For winter soft wheat, France’s main cereal crop, the ministry now expects the 2026 area to reach 4.59 million hectares (11.3 million acres), up slightly from its initial projection of 4.56 million in December, it said on Tuesday.

The revised estimate was up 2.8 per cent from the area harvested in 2025, though 0.3 per cent below the average of the past five years, the ministry said in a report.

For winter rapeseed, the country’s largest oilseed crop, it raised its estimate for this year’s area to 1.37 million hectares (3.39 million acres) from 1.34 million projected in December.

That was now eight per cent above the 2025 area and 11.6 per cent above the five-year average.

Analysts have anticipated an increase in rapeseed planting in France and across Europe given more favourable prices than for cereals, as well as strong yields in last summer’s harvest.

Favourable autumn weather had also raised expectations that the soft wheat area would hold steady, despite falling prices.

Among other winter crops, the ministry pegged the 2026 winter barley area at 1.26 million hectares (3.11 million acres), compared to 1.23 million previously and up 5.3 per cent on the year.

For winter durum wheat, however, the estimated 2026 area was reduced slightly, to 196,000 hectares (484,327 acres) from 199,000 forecast in December. That left the projected area marginally below last year’s level and nearly 16 per cent below the five-year average.

Wheat and rapeseed are almost entirely sown as winter crops in France, whereas barley production includes a significant portion of spring-grown crop.

Winter crops were generally in good condition so far, the ministry added.

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In a supply and demand outlook, the office increased its forecast of French soft wheat shipments within the EU in 2025/26 to 7.51 million tons from 7.39 million previously and 6.8 million tons last season.

The office mainly raised projected sales to Germany, Ireland, Spain and the Netherlands, FranceAgriMer grain analyst Habasse Diagouraga told reporters.

He did not have details for changes in forecast exports outside the EU but said sales to Morocco were still supporting French wheat exports.

“However, we expect these to slow down there since we already saw first shipments of Argentine wheat,” Diagouraga said.

Argentina is forecast to harvest a record wheat crop that has created extra competition for the Moroccan market.

FranceAgriMer raised its outlook for soft wheat stocks at the end of 2025/26 to 2.80 million tons from 2.74 million. This is 12.7 per cent above last season’s volume.

For barley, FranceAgriMer pegged 2025/26 ending stocks at 1.55 million tons versus 1.46 million projected last month, 34.3 per cent above last season.

After large shipments to China in the summer, France continues to export big volumes of barley to Saudi Arabia, Diagouraga said.

The 2025/26 maize ending stocks are expected at 2.16 million tons, up from 1.86 million forecast last month but 1.4 per cent below last season.

— Reporting by Sybille de La Hamaide

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Highly pathogenic avian influenza, commonly called bird flu, is a seasonal disease spread by migratory birds. It has led to the culling of tens of millions of poultry worldwide in recent years, disrupting production and raising fears of human transmission.

“This decree … was issued following evidence of infection among migratory wild birds in Europe, including France, and the confirmation of several outbreaks in poultry farms,” the agriculture ministry said in the government’s official journal.

So far, two bird flu outbreaks have been detected on poultry farms and three in backyard flocks, the ministry said in the decree. A first case had been detected in mid-October at a pheasant and partridge breeding farm in northern France.

The change in status will take effect on Wednesday, Oct, 22.

The upgrade to risk status in the seasonal assessment is kicking in earlier than previous years, taking effect in October compared to November last year and December in 2023.

— Reporting by Gus Trompiz and Sybille de La Hamaide

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Lumpy skin disease is a virus spread by insects that affects cattle and buffalo, causing blisters and reducing milk production. It does not pose a risk to humans but often leads to trade restrictions and severe economic losses.

The measures will take effect on October 18 and be valid until November 4. They will be lifted on November 5, if the health situation allows, the ministry said.

Outbreaks on the rise

After waning this summer, outbreaks of lumpy skin disease picked up in France this month, spreading from the Alps to the Jura and Ain regions in eastern France. Three outbreaks of the disease have been found near the Spanish border this week.

“The very recent emergence of several isolated outbreaks (one in Ain, three in Jura, and three in Occitanie) is a cause for concern and is probably the result of animal movements, some of which were illegal,” the ministry said.

