Dennis Lange, industry development pulses specialist for Manitoba Ag, said in a March 10 interview that any such changes “would be an option for somebody who hasn’t had fertilizer plans set up already.” Lange said if there were to be any alterations, the most likely crops to change to would be soybeans and pulses.

Fertilizer, crude oil prices rise

Fertilizer prices have spiked, following sharp hikes in crude oil prices that started when the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.

The day before, urea futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were about US$442 per tonne in the nearby contracts. By March 3, urea hit US$590 and closed March 10 at US$585.

In comparison, the April contract for West Texas Intermediate jumped from US$67 per barrel on Feb. 27, to almost US$95 six days later. On March 9, WTI topped out at more than US$119/barrel before closing at around US$83.50.

Fall fertilizer

Lange said Manitoba farmers managed to get down a good amount of fertilizer in the fall after a number of extensions to the application deadline following frequent rains.

“For now, I don’t foresee any big swings because there was a fair bit of fertilizer that went down last fall, on the nitrogen side anyways,” Lange said.

He added that growers will likely keep to their crop rotations and give consideration to weed issues, especially when it comes to planting peas.

“It’s the status quo for the most part, but if there’s unseeded acres or unplanned acres, that might be a shift to the crop set that might be more economical,” Lange said.

StatCan forecast

On March 5, Statistics Canada issued its planted area projections for 2026/27 and forecast less pulse acres for Manitoba while soybeans are to increase.

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Manitoba crops were 93 per cent combined as of Oct. 13, six points more than the previous week, said the province’s weekly crop report released on Oct. 15. All regions saw at least 14 millimetres of precipitation while snow accumulated in parts of the northwest. The Pas received the most precipitation at 65.7 mm. Winds exceeding 60 kilometres per hour were also felt in most regions. Nevertheless, harvest progress in all regions ranged from 91 to 98 per cent.

The barley and oat harvests were 99 per cent complete, while canola and dry beans were 96 per cent finished. Soybeans were 90 per cent complete while potatoes were at 84 per cent. Silage corn and flax were at 77 and 76 per cent, respectively, while grain corn lagged at 42 per cent and sunflowers trailed all crops at 17 per cent.

Winter cereal planting is complete with most of them in the three-leaf stage. Spring wheat yields averaged 60 bushels per acre with some fields showing yields up to 90 bu./ac. Barley yields ranged from 65 to 110 bu./ac., while oats ranged from 110 to 130 bu./ac. However, wet harvest conditions have caused a loss of quality in spring cereals.

Canola yields averaged 45 bu./ac. in a range of 30 to 70 bu./ac. The field pea harvest yielded an average of 60 bu./ac. from a range of 30 to 75 bu./ac. The soybean harvest continued with yields between 30 to 55 bu./ac. Meanwhile, the sunflower harvest was delayed due to producers waiting for them to dry.

Producers with cereal silage and native/slough hay are fighting wet conditions to wrap up their harvests. Producers are also encouraged to use management practices to promote and maintain snow cover for insulating alfalfa crowns in the winter. Pastures are now dormant with livestock now feeding on stockpiled forages, crop residue and regrowth or supplemental feed.

Livestock operations have begun weaning, but rains caused muddy conditions in pastures and corrals. Most producers have acquired sufficient amounts of feed for the winter, while hay and straw bales were being moved to wintering areas. Manure was also being spread out onto fields.

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Manitoba’s harvest advanced by 14 points to 86 per cent complete, said the province’s weekly crop report. Spring wheat was 99 per cent finished while barley and oats were 98 per cent. The canola harvest moved up to 92 per cent done while dry beans were at 90 per cent and potatoes were at 84 per cent. The soybean and silage corn harvests were at 69 per cent finished, with corn for grain at eight per cent.

The central, eastern and Interlake regions received heavy precipitation and winds gusting to 80 kilometres per hour. Sprague Lake in the eastern region received the most rain at 70.7 millimetres. However, there were a handful of locations that received less than one mm. Precipitation accumulations since May 1 were below 60 per cent of normal in the Interlake and parts of the northwest, while parts of the southwest and central regions received more than 100 per cent.

