Haley said feed barley has risen over the last week by about C$10 at C$275 per tonne to Lethbridge for October-November-December delivery.

“When you get a little bit of demand with the lack of farmer selling, we move the market up,” he explained.

However, the recent increases might not push much higher, Haley speculated.

“I don’t know if it’s come to an end, but it just feels like it has settled down,” he commented.

Haley said feed wheat has also been priced at C$275/tonne, but there have been few seller at that level, so it could increase to C$285 delivered in southern Alberta.

“Producers are more focused on getting their crops off than marketing any grain right now,” he said, noting there’s an abundance of barley and wheat for feed this year.

Barley has been coming in at 43 to 46 pounds per bushel with some of it lighter than that, he said.

If barley is closer to 48 lbs./bu., Haley pointed out the buyers are not too keen on it, as it’s either more difficult to process or it takes longer to do so. That has meant corn becomes the alternative despite it being C$6 to C$8/bu. higher.

“It’s a consistent product with consistent supply,” he said.

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“We are seeing feed prices start to creep up. I think it’s because of the rail disruptions and stuff like that,” Leclerc commented. ”There definitely are some market opportunities to take advantage of right now.”

There was a brief period of chaos among Canada’s two largest railways after they locked out approximately 9,300 union members. In turn the union issued strike notices, but the Canada Industrial Relations Board imposed binding arbitration to resolve the labour dispute.

Leclerc said November-December pricing is 30 cents per bushel more than prices for September-October.

“Who knows what the markets will bring next week,” she pondered.

She quoted feed barley for September-October at C$4.80/bu. delivered in the Edmonton area, with that for November-December at C$5/bu.

As for feed wheat, Leclerc placed it at C$7 per bushel picked up in the yard in the Red Deer/Edmonton area, with number one wheat at C$7/bu. delivered.

“The feed wheat markets is a little more aggressive than the number one market,” she said.

When it came to the province’s grain harvest, Leclerc stated “We are seeing a lot of pockets of lightweight grain in Alberta. The monster crop everyone was anticipating seems to be very patchy.”

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At 12:01 a.m. on Aug. 22, both railways failed to reach an agreement with more than 9,300 workers represented by the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference. For the first time ever, traffic at both CN Rail and CPKC is halted simultaneously.

Jared Seitz, general manager of Giddyupp Grain Brokers in Spruce Grove, Alta., said sales opportunities which would normally present themselves at this time of year have been put on hold. The rail shutdown will likely drag down feed grain prices on top of harvest pressure.

“You would expect prices to be spiking, but the market just pauses for now and a lot of things will hold flat,” Seitz said. “It feels like we’re nearing the bottom and the rail strike isn’t helping anything at the moment.”

He added that even if the work stoppage only lasts one or two days, more grain buyers will rely on the cash market.
“I think everyone thinks this will be a short-term thing and that’s the expectation. But the long-term effect surely will add to everything getting more expensive,” Seitz explained. “The buyers are hesitant to do anything. Sellers are hesitant. It’s creating a strange market dynamic I haven’t seen in quite some time.

“What we’re suggesting farmers do is try to deal with their lowest quality crops first, because there does seem to be a lot of light grain … We are seeing some feedlots that are extending their discount schedule so it includes lighter grain, but we’re hearing barley at (a test weight of) 38 to 42 pounds across a large swath of Alberta. So it’s going to take some big changes from everyone who has their machinery set up for 48 lb. barley to handle all of that.”

Delivered feed barley prices in Alberta as of Aug. 21 ranged from C$4.07 to C$5.70 per bushel, with the latter down seven cents from the previous week, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. In Saskatchewan, the range was C$4.14 to C$4.50/bu., down 25 cents, while in Manitoba, prices were steady at C$4.34 to C$4.50/bu.

For feed wheat, delivered prices in Alberta were from C$5.81 to C$7.76/bu. with the high price down 24 cents from the week before. In Saskatchewan, a price of C$6.75/bu. was reported, steady from the previous week, while C$6.29/bu. was reported in Manitoba, down 13 cents.

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[Feed wheat] has been so expensive for so long,” Haley commented, noting buyers wanting to acquire larger amounts are few and far in between.

