Fertilizer shortages may lead to lower grain output through delayed or suboptimal nitrogen application and encourage farmers to plant less fertilizer-intensive crops such as soybeans, the report noted.

In the U.S., where farmers import up to 50 per cent of urea fertilizer in some years, spring planting could face challenges as supplies remain around 25 per cent below typical levels, according to The Fertilizer Institute.

WHY IT MATTERS: Nitrogen fertilizer prices have risen around 40 per cent since the onset of the conflict in the Middle East, intensifying financial pressure on farmers

Nitrogen fertilizer, which accounts for roughly 20 per cent of grain production costs, has seen prices rise 40 per cent since the onset of the conflict, Goldman said. A quarter of global nitrogen trade and about 20 per cent of LNG shipments — key for nitrogen production — transit the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively blocked since the war in Iran started.

Supply disruptions could tighten availability and increase production costs elsewhere, the bank warned.

“Spare fertilizer production capacity outside the Middle East appears limited,” Goldman added, citing production constraints in Russia, which typically accounts for around 15 per cent of global nitrogen fertilizer exports due to facility attacks and export limits, as well as China’s likely extension of fertilizer export restrictions beyond August.

While U.S. farmers remain relatively insulated for now due to advanced procurement ahead of planting season, disruptions in Europe, Australia and the Southern Hemisphere could bolster demand for U.S. grain exports and raise U.S. grain prices, the bank said.

However, delays to March fertilizer shipments might affect April availability, compounded by the lack of U.S. strategic reserves or quick domestic production scalability.

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Russia, a major fertilizer exporter, lacks the capacity to boost production this year amid a global supply crunch caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 24 per cent of global trade in ammonia, an ingredient of ammonium nitrate, passes.

WHY IT MATTERS: Russia controls up to 40 per cent of the global trade in ammonium nitrate. While Canada’s imports of Russian nitrogen fertilizer halted due to economic sanctions, at least one agriculture group has argued the federal government should lift tariffs in order to ease strain on Canadian farmers.

The Agriculture Ministry said it had stopped all issued licenses for ammonium nitrate exports and will not issue new ones, with the exception of those pertaining to government contracts. Russia produces a quarter of the world’s ammonium nitrate.

“In the context of growing export demand for nitrogen fertilizers, the suspension of their supply abroad will allow the needs of the domestic market to be prioritized during the spring fieldwork season,” the ministry said.

Start of planting season

Ammonium nitrate is extensively used in agriculture at the start of the planting season. Russia has had export caps in place since 2021, while producers have been asked by the government to prioritize supplies to the domestic market over exports.

Russia exports ammonium nitrate to Brazil, India, Peru, Mongolia, Morocco, and Mozambique. It also exported a small quantity of ammonium nitrate to the U.S. in 2024.

Eurochem, Acron and Uralchem are Russia’s leading producers of ammonium nitrate.

Ukrainian drones in February hit the Dorogobuzh plant in Western Russia, Acron’s leading production asset, which makes about 11 per cent of Russia’s ammonium nitrate. The plant is not expected to be fully operational before May.

Ammonium nitrate is also used in the production of explosives.

— Reporting by Gleb Bryanski, Olga Popova and Anastasia Lyrchikova

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China is among the largest fertilizer exporters – shipping more than $13 billion (C$17.8 billion) worth of it last year – and it has a history of controlling exports to keep prices low for farmers.

Shipments through the war-blocked Strait of Hormuz account for roughly one-third of the sea-borne supply. In mid-March, Beijing banned exports of nitrogen-potassium fertilizer blends and certain phosphate varieties, sources told Reuters.

WHY IT MATTERS: International urea prices have risen by around 40 per cent from pre-war levels as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz blocks roughly one third of the supply and contributes to higher production costs.

The ban, which has not been formally unveiled, was reported earlier this week by Bloomberg News.

Added to existing bans and export quotas for urea, only a handful of fertilizers – notably ammonium sulphate – can be exported, five sources said. That would mean between half and three quarters of China’s exports last year are restricted, potentially up to 40 million metric tons, according to a Reuters estimate.

“This pattern is consistent: China restricts supplies rather than coming to the rescue during global tightness,” said Matthew Biggin, a senior commodities analyst at BMI.

