In its first projections for the 2026 harvest, MARS also forecast the EU’s average rapeseed yield at 3.22 t/ha, down three per cent from last year, while for winter barley it put the EU 2026 yield at 5.13 t/ha, ten per cent lower than last year.

Soft wheat is the EU’s most‑produced cereal and rapeseed its main oilseed. Other forecasters also expect lower wheat and rapeseed yields in the EU this year after bumper crops last summer.

Winter crops across Europe were gradually restarting vegetative growth in generally favourable conditions, supported by adequate soil moisture and mild late-winter temperatures, MARS said in a report.

Excessive rainfall in parts of south-western and eastern Europe caused temporary waterlogging and local flooding, while severe February frost episodes may have caused local damage in parts of Poland, Ukraine and the Baltic states, it said.

Emerging precipitation deficits in north‑eastern Europe required monitoring as crops’ water needs will be increasing soon, it added.

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In a monthly report, the consultancy put EU soft wheat exports at 27.1 million metric tons, down from 27.6 million last month – which would still exceed the 2024/25 low level, when a poor harvest hampered French shipments.

“To reflect the immediate impact of the war in the Middle East, we are initially revising down our forecasts for European wheat and barley exports to countries in the region,” it said in the report.

The consultancy’s cuts in EU export forecasts to the region were for 250,000 tons of soft wheat and 100,000 tons of barley, Benoit Fayaud, senior grain analyst at Expana, said separately.

At a global level, it revised soft wheat imports to the Middle East in 2025/26 by 1.6 million tons, corn imports by 1.7 million tons and barley imports by 500,000 tons.

Trade flows during the first part of the campaign were very dynamic and two months of slowdown would ultimately have only a moderate impact on overall volumes for the current marketing year, Expana said in its report.

“If the conflict were to last longer, or if, for example, energy prices were to remain permanently higher, and consequently cereal prices would follow, then we would be forced to further reduce our demand estimate, not only in the Middle East, but also globally,” Fayaud said.

For 2026/27, the consultancy raised its forecast for the bloc’s soft wheat crop to 128.6 million tons, up from 128.3 million last month, and increased its barley outlook to 52.3 million tons from 52.2 million last month.

By contrast, Expana cut its 2026 maize production forecast in the bloc to 57.9 million tons, down from 58.3 million last month, citing a downward revision for France.

— Reporting by Sybille de La Hamaide

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For winter soft wheat, France’s main cereal crop, the ministry now expects the 2026 area to reach 4.59 million hectares (11.3 million acres), up slightly from its initial projection of 4.56 million in December, it said on Tuesday.

The revised estimate was up 2.8 per cent from the area harvested in 2025, though 0.3 per cent below the average of the past five years, the ministry said in a report.

For winter rapeseed, the country’s largest oilseed crop, it raised its estimate for this year’s area to 1.37 million hectares (3.39 million acres) from 1.34 million projected in December.

That was now eight per cent above the 2025 area and 11.6 per cent above the five-year average.

Analysts have anticipated an increase in rapeseed planting in France and across Europe given more favourable prices than for cereals, as well as strong yields in last summer’s harvest.

Favourable autumn weather had also raised expectations that the soft wheat area would hold steady, despite falling prices.

Among other winter crops, the ministry pegged the 2026 winter barley area at 1.26 million hectares (3.11 million acres), compared to 1.23 million previously and up 5.3 per cent on the year.

For winter durum wheat, however, the estimated 2026 area was reduced slightly, to 196,000 hectares (484,327 acres) from 199,000 forecast in December. That left the projected area marginally below last year’s level and nearly 16 per cent below the five-year average.

Wheat and rapeseed are almost entirely sown as winter crops in France, whereas barley production includes a significant portion of spring-grown crop.

Winter crops were generally in good condition so far, the ministry added.

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The rush of demand for European feed barley has provided relief for producers struggling with low prices in a heavily supplied global grain market.

Reversing the usual price structure, feed barley is attracting better prices than milling wheat and similar rates to malting barley, used for beer ingredient malt.

“It’s a strange place for the market,” said Brent Atthill, head of consultancy RMI Analytics, citing a “perfect storm” of strong feed demand in the Middle East and China, limited availability of Black Sea barley and weak brewing demand in Europe.

