However, while wheat stocks are also expected to rise, the canola carryout was revised lower due to expected increases in exports and domestic usage.

The government agency raised its forecast for total Canadian wheat production in 2022-23 to 33.719 million tonnes, which compares with the June estimate of 33.092 million and the year-ago level of 21.652 million tonnes when drought cut into yields.

With only minor adjustments in the wheat usage numbers, the ending stocks for 2022-23 were raised to 5.7 million tonnes from an estimated five million in June. That compares with the 2021-22 projected carryout of 3.65 million tonnes.

For canola, total production was forecast at 18.4 million tonnes, which would be up by 450,000 from the June estimate and well above the year-ago level of 12.595 million.

Exports and domestic usage for canola were both raised from earlier projections, causing the expected carryout for 2022-23 to dip to 450,000 from an estimated 500,000 tonnes in June. Canola ending stocks for the current marketing year were left unchanged at 400,000 tonnes.

Pulses and special crops only saw minor adjustments on the month.

Table: July estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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In its June estimates of principal field crop areas, released Tuesday, Statistics Canada pegged total canola planted area at 22.5 million acres, up roughly a million acres from its earlier forecast, and also up from the 20.8 million acres seeded a year ago and the five-year average of 21.7 million acres.

“High global demand for oilseeds likely contributed to farmers’ decision to plant more canola,” StatsCan said, adding that prices are expected to remain high through the year.

Total wheat area in the country was estimated at 23.4 million acres, up by about 100,000 from the earlier forecast but still below the 25 million seeded in 2020.

“Dry conditions were a concern for farmers in parts of Western Canada throughout seeding and into the start of the growing season,” StatsCan said. “Precipitation at the start of the growing season was well below average, and although much of the Prairies have received some precipitation throughout May, lower than normal soil moisture continues to be a concern.

“Dry conditions did allow producers to begin planting early, with provincial reports indicating that seeding progressed at a relatively fast pace.”

Pea and lentil seedings were also revised higher from the earlier estimate, at 3.8 million and 4.3 million acres respectively — both of which would be in line with the five-year averages.

Barley and oats acres were both down slightly from the April report, but at 8.3 million acres the barley area would still be well above the five-year average of 6.8 million.

Where April’s report had called for a 1.8 per cent increase in grain corn acres, Tuesday’s report marked nationwide corn area for 2021 at 3.47 million acres, down 2.5 per cent from 2020 and well down from the 3.62 million estimated in April.

Corn acres in Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba were estimated down two, 0.6 and 1.4 per cent in Tuesday’s report respectively compared to 2020 levels.

Soybean acres in June’s report were pegged at 5.32 million, down from 5.35 million in the late April report but still up 4.9 per cent from the 2020 planted area.

StatsCan said the year-over-year increase in soy area “may have been attributable to farmers responding to high global demand and higher prices.” Acres in Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba were up three, 4.5 and 14.5 per cent respectively.

Table: A recap of Statistics Canada’s estimates of principal field crop area as of June 2021, in millions of acres. April estimates, year-ago acreage and five-year averages are provided for comparison purposes. Figures are in million acres.

* includes spring wheat, durum wheat, and winter wheat remaining after winterkill

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The main reason for the delay is the COVID-19 pandemic, said John Seay, an analyst with StatsCan’s agriculture, energy, environment and transportation statistics branch in Ottawa.

“Given the COVID-19 outbreak, senior management is currently reassessing all of the programs. So the focus right now is on issuing critical surveys,” he said.

The first of those reports, on principal field crop area, was originally scheduled for April 24, he said.

“We were only about halfway through collection when all of this shutdown happened as a result of COVID-19,” he said. “We had to do a quality assessment of our data… and see what our estimates were like to publish at this time.”

The follow-up report, slated for June 29, will be postponed as well, as will the stocks of principal field crops report that was to be released May 7, he said.

Along with the above reports, Statistics Canada issues a number of other farm-related reports throughout a calendar year, including:

• farm income (May 26, Nov. 25),
• principal field crops estimates (Sept. 14), and
• production of principal field crops (Aug. 31, Dec. 3).