“The export restrictions exist because of their tight domestic balance – they’re prioritising food security and insulating their domestic market from price shocks.”

Beijing’s curbs, like its move last week to ban refined fuel exports, come as governments limit exports of products whose inputs have been threatened by disruption from the war, worsening shortages and higher prices around the world.

International urea prices have risen by around 40 per cent from pre-war levels. In China, urea futures are near a 10-month high.

Dependent on China

Last year, China sent Brazil, Indonesia and Thailand roughly a fifth of their fertilizer imports and that figure stood at a third for Malaysia and New Zealand, according to International Trade Centre data. For India, it was around 16 per cent, according to its trade data.

Between half and 80 per cent of those exports are now restricted, according to a Reuters analysis of Chinese customs data.

“Buyers were hoping China would step in and fill the supply gap, but this decision will only tighten supplies further,” a New Delhi-based fertilizer company official said, in reference to the recent restrictions.

The company official declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

India, which imported more than 40 per cent of its urea, a nitrogen-based fertilizer, and DAP, a blend, from the Middle East last year, has requested China issue export quotas for urea.

When will exports resume?

The Philippines on Wednesday said China had assured it that fertilizer exports would not be restricted.

Asked about the comments a day later, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson referred the question to other departments.

China’s General Administration of Customs, National Development and Reform Commission and Ministry of Commerce did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

At a fertilizer conference in Shanghai attended by Reuters on Wednesday, five salespeople said they did not expect the fertilizer bans to be lifted before August, after China’s peak June-to-August export period.

Producers are watching for signals from the government after spring planting to see whether bans would be extended.

In December, the state-linked fertilizer association urged major producers to suspend exports of phosphate fertilizers until August.

“Most folks who follow this very, very closely are expecting them to continue to extend the export bans,” said Caitlin Welsh, a director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“China is so reluctant to do anything that would increase the price of grains, especially animal feed, domestically.”

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Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne made the announcement March 17.

“Agriculture is without a doubt one of the most important and investable sectors in our economy,” said federal Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald in a news release.

“The pace of technological advancement we’ve seen across the industry in recent years has been impressive, and investments like this will continue to accelerate innovation.”

The federal cash is part of an $50 million equity commitment alongside Idealist Capital to support the next phase of Solugen’s growth and commercial expansion.

Solugen produces and commercializes Azogen, a fast-release liquid ammoniacal nitrogen fertilizer derived from hog manure.

The investment will allow Solugen to expand capacity at its existing plant in St-Patrice-de-Beaurivage, Que. and construct a second facility in the province.

Solugen was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Lévis, Que. Its Azogen is produced through a fully circular process. By converting manure into high-performance fertilizer, it reduces greenhouse gas emissions associated with conventional fertilizers, the news release said.

The funding comes through the Canada Growth Fund, a $15 billion, arm’s length public investment vehicle launched by the federal government to attract private capital and invest in Canadian projects and businesses.

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Some 20 per cent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas also transits the Strait, and its near closure, combined with missile and drone strikes across the Gulf, have forced regional energy facilities to halt output.

That has, in turn, shut fertilizer plants in the Gulf and beyond, just as farmers across the Northern Hemisphere prepare for spring planting, leaving little margin for delays.

The global market for urea was already struggling with tight supplies prior to the current conflict, with Europe forced to cut output due to the loss of cheap Russian gas and China restricting fertilizer exports, including urea, in order to ensure domestic supplies.

Which fertilizer plants have halted or cut output?

Qatar Energy has halted output at the world’s largest urea plant after shutting down gas output following attacks on its LNG facilities.

In India, a massive global urea market, three urea plants have cut output as LNG supplies from Qatar have plummeted.

India, home to nearly a fifth of the world’s population, buys more than 40 per cent of its urea and phosphatic fertilizers from the Middle East, and recently agreed to buy 1.3 million tons of urea, some of which might not arrive on time.

Bangladesh has shut four of its five fertilizer factories, while Australia’s Wesfarmers has warned of possible shipment delays, including for urea.

Egypt, which supplies eight per cent of globally traded urea, could struggle to produce nitrogen fertilizer after Israel declared force majeure on gas exports to the country, Scotiabank and Rabobank analysts say.