Spring wheat yields averaged 60 bushels per acre, with some yields reported to be 70 to 90 bu./ac. Quality was mostly good, but fields with delayed harvest due to wet conditions saw their wheat downgraded to feed. Oat yields ranged from 110 to 130 bu./ac., while barley yields were 65 to 110. Most corn for grain reached maturity as harvest began.

Canola yields ranged from 30 to 70 bu./ac. with an average of 45. Both flax and sunflowers were desiccated with the latter in the R8 and R9 development stages. Soybean yields ranged from 30 to 55 bu./ac.

Corn silage harvests have begun with average to above-average yields reported in most areas.

Some pastures remain in very good condition but producers are already providing supplementary feed for livestock. Producers are also considering late cuts of alfalfa as weather permits, particularly in areas that received frost damage.

Cattle were in excellent condition and remain on fall grazing pastures, hayland and harvested crop fields. Producers have started weaning and cattle are heading into markets being sold at very good prices. Most producers secured winter feed, but those in very dry areas are sourcing feed from elsewhere. Manure is starting to be spread out onto fields.

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Manitoba Agriculture reported both crops were about 52 per cent harvested, with the least in the southwest at 25 per cent and most in the central and eastern regions at 80 per cent. Early estimates placed yields for both crops at 40 to 90 bushels per acre, depending on how dry or moist a region was.

The spring wheat harvest reached six per cent finished, with the northwest at one per cent and the central and Interlake at 10 per cent. Yields so far were calculated at 45 to 75 bu./ac.

Wheat conditions by region had the Interlake at 90 per cent good to excellent, with the central, eastern and northwest at 80 per cent. The southwest was at 90 per cent good.

The barley harvest was pegged at eight per cent done ranging from five per cent in the Interlake and 20 per cent in the central. The oats were at four per cent combined, with the eastern and Interlake regions at five per cent in the bin and the central at 10 per cent.

As for the province’s corn, it’s in the R2 to R3 stages. Corn for silage was reported to be growing well in most areas.

The province’s field peas were 19 per cent combined, with the southwest at 10 per cent done and the central at 30 per cent. Yields were reported to be averaging 60 bu./ac. The fields not being combined were in the R6 to R7 stages with desiccation underway.

The canola harvest barely started with the central region at two per cent finished with preliminary yields of 45-55 bu./ac. No other region reported any combining of canola.

Among other oilseeds, flax was said to be filling bolls with some fields changing colour. Most sunflowers were in the R5 stage with full to late flower. Soybeans were in the R5 to R6 stages.

Recent rains have slowed some of the haying, but overall production was reported to be average. While some dairy farmers began a third cut of hay, cattle producers were struggling with a second cut.

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“I’ve heard good comments from some in the industry that the sunflower crop looks pretty good this year,” Lange said, noting Manitoba yields were estimated at 2,500 to 2,800 pounds per acre.

Earlier this fall, those yields came in at 2,000 to 2,400 lbs./ac., which was better than the forecast for 1,990 from Statistics Canada.

“Before the snow about three weeks ago, we still had a little way to go,” Lange said of the provincial sunflower harvest. “Most parts of the central region were finished up. There was still some to go in the eastern region, up in the Interlake, and the southwest.”

When Manitoba Agriculture published it last crop report of 2023, on Oct. 24, it listed the sunflower harvest at 58 per cent complete provincewide. At that time, 80 per cent of sunflowers in the central region had been combined with 60 per cent each in the eastern and Interlake regions, while 35 per cent was harvested in the southwest.

With decent weather lately for southern Manitoba, Lange placed the sunflower harvest at around 95 per cent complete, the Interlake still somewhat behind.

“They were delayed moreso from other crops. Trying to get some canola off, some of the late cereals, and finishing up the corn,” he said.

