The USDA releases its prospective plantings report on March 31, providing the first survey-based estimates on the upcoming U.S. growing season.

The trade sentiment ahead of the report is for a three-to-five-million-acre reduction in corn area from the 98.8 million acres grown in 2025 and a similarly sized increase in soybeans from the 81.2 million acres grown last year. Rising fertilizer costs due to the war could see even more area shift to soybeans.

Soybean/corn ratio

The soybean/corn ratio is calculated by dividing the soybean futures price by the corn futures price, with a number above 2.5 historically seen as favouring planting soybeans and a ratio below that tipping the scales to corn.

With May soybeans settling at US$11.7175 and corn at US$4.6725 on March 25, the ratio works out to 2.51 — slightly favouring soybeans.

However, the localized cash bid ratios across the countryside are more varied. Looking at a sampling of elevators in Illinois and Iowa the local soybean/corn ratios range from 2.35 to 2.65, meaning seeding corn looks more favourable in some areas and soybeans in others.

The high fertilizer costs and other metrics are also not caught in the ratio, which should keep speculation on the annual fight for acres at the forefront of the trade in the coming weeks.

Charts

May corn has traded in a range of US$4.40 to US$4.76 per bushel since the Middle East war started on Feb. 28. Fund traders added to the bullish bets, to sit on their largest net long in corn since February 2025 at about 230,000 contracts. The trend is still higher in corn, as that market looks to keep too many acres from flipping to soybeans.

May soybeans settled at US$11.7075 per bushel on Feb. 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel first attacked Iran and hit a session high of US$12.3875 per bushel two weeks later. However, the contract was right back where it started by March 25.

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“The markets (in 2022) were telling farmers to plant every acre that they could,” Lilja said. “The Russian-Ukraine war has been in a heavy agricultural producing area.”

“That spring, we were just coming off of a South American drought. Supplies of soybeans, corn and wheat were historically on the low side,” he added, noting there were a number of limit up days in the commodities, especially for wheat.

Today, Lilja said the situation is different, despite the hikes in soybeans, corn and wheat. There hasn’t been any limit up days.

“You can argue the view from South America right now, they have come off record yields,” he said.

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For 2025/26 soybeans, Brazil is on its way to another record harvest that’s to be about 180 million tonnes, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. Plus, Brazil is to have strong corn yields that are to produce a crop of around 132 million tonnes. Also, Argentina had a record wheat harvest of about 27.8 million tonnes.

As well, Iran isn’t as a major wheat producer that Russia and Ukraine are. Lilja said the latter two countries combined will provide about 108 million tonnes of wheat, while Iran’s production is maybe one-tenth of that.

Added to that, the U.S. situation is much different between 2022 and 2026. Lilja said U.S. wheat ending stocks four years ago were in a range of 570 million to 670 million bushels. The USDA has forecasted the 2025/26 carryover at 931 million bushels.

“We just haven’t seen the huge price spike that we saw back in February and March of 2022,” he said, but stressed the commodities are still following the increases in crude oil.

“The night crude oil spiked up (March 15-16) was the recent highs for U.S. soybeans, corn and wheat,” he continued.

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Terry Reilly, an independent analyst, said soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade is the commodity most closely following the lead of crude oil, with the latter almost touching US$120 per barrel earlier this week. The May soyoil contract closed at 67.16 U.S. cents per pound on March 11, up 3.57 cents or 5.6 per cent from the week before.

While corn, soybean and wheat prices won’t be as closely tied to crude oil as soyoil, Reilly said their movement will still be determined elsewhere.

“The outside markets will continue to drive the markets for at least until when the conflict starts to wind down,” he added. “Fertilizer is going to be heavily impacted and it will drive up the costs for farmers across the globe. It’s shifting some ideas and we could see less acres go into the ground this spring across North America.”

There was also speculation the United States Environmental Protection Agency may submit its 2026 renewal fuel standard later this week, which could increase the need for corn (ethanol) and soybeans (biodiesel). However, Reilly doesn’t anticipate any increased demand.

“Currently, the prices of some of the feed stocks like canola oil going to California or (used cooking oil) and tallow, their prices are at a discount to soybean oil,” he explained. “I don’t see any greater demand for alternative fuel sources, but no doubt we’ll probably be blending as much ethanol as we can.”

Reilly added he was surprised to see the U.S. Department of Agriculture trim projected soyoil use for biofuel by 800 million pounds at 14 billion in its monthly supply/demand estimates released on March 10. But there were little changes to projected U.S. corn, soybean and wheat stocks. While Reilly thought corn and soybean exports were “on the low side”, he believes the trade is more focused on new crop plantings.

“We still have several months to go until the end of the regular crop year,” Reilly said. “But either way, U.S. soybean stocks are expected to be pretty tight at the end of the season as China continues to buy U.S. beans.”

The war in Iran will continue to leave the trade guessing and keep prices higher, Reilly stated, adding that some analysts believe crude oil could surpass US$150/barrel. However, prices should stabilize once the war ends.

“I think after things start to cool down a little bit, I’d look for prices to get lower,” he said.