Brazil is almost 100 per cent reliant on urea imports — nearly half of which transits the Strait of Hormuz.

In the U.S., farmers are reporting sold out retailers, with the country about 25 per cent short of fertilizer supplies for this time of year.

Globally, urea exports are set to fall to about 1.5 million metric tons in March, compared to 3.5 million without China’s supplies, or 4.5 to 5 million with China, according to Scotiabank.

How has the conflict affected prices?

Urea export prices in the Middle East have jumped about 40 per cent to just above $700 per metric ton (C$958) on March 13 from just under $500 (C$685) before the war, according to Argus.

In the U.S., fertilizer prices have surged as much as 32 per cent since the conflict began.

Analysts say prices for nitrogen-based fertilizers like urea could roughly double if the war drags on.

Given the Middle East’s dominant market share, no producer can quickly make up for the lost supply, according to Chris Lawson, analyst at CRU.

Russia, the world’s largest fertilizer exporter, is facing supply disruptions due to Ukraine drone strikes, while China, despite ample capacity, is restricting exports, he said.

— Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz, Sybille de La Hamaide and Dewi Kurniawati

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The decision aims to ensure adequate supply during peak agricultural demand, the China Agricultural Means of Production Association said in a statement, instructing storage firms to sell reserves to support orderly trading and stabilize prices.

“This year’s release is at least 15 days earlier than previous cycles. Some farmers in Henan and Shandong have been complaining about phosphate fertilizer shortages in recent days,” said a Beijing-based fertilizer analyst, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

The release includes nitrogen, phosphate and compound fertilizers. China’s fertilizers are normally released once a year before spring plowing season.

Early emergency releases are usually launched in the event of market shortages or price fluctuations, the analyst said.

China restricting exports

The early drawdown of reserves follows a series of warnings from state-linked industry bodies urging producers not to hoard supplies or raise prices as farmers across the country prepare for spring planting.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has shut down regional fertilizer plants and severely disrupted shipping routes, threatening supplies to key global importers like India as farmers in the Northern Hemisphere gear up for planting.

The global fertilizer market was already tight, with China restricting exports this year to secure domestic supply, analysts said.

China, the world’s largest producer of urea – a nitrogen-based fertilizer – tightly controls exports via quotas and has issued no permits for shipments this year.

A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could reduce global output, although China remains on track to produce a record 76.5 million tons of urea this year, the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association said.

— Reporting by Daphne Zhang, Ethan Wang and Lewis Jackson

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Dennis Lange, industry development pulses specialist for Manitoba Ag, said in a March 10 interview that any such changes “would be an option for somebody who hasn’t had fertilizer plans set up already.” Lange said if there were to be any alterations, the most likely crops to change to would be soybeans and pulses.

Fertilizer, crude oil prices rise

Fertilizer prices have spiked, following sharp hikes in crude oil prices that started when the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.

The day before, urea futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were about US$442 per tonne in the nearby contracts. By March 3, urea hit US$590 and closed March 10 at US$585.

In comparison, the April contract for West Texas Intermediate jumped from US$67 per barrel on Feb. 27, to almost US$95 six days later. On March 9, WTI topped out at more than US$119/barrel before closing at around US$83.50.

Fall fertilizer

Lange said Manitoba farmers managed to get down a good amount of fertilizer in the fall after a number of extensions to the application deadline following frequent rains.

“For now, I don’t foresee any big swings because there was a fair bit of fertilizer that went down last fall, on the nitrogen side anyways,” Lange said.

He added that growers will likely keep to their crop rotations and give consideration to weed issues, especially when it comes to planting peas.

“It’s the status quo for the most part, but if there’s unseeded acres or unplanned acres, that might be a shift to the crop set that might be more economical,” Lange said.

StatCan forecast

On March 5, Statistics Canada issued its planted area projections for 2026/27 and forecast less pulse acres for Manitoba while soybeans are to increase.

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That would be in addition to the planted area recently projected by Statistics Canada, as nitrogen-based fertilizers have seen price hikes of 30 per cent since the start of the current Middle East war. Vessels transiting the narrow Strait of Hormuz to and from the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf have come to a stop, which threatens global supplies.

