at a Colorado plant.

“We don’t think there will be any significant change this year in U.S. cattle supply. It will continue to be a difficult year for us,” he said, adding that strong customer demand could help offset some of the pressure.

North American beef still better than expected

Analysts said despite the pressures on the business, the results from JBS’ North American beef division were better than expected, including the year-over-year margin compression.

“This reflects resilient U.S. demand and disciplined cost management, even as cattle prices remained high,” analysts at JPMorgan wrote.

Santander analysts said they believed tailwinds from derivatives contracts helped to offset elevated U.S. cattle prices, and noted beef demand remained strong despite higher prices.

JBS shares were little changed in after-hours trading. In a separate statement, the firm announced dividends of $1 per share.

JBS’ total adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) fell seven per cent to $1.72 billion (C$2.38 billion), but above analysts’ forecasts of $1.56 billion. The adjusted EBITDA margin fell 1.8 percentage points to 7.4 per cent.

Net revenue rose 15 per cent to a record $23.06 billion (C$31.94 billion), topping analysts’ estimate of $22.38 billion, helped by record sales in its North American and Brazilian beef operations.

Logistics costs and China’s measures

Tomazoni said the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran had increased logistics costs, but he said trade flows remained open and the firm has not seen impacts on protein demand in the Persian Gulf. JBS’ three factories in the Middle East are working normally, he added.

JBS, like other beef exporting companies, also faces restrictions in 2026 on expanding shipments to China, as the Asian country has implemented curbs, including quotas and tariffs, on beef imports from key supplier nations.

He said in Brazil’s case, the country will have to place the volumes that do not go to China in other markets, adding domestic sales could partially offset the impact of the restrictions.

— Additional reporting by Utkarsh Shetti in Bengaluru

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JBS workers strike in Colorado

Beef packers have scaled back production in recent weeks and traders are monitoring developments at a large JBS meatpacking plant in Greeley, Colo., where workers have gone on strike.

The dispute reduces U.S. beef production capacity at a time when consumers face record prices for hamburgers and steaks and Trump has struggled to make good on a pledge to cool costs.

The workers have launched a two-week strike and will remain on the picket lines until JBS negotiates fairly with workers, according to the union.

Beef prices soared after a years-long drought burned up grazing lands and drove ranchers to slash their herds to the lowest level in 75 years.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange April live cattle settled 2.35 cents higher at 233.25 cents per pound (USD). April feeders finished up 12.30 cents at 355.45 cents per pound.

Beef packer margins rose to US$57.10 per head on Monday, up from gains of $45.20 on Friday, and losses of $117.95 a week ago, according to livestock marketing advisory service HedgersEdge.

CME lean hog futures ended up 0.05 cents at 93.50 cents per pound.

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The loss of grass in Oklahoma and Kansas has sent ranchers scrambling for donations of hay to feed their herds as some face the prospect of running out of supplies.

WHY IT MATTERS: Persistent drought has driven U.S. cattle supplies to their lowest numbers since the 1950s and driven prices to record highs.

Since last week, the biggest wildfire, the Ranger Road Fire, burned an estimated 283,283 acres (114,640 hectares) in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, the Oklahoma Department of Agriculture, Food and Forestry said on Monday. It was about 65 per cent contained.

“Grass is gone,” said Collin Domer, 36, a volunteer firefighter for the Laverne Fire Department in Oklahoma who responded to the blaze.

“It’s sand. Take a sand pit and cover that over 285,000 acres.”

Cattle supplies lowest in 75 years

Other fires have burned thousands more acres in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas. Some cattle perished, state and industry officials said, without estimating the number.

“There’s been a lot of cattle loss,” said Bryce Boyer, spokesperson for the Oklahoma Department of Agriculture, Food and Forestry. “There’s been a lot of hay loss. The ones who do have cattle, a lot of them don’t have grass to feed them now.”

U.S. cattle supplies were already at their lowest level in 75 years after high prices and a persistent drought drove ranchers to send more animals to slaughter, instead of keeping them for breeding. Last year, Brazil surpassed the U.S. as the world’s top beef producer, according to industry estimates.

U.S. President Donald Trump has pledged to lower beef costs for consumers. However, retail prices for ground beef set a record high of $6.75 per pound (C$9.24) in January, up 22 per cent from a year earlier, due to low supplies and strong demand from consumers, according to U.S. government data.

Cattle flee fire

Farmers cut fences to allow cattle to escape the wildfire last week, though some animals died and others suffered burns after being caught, said Heather Lansdowne, spokesperson for the Kansas Department of Agriculture. Veterinarians were working with ranchers to determine the best care for hurt animals, she said.

“While they were able to save a lot of cattle, those producers now don’t have anything to feed those cattle,” Lansdowne said.

