Highlights

• Current indications are that a cooler-than-average weather pattern will persist for the next seven to 10 days.
• With no major systems expected to hit Alberta over the next week, much of the province will see relatively quiet weather. Sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected to dominate most days.
• From Wednesday through Friday, Manitoba and Saskatchewan can expect partly or mostly cloudy skies and the chance of occasional flurries.

Overview

The weather models had a fairly good handle on the overall pattern over the past week, but as is usual at this time of year, the finer details were a little off. What is perhaps more notable is how consistent the broader pattern has been, which has allowed models to perform reasonably well even further out. Over the past three to four weeks, there has been very little change in the large-scale setup, and that consistency looks to continue.

While temperatures will gradually trend upward as we move into spring, the overall cooler-than-average pattern remains firmly in place. Current indications suggest this will persist for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

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We begin this forecast period with high pressure firmly entrenched across the northern Prairies. Meanwhile, the main storm track is taking shape across the northern United States. This places much of the agricultural Prairies in a sort of in-between zone — caught between the dominant influence of northern high pressure and more active weather to the south.

The good news, depending on your perspective, is that most heavier precipitation events are expected to remain south of the border through this forecast period. The downside? Any significant early spring warmth will also stay to our south.

For areas still holding onto snowpack, this means the slow, gradual melt will continue rather than a rapid spring runoff.

Alberta

With no major systems expected to hit the province over the next week, much of Alberta will see relatively quiet weather. Sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected to dominate most days.

That said, the models are tracking an area of low pressure that’s pushing in from the Pacific and cutting through Montana on Thursday into Friday. This system will likely bring increased cloud cover along with scattered showers or flurries to southern Alberta late Thursday. Central and northern regions can expect partly cloudy skies with the occasional flurry.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side through this period, with daytime highs generally in the 0 to 3°C range and overnight lows dipping to around -6°C.

Conditions should improve heading into the weekend as the Montana low shifts eastward and weak upper-level ridging builds into the province. This should allow for more sunshine and warmth with daytime highs rising into the 7 to 11°C range across most regions.

Looking ahead to early next week, the models suggest an area of low pressure developing over northern Alberta. This could bring increased cloud cover and periods of snow to northern parts of the province.

Farther south, a southerly flow ahead of the system may allow milder air to push in, potentially lifting daytime highs into the mid-teens. As has been the case with this pattern, confidence in this portion of the forecast remains low and will need to be monitored.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

We begin the forecast period with a departing frontal system that brought anywhere from a light dusting of snow to upwards of 10 to 15 cm in some areas. In its wake, weak high pressure will attempt to build into the region, but conditions are expected to remain somewhat unsettled.

From Wednesday through Friday, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and the chance of occasional flurries. Daytime highs will largely depend on cloud cover — generally hovering around the freezing mark under thicker clouds but climbing to around 5°C in sunnier areas.

Heading into the weekend, a more defined battle sets up between high pressure to the north and the active storm track to the south. This will result in a mix of sunny to partly cloudy conditions. Southern regions will likely see more cloud cover given their proximity to the storm track, while northern areas should benefit from increased sunshine.

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Temperatures over the weekend are expected to reach around 5°C, which is near to slightly below seasonal averages for this time of year.

Early next week, attention turns to the potential development of a low pressure system over northern Alberta. If this system evolves as currently projected, it could draw milder air northward across the southern Prairies on Tuesday and Wednesday. This could push daytime highs closer to the 10°C mark.

Confidence remains low regarding the exact evolution of this system. Current model runs indicate the potential for another round of accumulating snowfall by midweek, likely in the Wednesday to Thursday timeframe, but details on track, intensity, and precipitation type remain uncertain.

The post Prairie forecast: Cooler than average temperatures expected to continue appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Highlights:

• Arctic high pressure is expected to drop southward into the Prairies later this week and into the weekend, keeping temperatures below average.
• Central and northern Alberta can expect snow on Wednesday while the south sees a chance of flurries or scattered showers. Temperatures will fall below average.
• A low pressure system is expected to produce a swath of 5 to 10 cm of snow across the central Prairies on Wednesday.
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  Saskatchewan and Manitoba temperatures will trend below average toward the end of the week. Daytime highs are expected to reach around 5°C across extreme southern areas, while central regions will see highs closer to -5°C.

Overview

Despite the high level of uncertainty we typically see in spring, last week’s forecast played out surprisingly close to expectations. With a record breaking heat wave over much of the U.S., you might expect some of that warmth to push northward. However, a persistent ridge of Arctic high pressure over the northern Prairies has effectively kept that heat locked to our south.

We begin this forecast period with an area of low pressure tracking across the northern U.S. and an associated frontal boundary draped across the south-central Prairies. This is the same system that weather models indicated would impact the region in last week’s forecast.

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Behind it, Arctic high pressure is expected to drop southward into the Prairies later this week and into the weekend, keeping temperatures below average.