Seay was unable to provide new release dates for those reports at this time.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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In the report, canola production across Canada decreased by 8.3 per cent nationally to 18.6 million tonnes, compared to 2018 production volumes.

The decreased production was due in part to lowered harvested area. Inclement harvest conditions, including early snow in the Prairies, meant a significant portion of the crop was left out to be harvested in the spring.

Total harvested canola area fell 8.8 per cent, to 20.6 million acres. Although acreage was lower, yields rose by 0.5 per cent, to 40 bushels per acre.

Production decreased the most in Saskatchewan, where farmers reported a 7.3 per cent drop in production to total just over 10 million tonnes. That drop was attributed mainly to lowered harvested area, which decreased by 7.1 per cent to 11.4 million acres. In Alberta, harvested area fell by nearly 13 per cent to 5.8 million acres, bringing total production down by 9.4 per cent to 5.3 million tonnes. Producers in Manitoba reported canola production down by 7.9 per cent, to 3.1 million tonnes.

Barley production beat out some trade expectations, coming in at over 10 million tonnes for 2019. The increase was due to harvested area — up by 13.9 per cent — and yields, which rose by nearly nine per cent to 70.8 bushels per acre.

Wheat production volumes were in line with expectations, up by 0.5 per cent from 2018 to total 32.3 million tonnes. Decreased harvested area was offset by higher yields, which were up by 2.7 per cent to total 49.8 bushels per acre.

— Marlo Glass reports for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

Table: Select numbers from Statistics Canada’s production of field crops report, released Dec. 6, 2019, including pre-report estimates, September 2019’s report and last year’s final production numbers, in millions of metric tonnes.

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In September, the federal agency estimated Canada’s barley production to total just less than 10 million tonnes, two million higher than the final count for the 2018-19 growing year. However, some trade estimates are notably lower.

“The big question here is how much barley was actually harvested,” commented Jerry Klassen of GAP SA Grains in Winnipeg.

Klassen estimated barley production to be closer to 9.5 million tonnes, given that yields from October’s harvest were noticeably lower than barley that came off the field in September.

“It was lighter weight, a lot of it sprouted,” he said. “A lot of the sprouted barley had very low test weight.”

In some cases, he said, yields were 10 to 15 bushels per acre lower in October compared to September.

Cash barley prices have also rallied by about $30 after hitting harvest lows, which also indicated tightened supplies.

“If you had a 10 million-tonne crop, that market would still be at harvest lows,” he said.

StatsCan’s September estimates for canola production totaled 19.3 million tonnes, but some trade estimates are more cautious.

“The general feeling is those numbers will be down from previous levels,” said Keith Ferley of RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg.

Ferley’s estimate for the canola yield came in at 18.8 million tonnes.

“We’ve obviously had some big trouble getting the crop off this fall, so you have to be realistic.”

Only 62 per cent of canola in the Peace River region in Alberta came off the fields, which caused some pessimism. “That’s some very high-yielding canola,” said Klassen.

Trade estimates peg spring wheat production at around 26 million tonnes, a figure on par with Statistics Canada’s September estimates.

Similarly, durum estimates are on track with what was approximated earlier in the year. StatsCan’s September estimate was just below five million tonnes, and trade expectations remained in that range as well.

— Marlo Glass reports for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

Table: Pre-report trade guesses, in millions of tonnes.

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One of the most notable numbers from AAFC was the drop in 2019-20 corn exports, which were estimated to be about 1.5 million tonnes, over 20 per cent less compared to the September estimate.

Also for that crop year, the carryout was lowered by more than 18 per cent, to 1.8 million tonnes.

Carryout for 2019-20 canola was revised upward as well, by nearly 4.5 per cent, to 4.7 million tonnes.

For 2019-20, the October report placed canola production at 19.4 million tonnes. That’s down five per cent from the previous year.

Canola exports were estimated to be 9.2 million tonnes, or 1.1 million tonnes below the five-year average, largely due to the loss of the China market. Increased exports elsewhere and lower Australian canola and European rapeseed production provided some cushioning.

As for wheat excluding durum, production was pegged in the October report to increase by four per cent to 27.5 million tonnes. The report noted the revision was based on more acres seeded countered by lower average yields and higher abandonment for winter wheat.