The European Commission increased its monthly forecast of EU barley exports in 2025/26 by nine per cent last week to 11 million metric tons, which would be the highest since 2015/16.

In France, early-season shipments to China have been followed by steady demand from North Africa and the Middle East. Loadings include a rare cargo for Turkey, LSEG data shows.

Feed barley likely to revert to cheaper grain

Turkey’s switch this season from barley exporter to importer has contributed to market tensions. The country is due to hold an import tender next Wednesday.

An import purchase by Algeria this week could also yield more EU sales, with German and Polish supplies seen in contention, a German trader said. Algeria has not bought French grain since 2024 because of diplomatic tensions.

German barley shipments so far this year include about 30,000 tons for Algeria, 60,000 tons for Saudi Arabia and 8,000 tons for Iraq, another trader said.

“Both Germany and France have made large export shipments of barley so far this year and I expect more to be on the way,” the second trader said.

The export window for western European barley could soon close, however. Supplies in France are tightening while crops from southern hemisphere harvests boost options for importers.

Forward prices for the 2026 harvest suggest feed barley will revert to its role as a cheaper grain, with double-digit discounts compared with malting barley and milling wheat, traders and analysts added.

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“As Canada looks to diversify trade and strengthen economic resilience, agriculture must be part of the solution,” said Erin Gowriluk, Canada Grains Council president in a Jan. 26 news release.

“Science-based, risk-based regulation is essential to maintaining market access and ensuring Canadian farmers can continue to innovate.”

WHY IT MATTERS: As Canada looks to diversify agricultural trade away from the United States, non-tariff barriers may hamper progress the Canada Grains Council says.

The council also recommended the Government of Canada use bilateral trade mechanisms to oppose the European Union’s strict pesticide regulations.

In the report, the council said Canada’s trading situation is shifting drastically since the United States is no longer a reliable trading partner. However, regulatory differences could make it harder for Canada to build its trading relationships.

This include trades rules from other countries that are not based on objective science, and do not follow internationally accepted risk assessments, the council said.

Non-tariff trade barriers are some of the most restrictive barriers for agricultural innovation, and they are increasing according to the report. Standards related to the regulation of agricultural innovations, e.g. crop protection products, put Canadian trade at risk.

For example, under the Canadian-European Union Comprehensive Trade Agreement (CETA), most tariffs were removed from Canadian agricultural imports. However, many countries in the EU have non-tariff trade barriers, which made trading more difficult for Canada.

The EU has taken a precautionary approach to agriculture innovations like crop protection products. Over the past 10 years, the EU has removed about half of the crop protection tools available to its own farmers. Because of this, the EU is under pressure to block farming imports using farming tools that are no longer allowed in Europe, even when those products have been proven safe.

Depending on how the EU implements so-called “reciprocity” rules, Canadian grain exports could be restricted or halted. Canadian trade could also be negatively affected as many countries around the world are influenced by EU trade policies.

The council said Canada should lead a coalition of like-minded countries to aim for systemic improvements in setting maximum residue levels. It should also work to prevent regulatory overreach for agricultural innovation in other countries.

Since Canada is engaged with trade at multiple levels, the country will be able to make the most of bilateral mechanisms within CETA to address the EU’s inclination to turn away from agricultural innovations.

Canada and its other trading partners can take on a strong objective to prevent non-tariff trade barriers, using diplomacy and scientific information, the council added.

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In a supply and demand outlook, the office increased its forecast of French soft wheat shipments within the EU in 2025/26 to 7.51 million tons from 7.39 million previously and 6.8 million tons last season.

The office mainly raised projected sales to Germany, Ireland, Spain and the Netherlands, FranceAgriMer grain analyst Habasse Diagouraga told reporters.

He did not have details for changes in forecast exports outside the EU but said sales to Morocco were still supporting French wheat exports.

“However, we expect these to slow down there since we already saw first shipments of Argentine wheat,” Diagouraga said.

Argentina is forecast to harvest a record wheat crop that has created extra competition for the Moroccan market.

FranceAgriMer raised its outlook for soft wheat stocks at the end of 2025/26 to 2.80 million tons from 2.74 million. This is 12.7 per cent above last season’s volume.

For barley, FranceAgriMer pegged 2025/26 ending stocks at 1.55 million tons versus 1.46 million projected last month, 34.3 per cent above last season.