There are some indications of weak ridging building over the western Prairies late in the weekend, but model guidance has been inconsistent with this feature. At times models strengthen the ridge. At other times they keep it relatively weak. At this point, the consensus suggests the ridge will remain modest, allowing another area of low pressure to move through the region. This will bring an additional chance of snow, particularly across southern areas.

As is often the case this time of year, any passing low is likely to be followed by another push of Arctic high pressure. That means true spring warmth may still be a week or two away.

Alberta

This forecast period begins with an area of low pressure pushing eastward out of the Pacific. This system is expected to bring snow to much of central and northern Alberta on Wednesday, with general amounts in the 2 to 5 cm range. Across southern regions, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with a chance of flurries or scattered rain showers.

Once this system moves through, weak Arctic high pressure will settle into the region, bringing a return to below average temperatures. Daytime highs across central and northern areas are expected to fall to around -8°C, while southern regions cool to near -2°C.

Temperatures should begin to rebound over the weekend, particularly across southern Alberta, as a weak upper ridge develops. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies, with daytime highs climbing into the 8 to 10°C range in the south and 3°C to 5°C across central regions.

Looking ahead to March 30 and 31, weather models indicate the potential for an area of low pressure over Wyoming that would then track eastward. If this system materializes, it could draw moisture northward and result in widespread snowfall across much of central and southern Alberta. Snowfall amounts remain uncertain at this time, and as is typical at this range, the details could change significantly.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

This forecast period begins with a frontal wave tied to an area of low pressure tracking across the northern U.S. That’s the same system referenced in last week’s forecast. As expected, its exact track and strength have shifted somewhat.

This system is expected to produce a swath of 5 to 10 cm of snow across the central Prairies, with totals tapering off significantly both north and south of this band. The system should exit the eastern Prairies by Thursday, followed by the southward advance of Arctic high pressure. This will bring a return to sunny skies and relatively light winds on Friday and through the weekend.

With Arctic high pressure in place, temperatures will trend below average. Daytime highs are expected to reach around 5°C across extreme southern areas, while central regions will see highs closer to -5°C.

Early next week, weather models are suggesting a pattern similar to the previous week, with another area of low pressure potentially developing over Wyoming and tracking eastward across the northern United States. While confidence in the development of this system is relatively high, its exact track and intensity remains uncertain. As with last week’s system, it will need to be monitored closely, as it may evolve into a more significant spring storm.

The post Prairie forecast: Arctic air keeps spring warming at bay appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Highlights

• Several chances for rain and snow across central and northern Alberta
• Warm air has spread across Saskatchewan and will reach Manitoba on Wednesday before temperatures begin to cool on Sunday

Overview

While spring appears to be gaining a foothold across the western Prairies, it continues to struggle across the eastern regions. This forecast period looks milder than the last, but weather models are still not showing a clear or sustained shift toward a more spring-like pattern.

We begin this period with a shallow but broad upper ridge building across the southern Prairies while Arctic high pressure remains in place over northern Canada. Between these two features, several areas of low pressure are expected to move in from Pacific and track eastward across the central and northern Prairies.

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Current model guidance suggests the upper ridge will begin to break down over the weekend, which will allow Arctic high pressure to push southward. This will shift the primary storm track from the central and northern Prairies into the central and southern regions by late weekend or early next week.

As a result, after a relatively warm start, cooler temperatures are expected to return. Along with this cooling trend comes an increased chance of precipitation which will likely fall mainly as snow.

There are also early indications of a potentially significant storm system affecting the southern and central Prairies around next Wednesday. However, as is often the case at this range, details remain uncertain.

Alberta

This forecast period begins with a surge of warm air supported by a building upper ridge and a strong westerly flow off the Pacific. Southern regions should see more sun than cloud from Wednesday through Friday, with daytime highs reaching the mid-teens.

Farther north, weak disturbances moving over the ridge will bring a mix of sun and cloud and the chance of a few showers. Temperatures in these areas should remain mild, with daytime highs around 10°C.

By the weekend, the upper ridge is expected to break down. This will allow cooler air to push southward while also shifting the storm track into the province.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop over central Alberta on Saturday, bringing snow to those regions before tracking into southern areas late Saturday into early Sunday. It will bring the potential for accumulating snow. Daytime highs will drop significantly, settling near the freezing mark.

Cooler and more unsettled conditions are expected to continue through Sunday and Monday. Looking ahead to Tuesday, models indicate a stronger area of low pressure pushing inland from the Pacific. This system is expected to bring snow to central and northern regions on Wednesday.

Southern areas may see rain or a rain-snow mix transitioning to snow as colder air moves in behind the system. This is a system worth monitoring closely.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Milder air that has already spread across Saskatchewan will begin moving into Manitoba on Wednesday. Expect more clouds than sun from Wednesday through Friday as a couple of weak disturbances track eastward in the westerly flow aloft. A few scattered showers or flurries are possible with these systems.

