Maharashtra, which includes the city of Mumbai, is a major grower of sugarcane, soybean, cotton and onions, but opinion polls – which have a patchy record in India – suggest Modi’s alliance may struggle to retain the local legislature as farmers say they have yet to benefit from the recent measures.

An opinion poll by Lok Poll, covering more than 86,000 people in Maharashtra, showed last week that a coalition of opposition parties including Congress could wrest back the state with up to 162 of the 288 seats. It said low prices for crops such as soybean and cotton were a factor.

Other surveys have also said the BJP alliance could lose. Votes will be counted on Nov. 23.

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost its parliamentary majority in national elections held between April and June partly due to farmers’ anger with the export curbs, which they felt prioritised Indian consumers above growers by keeping domestic prices low.

In that national election, opposition parties won two thirds of the parliamentary seats in Maharashtra.

“We faced a setback during the parliamentary elections because of the restrictions on onion exports,” senior BJP leader and Maharashtra deputy chief minister, Devendra Fadnavis, told an election rally on Sunday.

“We have now lifted those curbs and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government will not impose export bans abruptly.”

India has removed export restrictions on rice and onions, and raised the tariffs on imported edible oil in a bid to help local growers of mustard and soybean get better prices at home.

Too late

But farmers say the steps have come too late, as they had already harvested and sold their produce like onions to traders, who are now benefiting from a surge in domestic prices.

Retail inflation soared to its highest level in 14 months in October, partly due to high prices of edible oils, onions and tomatoes.

“When we were selling onions in March and April, the government didn’t allow exports,” said farmer Mahesh Gore in Maharashtra’s Nashik district.

“We were forced to sell onions at 10 rupees per kg (C$0.17). If they had allowed exports then, we could have got double the price. Now prices are at 50 rupees (C$0.83), but only traders are benefiting.”

In recent years, India restricted onion exports whenever wholesale prices rose above 20 rupees (C$0.33).

Other farmers say they are not getting a good price for crops like soybeans because of a global glut now.

Mahesh Khade said he was barely getting 3,900 rupees per 100 kg (C$64.58) now for soybeans compared with 4,600 rupees a decade ago. Prices of diesel, fertilisers, and other inputs have more than doubled in the same period.

“They have ignored farmers’ interests,” Khade said, adding he would switch sides now and vote for the opposition.

The BJP did not respond to requests for comment.

— Additional reporting by Swati Bhat in Mumbai and Shivam Patel in New Delhi

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Agriculture Minister Arjun Munda, who met farmers’ representatives late on Thursday along with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and deputy interior minister Nityanand Rai, told reporters the talks were “positive”, adding: “We believe we will all find a solution together peacefully.”

Movement leader Jagjit Singh Dallewal also said the farmers would hold off their march for now.

“When the meetings have started, if we move forward (towards Delhi) then how will meetings happen?” Dallewal said, adding that the protest “will continue peacefully”.

Thousands of farmers had embarked on the “Delhi Chalo”, or “Let’s go to Delhi” march earlier this week to press the government to set a minimum price for their produce, but they were stopped by security forces about 200 kms (125 miles) away from the capital, triggering clashes.

Union leaders said a 63-year-old farmer, who was among those camped at the site, died of a heart attack early on Friday. A state police officer said they had received information about a farmer’s death and are looking into it.

The protests have erupted a few months before India is due to hold national elections in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a third term. Farmers are an influential voting bloc.

The farmers remained camped on the border between Punjab and Haryana states on Friday. Security forces have used concrete and metal barricades, as well as drones carrying tear gas canisters, to stop them for advancing.

The protest comes two years after Modi’s government, following a similar protest movement, repealed some farm laws and promised to find ways to ensure support prices for all produce.

–Additional reporting and writing for Reuters by Sakshi Dayal.

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Modi’s decision is a significant climb-down for the combative leader and comes as state elections in politically important grain-belt states loom.

The legislation — three laws introduced in September last year — was aimed at deregulating the sector, allowing farmers to sell produce to buyers beyond government-regulated wholesale markets where growers are assured of a minimum price.

Farmers, fearing the reform would cut the prices they get for their crops, staged nationwide protests that drew in activists and celebrities from India and beyond, including climate activist Greta Thunberg and pop singer Rihanna.

“Today I have come to tell you, the whole country, that we have decided to withdraw all three agricultural laws,” Modi said in an address to the nation.

“I urge farmers to return to their homes, their farms and their families, and I also request them to start afresh.”

The government would repeal the laws in the new session of parliament, starting this month, he said.

