Chuck Penner, founder of LeftField Commodity Research, spoke at the 2026 Canadian Crops Convention about supply and demand in the Canadian grains sector and how a strong 2025 could lead to a complex 2026.

WHY IT MATTERS: Canadian farmers will soon be planting the 2026 crops, with large old crop supplies complicating the market outlook.

“We talk in ag markets always about cycles,” said Penner. “The market is cycling. And so right now, we’re in a supply-heavy situation. But is that going to continue? I would argue ‘no.’”

“What we have is this comfortable carryover,” he continued noting that can lead to a complacent mindset in grain markets.

Canada produced an aggregated 106 million tonnes of grains, oilseeds, pulses and other crops in 2025, 10 million more than the previous year.

“So, what are we doing with that grain?” Penner asked.

Farmer deliveries are already up three million tonnes over last year. Exports are at 25 million tonnes, up from the five-year average by around 2.5 million.

“That’s good, but it still doesn’t dispose of 10 million tonnes more production,” Penner said. “If we keep this pace up, and there are some really good signs that we will keep this pace up, then we will work that down to some degree.”

Despite what Penner referred to as a “heavy-supply mindset” hanging over the sector, prices are still moving, and he expects them to continue firming up.

Many crops see seasonal price peaks in the spring, but Penner cautioned that those commodities will start to tip over in early summer “and everybody’s going to freak out and talk about the heavy supplies again.”

One problem now is there is not much urgency in attracting acreage.

In tighter supply years, such as after the 2021 drought, buyers were desperate and some started contracting for 2022 new crop in October and November already. However, this year, the sentiment is “we’ll buy it when we need it,” said Penner.

Resolving heavy supply

For some major crops like barley, canola and soybeans, stocks-to-use ratios are wide, but Penner said those ratios will likely be a bit lower at the end of 2026-27.

“There’s a key reason for that,” he said. “What happens when we drop back to either average or to trend yields? It basically wipes out. It’s a far bigger influence on the supply situation for next year than acreage shifts.”

While acreage shifts are interesting, a return to average yields in Western Canada after the bumper crops of 2025-26 would “do a whole lot in terms of resolving the heavy supply situation that we have,” said Penner.

“If we move to an average yield or even a trend yield in those major crops, the supply numbers get close to the five-year average,” he said adding that supplies of oats, corn and soybeans may even become tight.

What to plant this year?

Penner said his recommendation for 2026 was to plant oats.

“If you all rush out and plant oats now, of course that effect is gone. But barley and durum supplies should remain comfortable. It’s the pulses and special crops that are going to take a couple of years to really resolve the heavy supply situation.”

Currently, he said global supplies will favour the buyer.

“2025-26 was a good year globally. No question,” he said. “The question is, can it repeat?”

Penner offered general market thoughts on crops for 2026.

Wheat

Wheat saw record global and Canadian production with prices remaining relatively flat. Penner pointed out wheat is almost never touched by trade disruptions or tariffs. Canada is also exporting durum almost at last year’s record pace, even with strong European and North African crops.

Barley

Barley had a record yield last year with the largest Canadian crop since 2020-21, and prices are rising. Penner said Canada has strong barley exports to countries like China, Japan and Saudi Arabia.

Oats

Penner said the main concern with oats is a weaker export pace. Other export markets like Australia and the U.S., which saw its biggest oat crop in over 10 years, could challenge Canada. He said he thought soft prices could discourage acreage in 2026 and leave Canada with “some really tight supplies of oats.”

Canola

Canola production and yields were strong globally, leading to increased supplies, but according to Penner, “the demand side is the bigger picture.” With the market more certain following U.S. biofuels and potential tariffs, prices have continued to rise. He added if canola drops back to average levels, supplies will tighten and demand will strengthen.

Peas

Peas also had near-record yields in Canada which, combined with a strong Russian crop, have led to a global glut. Though imports from India are not what they have been, Penner said other buyers like China have also stepped in. He said there is a sizable carryover into 2026, especially for green peas.

Lentils

Penner said demand is fairly static for green lentils but could be stronger for red lentils. On both fronts, he said it must get stronger to deal with supply, but it is “hard to see that happening.” He added there is a huge supply of green lentils now hanging over the market, but “the red picture will be more balanced.”