Temperatures will be warmest across southern Saskatchewan were more sunshine is expected, with daytime highs in the 10 to 12°C range. Across Manitoba, conditions will be slightly cooler, with highs of 5 to 8°C in western regions and 3 to 5°C farther east.

As the upper ridge weakens and shifts southward on Saturday, an area of low pressure is expected to track across the southern Prairies, bringing a quick shot of accumulating snow with amounts generally expected to be only a couple of centimetres.

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Temperatures will cool, with daytime highs falling into the 0 to 3°C range. Skies should begin to clear on Sunday as Arctic high pressure builds into the region. This will bring sunny conditions into Monday and Tuesday along with cooler-than-average temperatures.

Attention then turns to a potential storm system developing over central Alberta and moving eastward on Wednesday. Current indications suggest this system could bring snow and blowing snow to central regions, while southern areas may see rain or a mix transitioning to snow.

The system is expected to move east by late Thursday, followed by a return to colder conditions as Arctic high pressure builds in late in the week. As always with systems this far out, details may change, but it will be one to watch.

The post Prairie forecast: Warm start then cooler air to move back in appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Highlights

• A low pressure system is forecast to track across southern Alberta late Wednesday and into Thursday morning bringing snowfall amounts in the five to 10 cm range. A few areas could see closer to 15 cm of snow.
• Saskatchewan and Manitoba will see the same low move eastward bringing the chance of five to eight cm of snow late this week.
• Early next week, warmer air will push into Alberta but may struggle to displace Arctic air over Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Overview

Over the past week we saw a predominantly northwesterly flow across the Prairies. This pattern helped keep the coldest air bottled up over the northern half of the region. However, as expected during the transition into spring, there was considerable uncertainty regarding how areas of low pressure rippling along this boundary would behave.

Those systems brought a mixed bag of weather, ranging from rain to freezing rain and drizzle, along with some heavier bursts of wet snow. Temperatures also continued their rollercoaster ride, climbing into the low teens on one day before dropping into the negative teens a day or two later.

For this forecast period, it appears we will need to wait a little longer for spring to arrive. Weather models continue to show a northwesterly flow across the region, but this time the dividing line between mild and cold air has shifted slightly farther south. As a result, near to below-average temperatures are expected across much of the Prairies as Arctic high pressure strengthens, while the primary track for low-pressure systems runs along the Canada–U.S. border.

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The first of these systems is forecast to track across southern Alberta late Wednesday and into Thursday morning, bringing snowfall amounts in the five to 10 cm range, with a few locations possibly seeing totals closer to 15 cm. This low will move quickly eastward across southern Saskatchewan late on Thursday before clipping extreme southern Manitoba late Thursday night into early Friday.

Areas along the system’s path in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba could receive a quick 5 to 8 cm of snow.

High pressure should dominate over the weekend, bringing sunny to partly cloudy skies along with cooler conditions. Daytime highs are expected to range between -5°C and -10°C.

Early next week, warmer air is forecast to begin pushing northward into Alberta, bringing a return to milder temperatures. As this milder air advances north, precipitation may develop along the boundary between the warmer and colder air masses. This could bring some light snow to southern and central Saskatchewan on Tuesday and into Manitoba on Wednesday. As usual with forecasts several days out, particularly during spring, details may change.

Alberta

An area of low pressure is expected to develop late Wednesday as energy moves inland from the Pacific. This system is forecast to bring a quick burst of fairly heavy snow across much of southern Alberta, with five to 10 cm likely and locally higher amounts possible. In extreme southern regions, periods of rain or freezing rain may mix in at times.

Behind this system, Arctic high pressure will gradually build southward, bringing a mix of sun and cloud on Friday and Saturday along with cooler temperatures. Daytime highs across southern Alberta are expected to range from -4°C to -7°C, while central and northern regions see highs between -6°C and -10°C.

Late in the weekend and early next week, weather models indicate a large area of low pressure moving into the Gulf of Alaska. This will help push milder air northward into Alberta. Daytime highs across southern Alberta are expected to climb above freezing by Sunday, potentially reaching around 10 C by Tuesday.

Farther north, daytime highs should warm toward the freezing mark on Sunday and into the 2°C to 5°C range by Monday and Tuesday. There are also indications that some energy from the Gulf of Alaska system may move inland on Tuesday, which will bring a chance of light snow to far northern regions.

Unfortunately, the warmer air does not appear likely to last long, as models currently suggest cooler air pushing southward again later in the week.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

This forecast period begins with weak Arctic high pressure in place across both provinces. On Wednesday, this will bring a mix of sun and cloud along with temperatures near to slightly below average.