On Feb. 27, nearby urea futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were nearly US$442 per tonne and then jumped to US$590 by March 3. Since then, urea has fluctuated with crude oil prices, closing on March 9 at US$585/tonne.

Pulses add nitrogen

Risula said in a March 10 interview that switching to pulses would make sense due to the nitrogen benefits they provide.

“But it may not be as much as one might think because there are other aspects that could influence farmers’ decisions,” he added.

He said farmers’ crop rotations would be a major consideration as well as concerns over root rot, which has been a problem for pulse crops in Saskatchewan.

Of the choices for additional pulse acres, Risula said the most likely would be lentils. Another selection he said farmers would consider is chickpeas.

“They’re growing it away from the area it was intended for, which was the drier part of southwest Saskatchewan,” he said, noting there are more chickpea varieties available.

StatCan recently forecast a 13.3 per cent increase of planted chickpea acres in Saskatchewan for 2026/27 at 559,100.

Phosphorus issues

As for lentils and peas, Risula cautioned these pulses require good phosphorus levels, which is currently a problem in the province.

“Generally, our soils have been running down in phosphorus levels,” which he said are cyclical.

That would also mean farmers would have to consider the costs to applying phosphorus where levels are lower than normal and its availability. While urea process have risen significantly, those for phosphorous are up only five per cent.

StatCan planted and forecast pulse acres in Saskatchewan

Pulse 2025/26 2026/27

Lentils 3,808,600 3,643,900

Dry Peas 1,773,000 1,479,300

Chickpeas 493,400 559,100

Faba Beans 15,300 29,800

Dry Beans 8,600 n/a

– With files from Sean Pratt, Glacier FarmMedia

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The war has shut down fertilizer plants in the Middle East and severely disrupted shipping routes via the Strait of Hormuz; conduit for about a third of global trade in fertilizers.

Russia accounts for about one-fifth of global fertilizer trade, but limited capacity, domestic export caps and recent Ukrainian attacks on major plants all constrain its ability to ramp up output, the sources said.

Domestic supply obligations

New export-oriented plants are not expected to come on stream before 2027, according to one source who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“Higher prices look great on paper, but Russian producers are boxed in by domestic supply obligations, especially ahead of the planting season,” said another industry source, who also spoke on condition of anonymity.

“And any windfall profits are likely to draw government attention as it looks for ways to boost budget revenues.”

A third source, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said companies are currently focused on meeting domestic demand.

“It may be possible to cover, over a short horizon, the demand left unmet without the Middle East, but in the long term it’s too large a volume to replace,” the source added.

A Ukrainian drone attack on Dorogobuzh, one of Russia’s largest fertilizer plants, owned by major producer Acron, on Feb. 25, has temporarily knocked out about five per cent of the country’s overall production capacity and killed seven people.

Dorogobuzh accounts for 11 per cent of Russia’s ammonium nitrate output and nine per cent of its NPK fertilizer production, a mixture of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium.

One quarter of global trade by 2030

Russia, also the world’s top wheat exporter, introduced fertilizer export restrictions in 2021 to ensure sufficient supply on the domestic market.

Andrey Guryev, head of the industry lobby, estimated the gap between lower domestic and higher export prices at about 15 per cent during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2025.

He also told Putin that Russia is aiming to capture one-quarter of global fertilizer trade by 2030.

Russian fertilizer producers have been spared most Ukraine-related Western sanctions in order to ensure global food security, but face payment and logistical difficulties related to sanctions.

Brazil, India and China are the biggest buyers of Russian fertilizers, and it also exports to the U.S.

Shares in two of Russia’s publicly traded producers, Acron and PhosAgro, have risen modestly, by three per cent and four per cent, respectively, on the Moscow Exchange since the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran began on Feb. 28.

“A shortage of phosphate fertilizers, amid China’s export restrictions, the shutdown of sulphur production in Qatar, and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, is a powerful driver for price increases in the market,” T-Bank analysts said in a research note.

“Against this backdrop, PhosAgro, as one of the key global suppliers, could strengthen significantly.”

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The war, which has closed the Strait of Hormuz, has shut down fertilizer plants in the region and severely disrupted shipping routes, potentially curbing supplies to key importers around the world just as farmers in the Northern Hemisphere prepare to plant seeds.