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Terry Reilly, an independent analyst, said soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade is the commodity most closely following the lead of crude oil, with the latter almost touching US$120 per barrel earlier this week. The May soyoil contract closed at 67.16 U.S. cents per pound on March 11, up 3.57 cents or 5.6 per cent from the week before.

While corn, soybean and wheat prices won’t be as closely tied to crude oil as soyoil, Reilly said their movement will still be determined elsewhere.

“The outside markets will continue to drive the markets for at least until when the conflict starts to wind down,” he added. “Fertilizer is going to be heavily impacted and it will drive up the costs for farmers across the globe. It’s shifting some ideas and we could see less acres go into the ground this spring across North America.”

There was also speculation the United States Environmental Protection Agency may submit its 2026 renewal fuel standard later this week, which could increase the need for corn (ethanol) and soybeans (biodiesel). However, Reilly doesn’t anticipate any increased demand.

“Currently, the prices of some of the feed stocks like canola oil going to California or (used cooking oil) and tallow, their prices are at a discount to soybean oil,” he explained. “I don’t see any greater demand for alternative fuel sources, but no doubt we’ll probably be blending as much ethanol as we can.”

Reilly added he was surprised to see the U.S. Department of Agriculture trim projected soyoil use for biofuel by 800 million pounds at 14 billion in its monthly supply/demand estimates released on March 10. But there were little changes to projected U.S. corn, soybean and wheat stocks. While Reilly thought corn and soybean exports were “on the low side”, he believes the trade is more focused on new crop plantings.

“We still have several months to go until the end of the regular crop year,” Reilly said. “But either way, U.S. soybean stocks are expected to be pretty tight at the end of the season as China continues to buy U.S. beans.”

The war in Iran will continue to leave the trade guessing and keep prices higher, Reilly stated, adding that some analysts believe crude oil could surpass US$150/barrel. However, prices should stabilize once the war ends.

“I think after things start to cool down a little bit, I’d look for prices to get lower,” he said.

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Farmers are expected to stick with the 18.8 million spring wheat acres and boost their barley acres from the projection based on a December-January survey, as they respond to a spike in fertilizer prices due to the Iran war, an ongoing rally in canola prices, and a search for “safe” crops to grow in a geopolitically fraught world, they said.

Canada is the world’s top producer and exporter of canola seed and a top-five wheat exporter.

“I think we’re going to see some upward adjustment to the canola acres,” said analyst Jerry Klassen of Resilient Capital. “When this survey was done, canola prices were below the cost of production.”

In some areas like Alberta, many farmers can now make a small profit on canola at today’s forward prices, so farmers are likely to grow more, he said. An increase of 400,000-500,000 acres is likely.

“I’m sure they’re going to lean further in to the oilseeds if they have any opportunity at all,” said Lawrence Klusa of Seges Markets, noting the runup in global vegetable oil crop prices.

Canola prices rise after uncertain winter

Futures prices for 2026-grown Canadian canola are up by more than $80 per metric ton since mid-December, a bigger gain than most competing crops have experienced.

Farmers might also boost their acres of pulse crops like peas if the present surge in fertilizer prices continues, Klusa said. Pulse crops are able to produce much of their own nitrogen requirements, allowing farmers to grow them at a relatively low cost.

Canadian farmers have faced a host of issues this winter. China’s market was blocked to canola and peas by prohibitive tariffs that were reduced only in the past two weeks. Trade tensions with the U.S. and unclear U.S. biofuels policies made that major market for canola oil appear uncertain. The war in the Persian Gulf has suddenly made fertilizer costs and supplies look worrying.

Klassen said farmers are likely to stick with their spring wheat acres and boost their barley acres from what they told StatCan because of these risks and due to the likelihood of financial losses this year.

“Those are kind of safety crops and a good choice with the price of urea going through the roof and so much instability,” said Klassen.

1 acre = 0.405 hectares

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There are suggestions that more spring wheat will be planted this spring compared to that seeded in 2025/26. Statistics Canada is set to release its initial 2026-27 seeding estimates on March 5. About 20.6 million wheat acres (except durum) are expected to be planted, compared to 20.5 million last year. Forecasts for durum, of 5.8 million to 6.4 million acres, were lower than last spring’s 6.532 million.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported wheat exports for the week ended Feb. 22 at 408,300 tonnes, greater than the 220,300 tonnes shipped the previous week. So far this marketing year, 12.645 million tonnes of wheat have been exported, compared to 11.531 million tonnes shipped at the same point one year ago.

Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat was up C$2.00 to C$5.40 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices were between C$260.70/tonne in southeast Saskatchewan to C$289.60 in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels ranged from between C$39.70 to C$68.60/tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

Accounting for exchange rates and adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars (C$1=US$0.7308), CWRS bids were from US$190.50 to US$211.60/tonne. Currency adjusted basis levels ranged from US$9.30 to US$30.40 below the futures. If the futures were converted to Canadian dollars, basis levels would be C$6.80 to C$22.20 below the futures.

Meanwhile, Canadian Prairie Red Spring (CPRS) prices gained C$4.00 to C$10.50 per tonne. The lowest average bid for CPRS was C$240.50 in southeast Saskatchewan, while the highest average bid was C$265.40 in southern Alberta.

The average prices for Canadian Western Amber Durum (CWAD) were up C$2.70 to C$3.40 per tonne with bids between C$282.80 in southwest Saskatchewan to C$294.80 in western Manitoba.

The May spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts are based off of, was quoted at US$6.1325 per bushel on March 3, up 17.75 cents.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The May contract rose 11.25 cents at US$5.7825/bu.

The May Chicago soft red contract was up 0.75 of a cent at US$5.74/bu.

The Canadian dollar tacked on 0.13 of a cent to close at 73.08 U.S. cents on March 3.

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“China stepped up and bought a lot of Canadian origin barley, which put the price up C$40 (per tonne) off the low for new crop,” Peterson said.

He reported feed barley bids at C$290/tonne delivered in Lethbridge for old crop and C$270 to C$275 for new crop. Feed wheat was trading at C$280 to C$285/tonne delivered.

Peterson said feedlots in southern Alberta are well-covered for grain.

“You have southern Alberta in relatively good shape right now for coverage. So you have two markets trading,” he added. “We’re poised to trade higher once we see some demand come back to the market in southern Alberta.”

Purchases of corn imported from the United States have quieted down as of late, said Peterson. But if there is continued demand for feed grains in the Canadian export market, he expects more corn to enter the markets due to its price parity with feed barley.

“If barley trends higher, you’re going to see feeders in the spring and summer switch to adding corn in their rations to limit the upside on barley,” Peterson explained.

As spring approaches, so does a potential weather market. Because of this, Peterson believes prices won’t be steady in the coming weeks.

“If we start getting some decent moisture, you’ll probably see some more grain liquidate off the farm,” he said. “Right now, we’re poised to continue to move higher or stay where we’re at. But we’re looking to go lower over the next three months.”

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported on Feb. 27 that delivered feed barley prices in Saskatchewan ranged from C$4.90 to C$5 per bushel, steady from the week before. The range in Alberta was from C$4.79 to C$6.05/bu., up seven cents from the past week. In Manitoba, it was C$4.60 to C$4.61/bu., down one cent.

For feed wheat, the price in Saskatchewan was C$7.00/bu., unchanged from the previous week. That in Manitoba was C$6.04/bu., up 10 cents. Values ranged from C$5.97 to C$7.76/bu. in Alberta, up five cents.

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Scott Capinegro, hedging specialist for AgMarket.net, said May corn was approaching a February low but is setting itself up for a March rally. As for wheat, he said funds were short and technicals were conducive for rallies the past week.

Soybeans’ rise can be attributed to rallying soyoil, of which the May contract had a weekly gain of 1.58 cents per pound. But the White House is expected to announce its biodiesel fuel blend in the coming days.

“That one could end up being ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact,’” he said. “We’re racing to meet a self-imposed deadline by the end of March. We’ve already put that rally into the market.”

Exports also should be giving support to corn and soybeans, said Capinegro.

“The corn exports continue to be good, but the corn market does act sloppy. We are breaking to the lower end of the range (in March corn). As for soybeans, it’s China, China, China,” he said, adding that the U.S. is waiting for Lunar New Year celebrations to end before shipping more beans to China.

The United States Department of Agriculture will host its 2026 Agricultural Outlook Forum from Feb. 19 to 20 in Arlington, Va. Capinegro said many are expecting projected corn acres to be trimmed while those for soybeans are raised. However, one grain’s loss could benefit two major crops.