On Thursday, a low-pressure system moving east from Alberta is expected to bring increasing cloudiness along with a good chance of measurable snowfall, particularly south of the Trans-Canada Highway. Current indications suggest snowfall amounts in the five to eight cm range. The system will continue southeastward Thursday night, bringing similar amounts of snow to western Manitoba and then to extreme southern Manitoba late Thursday into early Friday morning before moving away.

More weather coverage: Southern Prairies brace for dry spring after below-normal winter

Over the weekend, Arctic high pressure will build southward once again, bringing sunny to partly cloudy skies and cool temperatures. Daytime highs are expected to range from -5°C to -8°C, with overnight lows dropping to around -20°C. The good news is that winds should remain light, and with the strengthening spring sunshine conditions should feel fairly pleasant despite the cooler temperatures.

Early next week, warmer air will begin pushing northward into Alberta. This milder air will attempt to spread eastward but may struggle to displace the colder Arctic air currently in place across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Temperatures should begin to moderate gradually, with extreme southern regions approaching the freezing mark by Tuesday.

Along the boundary between the warmer and colder air masses, models suggest light snow or flurries may develop over Saskatchewan on Tuesday. They’ll then spread into Manitoba on Wednesday. Confidence in this part of the forecast remains relatively low at this time. Looking further ahead, the weather models are still not showing a sustained push of true spring conditions across the Prairies.

The post Prairie forecast: Arctic air dominates the forecast appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Highlights

• As is typical during the transition toward spring, medium-range forecasting becomes more challenging
• For Alberta, a cold front on Sunday and Monday could bring light snow, with a chance of more snow in the south
• Saskatchewan and Manitoba can expect a mix of sun and cloud over the weekend with daytime highs ranging from -5°C to 0°C and light winds
• Still few signs of spring warmth

Overview

We’ve experienced a week of notable temperature swings across the Prairies as a generally northwesterly flow remains in place. However, this is not the classic deep winter pattern that draws frigid air straight from the Yukon into southern Manitoba.

Instead, the flow has been oriented from northwestern Alberta southeastward into central Manitoba. That subtle shift in trajectory has created a pronounced divide in temperatures across the region. Communities north of this corridor have been dealing with below-average readings, while areas to the south continue to see milder, above-normal conditions.

More weather coverage: Winter precipitation below normal in southern Prairies

At the start of this forecast period, Arctic high pressure is firmly established over the northern Prairies, while an upper ridge is positioned over the western United States. The interaction between these two features is producing a westerly to slightly northwesterly flow across much of the region. The outcome is a strong south-to-north temperature gradient. Northern areas are seeing daytime highs stuck in the -20°C range, while southern communities are reaching 5°C. That’s a significant contrast and a reminder that winter still has a firm grip on parts of the region.

As is typical during the transition toward spring, medium-range forecasting becomes more challenging. Model guidance is hinting at a somewhat active pattern ahead, but the dominant northwesterly flow appears likely to persist. If that scenario holds, the bulk of the Arctic air should remain north of most regions, limiting the chance and duration of any early spring cold spells in southern areas.

Alberta

Spring forecasting always brings added uncertainty, and the presence of a weak northwesterly flow lowers confidence slightly in the seven-day outlook. Current models show Arctic high pressure dominating northern Canada while an upper ridge strengthens over the northwestern United States. The back and forth influence of these two systems will determine where the dividing line between mild and cold air sets up across the province.

North of the frontal boundary, expect mainly sunny skies and colder conditions with daytime highs near -10°C. South of that boundary, skies will be sunny to partly cloudy, and temperatures will climb into the 5°C to 10°C range.

As we head into the weekend, the overall pattern begins to shift. A strong low-pressure system is forecast to track across the southern Arctic, pushing a cold front southward late Sunday into Monday. This front will bring some light snow, with accumulations generally modest.

Southern Alberta could see slightly higher totals if a secondary low develops along the boundary. Current guidance suggests that such a feature may briefly intensify over southern Alberta before quickly tracking east, delivering a short-lived but more focused burst of snow.

Behind the front, temperatures are expected to trend back toward near- to slightly below-average values, with the northwesterly flow once again becoming the dominant feature.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

These provinces begin the forecast period positioned between Arctic high pressure to the north and an area of low pressure over the central United States. This setup typically results in partly cloudy skies and near-average temperatures. Extreme southern regions may see light snow, or even a brief period of freezing rain, depending on the exact path of the U.S. system.

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Over the weekend, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are expected to sit between larger systems, giving relatively quiet weather. Expect a mix of sun and cloud with daytime highs ranging from -5°C to 0°C. Winds should remain light, making conditions feel more manageable despite the cooler readings.

Late in the weekend, attention shifts westward as low pressure is forecast to develop over southern Alberta. If this system forms as projected, it will move quickly across southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. At this point, the most likely outcome appears to be a fast-moving band of snow capable of producing around 5 cm of accumulation in affected areas.