After large shipments to China in the summer, France continues to export big volumes of barley to Saudi Arabia, Diagouraga said.

The 2025/26 maize ending stocks are expected at 2.16 million tons, up from 1.86 million forecast last month but 1.4 per cent below last season.

— Reporting by Sybille de La Hamaide

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The trade alliance between the EU and South America’s Mercosur, comprising Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay, will substantially boost trade ties in a region that saw commerce with China soar in recent decades while U.S. influence plummeted.

But even as U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration seeks wider regional fealty, South American governments from Brazil to Peru are unlikely to relinquish strengthening ties to China or Europe at a time when they have eclipsed the U.S. in trade in most of the region.

Venezuela raid may have sealed the deal

If anything, several analysts said, Trump’s efforts to flex American power in the region may have helped push past the finish line a trade agreement that suffered numerous delays over two decades of negotiations.

“If credit for this deal goes to anyone, it is to the international context,” said Ignacio Bartesaghi, a foreign policy adviser who has worked with numerous Uruguayan governments over the years. “It goes to Trump’s tariff war, the conflict in Ukraine, to what happened in Venezuela recently.”

Trump’s commando raid to seize Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, which set the stage for a more amenable successor government, was the latest of several moves by the U.S. president to sway regional governments.

Last year, Trump threatened to cut off U.S. financial support to Honduras if a conservative candidate did not win the presidential election and conditioned billions of dollars in loans to Argentina on conservatives triumphing in the country’s midterms.

He also used steep tariffs on Brazilian goods to try forcing the country to stop the prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a staunch Trump ally.

Voters backed Trump’s choice in both elections. But Bolsonaro was later convicted, and the U.S. government dropped most of the new tariffs against Brazilian products soon after.

“The return of America’s pre-eminence in the Western Hemisphere, led by President Trump, is undisputed,” Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, said in a statement. “All of the President’s foreign policy actions have restored American strength after four years of weakness under Joe Biden.”

More deals to come

Trump has repeatedly bashed multilateralism and refused to abide by international rules, withdrawing the U.S. from several global pacts and even telling The New York Times last week that he did not need “international law.”

Few countries in Latin America seem to agree.

While Argentine President Javier Milei, one of Trump’s closest allies in the region, praised the U.S.-backed capture of Maduro, his Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno also celebrated the deal with the EU as a victory for “clear rules and freedom.”

Venezuela was a full Mercosur member until its suspension in 2016 for failing to meet trade and human rights commitments.

One Brazilian official close to the presidency, who asked not to be named to discuss private deliberations, called the EU deal a “breath of fresh air” in “the most shameful and negatively critical week for multilateralism in decades.”

The agreement signed this month may also push Mercosur to conclude other trade agreements with Canada and the United Arab Emirates, said Welber Barral, a former Brazilian trade secretary.

“Countries are seeking to create regional rules that can be obeyed, so they won’t depend on the World Trade Organization, which is being discredited by Trump,” Barral said.

The EU-Mercosur deal is just one more example of several being negotiated and signed by countries that were hit with steep tariffs by the Trump administration, such as Indonesia’s trade accord with the European bloc and a pledge between Japan, South Korea and China to increase regional trade.

The deal between Europe and South America shows that many countries want to reinforce global norms, said Margaret Myers, director of the Asia & Latin America Program at the Inter-American Dialogue.

“At a time when the U.S. is breaking from the status quo, parts of Latin America appear to be upholding it,” she said. “It’s a wake-up call for the U.S.”

— Additional reporting By Luciana Magalhaes in Sao Paulo and Ricardo Brito in Brasilia

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With U.S. President Donald Trump determined to shake up global trade, the European Commission and countries such as Germany and Spain argue the deal will help offset business lost from U.S. tariffs, and reduce reliance on China by securing access to critical minerals.

Opponents led by France, the European Union’s largest agricultural producer, say the agreement will jack up imports of cheap food products, including beef, poultry and sugar, undercutting domestic farmers.

Farmers march, block highways

Farmers have launched protests across the EU, blocking French and Belgian highways and marching in Poland on Friday.

France voted against the deal – but at least 15 countries representing 65 per cent of the bloc’s total population voted in favour, enough for approval, EU sources and diplomats said.

