Minneapolis and Kansas City wheat futures pulled back during the week, but Chicago nudged up a little. Ongoing issues with lacklustre U.S. export sales hampered the wheat complex, as did positioning ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. A somewhat stronger Canadian dollar put a little bit of pressure on Prairie cash prices.

Average CWRS (13.5 per cent protein) prices dropped $4.10-$7.10 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Those prices ranged from about $323.60 per tonne in northeastern Saskatchewan to $349 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from $56.10 to $81.50 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between U.S. dollar-denominated futures and Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to United States dollars, CWRS bids ranged from US$236.20 to US$254.80 per tonne. That would put the currency-adjusted basis levels at about US$12.80-$31.30 below the futures.

Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada ranged from $9.30 to $22.90 below the futures.

Average CPSR (11.5 per cent protein) wheat lost $5.70-$10.70 per tonne. Bids ranged from $271.10 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to $287.20 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Average CWAD prices were down by lesser amounts, dipping by between 20 cents and $1.80 per tonne. Bids ranged from $459.80 per tonne in northeastern Saskatchewan to $468.30 per tonne in western Manitoba.

The December spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, off of which most CWRS contracts in Canada are based was quoted at US$7.175 per bushel on Nov. 23, giving up 8.5 U.S. cents on the week.

Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPSR in Canada. The December K.C. wheat contract was quoted at US$6.145 per bushel on Nov. 23, dropping 12.75 U.S. cents compared to a week earlier.

The December Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$5.655 per bushel on Nov. 23, nudging up 2.25 U.S. cents on the week.

The Canadian dollar closed Nov. 23 at 73 U.S. cents, tacking on a little more than a quarter of a cent.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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U.S. wheat futures were lower as export sales continued to be weak. For the week of Nov. 3-9, 176,300 tonnes were sold for export, down 50 per cent from the previous week and 57 per cent from the four-week average. The International Grains Council added 1.7 million tonnes to its 2023-24 global wheat production estimate, to 786.6 million, while 1.8 million were added to its carryout projection at 264 million.

Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat prices were down $2.50-$4.60 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices were between $329.70/tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan and $356 in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels ranged between $57.60 and $84/tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between U.S. dollar-denominated futures and Canadian dollar cash bids.

Accounting for exchange rates and adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars, CWRS bids were from US$239.80 to US$259/tonne. Currency-adjusted basis levels ranged from US$13.10 to US$32.30 below the futures. If the futures were converted to Canadian dollars, basis levels would be $9.60-$23.50 below the futures.

Meanwhile, CPSR prices were down $7.80-$10.30/tonne. The lowest average bid for CPSR was $276.80/tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan, while the highest average bid was $295.80 in southern Alberta.

The average prices for Canada Western Amber Durum (CWAD) were 30 cents to $4.10 per tonne lower with bids between $460.10 in northeastern Saskatchewan and $468.70 in western Manitoba.

The December spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, off of which most CWRS contracts are based, was quoted at US$7.26 per bushel on Thursday and 8.5 U.S. cents lower than the previous week.

Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPSR in Canada. The December K.C. wheat contract was quoted at US$6.2725/bu., down 20 U.S. cents.

The December Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat contract lost 27.25 U.S. cents from the previous week at US$5.535/bu.

The Canadian dollar was slightly stronger, gaining 0.17 of a U.S. cent to close Thursday at 72.73 cents U.S.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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Average Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS, 13.5 per cent) wheat prices were up by $8.80-$10.10 per tonne across the Prairies, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices ranged from $333.50 per tonne in northeastern Saskatchewan to as high as $358.80 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from $63.60 to $88.90 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between U.S. dollar-denominated futures and Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting everything into Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels ranged from $6.90 to $20.20 below the futures.

Canada Prairie Spring Red (CPSR) wheat bids were up by $2-$8 per tonne, with prices ranging from $284.60 to $305.10 per tonne.

Average durum prices were up by between 10 cents and $1.60 per tonne. Prices ranged from $463.60 to $471.60 per tonne.

Spring wheat futures in Minneapolis were up by 23.75 U.S. cents per bushel in the December contract to settle Thursday at US$7.345 per bushel.

Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPSR in Canada. The December K.C. wheat contract was up by 5.75 U.S. cents on the week to close at US$6.4725 per bushel on Thursday.

The December Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$5.8075 per bushel on Thursday, up by 15.25 U.S. cents on the week.