Looking further ahead, there are still few signs of sustained spring warmth. While brief mild spells are possible south of the northwesterly flow boundary, a consistent move toward above-average temperatures does not yet look likely.

The post Prairie forecast: A north-south temperature split as spring struggles to move in appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Highlights

• A series of lows, and the cold and warm air masses that come with them, will make for a temperature rollercoaster on the Prairies.
• Alberta temperatures will drop towards the weekend with chances of snow in some areas before temperatures begin to warm again early next week.
• Saskatchewan and Manitoba can expect mild temperatures before cold air briefly moves in over the weekend.

Forecast

Last week’s forecast unfolded largely as the weather models suggested. They correctly indicated an area of low pressure crossing the Prairies early this week. While the exact track of the system differed slightly from earlier projections, overall snowfall totals were close to what had been anticipated.

For this forecast period, we begin with one area of low pressure over Ontario and a second low developing in the Gulf of Alaska. Between these two systems, a weak ridge of Arctic high pressure is sliding southeast through Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Models show the Gulf of Alaska system strengthening and spinning off a couple of additional lows over the next week. These lows are forecast to move into the southern Yukon or northern Alberta before tracking southeast toward northwestern Ontario.

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As these systems develop and move southeast, they will draw milder air northward ahead of them. Behind each low, colder Arctic air will surge south again. This setup points to a temperature rollercoaster, with warm and cold air masses taking turns across the region. Precipitation will generally be confined to areas along and north of each system’s track.

The first low is expected to form over northern Alberta on Wednesday and quickly track toward southern Manitoba by Thursday. At this point, it appears relatively weak and set to bring mainly light flurries.

A second, somewhat stronger low is forecast to move into northern Alberta on Thursday and track toward northwestern Ontario by Friday. Snowfall with this system is expected to be in the 5 to 10 cm range, primarily across northern Alberta, north-central Saskatchewan, and Manitoba’s northern Interlake region.

Colder air will push south behind this second system, bringing a return to below-average temperatures for the weekend. However, the cold spell looks brief. A third low is forecast to develop over northern Alberta on Monday, which will once again force Arctic air northward. This system is expected to follow a similar track, bringing another shift back toward cooler conditions around midweek.

Looking further ahead, there are no strong signals in the models suggesting a sustained push of mild spring air. Instead, guidance points toward a generally cool and somewhat unsettled pattern developing. As always, spring is one of the most volatile times of the year, so adjustments to the forecast are likely.

Alberta

A weak area of low pressure will bring cloudy to partly cloudy skies to northern Alberta on Wednesday, along with some light snow. This system will quickly move east, only to be followed by a second low Thursday into early Friday. The second system appears somewhat stronger and should bring accumulating snow to northern regions.

Temperatures across northern Alberta will hover near -5 C on Wednesday and Thursday before dropping sharply Friday as a cold front pushes south behind the low.

Across southern Alberta, Wednesday and Thursday will feature sunny skies and mild temperatures, with daytime highs ranging from 5 to 10 C. Temperatures will fall Friday as the cold front advances southward. There is also the potential for some snow across southwestern regions, which will need monitoring.

The weekend will bring partly cloudy skies and colder temperatures, especially on Saturday. Daytime highs across southern Alberta are forecast near -8 C, with central and northern regions seeing highs between -12 and -15 C.

As a third low begins to organize Sunday into Monday, milder air will once again push northward. Daytime highs should moderate to above-freezing values by Monday. This system may bring clouds and light snow to northern areas on Monday, followed by another push of cooler air Tuesday and Wednesday as the low exits to the east.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

After a brief shot of cold air earlier this week, temperatures are expected to rebound quickly. Daytime highs across Saskatchewan should climb to near or above freezing on Wednesday, with Manitoba following on Thursday. A weak low accompanying the milder air will bring cloudy to partly cloudy skies and the chance of flurries.

A second low is forecast to track across north-central Saskatchewan into the northern Interlake region of Manitoba on Friday. Snowfall amounts of around 5 cm are possible, with most accumulation mostly staying north of the main agricultural areas.

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Once this system moves into northwestern Ontario, Arctic high pressure will slide south on Saturday. Daytime highs are expected to fall into the -15 C range, with overnight lows near -25 C.

Temperatures will begin moderating across Saskatchewan on Sunday as the Arctic high shifts east and a third low develops over northern Alberta. Daytime highs should approach the freezing mark across Saskatchewan on Sunday and Manitoba on Monday.

This third system is expected to follow a similar track through north-central regions on Tuesday. At this time, there does not appear to be a strong surge of Arctic air behind it, meaning daytime highs should remain close to the freezing point.

The post Prairie forecast: All aboard the temperature rollercoaster appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Highlights

• After a snowy start to the period, colder Artic air will settle in across the Prairies and drop temperatures near to or below the seasonal average
• Alberta could see temperatures begin to moderate early next week
• While colder air has already began to push into Saskatchewan, Manitoba will see mild weather continue for a couple more days

Overview

As the weather models were indicating as early as last week, we are now seeing a clear shift in our weather pattern from unseasonably warm and dry to more seasonable cold. This comes with a snowy start and additional chances for snow over the next week or two.