Morgan Cott, agronomy extension specialist with the Manitoba Crop Alliance, said some growers might leave part of their sunflower crop in the field over winter, then combine it in the spring.

“They’re dried down enough,” she said, noting at this point it doesn’t matter if the sunflowers are still in the field or stored in grain bins.

“As long there hasn’t been some weird incident where it wasn’t dry enough with the first frost,” Cott added, stating that some moisture in sunflowers during a September frost could lead to issues later.

StatCan in September forecast 77,700 tonnes of sunflowers to be produced in Canada in 2023-24. However, the crop alliance said that could reach upward to 85,000 to 90,000 tonnes, given improved yields.

Manitoba grows nearly all of Canada’s sunflowers, producing 95.6 per cent of Canada’s crop in 2023, with the remainder this year grown in Alberta, according to StatCan.

Total sunflower output in 2022 came in at 84,054 tonnes, a far distance from the record sunflower crop of 217,800 tonnes in 1979.

StatCan is set to publish its survey-based production report on Dec. 4.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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On a crop-by-crop basis, winter wheat saw varied quality across the province, with average yields of around 65 bushels per acre. Fall rye yields were begged at 70 to 90 bu/acre, with slightly elevated levels of ergot over previous years.

Meanwhile, spring wheat yields and quality beat expectations in many cases, with average yields of 60 to 79 bu/acre. Average protein levels were pegged at 13.0 to 15.5 per cent, although some late-harvested fields saw protein downgrades. Barley quality was good, with yields of 60 to 70 bushels per acre.

Oat yields failed to live up to expectations in some cases despite lush crop stands, averaging 120 to 130 bu/acre. Test weights came in at 44 to 48 pounds per bushel, according to the report.

The seeding delays in the spring cut into the corn area in the province, but yields for what was grown came in at 100 to 190 bu/acre with good quality and test weights.

For canola, extreme flea beetle pressure set upon earlier-planted canola crops that struggled to grow through cool, wet soils in early to mid-May, leading to multiple foliar insecticide applications or a very late reseed. Supply chain and manufacturing constraints also prevented a readily available supply of key herbicides in Manitoba, limiting the number of canola acres that could be sprayed (or sprayed twice). Strong winds initiated a widespread lodging event in mid-bloom canola in July, leading to a flat canola crop at harvest across many geographies. Lodged canola may have increased the prevalence of sclerotinia and other diseases in 2022, and led to lower realized yields due to challenging growth and harvest methods. Average canola yields were said to be slightly disappointing to many producers, when crop biomass appeared much better than average. Average yields varied, with a 20 to 60 bu/acre spread across much of the province, and provincial average yield expected to be 42 bu/acre.

The delayed spring benefitted many flax growers, and flax emerged very quickly after being planted into warm, moist soils. Crops appeared thick and uniform in most fields, and producers were pleased with higher average yields than they’ve seen in recent years. Average flax yields varied by region, but provincially averaged between 30 to 35 bu/acre, with many crops yielding above that.

Sunflowers appeared in good condition throughout the growing season, with seeds filling and fewer ‘blanks’ than last year. Sunflowers have been very slow to dry down in the Eastern and Interlake regions due to repeated rains, but yields were reported to be near 2,300 lbs/acre across the province.

For the pulse crops, excess moisture caused drowned-out spots in peas more frequently than in other crops, but average yields remained high, generally between 50 to 60 bu/acre on lighter land, and 70 to 80 bu/acre on heavier ground.

Soybean acreage reduction was noticeable this spring, as many farmers and retailers attempted to reduce planting of long-season crops and varieties in favour of wheat, oats or canola. Adequate heat accumulation and timely rains in August helped produce some excellent soybean yields across the province, where early-season soybeans were yielding between 40 to 50 bu/acre, while long-season soybeans were yielding between 50 to 65 bu/acre, both with good crop quality.

Dry beans performed well in 2022, despite reduced acres due to crop choice shifts, and have had very good yields reported, with many bean classes yielding between 2,000 to 3,000 lbs/acre.

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