“It’s a mess because it’s spring,” said Cedric Benoist, who farms wheat, barley and other crops south of Paris, referring to global fertilizer prices that have jumped by dozens of euros per metric ton. “This situation can’t continue.” Farmers from Srinagar in Kashmir to Saskatchewan in Canada rely on fertilizer and diesel shipped through the strait, the conduit for about one-third of global trade in fertilizer and 20 per cent of the world’s export fuels.

Because of a global grains glut, many farmers were already expecting to lose money on this year’s crop. Now the outlook is especially gloomy for farmers who still need to buy spring fertilizer, like Jeff Harrison of Quinte West in Ontario. “We’re in a real bad situation now,” Harrison said.

Prices in the United States, which imports much of its fertilizer needs despite a large domestic industry, rose at the war’s outbreak. Prices for fertilizer jumped from $516 (C$706) per metric ton on Friday to up to $683 (C$934) at the import hub of New Orleans on Thursday. Prices could jump higher if the Persian Gulf closure persists and shipments can’t make it in time for spring planting, analysts told Reuters.

“Literally, this could not happen at a worse time of the year,” said StoneX analyst Josh Linville.

World’s largest single-site urea plant shuts down

Seth Meyer, former U.S. Department of Agriculture chief economist and now at the Food and Agricultural Policy Institute, said farmers might alter crop choices and fertilizer applications due to the price spike.

Farmers need fertilizers for virtually all their crops if they want a good yield, but each crop and the soil they are grown in have different demands.

Farmers could cut back on corn, which requires high rates of nitrogen fertilizer, or else sharply reduce fertilizer application rates, Meyer said.

Shipments from the Middle East are likely to drop not only because transit through the Strait of Hormuz has all but stopped, but also due to cuts in production.

Qatar Energy has had to stop production at the world’s largest single-site urea plant, as it lost its source of natural gas feedstock after the company shut down gas output due to attacks on its LNG facilities.

At the same time, sulfur output has been cut in other parts of the Middle East.

“We have lost a significant chunk of the global supply because of this situation,” Linville of StoneX said.

India buys more than 40 per cent of its urea and phosphatic fertilizers from the Middle East. While imports could be hit, output within India has already been affected.

Three Indian plants have been forced to reduce urea output as LNG supplies from Qatar have dropped sharply, said a New Delhi-based senior industry official. As a result, supply is expected to be tight for urea and diammonium phosphate in the short term, the person said.

Fertilizer market tight before war

The global fertilizer market was already tight, with China restricting exports this year to ensure domestic availability, while producers in Europe have cut output due to the loss of cheap Russian gas supply, analysts said.

Urea prices had risen by around $80 (C$109) per ton from around $470 per ton quoted before the start of the Iran war, they said.

China is likely to expand fertilizer export controls because of the conflict, two agricultural analysts said, although the restrictions may not be formally announced and instead communicated to major producers and customs.

While China sources more than 50 per cent of its sulfur imports from the Middle East, Indonesia relies on the region for nearly 70 per cent of its supplies, traders said. Sulfur is a key ingredient for phosphate fertilizers like diammonium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate.

“It is really hard to find readily available spot cargoes now. There are no spot cargoes anywhere,” said one Chinese sulfur trader.

Australia is dependent on imports to meet most of its fertilizer needs, say industry analysts.

“Another nail in the coffin”

Agricultural economist Corne Louw of GrainSA, which represents South African farmers, told Reuters that fertilizer can make up as much as 50 per cent of their production costs.

“Any increases in the current situation where farmers are already struggling with record low grain prices will just be another nail in the coffin,” he said.

Markets might not yet have fully priced in the possibility of a long war, according to Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein, who estimates that nitrogen prices could roughly double and phosphate prices rise 50 per cent from current levels.

“If the supply shock lasts more than a few weeks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see prices go back to the highs of 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict began,” Goldstein said.

— Additional reporting by Lewis Jackson, Daphne Zhang and Amy Lv in Beijing, Trixie Yap in Singapore and Rajendra Jadhav in Mumbai, Tristan Veyet in Gdansk, Gus Trompiz in Paris, Wendell Roelf in Johannesburg and Nigel Hunt in London.

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