Following a mild stretch, a strong and broad area of low pressure developed early this week over western North America. Models had been hinting at this system in last week’s forecast, and as is often the case, some of the details evolved.

The first low developed over Alberta. This brought heavy snow to central regions on Tuesday. That system was later replaced by a second low that formed over Montana later on Tuesday and pushed east-northeast. This spread widespread snow across southern and central Saskatchewan on Tuesday afternoon and into Manitoba later in the day.

This second low is forecast to track across North Dakota on Wednesday, bringing additional snow to southern Manitoba. Meanwhile, snow will linger back into Saskatchewan due to a trailing trough of low pressure associated with the initial Alberta system.

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Snow is expected to taper off across Saskatchewan late Wednesday, while Manitoba could continue to see periods of light snow and flurries into Thursday before the system and its associated trough move off to the east.

Behind this low, colder Arctic air has already moved into Alberta and central Saskatchewan and will continue pushing eastward. By the weekend, all Prairie regions should return to more seasonable mid-February temperatures. Expect daytime highs in the -10°C to -15°C range, with overnight lows around -20°C and a few locations dipping closer to -25°C.

These cooler temperatures are expected to persist through the weekend and into early next week. Models are also indicating another area of low pressure moving in off the Pacific early next week and tracking along the U.S.–Canada border.

Once again, this system will need monitoring, as it carries the potential for additional snowfall. At this point, most of the accumulation appears likely to be confined to the extreme southern Prairies, with amounts near 5 cm.

Alberta

Most of the snow has now moved out of Alberta as the parent low and associated trough shift east. In its wake, cold air has settled in, setting the stage for a prolonged period of near-average or below-average temperatures.

Arctic high pressure will dominate over the next several days, bringing sunny to partly cloudy skies and cold conditions. Daytime highs are expected to range from -10°C to -15°C, with overnight lows falling between -20°C and -25°C.

Early next week, models suggest another low-pressure system will move into southern British Columbia before sliding eastward. This could bring a slight moderation in temperatures, with daytime highs forecast to improve to the -6°C to -9°C range. Most precipitation from this system appears likely to remain confined to southern regions, but as always, it will require close monitoring.

Looking further ahead, models continue to show temperatures remaining near to below-average through at least the end of the month.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

This forecast period begins with snow and blowing snow across much of Saskatchewan and Manitoba as a low tracks through the Dakotas, dragging a trailing trough northwestward into northern Alberta. Most regions are expected to receive between 10 and 20 cm of snow from this system.

Southwestern Saskatchewan appears likely to miss out on the heaviest snowfall, and current indications suggest southeastern Manitoba may see closer to 5 cm, as persistent ridging to the northeast deflects some of the heavier snow south and west.

Snow should begin tapering off across Saskatchewan late Wednesday, while Manitoba may see lingering light snow into Thursday before skies begin to clear Friday.

More weather coverage: Prairie weather all starts with the sun

Temperatures in Manitoba will remain relatively mild on Wednesday and Thursday before colder Arctic air pushes in Friday. In Saskatchewan, the colder air has already begun arriving, with daytime highs near -15°C across central regions and around -10°C in the south, with temperatures likely falling through the day.

Arctic high pressure will dominate the weekend and early next week, bringing sunny to partly cloudy skies and cold temperatures. Expect daytime highs between -12°C and -16°C, with overnight lows dropping into the low to mid -20s.

Another area of low pressure is forecast to track across the southern Prairies next Tuesday and Wednesday. As is typical at this range, confidence remains low, but the system bears watching. It could bring milder temperatures and additional snowfall to southern regions.

Looking further ahead, models continue to indicate average to below-average temperatures across Saskatchewan and Manitoba through at least early March.

The post Prairie forecast: Cold weather settles in after snowy start appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Highlights

• Weather models show the current weak, westerly flow holding in place, which means more quiet and mild weather
• Alberta should see warm conditions with little for precipitation before cooler conditions return mid next week
• Manitoba and Saskatchewan can expect generally sunny to partly cloudy skies and above-average temperatures
• Lack of precipitation is becoming a concern in some areas

Overview

If you enjoyed last week’s weather, you will likely appreciate this week’s forecast as well. Very little has changed in the overall pattern across much of western Canada.

Last week, an upper ridge brought near-record-breaking temperatures to parts of Alberta and western Saskatchewan before weakening and sliding off to the southeast. That shift finally helped dislodge the cold air entrenched over the eastern Prairies, allowing Manitoba to see above-freezing temperatures once again.