During a visit to Jura, French Agriculture Minister Annie Genevard said the future of French livestock farming was at stake.

“We are at a critical moment. It is essential we keep up our efforts to protect the French cattle herd,” she said. “Let’s rise to the challenge together, as we have since last June.”

Disease new to Western Europe

The virus is historically present in Africa and the Middle East but had been absent from Western Europe until last June, when a first outbreak occurred on Italy’s Sardinia island, followed by France. Spain reported a first case last week. Canada has never seen a case of the disease according to the Canadian Food Inspection Agency.

Cases have been found this week in three communes of the Pyrenees-Orientales in southwestern France – La Bastide, Oms, and Valmanya – prompting a mandatory vaccination campaign in the surrounding area, the farm ministry said in a statement.

The affected villages are close together and about 30 kilometres (18.6 miles) from the Spanish border.

“We can imagine that there is a link with Spain but we are still investigating,” Genevard said.

— Reporting by Sybille de La Hamaide

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The office estimated that 62 per cent of the maize crop was in good or excellent condition by Monday, down from 65 per cent a week earlier.

The latest score was also below the 76 per cent at the same time last year and the lowest for the week since 2022, another year marked by a very hot, dry summer.

After maize field conditions stabilized in late July after the return of rain, crops have endured more hot and dry weather this month, with temperatures rising to about 40 degrees Celsius across the south for several days last week.

Showers this week have brought cooler temperatures, though analysts said the change in weather may be too late to benefit maize crops before the harvest.

France’s agriculture ministry forecast in early August that this year’s production will fall by more than five per cent from last year, with heat and drought expected to cut yields and outweigh increased planting.

The recent hot spell helped farmers to wrap up wheat and barley harvesting after the rain in late July slowed field work.

Farmers had finished harvesting the soft wheat crop by August 18, having completed 99 per cent of the harvest a week earlier, FranceAgriMer said.

— Reporting by Alessandro Parodi, Olivier Cherfan and Gus Trompiz.

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That would still be well below the average 2017-2023 level of 34.96 million tons, it said in a statement.

Why it matters: France is a major wheat exporter.

While the national yield improved to 7.44 tonnes per hectare, 3.4 per cent above the 2017-2023 average, the smaller cultivated area of 4.49 million hectares (11.10 million acres) weighed on overall production, Argus said.

Analysts and traders have been expecting French production of soft wheat to rebound sharply this year after a disastrous harvest in 2024.

The French farm ministry last week pegged the country’s 2025 soft wheat production at 32.6 million metric tons, up 27 per cent from last year and in line with market expectations.

France’s wheat crop had faced excessive winter rains and mixed spring weather. Despite improved rainfall in May and favorable sunlight during flowering, grain filling was constrained by hot weather in June.

The quality of the 2025 crop will meet export standards, with most protein levels exceeding 11 per cent, good specific weight and low humidity levels, Argus said.

Argus’ estimate was based on a survey carried out on July 17-22.

— Reporting by Sybille de La Hamaide

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Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), commonly known as bird flu, is a viral disease that has ravaged poultry flocks worldwide in recent years, notably in France and the United States. There has also been evidence of transmission beyond birds, including dairy cows and farm workers in the U.S.

France requires vaccination of ducks to try to limit the spread of the disease, making it the world’s first large exporter to launch a nationwide vaccination campaign against bird flu.

But some countries are concerned that vaccinated birds pose a risk as they may not show signs of infection, meaning it is impossible to determine whether the virus is in a flock.

“After more than a year of negotiations, French authorities have succeeded in convincing the U.S. and Canadian authorities of the safety of HPAI vaccination,” the agriculture ministry said in a statement.

“They have therefore announced the lifting of restrictions on unvaccinated poultry and poultry products/by-products from unvaccinated flocks, while ‘maintaining the safety of agricultural trade’,” it added.

The United States also lifted its embargo on exports of ducks and duck products from other European Union member states, the French ministry said.

French health authorities were in contact with their U.S. and Canadian counterparts to finalise the practicalities for resuming exports of avian genetics (hatching eggs and day-old chicks) to these destinations.

While French poultry exports to the U.S. and Canada are very small, shipments of avian genetics are more common.