An EU diplomat and Poland’s agriculture minister said that 21 countries supported the agreement, with Austria, France, Hungary, Ireland and Poland against and Belgium abstaining.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz hailed Friday’s vote as a “milestone” and said the deal would be good for Germany and for Europe.

“But 25 years of negotiations is too long. It’s vital that the next free trade agreements are concluded swiftly,” he said in a statement.

EU capitals have been given until 5 p.m. Brussels time to provide written confirmation of their votes.

This would clear the way for Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to sign the agreement with Mercosur partners – Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay – in Asuncion, possibly next week.

The European Commission concluded negotiationson the deal a year ago. The European Parliament will also need to approve the accord before it can enter force.

France says battle isn’t over

The free trade agreement would be the European Union’s biggest in terms of tariff reduction, removing 4 billion euros (C$6.5 billion) of duties on its exports. The Mercosur countries have high tariffs, such as 35 per cent on car parts, 28 per cent on dairy products and 27 per cent on wines.

The EU and Mercosur will hope to expand evenly split goods trade worth 111 billion euros in 2024. EU exports are dominated by machinery, chemicals and transport equipment, and Mercosur’s are focused on agricultural products, minerals, pulp and paper.

To win over deal sceptics, the European Commission has put in place safeguards that can suspend imports of sensitive farm produce. It has strengthened import controls, notably regarding pesticide residues, established a crisis fund, accelerated support for farmers, and has pledged to cut import duties on fertilisers.

The concessions were not enough to win over Poland or France, but Italy shifted from a ‘no’ in December to a ‘yes’ on Friday.

French opposition parties look to topple government

“It seems to me the balance that has been found is sustainable,” Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told a press conference.

Mathilde Panot, lower house chief of the far-left France Unbowed party, said on X that France had been “humiliated” by Brussels and on the world stage.

French far-right and far-left parties are set to launch no-confidence motions in the government over the likely approval.

French Agriculture Minister Annie Genevard has said the battle is not over and has pledged to fight for a rejection by the EU assembly, where the vote could be tight. European environmental groups also oppose the accord, saying commodities shipped to Europe will often come from deforested land.

“The simple truth is that this unpopular deal is a disaster for the Amazon rainforest and no progressive MEP that is committed to forest protection should ever support it,” Greenpeace EU campaigner Lis Cunha said.

German Social Democrat Bernd Lange, the chair of parliament’s trade committee, expressed confidence that the deal would be passed, with a final vote most likely in April or May.

— Additional reporting by Charlotte Van Campenhout, Kuba Stezycki and Alan Charlish, Giselda Vagnoni

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Italy and France last month dashed hopes for a December deal, saying they were not ready to support it until farmer fears of an influx of cheap commodities from Mercosur, such as beef and sugar, were resolved.

All 27 EU agriculture ministers have been invited to the meeting at the Commission, the EU presidency holder Cyprus said on Tuesday, although it was not clear yet how many would attend.

Farmers looking for reassurances

European commissioners for agriculture, trade and health are expected to give reassurances over future funding for farmers under the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy, including a 6.3 billion euro (C$10.2 billion) crisis fund in the next EU budget.

The Commission’s move to merge regional cohesion funds and CAP money in the next seven-year budget alarmed farming nations.

In a letter to Cyprus’s president and the head of the European Parliament on Tuesday, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed accelerating 45 billion euros of support to farmers and reiterated that the 2028-2034 budget would guarantee them 293.7 billion euros.

The Commission will also review import controls, including permissible maximum levels of pesticide residues, two EU diplomats said.

“It is a critical moment to discuss demands from farmers,” one of the diplomats said.

Wooing EU members for support

The EU executive, supported by EU-Mercosur proponents such as Germany and Spain, is seeking to garner the broad majority of 15 EU members representing 65 per cent of the EU population required to authorize the EU signature, possibly as early as January 12.

They say the accord, which has been 25 years in the making and would be the EU’s largest in terms of tariff reductions, is vital to boosting exports hit by U.S. import taxes and to reduce reliance on China by securing access to critical minerals.

With Poland and Hungary opposed to the deal and France critical, the position of Italy will be a key determinant of whether the deal can be signed. A vote is expected on Friday.

The Commission had held discussions with member states over the past two weeks and the bloc was on track to sign the agreement soon, a spokesperson for the executive said.