The concession on laws the government had said were essential to tackle chronic wastage and inefficiencies comes ahead of elections early next year in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state and long a key political battleground, and two other northern states with large rural populations.

Modi’s capitulation leaves unresolved a complex system of farm subsidies and price supports that critics say the government cannot afford.

It could also raise questions for investors about how economic reforms risk being undermined by political pressures.

Protesting farmers, who have been camped out in their thousands by main roads around the capital, New Delhi, celebrated Modi’s back-track.

“Despite a lot of difficulties, we have been here for nearly a year and today our sacrifice finally paid off,” said Ranjit Kumar, a 36-year-old farmer at Ghazipur, a major protest site in Uttar Pradesh.

Jubilant farmers handed out sweets in celebration and chanted “hail the farmer” and “long live farmers’ movement.”

Rakesh Tikait, a farmers’ group leader, said the protests would only be called off when parliament repealed the laws.

Vulnerable to big business

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government said last year there was no question of repealing the laws. It attempted to break the impasse by offering to water down the legislation but protracted negotiations failed.

The protests took a violent turn on Jan. 26, India’s Republic Day, when farmers overwhelmed police and stormed the historic Red Fort in New Delhi after tearing down barricades and driving tractors through roadblocks.

One protester was killed and scores of farmers and policemen were injured.

Farmers say the changes would make them vulnerable to competition from big business and they could eventually lose price support for staples such as wheat and rice.

The government says reform of the sector, which accounts for about 15 per cent of the US$2.7 trillion economy, would have meant new opportunities and better prices for farmers.

Modi announced the scrapping of the laws in a speech marking the birth anniversary of Guru Nanak, the founder of Sikhism. Many of the protesting farmers are Sikh.

He acknowledged that the government had failed to win the argument.

The farmers are also calling for minimum support prices for all of their crops, not just rice and wheat, a new demand that has gained traction among farmers across the country.

Some agriculture experts said Modi’s reversal was unfortunate because the reforms would have brought new technology and investment.

“It’s a blow to India’s agriculture,” said Sandip Das, a New Delhi-based researcher and agricultural policy analyst.

“The laws would have helped attract a lot of investment in agricultural and food processing — two sectors that need a lot of money for modernization.”

The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), a group that represents top corporations, had pinned hopes on the laws to pave the way for modernizing India’s decrepit post-harvest infrastructure.

Also, the US$34 billion domestic food processing sector would have grown exponentially, thanks to the laws, according to CII.

Another industry body, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, late last year said the laws should spur startups, and technological interventions would help cut wastage and bring efficiency in the agriculture sector.

Seizing on opportunities, global and Indian venture capitals have already started funding agritech startups that aim to run the entire food supply chain, currently prone to massive wastage, often as high as four to five times that of most large economies, experts say.

Anil Ghanwat, head of a farmers’ union and a member of a Supreme Court-appointed farm panel, said the laws promised farmers freedom from middlemen and their repeal would leave them open to old exploitation.

The opposition has been keen to take advantage of the acrimony between farming communities and Modi’s party and Rahul Gandhi of the main opposition Congress party, said the “arrogant” government had been forced to concede.

“Just the beginning of many more victories for people’s voices,” Mahua Moitra, a lawmaker from the Trinamool Congress Party and one of Modi’s staunchest critics, said on Twitter.

State elections are also due soon in Punjab and Uttarakhand in the north.

Modi’s party looks well placed to fend off challenges in the next general election, due by 2024, but in a worrying sign for him, a regional party swept to power in West Bengal state in May.

— Reporting for Reuters by Mayank Bhardwaj, Rajendra Jadhav and Krishna N. Das; additional reporting by Shilpa Jamkhandikar.

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Tens of thousands of farmers have camped out on the outskirts of New Delhi for more than two months, blocking key roads and demonstrating against the laws they say will benefit large private buyers at their expense.

The protests have mostly been peaceful but a tractor rally on Jan. 26 flared into turmoil as some farmers clashed with police in New Delhi.

Since then, authorities have shut down the mobile internet in parts of the national capital and heavily barricaded border roads to prevent protesters from coming into the city again.

“The rights to peaceful assembly + expression should be protected both offline + online,” the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights said on Twitter late on Friday.

“It’s crucial to find equitable solutions with due respect to #HumanRights for all.”

The farmers will hold a three-hour “chakka jam,” or road blockade, starting around noon local time across the country except in New Delhi and a couple of neighbouring states.

While the protests were initiated by rice and wheat growers from northern India, particularly opposition-ruled Punjab state, support has been growing across the country.