— Reporting by Sybille de La Hamaide

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Over the last decade, Russia has become a major agriculture exporter and is striving to become a global agricultural superpower. However, it remains reliant on seed imports, primarily from Western countries.

In November, the Russian Agriculture Ministry said it planned to gradually decrease seed imports from Western countries.

The national food security strategy mandates that domestically produced seeds to constitute 75 per cent of total demand, and while figures vary depending on the seed type, they are significantly below this target. The lowest share if domestically produced sugar beet seeds, which stands at 8 per cent.

The watchdog attributed the ban on one company in each of the four countries to the discovery of pests such as sunflower phomopsis, corn leaf spot, and the brown marmorated stink bug in imported seeds.

The targeted companies are the Hungarian unit of the agrichemicals and seeds group Syngenta, which is Chinese-owned and integrated into Sinochem Holdings Corp, France’s Lidea, Turkey’s GLS Tohumculuk and Chile’s Pinto Piga Seeds.

In 2023, Russia introduced import quotas for sunflower and corn seeds, but these quotas were not fully enforced this year as Russian farmers have switched to domestically produced seeds.

— Reporting by Olga Popova and Gleb Bryanski

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The Commission now estimates production of common wheat, or soft wheat, this season at 114.6 million tonnes, down from 116.1 million predicted a month ago and nine per cent below last year’s crop.

It is also the lowest volume since 2012/13, bringing the Commission into line with other recent forecasts of the EU’s main cereal crop.

The EU harvest has been dented in particular by the smallest crop in France in 40 years, as well as a sharp fall in German production as the bloc’s two biggest wheat growers endured repeated heavy rain in the past year.

In monthly supply and demand data, the Commission increased its projection of EU soft wheat imports in 2024/25 by one million tonnes to seven million but left unchanged its soft wheat export forecast for this season at 26 million tonnes.

It lowered its forecast for 2024/25 usable production of maize in the EU to 60.1 million tonnes from 61.6 million in late August, now four per cent below last season’s level.

Maize crops, harvesting of which is under way, have been hurt by summer drought and heatwaves in the east of the bloc.

Estimated EU barley production in 2024/25 was also revised down, to 50.4 million tonnes from 51.3 million a month ago, though that was six per cent above last year’s drought-hit crop.

In oilseeds, the Commission lowered its estimate of the bloc’s rapeseed output this season to 17.2 million tonnes from 18.0 million, nearly 13 per cent below last year’s level.

For sunflower seed, which has also suffered from drought in eastern Europe, the Commission cut its production forecast to 9.5 million tonnes from 9.9 million, three per cent below the previous crop.

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Starch and its derivatives, made from wheat, maize, potatoes and tapioca, are used in products from ice cream to cosmetics, paints, pills and cardboard due to their sweetening, thickening and texturizing properties.

The French soft wheat harvest, set to be the lowest in 40 years due to excess rain, has also showed poor quality levels, including very low and heterogeneous specific weights, a measure of the size of grains.

“The smaller grains will pose challenges at the industrial level in our factories that will not be easy to resolve,” Marie-Laure Empinet, head of French starch producer group USIPA, said at the lobby’s general assembly.

Small grains have less starch and more cellulose, which is more aggressive for machines and can clog filters. The lower level of starch also means more co-products to handle, she said.

The additional work and potential damage to machines will increase the risks of slowdown, breakdown or replacement, Empinet said.

The four starch companies in France, which include French producers Tereos and Roquette and U.S. giants Cargill and Archer Daniels Midland have decided to lower their standards and accept smaller grains that would have been turned down in a normal harvest, she said.

The additional costs and problems come after starch makers in Europe had already been forced to reduce output and halt some factories due to a drop in demand in the past year.

The French starch industry’s turnover rose 17 per cent to 3.9 billion euros (US$4.35 billion) in 2023 due to higher prices but volumes dropped significantly, with falls of 12 per cent for the food sector and 18 per cent for the non-food industry including pharmaceuticals, chemistry, and paper.

Results for the current year were still very uncertain with a rebound in demand still very timid, costs that remain at high levels and strong competition from imports which rose 13% last year to 1 billion euros, USIPA said.

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