With the ridge collapsing, the Prairies were left under a weak westerly flow off the Pacific rather than the more typical mid-winter northwesterly flow from the Arctic. The result has been light to moderate winds and temperatures running above average.

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While there were a few light dustings of snow, occasional periods of freezing rain and even the odd rain shower, overall precipitation amounts remained minimal.

For this forecast period, weather models continue to show that weak westerly flow holding in place. That means more quiet weather, with temperatures generally running several degrees above the long-term average for this time of year. The main storm track will stay well to our north, while weak high pressure dominates much of the Prairies. All of this adds up to a relatively short and straightforward forecast.

Alberta

Once again, the forecast is short and to the point. I would like to say short and sweet, but with many areas wishing for snow or any meaningful precipitation, there is unfortunately little relief in sight.

A weak westerly flow combined with a broad but weak area of high pressure will dominate this forecast period. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies and above-average temperatures. Daytime highs across southern Alberta should range from 7 to 12 C, with overnight lows between -5 and 0 C. Central and northern regions can expect daytime highs in the 2 to 6 C range, with overnight lows near -5 C. These mild conditions are expected to persist through the weekend.

The main uncertainty over this forecast period involves cloud cover. At this time of year, under this type of pattern, low cloud can occasionally develop, particularly over areas that still have snow cover.

Early next week, models are hinting at a potential shift in the weather pattern as a strong area of low pressure pushes into the northwestern United States. If this system develops as projected, it is expected to gradually organize and track eastward around midweek.

Most of the precipitation currently looks to remain south of the province, with only occasional light snow possible across far southern regions. Behind this system, cooler air will filter southward. This should bring temperatures back toward more seasonable values by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

The forecast for Saskatchewan and Manitoba is similarly brief and straightforward. While the mild temperatures are welcome for mid-February, the continued lack of significant precipitation is beginning to raise some concerns.

With weak high pressure and a light westerly flow in place, expect generally sunny to partly cloudy skies and above-average temperatures. Daytime highs should range from 0 to +5 C, with the warmest readings across western Saskatchewan and the coolest across eastern Manitoba.

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These mild conditions, along with relatively light winds, are expected to continue through the long weekend, making for pleasant conditions for those heading outdoors.

Looking ahead to early next week, models indicate a strong but broad area of low pressure developing over the American Northwest. At this time, most of the system’s energy is forecast to remain south of the border. However, this far out, details can change, and it will be worth monitoring.

This system may mark the beginning of a transition toward a more active weather pattern as we move into the second half of the month.

The post Prairie forecast: Mild pattern holds across the Prairies appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Highlights

• Warm, spring-like temperatures to continue across Alberta
• Above-zero temperatures will arrive in Saskatchewan
• Manitoba will benefit from milder temperatures with chances of light precipitation

Overview

As forecasted, we definitely saw the east-west temperature gradient across the Prairies this past forecast period. A strengthening ridge of high pressure brought very warm temperatures to much of Alberta last week, with some locations pushing or even breaking records.

Meanwhile across Manitoba, while temperatures did moderate slightly over the weekend, persistent winds made it feel like the region remained locked in the deep freeze. Another blast of Arctic air on Monday sent overnight lows plunging back toward the -30° C mark.

Saskatchewan experienced a mix of both the mild Alberta conditions and the colder Manitoba air, but overall saw temperatures close to seasonal late-January averages.

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For this forecast period, the mid-winter warm spell looks set to continue across Alberta as the upper ridge strengthens early on. This ridge is forecast to build eastward and then gradually shift southeast as it begins to weaken early next week. This pattern will help moderate temperatures across the eastern Prairies while also keeping most regions relatively dry.

Early next week, the ridge is expected to collapse toward the southeast as an area of low pressure moves into central Alberta from the Pacific late Saturday or Sunday. This low will track eastward across the southern Prairies early next week. This will bring a swath of snow, possibly mixed with rain or freezing rain across central regions.

Cooler, more seasonable air will slide southward into Alberta behind the low. However, temperatures are still expected to remain near or slightly above average. Across Saskatchewan and Manitoba, temperatures should continue to trend above average, with no signs of a major Arctic outbreak.

Alberta

Early spring-like weather looks set to continue for the next several days as a fairly strong upper ridge remains in place across the province. With plenty of sunshine, daytime highs are expected to reach the low to mid-teens across southern regions, while central areas see highs around the 10° C mark.

These mild temperatures should persist through Saturday or Sunday before an area of low pressure moves in from the Pacific and pushes the ridge southeastward. This system will bring some precipitation to far northern regions late Saturday into Sunday.

As the low moves eastward, a cold front is expected to drop southward Sunday or early Monday, bringing cooler temperatures and a brief period of light snow or rain — depending on timing.

Daytime highs are expected to fall back to around the freezing mark by Monday, with temperatures hovering near that level through Tuesday and Wednesday.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Saskatchewan will see above-freezing temperatures arrive as early as Wednesday as the Alberta ridge expands eastward. Daytime highs are expected to warm to around 3° C on Wednesday before climbing into the 5° to 8° C range from Thursday through to Saturday or Sunday.

