Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global transit chokepoint, has been disrupted after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, rattling markets and constraining trade flows through the narrow route that connects Gulf exporters with global buyers.

“While there has been a limited impact on our ocean-going vessels, Bunge’s teams are closely monitoring the situation,” the spokesperson said.

On Wednesday, Canadian agrichemical company Nutrien said it was closely engaged with customers as conditions in the Middle East region continue to evolve.

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The Missouri-based company reported both its weakest fourth quarter and lowest annual adjusted profit since 2019.

Bunge shares were down five per cent in premarket trading after soaring more than 30 per cent since the start of the year.

A global grains glut has weighed on crop prices, thinned processing and eroded profitability in the agribusiness sector, affecting Bunge and peers such as ADM and Cargill. Trade turmoil triggered by U.S. President Trump’s tariff wars and uncertainty over biofuels policies further dragged on earnings as customers became more cautious due to market uncertainty, reluctant to book deals beyond the near-term.

Bunge reported adjusted earnings of $1.99 per share (C$2.72) for the quarter ended December 31, down from $2.13 a year earlier, but above the consensus analyst estimate of $1.81, according to data compiled by LSEG. Full-year 2025 adjusted profit fell to $7.57 a share (C$10.34), from $9.19 a year earlier.

The company forecast 2026 adjusted earnings per share between $7.50 and $8.00 (C$10.25 to $10.93), below Wall Street expectations of $8.71.

Disruptions, delays drag profits

Bunge’s expanded grain handling and processing capacity following its merger with Viterra in mid-2025 has boosted volumes and revenue, but trade disruptions and delays in finalizing biofuels policies have dragged on profitability, particularly in the United States.

Bunge CEO Greg Heckman said “forward visibility remains limited amid dynamic market conditions.”

The U.S. Treasury Department on Tuesday published proposed rules governing how biofuel makers can access larger tax credits for producing green fuels. The rules would incentivize use of feedstocks from North American oilseed crops like soy and canola and include tweaks to methodology for calculating the carbon intensity of feedstocks.

The market is still awaiting final rules on biofuel blending quotas, expected next month. They are expected to keep quotas close to an initial proposal boosting volumes while dropping a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and feedstocks.

Rival grain trader Archer-Daniels-Midland, whose operations are more concentrated in the U.S., forecast 2026 adjusted profit below analysts’ expectations on Tuesday due to the deferral of U.S. biofuel policy.

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The firms exiting the so-called Amazon Soy Moratorium, which has saved millions of acres of tropical forest over nearly two decades, are looking to shield themselves from a new state law in Mato Grosso, the sources said on condition of anonymity.

Starting in January, the state will strip tax incentives from companies taking part in the conservation program. Mato Grosso grew some 51 million metric tons of soybeans in 2025, more than Argentina.

A preliminary report from state auditors in April found that grains traders had benefited from tax incentives worth about 4.7 billion reais (C$1.15 billion) between 2019 and 2024.

ADM and Bunge were the top beneficiaries of tax incentives, receiving about 1.5 billion reais (C$368.6 million) each, said Sergio Ricardo, head of the Mato Grosso state audit court.

U.S.-based ADM, Bunge and Cargill, as well as China’s Cofco and Brazil’s Amaggi, are signatories of the pact with facilities in Mato Grosso that have benefited from state tax incentives. It was not clear which of the firms would break immediately from the moratorium.

Cargill referred questions to industry group Abiove, which did not respond to requests for comment. ADM, Bunge, Cofco, Amaggi and grain exporter group Anec did not respond to questions.

“Most companies will choose not to lose the tax incentives and will withdraw from the agreement,” said one of the sources, adding that the departures would effectively end a pact signed in 2006 with the federal government and conservation groups.

‘Dangerous precedent’

The moratorium is considered one of the most important forces slowing deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon over the past two decades as it bars signatories from buying soybeans from farmers who plant on land deforested after July 2008.

Researchers estimate that an area of the rainforest the size of Ireland would have been lost to soy farms in Brazil without the moratorium and related conservation efforts, compared to the pace of expansion in neighboring countries such as Bolivia.