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At its February annual agriculture outlook forum, the United States Department of Agriculture predicted corn plantings in the country would be down by four million acres this year while soybeans would be up by 3.8 million acres. Corn futures dropped sharply in late January on confirmation of the large 2025 crop but have subsequently trended steadily higher with the expectations for a smaller acreage base in 2026 contributing to the gains.

“We’ve seen a gradual steady increase in corn prices since the very bearish January crop report … it’s just grinding it’s way higher,” said Tom Lilja, of Progressive Ag in Fargo, North Dakota.

The next big report will be the USDA’s planting intentions estimates at the end of March. If corn area is down by four million acres on the year, Lilja expects the corn market could have more room to the upside — at least in the new crop contracts. However, he added that “we know we’re sitting on a good chunk of old crop corn.”

For soybeans, in addition to the likelihood of increased U.S. acres, Lilja said the large Brazilian crop created “a strong headwind on the market.”

Iran war

The escalating war in the Middle East between Iran and the U.S. sent crude oil and vegetable oil markets climbing higher, but the reaction so far has been more muted in the grain markets. Lilja was surprised by the reaction in wheat especially, as it had rallied sharply in tandem with oil four years ago when Russia invaded Ukraine.

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Soybeans

One of those unknowns is the additional eight million tonnes of United States soybeans China is to buy, President Donald Trump said recently. It’s believed that China fulfilled its promise to purchase 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans and Trump claimed on social media they were going to buy more.

“The problem is China hasn’t confirmed nor denied any of this,” Lusk said.

He also pointed out the U.S. 45Z biofuel tax credit and the biofuel mandate, could be favourable or unfavourable to soybeans depending on the choices to be made by the Trump administration.

A sharp increase in Indonesia importing U.S soymeal would be very supportive. Lusk said that country is to buy up 3.8 million tonnes of U.S. soymeal compared to its current imports of 260,000 tonnes.

Corn and Wheat

Another issue Lusk pointed out is the U.S. Department of Agriculture Outlook Forum forecasting 2026/27 corn ending stocks at 1.84 billion bushels. That would be a drop from 2.13 billion/bu. the USDA projected for 2025/26.

“They’re assuming good weather. You don’t assume that,” Lusk said, but acknowledged the weather over the last few years has been quite good for U.S. crops.

For wheat, Lusk said the weather threats in Eastern Europe and in parts of the U.S. have dissipated and that should limit prices from going much higher.

Tariffs

He mentioned the reduction or elimination of tariffs would also help U.S. commodity prices.

Recently, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled Trump exceeded his authority to impose many of his levies. However, the president said he will enact new 15 per cent surcharges using different legislation.

Iran

Lusk warned that any U.S. attack on Iran or a regime change in that Middle East country would increase crude oil prices.

“Higher crude prices are to support higher grain prices,” he said. “You don’t want to be caught short.”

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Scott Capinegro, hedging specialist for AgMarket.net, said May corn was approaching a February low but is setting itself up for a March rally. As for wheat, he said funds were short and technicals were conducive for rallies the past week.

Soybeans’ rise can be attributed to rallying soyoil, of which the May contract had a weekly gain of 1.58 cents per pound. But the White House is expected to announce its biodiesel fuel blend in the coming days.

“That one could end up being ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact,’” he said. “We’re racing to meet a self-imposed deadline by the end of March. We’ve already put that rally into the market.”

Exports also should be giving support to corn and soybeans, said Capinegro.

“The corn exports continue to be good, but the corn market does act sloppy. We are breaking to the lower end of the range (in March corn). As for soybeans, it’s China, China, China,” he said, adding that the U.S. is waiting for Lunar New Year celebrations to end before shipping more beans to China.

The United States Department of Agriculture will host its 2026 Agricultural Outlook Forum from Feb. 19 to 20 in Arlington, Va. Capinegro said many are expecting projected corn acres to be trimmed while those for soybeans are raised. However, one grain’s loss could benefit two major crops.

“Are they taking into consideration (the loss) of a lot of rice acres down south?” he said. “They’re going into corn and beans.”

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“February isn’t really known for rallies in the grain markets,” said analyst Sean Lusk of Walsh Trading in Chicago, adding that “there’s not much going on.” He expected the markets may hold rangebound in the short-term.

Corn

In its February report the USDA raised its call for U.S. corn exports in 2025/26 by 100 million bushels from January to 3.3 billion bushels, and lowered its carryout forecast by the same amount.

While the record-large export demand was a supportive price influence, “there’s just too much corn out there right now,” said Lusk. He added that there are still questions over the size of the 2025 corn harvest after the USDA’s surprising upward revisions to harvested area and yields in January.

Soybeans

The USDA left its domestic numbers unchanged from January in the February report, despite recent talk from the White House that China would increase its purchases of U.S. soybeans this year to 20 million tonnes.

While increased Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans should be supportive, “there’s a bumper crop coming out of Brazil,” said Lusk. If China is buying more U.S. soybeans, the Brazilian beans will just move elsewhere in the world resulting in a “zero sum game,” he added.