Once the flames are extinguished, it may take longer than normal for pastures to be ready for grazing again depending on damage from the intense heat, said Michael Kelsey, executive vice president of the Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association.

“That’s a long-term issue for some of those ranches,” he said. “They’ve got to give it a little longer to recover.”

In the meantime, Domer was spearheading an effort to collect hay, feed and other supplies for ranchers. He said he received donations from as far away as Montana and Michigan.

The Kansas Livestock Association was also coordinating hay donations and said it received offers from Kansas, Wisconsin and Illinois for local ranchers.

“The grass resources have been burned up,” association spokesperson Scarlett Madinger said. “They’ve got to have something to feed their livestock immediately.”

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A White House official said in October that Trump would make such a move, evoking fury from the nation’s cattle ranchers.

Trump has faced pressure to address the issue of affordability, which helped propel Democratic candidates to several electoral victories in 2025.

U.S. beef prices set record highs last year, benefiting ranchers who largely supported Trump, due to strong consumer demand and declining cattle supplies.

Ranchers slashed the herd to its lowest level in 75 years as of January 1 following a persistent drought that burned up pastures used for grazing and hiked feeding costs, according to U.S. data.

Unlikely to significantly lower beef costs

Trump’s decision to raise the tariff rate quota on Argentine beef by 80,000 metric tons will let Argentina ship more of its beef to the U.S. at a lower rate of duty. The increase will apply only to lean beef trimmings, which are blended with domestic supplies to make hamburger meat, according to the proclamation.

“Instead of imports that sideline American ranchers, we should be focused on solutions that cut red tape, lower production costs, and support growing our cattle herd,” said Republican U.S. Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska, a major cattle-producing state.

Washington and Buenos Aires signed a broader new trade and investment agreement that will give preferential market access to U.S. goods in Argentina.

Economists have said increased U.S. imports of Argentine beef will likely be too small to significantly lower costs for grocery store shoppers, but the shipments could help improve margins for food companies.

The U.S. imported about 33,000 metric tons of Argentine beef in 2024, representing two per cent of total imports, according to government data.

— Reporting by Tom Polansek, Ismail Shakil and Bhargav Acharya

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Brazil was already the biggest beef exporter, shipping meat worth almost $17 billion (C$23.5 billion) in 2025, according to government trade data released on Tuesday. Beef production numbers are not due until February, but analysts have recently raised their estimates. Farmers have been sending more animals to slaughter, cashing in on high export demand from countries including China and the U.S., where low supply has pushed beef prices to record levels.

Production out-performs forecasts

Elevated slaughter typically leads to a period of low output as producers hold back animals to breed and rebuild herds. But productivity gains in Brazil may limit or even prevent a downturn, people in the industry say. They noted that farms have been inseminating cattle quicker, fattening them faster and slaughtering them younger.

“Ten years ago, the average age of cattle slaughtered in Brazil was five years,” said Vinicius Barbosa, a commercial manager responsible for tens of thousands of cattle at the CMA feedlot in Barretos, about 260 miles (420 km) north of Sao Paulo. “Now it is 36 months and going rapidly to 24,” he said.

Mauricio Nogueira, head of livestock consultancy Athenagro, said Brazilian beef production far surpassed his forecast in 2025. Output grew 4 per cent for the year, where he had predicted a 2.7 per cent drop. The increase of around 800,000 tons was about equal to total annual exports of Argentina, the world’s No. 5 beef shipper.

Rabobank, which had expected Brazil’s beef production to decline in 2025, now sees 0.5 per cent growth to 12.5 million tons carcass weight equivalent. The U.S. Department of Agriculture in December raised its estimate for Brazilian beef output by 450,000 tons to 12.35 million tons.

If the official numbers confirm market estimates, 2025 will be the first year that Brazil’s output will have surpassed U.S. production, which fell 3.9 per cent to 11.8 million tons in 2025, according to USDA estimates, following years of drought.

Feedlots, rising carcass weight drive output

U.S. beef production will fall a further 0.9 per cent to 11.7 million tons in 2026, the USDA said. In Brazil, the USDA and Rabobank project a decline in output, but Nogueira said rising productivity could actually boost Brazil’s production by around 300,000 tons.

Almost 28 per cent of cattle slaughtered in Brazil will be fattened in feedlots by 2027, up from 22 per cent in 2025, according to consultants Scot Consultoria.

“Feedlots do in 100 days for cattle what pasture does in between 18 and 24 months,” said Barbosa, adding that CMA’s Barretos feedlot would process 80,000 cattle in 2026, up from 65,000 last year.

Brazil’s booming corn ethanol industry is generating a byproduct known as dried distillers grains that has higher protein than corn and helps cattle fatten faster, analysts said.

Cows are becoming pregnant more often as farmers adopt more efficient insemination techniques, allowing producers to slaughter more animals without reducing herd size.