The Canadian dollar strengthened relative to its U.S. counterpart early in the week before running into resistance to retreat and end relatively unchanged, finishing at 72.56 U.S. cents on Thursday, a move of only 0.02 U.S. cent.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) rated 50 per cent of the country’s winter wheat crop in good-to-excellent condition after trading ended on Monday, up three percentage points from the previous week. It was the highest rating for this time of year since 2019.

“This is an OK crop. It’s not like it is a wonderful crop,” said Jason Ward, managing director of Northstar Commodity in Minneapolis. “It is dramatically better than what it was a year ago.”

K.C. December hard red winter wheat closed down 13-1/4 cents at $6.32-1/2 a bushel, and MGEX December spring wheat was last down 4-1/2 cents at $7.24-1/4 a bushel (all figures US$). The most-active Chicago Board of Trade wheat contract settled down 5-1/2 cents at $5.70-1/4 per bushel.

Improved crop prospects after rainfall in drought-hit Australia and Argentina also weighed on wheat prices.

Brazil, the world’s top soybean supplier, saw torrential downpours in southern areas while arid conditions persisted to the north.

“Southern Brazil has been way too wet, and there is more rain in the forecast,” Ward said.

During Tuesday’s session, most-active soybeans hit $13.80 a bushel, their highest price since Sept. 6, before settling down two cents at $13.62 per bushel. Soymeal futures reached contract highs.

USDA reported exporters sold more U.S. soybeans to China.

Corn ended down 8-3/4 cents at $4.68-1/2 a bushel on higher U.S. yield prospects.

The U.S. corn harvest was 81 per cent complete by Sunday, slightly below the average analyst estimate of 82 per cent but ahead of the five-year average pace of 77 per cent.

Traders are waiting for USDA to issue its November supply/demand and crop production data on Thursday.

“The yield is seen as coming in higher than it was a month ago,” said Lane Akre, economist with ProFarmer. “That’s historically not the case coming into November, and I think traders kind of realize that.”

— Brendan O’Brien is a Reuters breaking news reporter in Chicago.

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As of Oct. 31, 2023, the net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 105,440 contracts (3,930 long, 109,370 short), an increase of about 12,000 contracts from the previous week and the largest net short position ever recorded for the commodity in the past five-and-a-half years of available data.

Open interest in the canola market came in at 275,456 contracts, which was up by about 5,000 contracts from the previous week.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, fund traders added to their small net long position in soybeans, taking it to roughly 23,000 contracts.

Meanwhile, the net short position in corn decreased by nearly 50,000 at roughly 147,100 contracts.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of about 108,800 contracts, which was up by about 11,000 contracts from the previous week. The net short in Kansas City hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 33,300 contracts. In Minneapolis spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 29,000 contracts.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.

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The U.S. wheat complex lost ground during the week, due in part to lacklustre export sales. However, those price declines, coupled with a weaker U.S. dollar, should make its wheat more competitive on the global market.

Average CWRS (13.5 per cent protein) prices dropped $4.80-$6.60 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Those prices ranged from about $323.90 per tonne in northeastern Saskatchewan to C$349.80 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from $62.80 to $88.60 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between U.S. dollar-denominated futures and Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars, CWRS bids ranged from US$235.10 to US$253.90 per tonne. That would put the currency-adjusted basis levels at about US$7.30 to US$26 below the futures.

Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada ranged from $5.30 to $18.90 below the futures.

Average CPSR (11.5 per cent protein) wheat lost $1.40-$6.10 per tonne. Bids ranged from $276.70 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to $301.70 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Average CWAD prices were steady to lower, losing as much as $8.30 per tonne in southern Alberta. Bids ranged from $463.30 per tonne in northeastern Saskatchewan to $471.10 per tonne in western Manitoba.

The December spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, off of which most CWRS contracts in Canada are based, was quoted at US$7.1075 per bushel on Nov. 2, falling 13.5 U.S. cents on the week.

Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPSR in Canada. The December K.C. wheat contract was quoted at US$6.415 per bushel on Nov. 2, pulling back 13.25 U.S. cents compared to a week ago.

The December Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$5.655 per bushel on Nov. 2, sinking 14 U.S. cents from the previous week.