Wheat exports were lowered by four per cent to 19 million tonnes, based on greater global competition from other exporting countries incurring larger production.

For durum, October’s report dropped production by 13 per cent from 2018-19, to five million tonnes, due to 21 per cent fewer acres. Higher yields made up for part of the decline.

The durum carryout was forecast to be one million tonnes for 2019-20, for a 40 per cent drop from the previous year.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm, a Glacer FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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The agency’s production of principal field crops report was “bang on with expectations across the board,” according to Ken Ball of PI Financial in Winnipeg.

While both the canola and total wheat forecasts were at the lower end of market estimates and slightly supportive for prices, he said the Statistics Canada survey was conducted in July and didn’t reflect improved crop conditions in August.

Ball expected most crops would see upward revisions of three to five per cent in subsequent reports, with canola likely hitting 19 million tonnes and spring wheat 25.6 million.

StatsCan on Wednesday pegged the canola crop at 18.453 million tonnes, which would be down by nearly 10 per cent on the year and the smallest crop in five years.

All-wheat was estimated at 31.251 million tonnes (including durum, other spring wheat and winter wheat), a reduction of about one million tonnes from 2018-19.

However, the smaller wheat crop was tied to a drop in durum production, with other spring wheat up 1.2 million tonnes on the year at 25.108 million tonnes.

“I suspect the canola crop has improved,” said analyst Mike Jubinville of MarketsFarm Pro. However, he added, development is running behind normal and still needs good harvest conditions in northern growing regions to meet the expectations.

StatsCan on Wednesday estimated barley production at 9.645 million tonnes, up by about 1.3 million tonnes from the previous year. The larger crop was not a surprise, with new-crop bids already under pressure compared to the tight old–crop barley market, said Jubinville.

Peas at 4.528 million tonnes and lentils at 2.384 million tonnes respectively were up by 27 and 14 per cent respectively. Those large crops suggest that the pulse market “will be stuck in the doldrums” until a fix is found for demand issues with India, Jubinville said.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

Table: Summary of Statistics Canada’s August production estimates for 2019-20, released Aug. 28, 2019. Pre-report estimates and year-ago numbers are included for comparison. Production in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Statistics Canada.

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Statistics Canada’s report, released Tuesday, shows canola stocks as of Dec. 31, 2018 were at 14.553 million tonnes, up 4.9 per cent from year-earlier levels,

“The numbers are sort of in line with what you would expect with the production we had last year and export performance to date,” said Bruce Burnett of MarketsFarm, noting exports and domestic use are down.

Also, Burnett pointed out there was a carry-in of approximately one million tonnes more of canola from 2017, while 2018 production was down by 600,000-700,000 tonnes.

A large carry-out of about three million tonnes of canola was predicted by Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada and MarketsFarm, as the demand for the crop is not strong enough.

“Relative to where we were last year, 13.869 million tonnes, there’s been a lot of analysts and organizations suggesting the canola carry-out is going to drop this year,” Jubinville said. “This is not telling me that.

“We’re going to need some pretty impressive export numbers to chew this inventory down to bring us to a carry-out similar to last year of about 2.5 million tonnes.”

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada currently forecasts ending stocks for the 2018-19 crop year at 2.3 million tonnes.

As for wheat, Burnett said the numbers are down when durum was excluded, with a decrease of 3.5 per cent to 17.905 million tonnes. He credited that to a decline in production of spring wheat. Durum by itself was up 12.5 per cent from last year, at 5.328 million tonnes.

Jubinville saw a reason for concern with oats, for which stocks were down 19.7 per cent at 2.316 million tonnes.

“A smaller crop overall, because of the challenging harvest we had with cold, wet weather,” he said, suggesting oats be rationed to maintain higher prices until the 2019 crop is available.

Burnett cautioned as to how much one should read into this specific Statistics Canada report overall.

“In the pantheon of reports, it doesn’t really give you a lot. You’re too close to harvest to show anything in terms of what the usage trends are.”

Crops covered in the Statistics Canada report also include barley, of which stocks fell 18.2 per cent to 4.938 million tonnes, and soybeans, with stocks down by 8.5 per cent to 3.994 million tonnes.