The USDA will hold its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum Feb. 19-20, with the event providing the agency’s first look at 2026 acreage ideas. Given the current price relationship between soybeans and corn, Lusk expected to see increased soybean planting intentions and a reduction in corn on the year.

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New Trump/Xi deal

“Today’s story is … China agreed with Trump over the phone to buy 20 million tonnes of soybeans instead of 12 million,” said Ryan Ettner, broker with Allendale Inc. in McHenry, Ill.

On a Feb. 4 phone call, United States President Donald Trump discussed several matters with Chinese President Xi Jinping, including agriculture.

Afterward, Trump posted on Truth Social that “… the consideration by China of the purchase of additional Agricultural products including lifting the Soybean count to 20 Million Tons for the current season (They have committed to 25 Million Tons for next season!)…”

Previous deal

In the fall, Trump and Xi agreed that China would buy 12 million tonnes of old crop U.S. soybeans. China made those acquisitions a lot quicker than the market expected and is now set to buy another eight million tonnes before the end of the 2025/26 soybean marketing year.

During that fall meeting, China agreed to purchase 25 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans for the next three years.

Bean prices higher

Over the course of the week ended Feb. 4, March soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade had a net gain of 17.25 cents at US$10.9225 per bushel. March soyoil climbed 1.35 cents at 55.66 cents per pound, but March soymeal shed US$1.20 at US$296.20 per short ton.

USDA likely won’t cut export forecast

Ettner said the Feb. 4 U.S.-China agreement could have an affect on the Feb. 10 supply and demand estimates from the Department of Agriculture. He suggested the USDA was most likely set to lower some of its export forecasts, including that for soybeans.

“Now we get this China agreement and there really isn’t a reason why we would expect them to lower exports,” Ettner said. “That may mean they leave all of the numbers pretty close to January’s.”

In last month’s S/D report, the USDA lowered 2025/26 soybean exports to 42.86 million tonnes from 44.50 million in December. However, that’s still down significantly from 2024/25 exports of 51.22 million tonnes.

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March soybeans rose 10.5 U.S. cents per bushel over the past week at US$10.75, while March corn gained 8.25 cents at US$4.30/bu. March Chicago wheat surged 28.25 cents to close at US$5.36/bu., its Kansas City hard red wheat counterpart added 22.25 cents at US$5.4225/bu. and March Minneapolis spring wheat was up 10.25 cents at US$5.74/bu.

Jack Scoville of The Price Futures Group in Chicago said cold temperatures ahead of the storm’s arrival may have damaged crops in winter wheat-growing areas, putting a weather premium on prices.

“(Winterkill) was probably the biggest impact,” Scoville said, adding that lower winter wheat prices earlier this month were setting up for a rally eventually.

U.S. President Donald Trump recently threatened a number of countries, including Iran, Greenland and Canada, reducing confidence in the U.S. dollar. As a result, the currency weakened against its international counterparts. However, a lower dollar means cheaper exports and increased buying interest.

For the week ended Jan. 15, U.S. soybean and corn export sales reached marketing-year highs of 2.45 million tonnes and 4.01 million, respectively, said the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Wheat export sales exceeded trade expectations for the week at 618,100 tonnes.

“Both those numbers are very high. They did support commercial demand and they are supporting commercial demand now,” Scoville said. “If the U.S. dollar stays weak, I imagine (export) sales will be stronger.”

He anticipated prices to become stronger in the next week and beyond. The March soybean contract could surpass the US$11/bu. level just in time before the South American soybean harvest enters the markets. The March corn contract could move up to US$4.45/bu, Scoville added.

“(March Chicago) wheat could move back to (November 2025) highs, US$5.60 to US$5.65/bu. Prices would be up across the board,” he said.

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Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade moved off nearby lows during the week ended Jan. 21, as solid export sales and talk of movement on biofuel blending requirements in the United States provided support. However, the advancing South American harvest may limit further gains.

• March soybeans gained roughly 25 cents per bushel over the past week, closing above its 20-day moving average for the first time since late November. The next upside target from a technical standpoint is seen at US$10.70 per bushel and then again at US$11.00.

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Davos, Switzerland, at the World Economic Forum. China recently reached its commitment of buying 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans, and confirmation of more business could help pull the futures higher.

• However, Brazil’s soybean harvest is in its early stages, with reports out of the country pointing to a possibly record-large crop. The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently estimated Brazilian soybean production at 178 million tonnes, while some private estimates have topped 180 million. • The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will soon release its final rule for blending requirements for 2026 and 2027. Proposals for renewable/biodiesel blending quotas are expected to be close to what was initially proposed by the EPA in June, including 5.6 billion gallons of bio-based diesel. would be close to EPA s initial proposal in June.

Corn

Corn futures have shown some modest strength over the past week, consolidating after the sharp selloff following the bearish production and stocks estimates from the USDA released Jan. 12.

• March corn appears to have uncovered support around US$4.20 per bushel but remains 10 to 20 cents below its major moving averages — settling at US$4.2175 on Jan. 21.

• Geopolitical uncertainty may keep some caution in the corn market in the near term, with movements in crude oil and the U.S. dollar likely to provide direction.

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