The issue has also caught international attention with celebrities such as pop star Rihanna and environment campaigner Greta Thunberg announcing their support for the farmers. The U.S. has also urged India to resume talks with farmers.

The Modi government has held multiple rounds of talks with farmer representatives but failed to resolve their differences.

The government says the reforms will bring much-needed investment to the farm sector, which accounts for nearly 15 per cent of India’s US$2.9 trillion economy and about half its workforce.

— Reporting for Reuters by Abhirup Roy.

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In a standoff between riot police and the farmers, authorities tried to clear a protest site in the city’s east but most farmers refused to move and their leaders said any retreat would constitute surrender.

“Concerned over police high-handedness, thousands of farmers, who were not part of the protest, have now come to bolster our movement,” Rakesh Tikait, president of one of the largest farmer unions, the Bharti Kisan Union, told Reuters on Friday.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government introduced the new agricultural laws in September, triggering a wave of protests and sit-ins on some of the major approaches to New Delhi.

Farm leaders say the laws are an attempt to erode a longstanding mechanism that ensures farmers a minimum support price for their rice and wheat.

The government says the reforms will open up new opportunities for farmers and it says it will not bow to the protesters’ demands.

Modi retains a solid majority in parliament although the protests are beginning to undermine some support for the government in the countryside and play on old loyalties.

Farmer leaders have accused authorities of acting at the behest of politicians affiliated with Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.

Union leader Tikait comes from a politically influential farming community in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state in the north. In several villages, members of the dominant Jat community will gather on Friday to support the protest.

The protest turned violent on Tuesday, when India celebrated its Republic Day with a military parade, when some protesters broke away from a procession of tractors to break through barricade and clash with police.

— Reporting for Reuters by Mayank Bhardwaj; additional reporting by Devjyot Ghoshal and Danish Siddiqui.

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India marks its founding as a republic on Tuesday with a military parade in the historic city centre, but the farmers, who are demanding a rollback of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s deregulation effort, plan their own peaceful show of strength.

Delhi’s police said protesters have been told to use three main routes for the tractor procession, which had been agreed upon after six days of discussion with farmer leaders.

But there are lingering concerns that “anti-national people” may seek to foment trouble during the demonstration, Delhi Police Commissioner S.N. Shrivastava told reporters.

“We are aware of all this and we are taking whatever action is required,” Shrivastava said, “I have trust that everything will go on peacefully.”

On National Highway 44, loudspeakers blared anti-government songs as the lengthy procession of vehicles rolled down, fuelled by dozens of community kitchens that handed out hot meals and beverages in the winter cold.

“We will teach Modi a lesson that he will never forget,” said one of the protesters, from the district of Ludhiana in Punjab, who drove his own tractor. The 35-year-old, who cultivates 10 acres, asked not to be identified.

Farmers mainly drawn from the breadbasket states of Punjab and adjoining Haryana have blockaded approaches into New Delhi for about two months to protest against three new farm laws they say will hurt their livelihoods and help big companies.

Their unions are pushing for repeal of the laws, after rejecting a government proposal to suspend the measures it says will usher in much-needed steps to boost farmer incomes.

Several rounds of talks with Modi’s government have made little headway, and protesters now aim to up the ante with the procession set to follow Tuesday’s military parade.

Top leaders and military officials attend the annual high-security parade to mark the day India’s constitution took effect in 1950.

A farmers’ group exhorted its members to refrain from violence in detailed instructions issued for Tuesday’s event.

“Remember, our aim is not to conquer Delhi, but to win over the hearts of the people of this county,” it said.

In the western state of Maharashtra, thousands of farmers were also on the move, flocking to a flag-hoisting ceremony on Tuesday in the heart of Mumbai, India’s financial capital.

“We are here to support farmers in Delhi, to highlight that farmers across the country are against the farm laws,” said Ashok Dhawale, a state protest leader.

— Reporting for Reuters by Manoj Kumar; additional reporting by Rajendra Jadav in Mumbai and Saurabh Sharma in Lucknow; writing by Devjyot Ghoshal.

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The cornerstone of the reform, introduced in September, allows private buyers to deal directly with farmers.

Angry farmers, who say that will make India’s traditional wholesale markets irrelevant and leave them at the mercy of big retailers and food processors, have camped out on major highways outside New Delhi for more than two months.

Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said the government was open to suspending the laws for up to 18 months, during which time representatives of the government and farmers should work to “provide solutions” for the industry.

Bilateral talks have so far failed to break the deadlock — landing Prime Minister Narendra Modi with one of his most significant challenges since he was re-elected in 2019.