Manitoba should finally see above-freezing temperatures return on Thursday. However, a passing area of Arctic high pressure is expected to clip the region on Friday, temporarily dropping temperatures again. Milder air is forecast to return over the weekend, with daytime highs expected to range from 0° to 4° C.

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An area of low pressure is forecast to track from central Alberta to southeastern Manitoba by Monday or Tuesday. This system will bring a mixed bag of precipitation to areas north of its track. At this time, precipitation amounts appear relatively light. Temperatures will cool slightly once the system passes, with daytime highs on Monday and Tuesday expected to range between -5° and -2° C.

Looking further ahead, the weather models are showing relatively mild conditions persisting right through to Valentine’s Day and the February long weekend with no significant storm systems expected.

The post Prairie forecast: Above-average temperatures across Prairies appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Highlights

• Temperatures will moderate across the Prairies, though a clear west-to-east gradient will remain.
• Alberta can expect mild temperatures, possibly even climbing into the mid-teens across southern Alberta in the first week of February.
• Most of the Artic air should miss Saskatchewan on its way to Manitoba.
• Manitoba should see a return to cold temperatures, though not as extreme as last week.

Overview

Once again, the weather models performed well with last week’s forecast. Arctic air dominated much of Saskatchewan and Manitoba as expected. This delivering the coldest air of the winter to those regions. Across Alberta, the cold air pushed into central and northern areas as predicted, but southern regions, while cooler, largely missed the deep freeze.

That said, the forecast was not perfect. It missed a couple of weak systems that, when combined with strong Arctic high pressure, resulted in dangerous wind chills across much of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

The models also underestimated just how cold the air masses were. I failed to fully account for how little wind is needed at those temperatures to create hazardous wind chill values.

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For this forecast period, temperatures will moderate across the Prairies, though a clear west-to-east gradient will remain.

Western regions will see the mildest conditions with cooler air persisting the farther east you go. A large upper low over Hudson Bay is forecast to slowly weaken and drift southward during this period. Arctic high pressure is expected to drop southward along the western edge of this upper low early in the forecast. This should be south of the border by the weekend.

To the west, weak upper-level ridging is forecast to develop, with a couple of disorganized areas of low-pressure riding over the ridge over the next week or so. Overall, this pattern supports colder conditions in Manitoba to start, milder weather in Saskatchewan, and a return to above-average temperatures for Alberta.

Alberta

Warm and relatively dry conditions are expected throughout this forecast period. A weak upper-level ridge will attempt to build across the region, though it may struggle initially as couple of weak impulses move in from the Pacific. The first impulse is forecast to arrive Saturday, followed by another on Monday.

Both systems look weak. They’re expected to bring cloudy to partly-cloudy skies along with the chance of flurries or brief periods of light snow or rain, depending on timing.

Temperatures will remain mild. Southern regions can expect daytime highs in the 4 to 8°C range, with overnight lows near -3°C. Central and northern regions will be slightly cooler, with daytime highs between -5° and 0°C and overnight lows around -8°C.

As we move into the first week of February, models show the upper ridge strengthening across Alberta. Should this scenario verify, daytime highs across southern Alberta could climb into the low to mid-teens, while central and northern regions warm into the 3° to 8°C range.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

These two regions almost need to be handled separately during this forecast period.

Saskatchewan is expected to see fairly mild mid-winter weather for most of the period. The majority of the province should avoid the coldest Arctic air as it slides south through Manitoba. Only the far eastern areas are expected to be affected.

Elsewhere, expect sunny to partly cloudy skies with daytime highs warming into the -4° to -8°C range by Thursday or Friday and overnight lows near -12°C. These temperatures should hold through the weekend and into early next week. In fact, temperatures early next week may approach the zero-degree mark, particularly across western Saskatchewan.

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A weak impulse is forecast to move through Saturday and Sunday, bringing increased cloud cover and the chance of some light snow.

Across Manitoba, the main weather story is the return to cold following a brief moderation earlier this week. Arctic high pressure is forecast to drop south through the province on Thursday and Friday. This will bring colder conditions, though not as extreme as last week. Daytime highs are expected to be near -20°C, with overnight lows falling to around -27°C.

Over the weekend, temperatures will moderate as the high shifts south and a weak impulse moves in from the west. This system will bring increasing cloud cover late Saturday, with a chance of flurries on Sunday. Daytime highs Sunday and into early next week should moderate into the -7° to -10°C range, with overnight lows near -15°C.

A second disturbance is forecast to track through Manitoba next Tuesday or Wednesday, which will bring potential for some light snow. This system remains several days out, and confidence is low at this time.

The post Prairie forecast: Warmer temperatures but east Prairies still cool appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.