Scot Consultoria expects Brazil’s pregnancy rate – the proportion of females that become pregnant during a breeding season – to rise to 54 per cent in 2027 from an expected 50 per cent in 2026.

Better genetics are also improving cattle growth and boosting meat quality, analysts say. And Brazil still has not matched the 90 per cent proportion of cattle passing through feedlots as in the U.S., or Australia’s 40 per cent.

If Brazil’s pregnancy rate rose to 66 per cent, equivalent to neighbouring Argentina, the number of calves birthed each year would rise from an estimated 32 million to 40 million, according to consultants Datagro. The pregnancy rate in Canada is 96 per cent, they said.

Government data show Brazil has 238 million cattle, well over double the 94 million in the U.S. Higher productivity would allow output to expand without increasing cattle numbers or the area of pasture land. That could ease one economic driver of deforestation of the Amazon rainforest.

Brazil’s cattle herd is expected to grow just four per cent between 2024 and 2034 while beef production increases 24 per cent, according to Brazilian beef exporter group ABIEC. U.S. beef production will rise 3.5 per cent and cattle numbers will grow five per cent over that period, by USDA estimates.

Brazil key as top producers scale back

Global beef prices will hinge on whether Brazil can avoid a production downturn this year.

The USDA expects output in the world’s six biggest producers to fall in 2026 by a combined 2.4 per cent – the biggest annual drop in decades – after rising 0.4 per cent in 2025. These producers are Brazil, the U.S., China, the European Union, Argentina and Australia. The list excludes India, which the USDA names as one of the six top beef producers even though that country produces buffalo meat rather than beef.

The USDA expects Brazilian production to fall 5.3 per cent to 11.7 million tons carcass weight equivalent this year. If Nogueira’s estimates are confirmed and output rises instead to around 12.6 million tons, the decline in the top six producers would be just 0.2 per cent.

“There has never been so much international demand for Brazilian beef,” said Guilherme Jank, a Datagro analyst, adding that local beef packers have also ramped up capacity.

“We are witnessing firsthand a significant shift in how the beef cattle supply system works in Brazil, in terms of quality, scale, efficiency, and productivity,” he said.

— Additional reporting by Ella Cao in Beijing and Tom Polansek in Chicago

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But while the future can’t be known for sure, there are certain trends that analysts look for when making market forecasts.

Heifer retention is a big one, said Lee Irvine, a beef specialist with ATB Financial, during a recent the Cattle, Commodities and Market Insights conference in Brooks, Alta.

“I watch it religiously, with every single kind of cattle on feed and placement side. That tells me where our numbers are at. If the heifers are hitting the feed yard, they’re not going to get bred back,” said Irvine.

However, a deeper dive into the numbers is necessary.

Heifer retention is down by approximately six per cent in the last cattle-on-feed reports.

However, the number jumps to 30 per cent when looking at the 600- to 800-pound weight category.

Irvine has not seen the latest cattle-on-feed reports from the United States because of the U.S. government shutdown, but is seeing similar trends there as well.

“So the question now that we can’t answer from a key performance indicator is, ‘OK, are those cattle going to stay on the ranch and actually go into the cow herd and continue to expand the cap, or are they just waiting until the fall to market them?’” Irvine said.

Checking the price of beef at the grocery store can help gauge consumer patterns, said Anton Bellot, director of agri-business and agri-food for ATB Wealth.

He last checked numbers that showed that for every dollar Canadians earn, they are $1.40 in debt.

“It is quite substantial, and that’s making a huge impact on the grocery shelves. That’s probably the number-one leading indicator I look at. Whether it’s on a beef producer, or on the cropping side, that commodity has to get value added to end up on a grocery store or in a restaurant,” said Bellot.

Canadian consumers have responded to American tariffs with “buy local” efforts, but in the end, he said, the price tag reigns supreme when family budgets are so tight.

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Producers in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, and soon Nova Scotia, will have access to a program that will allow them to purchase insurance on price protection for their beef cattle in case of an unforeseen market disruption.

The Maritime Livestock Price Insurance Pilot Program will be a two-year pilot project.

The lack of a program has meant more risk for Maritime beef farmers and challenges for young farmers to get bank loans without a way to mitigate that risk.

British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba all have the Western Livestock Price Insurance Program. Ontario has a Risk Management Program and Quebec has its Programme d’assurance stabilisation des revenus agricoles (ASRA).

The Canadian Cattle Association (CCA) “has long been advocating for an expansion to LPI (livestock production insurance) in the Maritimes given that producers in the region have been operating without this viable risk management tool,” said Nathan Phinney, CCA president and a beef producer in the Maritimes.

“The announcement by Minister MacAulay and his Maritime provincial counterparts is welcome news following the momentum built at last year’s Federal, Provincial and Territorial Agriculture Ministers’ meeting in Fredericton.”