Flax dropped 31.7 per cent, for stocks of 356,000 tonnes; rye plummeted 58.5 per cent, for stocks of 139,000 tonnes.

— Glen Hallick writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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However, two observers agree the final numbers won’t have much effect on markets.

“It’s not a report that’s going to allow canola to trade tremendously strong. It might trade a shade firmer, but the number is not going to alter things too much,” said Ken Ball of PI Financial in Winnipeg.

The StatsCan report placed final canola production at 20.343 million tonnes, down 656,000 from the agency’s September data and nearly one million tonnes lower than the final 2017-18 figures. Figures for September were model-based; the final numbers for this year and last are survey-based.

“On the canola side, (the report) is mildly supportive. I’d say the big change in the Canadian dollar over the last couple of days, where it got beaten down a little bit, that probably has more of an impact than this,” said Neil Townsend, analyst with FarmLink Marketing Solutions in Winnipeg.

Ball believes canola stocks will become tighter than they have in recent years. However, he wasn’t surprised with the data for wheat.

StatsCan’s final number for all wheat was 31.769 million tonnes, up by about 750,000 tonnes from September and by nearly two million tonnes compared to last year.

“Wheat yields were spectacular in many parts of the Prairies this year,” Ball commented.

FarmLink believed the figures for wheat would have been higher, Townsend said.

“Lucky for us there’s lots of big demand for Canadian wheat this year, so having that extra wheat and especially if it’s of relatively good quality or average quality, it’s very saleable,” he said.

Looking at pulses, Townsend said what’s now happening in India will have a greater impact on the markets than the StatsCan report.

“There’s a kharif crop that’s down and then a rabi crop that’s being very slowly planted. Maybe some acres won’t get in because of a lack of rain.”

Canada grew 3.581 million tonnes of peas and 2.092 million tonnes of lentils in 2018, according to StatsCan. That compares with 4.112 million tonnes of peas and 2.559 million tonnes of lentils in 2017.

— Glen Hallick writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

Table: A quick summary of the Statistics Canada December production estimates for 2018-19, in millions of metric tonnes. September model-based estimates, August survey-based estimates and year-ago numbers are included for comparison. Source: Statistics Canada.

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StatsCan’s report, due out Thursday, is a “very uncertain” report “because that was probably one of the most bizarre falls we’ve ever had on the Prairies,” said Ken Ball of PI Financial in Winnipeg.

StatsCan’s production reports usually follow a pattern in which the numbers released earlier in the growing year are lower, then each subsequent report usually sees the production levels grow. However, this year could see the numbers closer to previous reports than in years past.

This growing season varied from a “normal” year. Hot, dry weather throughout August caused stress on crops and in September, Mother Nature pulled a complete 180°, switching to cold, wet weather which delayed harvest well into October.

“I think probably the model numbers maybe overestimated things a bit this year,” Ball said. “So I think most people are guessing that the real crop is sort of somewhere in between the model number and the July report.”

From pre-report estimates collected by CNS Canada, many market analysts expect wheat production to grow, with estimates for total wheat production falling between 30.4 million and 32.247 million tonnes, which would be higher than the August survey-based report, but in line with the September model-based report.

Canola production estimates are between 20.2 million and 21.3 million tonnes — in line with the September report, but higher than in August’s.

Another analyst thinks the report could vary greatly and pack some surprises. Talking with farmers in northern Alberta, who were largely affected by the delayed harvest, Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada has heard harvest results differed from town to town.

“It may be more of a quality issue than it is a yield issue. But there’s been an issue there because they went through a month of crop that was either sitting in swath or uncut because it got cold and wet,” he said.

Jubinville expects there could be some trimming of production numbers from the September report, due to the challenging harvest.

“But there’s an incredible resiliency to these crops that they may stand up better than we think and hold up and not really get trimmed too much,” he said.

— Ashley Robinson writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow her at @ashleymr1993 on Twitter.

Table: Trade estimates, in millions of tonnes, ahead of StatsCan’s Dec. 6, 2018 Production of Principal Field Crops report.

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