The Mato Grosso law, which lawmakers passed in 2023, is the latest example of a global retreat from pacts and policies to curb climate change, even as temperatures break records, driven by rising fossil fuel use and deforestation.

Critics of the soy moratorium say that the pact restricts the market and hurts farmers. Farming groups in Mato Grosso say the protocol reduces the income and economic development of the state.

“Companies could choose to keep their zero-deforestation commitments,” said Cristiane Mazzetti, who oversees the moratorium for Greenpeace. “It’s a dangerous precedent, and it’s not what we need in a moment of climate emergency,” she added.

Brazil’s federal government has argued in court against the new Mato Grosso law stripping tax breaks from traders due to their environmental commitments.

“If the Mato Grosso government really removes those incentives, we have heard that some, or many, companies will in fact abandon the moratorium for economic reasons,” said Andre Lima, a senior Environment Ministry official tasked with combating deforestation. He added that firms had not officially informed the ministry of their plans.

Far-reaching consequences

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has vowed an “ecological transformation” of the Brazilian economy, capped off with the United Nations climate summit hosted in the Amazon last month.

But in domestic politics, his leftist government is often fighting a rearguard battle to protect the world’s largest rainforest from a farm lobby with the upper hand in Congress.

The unraveling of the Amazon Soy Moratorium is likely to embolden those rural powerbrokers and their allies. This year the farm lobby has successfully gutted environmental permitting laws and stripped some protections from Indigenous lands.

The trend has caught the attention of farmer groups in Europe arguing to block a free trade agreement between the European Union and South America’s Mercosur due to the impact of Brazilian agribusiness on vital ecosystems.

Brazil’s Supreme Court has barred some but not all of the farm lobby’s agenda in Congress, based on constitutional protections for the environment and Indigenous peoples.

Environmentalists warn that the end of the soy moratorium could pave the way to dismantle other environmental protections in the world’s largest soybean producer, including part of Brazil’s forestry code restricting farmers from felling trees on 80 per cent of their properties in the Amazon.

Lawsuits

In recent years, soybean farmers pushed state lawmakers in Mato Grosso, Rondonia and Maranhao to strip tax benefits from companies taking part in environmental pacts more restrictive than Brazilian law.

It remains unclear which environmental commitments outside the soy moratorium will trigger those new state laws, which could threaten a range of other companies, including cellulose producers and meatpackers.

Brazilian antitrust agency CADE has separately opened an investigation of the soy moratorium for a potential breach of competition rules. For nearly two decades, trading firms have shared the cost of monitoring soy farms in the Amazon to avoid buying from those planting on newly deforested land.

Starting in January, CADE has ordered traders “to refrain from collecting, storing, sharing, or disseminating commercial information related to the sale, production, or acquisition of soybeans.”

Soy farmers in Mato Grosso have also sued grain traders for roughly $180 million over their role in the pact.

In temporary rulings, Supreme Court Justice Flavio Dino stopped the antitrust investigation, but let the Mato Grosso law take effect. Environmental groups are still trying to block the state law ahead of a final court ruling on the issue.

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All five have been sold to local companies, according to a press release.

Direct Grain Ltd. will operate Dixon, Sask., Linear Grain Inc. bought Fannystelle, Man., and BP & Sons Grain and Storage Inc. purchased elevators in Manitoba at Beausejour, Tucker and Coulter.

A sixth sale, of the facility in Valparaiso, Sask., is still waiting for approval from the federal transport minister. Bunge said it expects that sale to close shortly.

The company said the six facilities had been held separate from the rest of its business and run by an independent Hold Separate Manager since July 2. A government-approved third party monitored the sales process.

Bunge also sold its elevator in Eyebrow, Sask., to F. W. Cobs, but that wasn’t part of its commitment under the merger approval.

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Strong South American soybean exports boosted results in Bunge’s soybean processing and refining segment after bumper harvests in Argentina and Brazil and as top soy importer China shunned U.S. supplies due to trade tensions.

The earnings beat comes as Bunge and its agribusiness peers have grappled with ample global crop supplies and slumping margins, and as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats upended global trade.