Italy is not opposed to the deal, two Italian sources told Reuters on Tuesday, but wanted assurances – notably on reciprocity – so that imported farm products meet EU health and environmental standards. These were due to be discussed on Wednesday.

A second EU diplomat said Italy was not yet fully on board.

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The vote took place amid a long-running European debate over the designation of plant-based alternatives to animal protein and the associated “linguistic gymnastics”.

A previous proposal to prohibit comparisons between dairy and plant-based foods was rejected. But the EU did decide to reserve the term “dairy” for products derived from animal milk. As a result, companies must now refer to their products as “almond drink” or “plant-based slices”, for example.

In the case of meat, the labelling propositions are part of a broader set of amendments to EU agricultural and food market regulations. These are supposed to strengthen the position of farmers in the food supply chain.

Farmers in Europe have long expressed concerns that plant-based substitutes could threaten traditional farming practices.

But what about the role of the consumer in debates over how meat and its plant-based substitutes should be labelled?

Plant-based food makers fear rebranding

Before the vote, MEPs had discussed a perceived lack of transparency for consumers. It was suggested that terms such as “veggie burger” or “tofu steak” obscure the distinction between meat and plant-based or lab-grown alternatives. These ambiguities, it was argued, could confuse or mislead consumers.

While member states must still negotiate the amendments detailing the labelling changes, the consequences could be significant. Some retailers, like supermarket chain Lidl, are working to increase sales of plant-based foods. This aligns with what the science says about sustainable diets.

After initial growth in the market for plant-based alternatives, sales have plateaued. Many producers fear they may now also face additional costs associated with rebranding and relabelling their products.

In response, a coalition of food producers and retailers have argued that avoiding familiar terms like “steak” or “burger” could actually create more confusion among consumers.

But how misled are consumers really?

Despite concerns on both sides of the debate, our research shows a different reality – one in which many consumers are much more knowledgeable than they are made out to be.

Consumers savvy to ‘greenwashing’

We studied how people reacted to a marketing campaign by Swedish chicken producer Kronfågel. The campaign implied that climate action is the consumer’s responsibility, suggesting that shoppers should switch from beef to chicken to “do something simple for the climate”.

As part of the campaign, an emissions calculation underscored this shift, even leaving the impression it could offset air travel – based on just one meal. While the campaign drew from standardized carbon footprinting, the calculation left more questions than answers.

Through analysis of comments on social media and complaints to the Swedish consumer protection agency, we studied how people reacted to the campaign – rejecting it vehemently. They took issue for a range of reasons, including the corporation’s use of climate science and debates about what constitutes sustainable food consumption and what does not.

The various sources of disagreement illustrate the polarization over food consumption and production. Many people were critical of the suggestion to “offset” flying by eating chicken, while others questioned the appropriateness of a chicken producer, with suppliers in the agricultural sector, demonizing beef production.

The company responded by saying that its intention was to “help consumers navigate” the difficulties of lowering their consumption-related carbon footprint. It also said that it took consumer criticisms about the campaign being misleading to heart and would learn from them. We know of no investigation into the campaign, but we sense a shift towards softer messaging more broadly as companies’ fears of greenwashing accusations increase.

Research conclusions

Our research shows that many consumers are well informed about their choices, actively scrutinizing food products about their health effects, climate impact and production processes. And in debating the advantages and disadvantages of meat and plant-based alternatives, we found that they would openly disagree with each other.

These discussions reveal that there are many relevant perspectives and values involved in choosing the “best” diet – and consumption choices are deeply tied to identity, emotion and culture. In light of this complexity, our research serves as a warning for businesses and other organizations, including political parties, to approach climate messaging with care and to make sure their claims are credible.

So what then to make of the labelling debate? It is of course important to safeguard consumers from harmful or deceptive marketing. However, research has illustrated how powerful people and organizations may stereotype citizens. This may be, for instance, as “responsible”, “misled” or “duped” consumers – often the purpose is to serve their own commercial or political interests.

Politicians, food producers and retailers should be cautious about claims that consumers cannot differentiate meat from plant-based alternatives. Shoppers are often much more switched on than some in the EU debate suggest.

— Friederike Döbbe is an assistant professor in business and society at the University of Bath. Emilia Cederberg is an assistant professor in the department of accounting at the Stockholm School of Economics.

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