The next round of talks is due on Friday, and farm leader Dharmendra Malik said the unions would let the government know then if they would accept the offer and call off the protests.

The government was “sympathetic to farmers’ concerns and is trying to end the stalemate,” it said in a statement, thanking them for maintaining “peace and discipline” during the protests.

Farmers plan a tractor rally through New Delhi on Tuesday, India’s Republic Day, which the Supreme Court on Wednesday declined a government petition to ban.

— Reporting for Reuters by Mayank Bhardwaj; additional reporting by Suchitra Mohanty and Nigam Prusty.

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In eastern and western states, farmers blocked roads and squatted on railway tracks, delaying hordes of people getting to work, and preventing perishable produce from reaching markets.

Farmers from the northern states of Punjab and Haryana, neighbouring New Delhi, have been at the vanguard of the agitation since last month, and have set up protest camps in and around the capital.

“We will not allow the government to change the rules because they want to hurt farmers’ income by filling the pockets of big companies,” said Gurwinder Singh, a 66-year-old farmer from Punjab, a state known as the food bowl of India. The reforms enacted in September loosened rules around the sale, pricing and storage of farm produce that have protected farmers from an unfettered free market for decades.

Assured of floor prices, most currently sell the bulk of their produce at government-controlled wholesale markets, known as mandis.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has said the reforms would not hurt farmers’ incomes. More talks between the government and farmer organizations are due on Wednesday.

Home Minister Amit Shah late on Tuesday invited leaders of protesting farmers’ unions for talks.

“Most likely, the government on Wednesday will give a written proposal about the likely amendments in the laws. Once we receive the proposals, we will examine them,” farmers’ leader Hanan Molla told reporters after the meeting.

Social media has fanned sympathy for the farmers’ cause among the Indian diaspora abroad. During recent days, thousands of people have protested in support of the farmers outside the Indian embassy in central London. In Canada, rallies were reported over the past week in cities including Toronto, Calgary, Winnipeg and Charlottetown.

During the coronavirus pandemic, protest sites around New Delhi have turned into camps, with entire families cooking and sleeping in the open and Sikh religious organizations were providing them with face masks, water and food.

— Reporting by Reuters’ India bureau; writing by Rupam Jain and Mayank Bhardwaj.

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Thousands of people from the big farming state of Punjab were camped out on the outskirts of Delhi for a fifth day demanding that they be allowed to stage protests in the city centre against the new laws that open up India’s tightly regulated farm produce market.

Farmers who could earlier sell grains and other products only at neighbouring government-regulated wholesale markets can now sell them across the country, including to big food processing companies and retailers such as WalMart.

But farm groups and opposition parties say the government will eventually abolish the wholesale markets, where growers were assured of a minimum support price for staples such as wheat and rice, leaving small farmers at the mercy of corporate agribusinesses.

Speaking at a public rally during a visit to his political constituency of Varanasi in northern India, Modi dismissed the fears as misplaced.

“The new agricultural laws have been brought in for benefit of the farmers. We will see and experience benefits of these new laws in the coming days,” he said. He blamed the opposition for spreading rumours about the future of farmers.

The farm sector contributes nearly 15 per cent of India’s US$2.9 trillion economy and employs around half its 1.3 billion people.

The government says the deregulation of the sector will attract investment and fix the supply chains that lose a quarter of India’s produce to wastage.

But Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the main opposition Congress party, said the new laws would benefit big business and accused Modi of crony capitalism.

“Our farmers are standing up against the black laws, they have reached Delhi leaving their farms and families behind. Do you want to stand with them or with Modi’s capitalist friends?” he said in a tweet.

— Sanjeev Miglani is Reuters’ bureau chief in New Delhi.

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Farmers’ organizations say one of the three laws could lead to the government stopping buying grain at guaranteed prices, a move that would disrupt wholesale markets which have so far ensured fair and timely payments to farmers.

President Ram Nath Kovind’s approval is likely to further stir protests, leading farmers’ organizations said.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already lost a key political ally from the northern Indian state of Punjab, one of India’s two breadbasket states, where farmers form an influential voting bloc.

The country’s main opposition Congress party has also backed the protests.

Under the Farmers’ Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Bill — one of the laws already approved by parliament — growers can directly sell their produce to institutional buyers such as big traders and retailers.

Nearly 85 per cent of India’s poor farmers own less than two hectares of land and they find it difficult to directly negotiate with large buyers.

Modi’s administration has clarified that the wholesale markets will operate as usual, and the government only aims to empower farmers to sell directly to buyers.

— Reporting for Reuters by Neha Arora and Mayank Bhardwaj.

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