Trade, biofuels policy expected to drag on profits

Ongoing trade and biofuels policy uncertainty will be a drag on fourth-quarter earnings as farmers selling crops to Bunge and customers buying its products have been reluctant to book deals beyond the near term, company executives said, pressuring margins for Bunge.

“Policy decisions, including biofuels and trade, remain in flux as we look ahead to 2026,” CEO Greg Heckman said.

Bunge’s adjusted profit of $2.27 per share (C$3.21) for the quarter ended September 30 was its lowest third-quarter result since 2019, although it topped analysts’ average estimate of $2.09 per share, according to LSEG data.

The company reaffirmed its previous earnings guidance of between $7.30 and $7.60 per share for 2025, noting headwinds from policy uncertainty but adding that conditions were “developing favorably.”

Merger with Viterra bolstered profits

Rival grains trader Archer-Daniels-Midland lowered its 2025 outlook on Tuesday to a six-year low as trade and policy uncertainty sapped demand and eroded margins.

Bunge’s completed merger with Viterra bolstered its crop marketing and origination capacity and expanded its soy processing business in Argentina.

The company’s soybean processing and refining segment posted an adjusted quarterly profit of $478 million, a 67 per cent gain from the same quarter a year earlier, while softseed processing and refining unit profit more than doubled.

Profit in Bunge’s grain merchandising and milling division was up 56 per cent, as higher wheat milling and ocean freight earnings more than offset poor grain merchandising results.

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Shares of the company, however, rose 11.6 per cent in early trading. UBS analyst Manav Gupta said investors had feared a worse outlook.

“Dilution is coming in much better than expected. This lifts the overhang on the stock and we expect a big relief rally in this name,” Gupta said in a note.

Why it matters: The merger of Viterra and Bunge, which created a company of similar scale to Archer-Daniels-Midland and Cargill, raised concerns among Canadian farm groups over the effects of market consolidation.

Bunge completed its merger with Glencore-backed Viterra in July, two years after announcing the $34 billion (C$47.7 billion) mega-deal.

“We believe based on updated provided today, that Viterra might not cause any dilution in 2026, setting up for a potentially big beat and raise for 2026,” Gupta added.

The merger with the Netherlands-based Viterra creates a global crop trading and processing giant that is poised to rival agribusiness giants Archer-Daniels-Midland and Cargill.

Meanwhile, slumping grain prices, weak crop-processing margins and geopolitical tensions have eroded profitability in the sector.

Bunge does not plan to provide specific outlook for 2026 until the first half of the year as it is navigating biofuel policy uncertainties and trade issues, company executives told investors on a conference call.

From the third quarter, its results will include separate segments for soybean, softseed, other oilseeds, as well as another division for grain merchandising and milling.

Bunge projects softseeds to become more “meaningful” and the combined company to see a big increase in handling and processing of corn, wheat and barley.

The company now expects 2025 adjusted earnings per share between $7.30 and $7.60 (C$10.25 to $10.67), compared with $7.75 per share forecast earlier. Analysts estimate the company’s full-year adjusted profit per share at $7.47, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Bunge is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on November 5.

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The deal covers assets previously owned by Viterra that Bunge had offered to sell in order to secure European Union approval for its US$34 billion merger with Viterra.

In Hungary, the activities include an oilseed processing plant in Fokto that is one of Europe’s largest sunflower seed crushing facilities, LDC said in a statement.

The Polish assets feature an oilseed facility at Bodaczow that accounts for around 15 per cent of Poland’s total rapeseed crush volume, it said.

The deal also covers trading offices in the Hungarian capital Budapest and the Polish port city of Gdansk.

Financial terms for the deal were not disclosed.

The acquisition would allow LDC to expand in the sunflower market and in Central European countries, complementing its existing grains and meals business in Poland, Andre Roth, LDC’s head of grains and oilseeds, said in the statement.

Bunge officially completed its merger with Viterra at the start of July, two years after announcing the transaction.

— Reporting by Gus Trompiz and Sudip Kar-Gupta

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Glencore became the owner of the 16.4 per cent stake after Bunge closed a long-delayed deal to merge with Glencore-backed grain handler Viterra in July, two years after announcing the $34 billion (C$46.7 billion) mega-deal.