“If they can’t get any volume, they’re not messing with it,” he added.

Haley said those who have been purchasing feed wheat have been some feed mills and a few pork producers, and not the cattle feeders.

He cited feed wheat prices of C$265 to C$270 per tonne delivered to Lethbridge on Aug. 13.

“Until there’s an offer of any magnitude of tonnage…you’re not going to see a lot of demand,” Haley said.

Feed barley prices also slipped back over the last week as well, he noted, pointing out that it needs to remain C$10 to $15/tonne cheaper than corn.

Haley said feed barley for delivery next month was C$255/tonne, down C$10 from the previous week. That for January-February-March delivery was going for C$275/tonne, easing back C$5 from last week.

“The barley market might weaken up a little bit more in September and stay that way to stay in in the ration,” Haley cautioned.

The main reason being that it’s relatively easy to import corn from the United States. Also, projections have called for a large U.S. corn crop this year, with good supplies available.

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New crop barley is starting to become available, although end users were not showing much interest in the newly harvested supplies, according to Travis Ebens of CorNine Commodities in Lacombe, Alta. He expected values would remain under pressure through the harvest period.

Recent heat and dryness contributed to the early development, with anecdotal reports pointing to ok yields but lighter bushel weights, according to Ebens.

In addition to the seasonal harvest pressure, ongoing weakness in the United States corn market was another bearish influence on North American feed markets. December corn settled below US$4.00 per bushel on Aug. 8, with values at their weakest levels since 2020.

Feed barley bids in southern Alberta are also at their lowest levels in four years, according to government data, with barley trading into Lethbridge at about C$265 to C$266 per tonne in the latest provincial report.

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Glen Loyns, trader and general manager for JGL Commodities in Moose Jaw, Sask., said while the recent heat and dryness has reduced yield expectations, prospects of a decent harvest are still putting pressure on prices.

“It appears that there’s probably going to be an average crop. So that’s putting pressure on some prices. Especially in the United States where you’re seeing pretty favourable growing conditions for both corn and beans,” Loyns said.

However, the warmer and drier-than-normal conditions are now starting to have a real effect on crops.

“The heat is affecting it and it’s running out of moisture. It’s going to be not as good as everyone was expecting a month ago,” Loyns added.

Despite lower corn and wheat prices in the U.S., there isn’t much in the way of grain shipments into Saskatchewan according to Loyns. He added that the feed grain market will wait and see before prices make their move.

“It’s going to be volatile until we get a very good picture of the quality and quantity (of feed grains),” Loyns said.

Delivered feed barley prices in Saskatchewan ranged from C$4.30 to C$4.75 per bushel as of July 31, with the latter steady from last week, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. In Alberta, prices ranged from C$4.15 to C$5.88/bu., down 11 cents from the week before. In Manitoba, prices were C$4.50 to C$4.51/bu., down one cent from the previous week.

For delivered feed wheat, the price range in Saskatchewan was C$6.60 to C$7.75/bu., while in Alberta, prices were from C$6.49 to C$8.16/bu. The maximum prices from both provinces were unchanged from the previous week. In Manitoba, feed wheat was at C$6.79/bu., up two cents.

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Matt Beusekom, trader for Market Place Commodities in Lethbridge, Alta., said while the heat is pressuring crops, good harvests are still expected for now.

“(The heat) has definitely had an effect to a certain degree,” Beusekom said. “Yield is perhaps not what it could’ve been, but that being said, I think we’re still in relatively good condition. It will be above average in most areas.”

He added that pulse crops are handling the warmer conditions better than others, but canola is very susceptible.

Beusekom said grain deliveries to feedlots have been “very steady” so far this summer, as more barley makes its way into feed rations.

“I think we’re seeing a little uptick in barley as the corn supply peters out here,” he added.

Feed grain prices continue to decline, but some growers are hanging onto their product in anticipation of higher prices.

“Producers are perhaps slightly nervous and are not selling quite as quickly or easily,” Beusekom said. “I think we’re in a bit of a sideways market for now.”

Delivered feed barley prices in Alberta ranged from C$4.20 to C$5.99 per bushel, down 11 cents from the week before, on July 24 according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. In Saskatchewan, prices were down 25 cents from one week earlier, ranging from C$4.30 to C$4.75. In Manitoba, feed barley was priced from C$4.50 to C$4.52, down 13 cents from last week.