“Are they taking into consideration (the loss) of a lot of rice acres down south?” he said. “They’re going into corn and beans.”

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The Canadian Grain Commission reported 230,300 tonnes of wheat exports for the week ended Feb. 1, down from 353,300 tonnes the previous week. So far this marketing year, 11.5 million tonnes of wheat were exported, compared to 10.5 million at the same time last year.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its monthly supply/demand estimates on Feb. 10, with 2025-26 wheat ending stocks raised by five million tonnes at 931 million, exceeding trade expectations. Global carryout was tightened by 740,000 tonnes at 277.51 million, below the trade’s pre-report estimates.

Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat was down C$0.10 to up C$2.40 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices were between C$249.10/tonne in southeast Saskatchewan to C$279.60 in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels ranged from between C$40.20 to C$70.80/tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

Accounting for exchange rates and adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars (C$1=US$0.7383), CWRS bids were from US$183.90 to US$206.50/tonne. Currency adjusted basis levels ranged from US$2.40 to US$25 below the futures. If the futures were converted to Canadian dollars, basis levels would be C$1.80 to C$18.40 below the futures.

Meanwhile, Canadian Prairie Red Spring (CPRS) prices lost C$1.80 to C$2.60 per tonne. The lowest average bid for CPRS was C$224.30 in southeast Saskatchewan, while the highest average bid was C$248.80 in southern Alberta.

The average prices for Canadian Western Amber Durum (CWAD) were up C$2.80 to C$3 per tonne with bids between C$278.50 in southwest Saskatchewan to C$289.60 in southern Alberta.

The March spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts are based off of, was quoted at US$5.6825 per bushel on Feb. 10, down 0.75 of a cent.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The March contract declined 4.25 cents at US$5.3050/bu.

The March Chicago soft red contract was down 0.5 of a cent at US$5.825/bu.

The Canadian dollar moved up 0.58 of a cent to close at 73.83 U.S. cents on Feb. 10.

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March soybeans rose 10.5 U.S. cents per bushel over the past week at US$10.75, while March corn gained 8.25 cents at US$4.30/bu. March Chicago wheat surged 28.25 cents to close at US$5.36/bu., its Kansas City hard red wheat counterpart added 22.25 cents at US$5.4225/bu. and March Minneapolis spring wheat was up 10.25 cents at US$5.74/bu.

Jack Scoville of The Price Futures Group in Chicago said cold temperatures ahead of the storm’s arrival may have damaged crops in winter wheat-growing areas, putting a weather premium on prices.

“(Winterkill) was probably the biggest impact,” Scoville said, adding that lower winter wheat prices earlier this month were setting up for a rally eventually.

U.S. President Donald Trump recently threatened a number of countries, including Iran, Greenland and Canada, reducing confidence in the U.S. dollar. As a result, the currency weakened against its international counterparts. However, a lower dollar means cheaper exports and increased buying interest.

For the week ended Jan. 15, U.S. soybean and corn export sales reached marketing-year highs of 2.45 million tonnes and 4.01 million, respectively, said the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Wheat export sales exceeded trade expectations for the week at 618,100 tonnes.

“Both those numbers are very high. They did support commercial demand and they are supporting commercial demand now,” Scoville said. “If the U.S. dollar stays weak, I imagine (export) sales will be stronger.”

He anticipated prices to become stronger in the next week and beyond. The March soybean contract could surpass the US$11/bu. level just in time before the South American soybean harvest enters the markets. The March corn contract could move up to US$4.45/bu, Scoville added.

“(March Chicago) wheat could move back to (November 2025) highs, US$5.60 to US$5.65/bu. Prices would be up across the board,” he said.

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Jerry Klassen of Resilient Capital, said Canadian barley yields increased by 25 per cent in 2025 and China took advantage of lower prices in August and September to buy an estimated 1,472,000 tonnes of the crop from September to December.

Saudi Arabia entered the Canadian market from September to November, buying an estimated 251,000 tonnes.

“The Canadian farmer likes to sell his barley crop in the fall,” Klassen recently told those attending his 2026 cattle market update in Lethbridge.