“The agriculture business is not necessarily consistent with our business model,” Glencore CEO Gary Nagle told a media call on Wednesday after the company released its first-half financial results. “Having a 16.4 per cent shareholding in Bunge is probably not something that would be for Glencore in the long term.”

He added that this did not mean Glencore would be in a rush to sell the stake, and if it ever decided to do that “we would do it in absolute collaboration and conjunction with Bunge, its board and its management”.

The merger with Viterra enhanced Bunge’s grain exporting and oilseed processing businesses in the United States and expanded Bunge’s export capacity and physical grain storage and handling footprint in major wheat suppliers Canada and Australia, according to analysts.

Glencore’s aim is to maximize the value of this investment, while the possible “exit of that at some stage in the future would be done very smartly and carefully to ensure that we preserve that value,” the CEO added.

Glencore said on July 2 that its 16.4 per cent stake in enlarged Bunge had a market value of $2.6 billion (C$3.6 billion) at the deal close, and that those shares were viewed by the miner as a surplus capital.

— Reporting by Polina Devitt

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“Today is a defining moment for our company,” said Bunge CEO Greg Heckman in a news release. “Together we’ve formed a stronger organization with enhanced capabilities and expertise.”

Bunge and Viterra announced intentions to merge the companies in June 2023. China granted its approval to the US$34 billion merger in mid-June of this year — the final regulatory hurdle to the deal.

Canada approved the merger on January 14 with conditions that Bunge would divest of six Western Canadian grain elevators, invest at least C$520 million in Canada within five years, and with strict controls on Bunge’s minority stake in grain company G3.

Canadian farmers’ concerns

The merger, which creates a grain giant on par with Cargill and Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), has raised concerns about the effects of market consolidation.

The Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan commissioned a study by three University of Saskatchewan academics, which found that the merger could increase the export basis by 15 per cent and crush margins by 10 per cent, resulting in a $770 million net annual loss to farmers.

Bunge chief executive officer Greg Heckman responded to that study in an op-ed piece, saying the findings were based on false assumptions and incomplete data.

For instance, a fundamental assumption of the academics’ model was that the merged enterprise would operate the G3 and Viterra grain export capacities as a single firm, which Bunge says is “objectively false.”

Canada’s Competition Bureau also reported the deal was “likely to result in substantial anti-competitive effects and a significant loss of rivalry between Viterra and Bunge in agricultural markets in Canada”.

It also determined the transaction was to likely to harm competition in markets for grain purchasing in Western Canada, as well as for the sale of canola oil in Eastern Canada. Bunge and Viterra disputed these claims.

Diversified supply chains

With the merger complete, the company will be positioned to “connect farmers in the world’s largest production regions to areas with the fastest-growing consumption,” Bunge said in the Wednesday news release.

The company will see better geographic balance of its value chains, access to more origination markets, and a diversified network covering all major crops, it said. The combined company also expects to see more stable cash flows and improved business risk and credit profiles.

Under the merger terms, Swiss-based Glencore received 32.8 million shares in Bunge, representing 16.4 per cent of the enlarged company, and around $900 million in cash which will be subject to later adjustment under the merger terms, Glencore said in a statement.

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Why it matters: The proposed merger is controversial among Canadian farm groups, which fear market consolidation will hurt farmers’ bottom line.

Confirmation came after Bunge announced it had received regulatory approval from China last Friday.

The regulator said the merged company’s increased market share and control could potentially reduce competition in China’s imported soybean, barley, and rapeseed markets, and thus approved the deal with conditions.

Under these conditions, Bunge and Viterra committed to five obligations, including a requirement to report quarterly sales volumes to Chinese customers within 30 days after each quarter’s end.

They must also maintain a “timely, stable, reliable, and sufficient” supply of soybeans, rapeseed, and other agricultural products, “making every effort” to uphold this during global crop shortages.

China’s approval was the last regulatory green light Bunge needed after conditional approvals from Canada, the European Union, and other markets in recent months.

The deal will create a global crop trading and processing giant rivaling Archer-Daniels-Midland and Cargill, though competition concerns and regulatory scrutiny delayed the closing by nearly a year.

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