For feed wheat, Alberta prices were from C$6.50 to C$8.16/bu., down 35 cents from one week ago. In Saskatchewan, prices were steady, ranging from C$6.60 to C$7.75. In Manitoba, a price of C$6.77 was reported, down one cent from the previous week.

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“Prices have been dropping… almost daily,” said Larry Green, of Giddyupp Grain Brokers in Alberta. He noted that farmers with unpriced grain still in their bin were “stuck between a rock and a hard place,” with some likely now forced to sell at lower prices to make room for the looming new crop harvest.

“It’s just a steady downward trend, and I don’t see any end in sight for at least the next month,” said Green. However, at that time, seasonal harvest pressure will likely limit any upside potential.

While any production issues through the growing season could support prices, that would come at the expense of reduced yields and lower returns overall. Total Canadian barley area was down 13 per cent on the year, at 6.4 million acres, according to Statistics Canada.

While the market may be trending lower, Green noted that the best prices of the 2023/24 marketing year came at harvest time. He added that there had been good new crop pricing opportunities a few months ago, but those were all gone for the time being.

Looking at the developing crops, while there are some areas of concern, the overall outlook is positive for the time being. Green said moisture will be critical through July, with temperatures turning hotter.

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“Everything is dropping. You’ve got big crops across the board all through Western Canada. Plenty of rain with some areas with slightly too much rain,” commented Glen Loyns of JGL Commodities in Moose Jaw.

“There’s going to be a lot of grain,” he stated.

That’s coming despite less barley being planted in Canada this year. Statistics Canada issued its planted acre estimates on June 27, showing the country’s barley area at just under 6.39 million acres compared to the 7.32 million seeded last year.

Although Loyns is optimistic, he cautioned that it’s still early to be sure as to how good the crop could be, and a lot could happen between now and harvest.

“If we keep going at this rate, your yields are going to offset the shortfall we have in seeded acreage,” he said, noting should that big crop materialize, that could result in a lot less corn being imported from the United States.

“Unless the corn yields in the U.S. fall so much and the price falls, it’s going to be a competitive ingredient into this market. Right now, it looks like probably not,” Loyns explained that at this point, the U.S. is in line for its own large corn harvest.

Feed barley prices were down in the Prairie provinces, with Saskatchewan incurring the largest decline at 25 cents per bushel. Prices ranged from C$4.77 to C$5.50/bushel according to Prairie Ag Hotwire.

Prices in Alberta stepped back 11 cents at C$4.59 to C$6.21/bu. while in Manitoba those dipped three cents at C$4.95 to C$5.00.

Feed wheat prices fell further, with Alberta seeing a 54-cent drop at C$6.60 to C$8.84/bu. In Saskatchewan prices lost 25 cents at C$6.60 to C$8.25 and in Manitoba they were down eight cents at C$7.41.

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Susanne Leclerc, owner of Market Master Ltd. in Edmonton, said moisture levels in Alberta are not distributed evenly with the north seeing plenty of rain and the south becoming drier. A recent cold snap between Calgary and Edmonton plunged lows to around the freezing mark earlier this week, while snow fell over parts of the Foothills.

“You have some areas that have ideal growing conditions, but they don’t have the heat. (Crops) are growing slower than usual at this time of year,” Leclerc added. “There was some frost reported in Alberta and Saskatchewan this week, which is crazy for the middle of June. So it will be interesting to see how everyone survives this cold snap.”

Despite the weather scare, most crops are still expected to be good to excellent. As a result, some prices are declining.

“Barley has come down about 30 cents per bushel over the past two weeks, just based on the fact that everyone’s seeing a crop coming and grazing conditions are better,” Leclerc said. “Feed wheat has dropped off about the same and more in some cases, depending on what you can find.”

She added that while it’s unsure of the grain bought by feedlots, there are still plenty of deliveries coming in. With Eastern Canada in a heat wave with temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius and Western Canada is an ongoing cooler weather pattern, Leclerc said it’s anyone’s guess how the market will react.

“I think it’s a wait-and-see game on this one,” she said.

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