The announced pilot project follows years of advocacy by both CCA and the Canadian Cattle Youth Council, following the implementation of LPI in the western provinces. LPI is a valuable tool for beef cattle producers in navigating uncertainty and risks related to adverse weather events. It is also critical for those entering the sector or looking to expand their operations.

“While the announcement of a pilot in the Maritime region is a step in the right direction, it needs to last longer than two years to impact longer term farm planning,” said Scott Gerbrandt, president of the Canadian Cattle Youth Council.

The program is funded by both federal and provincial governments.

“The livestock industry on PEI is such an important part of our farming ecosystem. Supporting this sector will assist in its advancement, and ultimately growth for the greater agricultural community,” said Bloyce Thompson, PEI deputy premier and minister of Agriculture.

How it works

Through the new initiative, purchasers pay 100 per cent of the premiums while both federal and provincial governments are making investments to administer the pilot program for producers.

On PEI, the Maritime Livestock Price Insurance Pilot Program will be administered by the Prince Edward Island Agricultural Insurance Corporation.

For more information on the Maritime Livestock Price Insurance Pilot Program visit, www.princeedwardisland.ca/MLPIPP.

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These should be signs of health in Canada’s beef sector, but instead there’s pain throughout the value chain, says an industry expert.

“The number of winners in an inflationary price environment are actually few and far between because all of the players have record-high input costs and are looking for record-high output costs,” said Brenna Grant, executive director of Canfax, the market analysis branch of the Canadian Cattle Association.

“It’s not that they’re necessarily gaining margin, and in some cases, they’re actually losing margin.”

Canadian cattle prices have reached levels not seen since 2015 but the economic environment today is a far cry from what it was eight years ago, said Grant.

“For a feedlot today in Alberta to have the same margins that they had in 2015, they would actually need cattle prices to be 74 per cent higher than they are today,” she said. “And that’s because input costs are so much higher than they were in 2015.”

Cow-calf producers might be the only ones in the production chain who have benefited from high prices, she added. However, this doesn’t mean they’re making money hand over fist. Rather, it’s helped them absorb higher feed costs and rebuild herds liquidated in response to the 2021 drought.

“Higher prices are definitely positive for the cow-calf sector, but it really does depend on how they’re impacted on the cost side and on their production system,” Grant said.

“One of the biggest costs is hay for winter feed and winter feed in general. Some cow-calf producers are still recovering from the ‘21 drought in terms of having enough rain to rebuild pasture conditions and feed supplies.”

Higher feed costs coupled with ongoing drought south of the border have changed the supply situation in North America. The U.S. cattle herd is now the smallest it’s been since 1962.

Any rebound is years away.

“(The U.S. has) gotten some improved moisture conditions in several regions this spring, which has been very positive,” said Grant. “But there are areas and regions in the U.S. that are still dry and in need of moisture, so that’s going to continue to affect their cow slaughter in terms of where their herd size is going moving forward.”

But consumers are hurting the most in this inflationary environment, she said.

“When you think of the grain guy, he’s looking for those record-high grain prices because he has record-high fertilizer and fuel prices. The feedlot guy is looking at the fact that he’s got to pay for these record-high feed prices and needs the record-high cattle prices.

“That continues to the packing plant, which needs the record-high cutout values because they’re paying record-high cattle prices. And that means that the big losers are those low-income households around the world where this really impacts food security.”

Right now, the consumer doesn’t have much choice but to accept high prices if they want to continue buying meat. So far, all three major animal proteins (beef, poultry and pork) have maintained traditional pricing relationships because all are experiencing the same kind of input costs.

However, that could change, said Grant.

“There’s large supplies of pork in North America that are pressuring the pork cutout and it’s going to be very difficult to move (beef price) upward in this current climate.”

This could lead to demand erosion for beef as a surplus of pork makes the latter more competitive at the meat counter.

“It’s really about watching what’s going to happen in the hog market situation and if they’re able to maintain their cutout for those price relationships moving forward,” Grant said.

None of this is hurting Canadian beef production. Last year saw near-record-high production — the largest since 2008 and only about one per cent lower than the all-time record set in 2002.

This occurred in spite of a contracting Canadian beef cow herd. It has been on a long downward trend for years, and shrank by almost two per cent between 2021 and 2022.

Although there were fewer cattle, producers remained competitive by becoming “significantly more efficient,” said Grant.

“We basically had carcass weights last year that were 98 pounds heavier than they were in 2002,” she said. “If you’re going to add an additional 100 pounds to every animal, you don’t need as many animals. We need to remember that demand from the consumer is based on tonnes of beef produced, not on the number of head.”

However, a smaller herd has other impacts.

“The reason why people are concerned about cow herds is because that determines acres of land that stay in native grass,” said Grant. “We want to keep marginal lands in native grass in terms of keeping the carbon that they store there and supporting wildlife habitat.”

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