Although the Canadian dollar finished on a higher note, it spent the better part of the week giving up ground. Only when the U.S. dollar reversed course, to tumble back, did the loonie find positive traction. It closed with a quarter-cent increase at 72.58 U.S. cents.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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As of Oct. 24, the net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 93,603 contracts (6,745 long, 100,348 short), an increase of about 22,800 contracts from the previous week and the largest net short position ever recorded for the commodity in the past five-and-a-half years of available data. The largest net short position in canola futures hit previously was 75,357 contracts in March 2023.

Open interest in the canola market came in at 270,477 contracts, which was down by 32,495 contracts from the previous week.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, fund traders moved back to the long side of the market in soybeans, moving from a small net short of about 3,400 contracts to a net long of around 6,800 contracts.

Meanwhile, the net short position in corn decreased by about 6,000 at roughly 99,500 contracts.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of about 97,700 contracts, which was down by about 13,000 contracts from the previous wee on a combination of speculative short covering and new longs going on the books. The net short in Kansas City hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 29,300 contracts. In Minneapolis spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 25,200 contracts.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.

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U.S. wheat futures were pressured throughout the week as rains fell on winter wheat-growing areas in the country, as well as in Argentina, Ukraine and Australia. Export sales for U.S. wheat were lower than in the previous week and near the low end of trade expectations. However, there are unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has suspended its use of the Black Sea grain shipping corridor due to dangers brought on by increased aviation activity by the Russian military.

Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat prices were down $1.30-$4.90 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices were between $329.10/tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan and $354.60 in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels ranged from between $63 and $88.40/tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between U.S. dollar-denominated futures and Canadian dollar cash bids.

Accounting for exchange rates and adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars, CWRS bids were from US$238 to US$256.50/tonne. Currency-adjusted basis levels ranged from US$9.70 to US$28.10 below the futures. If the futures were converted to Canadian dollars, basis levels would be $7-$20.30 below the futures.

Meanwhile, Canada Prairie Spring Red (CPSR) prices were down $5.50-$8.40/tonne. The lowest average bid for CPSR was $279.70/tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan, while the highest average bid was $307.80 in southern Alberta.

The average prices for Canada Western Amber Durum (CWAD) were $9.30-$13 per tonne lower, with bids between $463.30 in northeastern Saskatchewan and $477.60 in southern Alberta.

The December spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, off of which most CWRS contracts are based, was quoted at US$7.2425 per bushel on Oct. 26, 14.75 U.S. cents lower than the previous week.

Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPSR in Canada. The December K.C. wheat contract was quoted at US$6.5475/bu., down 21.5 U.S. cents.

The December Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat contract lost 14.5 U.S. cents from the previous week, closing Oct. 26 at US$5.795/bu.

The Canadian dollar was weaker, losing 0.58 of a U.S. cent to close at 72.33 U.S. cents on Oct. 26.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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As of Oct. 17, the net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 70,768 contracts (9,238 long, 80,006 short), an increase of about 9,000 contracts from the previous week and the largest net short position in seven months.

Open interest in the canola market came in at 302,972 contracts, which was down by 2,350 contracts from the previous week.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, fund traders were on both sides of the market, with the recently established net short position in soybeans edging up slightly at about 3,400 contracts.

Meanwhile, the net short position in CBOT corn decreased by about 5,000 at roughly 105,600 contracts.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of about 111,000 contracts. The net short in Kansas City hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 27,300 contracts. In Minneapolis spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 25,800 contracts.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.

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Average Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS, 13.5 per cent protein) wheat prices were up by $5-$10.20 per tonne across the Prairies, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices ranged from $331.90 per tonne in northeastern Saskatchewan to as high as $358.20 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from $60.40 to $86.60 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between U.S. dollar-denominated futures and Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting everything into Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels ranged from $7.60 to $21.50 below the futures.

Canada Prairie Spring Red (CPSR) wheat bids were up by $1.80-$3 per tonne, with prices ranging from $287.20 to $313.30 per tonne.

Average durum prices were down by $9.70-$18.30 per tonne. Prices ranged from $476.30 to $486.90 per tonne.

Spring wheat futures in Minneapolis were up by 15.5 U.S. cents per bushel in the December contract to settle at US$7.39 per bushel on Thursday.

Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPSR in Canada. The December K.C. wheat contract was up by 1.25 U.S. cents on the week to close Thursday at US$6.7625 per bushel.

The December Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$5.94 per bushel on Thursday, up by 22.5 U.S. cents on the week.

The Canadian dollar was down by roughly a third of a cent relative to its U.S. counterpart, finishing Thursday at 72.91 U.S. cents.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.

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