“Saudi Arabia buying Canadian feed barley, that is always the lowest-priced barley in the world. If you know that Canada is selling barley to Saudi Arabia, that’s the bottom for barley in Western Canada. That’s when you got to take a step forward and take coverage, buy as much barley as you can.”

WHY IT MATTERS: Knowing month-to-month international feed demands for exports can put producers ahead of the curve in predicting commodity markets for corn and barley.

Domestic feed demand for cattle makes for seasonal highs in the winter. Due to the significant rise in barley yields last year, acreage should be similar with less on-farm stock.

“There really is no cushion if we have a crop problem,” said Klassen.

Cattle-on-feed numbers are in the lows in August and September, suppressing demand, which coincides with when farmers wants to sell their barley right off the combine. Aggressive selling coupled with lower demand gives a lower barley price.

“There’s massive exports in October and November and then declines, but at the same time, domestic feed demand makes its seasonal highs in December and January. You get a snowstorm and then it causes the market to strengthen even more because the farmer stops selling,” said Klassen.

A bullish outlook is being projected for corn in 2026.

Ethanol demands continue to be strong, coupled with exports that are higher than the previous year.

Cattle-on-feed numbers in the United States are similar to those in Western Canada, being seasonally high from December to February. The U.S. still has to carry the overall export market until April.

Corn is the largest component of the global trade of feed grains by a large margin.

Its largest exporter is the U.S., selling 50 to 55 per cent of its corn from September to December.

Brazil, also a heavy hitter, plants two corn crops a year, with the fall crop, along with soybeans, earmarked for domestic consumption. The main export crop is seeded in February.

Argentina produces about 50 million tonnes but has suffered from extremely dry conditions.

“You have a risk premium developing because Argentina is dry, Brazil is only going to have their exportable surplus in late April-May, so the U.S. is the dominant exporter until spring. You have very strong export demand and have storing domestic demand as well, so that drives a higher price,” said Klassen.

“He now has 50 per cent of the crop to sell for the remainder nine months of the crop year. So that farmer selling is not as strong. The market almost has to work to get it from the farmer’s hands. We are looking at the barley and the corn market to make seasonal highs in April and May. That market is going to incorporate a risk premium in production because we are looking at lower corn acreage in the U.S. as well. “

March and April are typically when major funds enter the market — when the Brazilian crop is in pollination — causing seasonal price increases to go along with related barley markets.

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Brandon Motz, owner and manager of CorNine Commodities in Lacombe, Alta., said prices for feed barley rose to C$270 to C$272 per tonne delivered in Lethbridge as of Jan. 19, compared to C$260 to C$265 in the previous week. He added that recent strong sales have lifted prices at the right time.

“Barley needs at the feedlots still remain lower. Demand is not super high on the feedlot side. It’s allowed exports to come in and pick up some of that slack on the barley side,” Motz said. “We expect export demand to remain for the next several weeks, in terms to being able to post a competitive bid. Unless more business gets put on and it might last a bit longer.”

He added that export demand for feed grains is not abnormal for this time of year and that much of the feed barley exported is going to Japan.

Meanwhile, a large corn crop in the United States is making corn imports more appealing to buyers, but prices are still not at parity with feed barley.

“Corn (prices in) Lethbridge would be barley’s ceiling. Not everybody want to feed with corn, but corn is C$280 to C$283 in Lethbridge,” Motz said. “There are still guys that are feeding corn, but for the most part, barley is still the main source for feed today. If barley starts to run away, corn will become the default … From a dollars and cents perspective, it would be an easy switch.”

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released its January principal field crops outlook on Jan. 21, which included initial projections for the 2026-27 crop year. Seeded area for barley is set to increase by six per cent at 2.635 million hectares, but a return to average yields will see production decline by 13.1 per cent at 8.45 million tonnes.

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported delivered feed barley prices in Alberta ranged from C$4.50 to C$5.88 per bushel as of Jan. 21, steady from the past month. In Saskatchewan, prices were from C$4.50 to C$4.90/bu. (up 15 cents from the past month) and in Manitoba, prices were C$4.50 to C$4.64/bu. (up 11 cents).

For feed wheat, delivered prices in Alberta ranged from C$5.85 to C$7.48/bu. (down 14 cents). In Saskatchewan, a bid of C$6.88 was reported (steady) and in Manitoba, C$5.82 was reported (up 13 cents).

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