Susanne Leclerc of Market Master Ltd. in Edmonton said there is a wide gap between March prices in Edmonton and Lethbridge due to the amount of corn coming into the southern half of the province. However, the discrepancy is narrowing for April delivery.

“Elevators are paying C$5.70 (per bushel for feed barley) delivered in the Edmonton region, and when you take the feed barley price picked up in the Lethbridge region, it would only be C$5.10, C$5.15 in the March timeframe picked up in the yard,” Leclerc explained.

“It seems like if we look into April, they’re starting to match. So it will be interesting to see if they get closer or not, because there is more corn coming into the Lethbridge area.”

Strong export programs at elevators for feed barley are keeping prices elevated, she added, diminishing the grain’s market advantage over corn. Leclerc also said mild weather and higher prices have resulted in increased grain movement.

More markets coverage: World’s winter wheat crops look good for now

“More people are taking advantage of the markets that are there,” she said.

Other grains are also making their way into feedlots to fulfill their feed ratios.

“We’re seeing some more wheat being picked up by feedlots,” Leclerc said. “We’re seeing more demand for feed pulses like feed peas and fabas. There is still a lot of demand for feed oats.”

Feed grain prices should start to see their perennial spring rallies at around April, she added.

Delivered feed barley prices in Alberta ranged from C$4.90 to C$5.88/bu., down four cents from the previous week, said Prairie Ag Hotwire on Feb. 11. Those in Manitoba were from C$4.60 to C$4.61, down two cents, while a price of C$5.00 was reported in Saskatchewan, unchanged from the week before.

For feed wheat, delivered prices in Alberta ranged from C$6.31 to C$7.59/bu., down three cents from seven days earlier. Manitoba reported a price of C$5.86, while Saskatchewan had a price of C$7.00, with both unchanged.

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“The crop this year was just huge,” Shiels said of the 2025/26 harvest.

3.92 million tonnes

Statistics Canada pegged the oat harvest at 3.92 million tonnes, up from 3.36 million in 2024/25.

“We really didn’t have a big increase in acres, we just had a really good crop on almost every one of those acres,” he added. “It’s really burdensome on the market.”

The December report from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada placed the planted oat area for 2025/26 at about 1.21 million hectares compared to 1.17 million the previous year. The yield improved to 3.74 tonnes per hectare from 3.38.

Less to be planted in spring

Shiels said a common projection in the trade has called for a three per cent decline in oat acres, although one estimate he said predicted a 12 per cent drop.

“The carryout is going to be huge, maybe 700,000 to 750,000 tonnes,” Shiels said. “That’s the largest in a long time.

AAFC projected oat ending stocks at the high end as exports are expected to only bump up to 2.65 million tonnes from 2.57 million and total domestic use is to climb to 1.05 million tonnes from 972,000.

‘Oats at a loss’

With that in mind, Shiels said some country elevators are already below C$3 per bushel for old crop oats. He noted new crop bids are in the C$3.25 to C$3.50 range.

“Those are planting oats at a loss,” Shiels warned.

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Most other crops grown in Western Canada were also larger on the year and up from the September estimates that were based off satellite imagery.

Total wheat production was forecast at 39.955 million tonnes, which was up from the September estimate of 36.624 million tonnes, 11.2 per cent higher on the year and above the top end of pre-report trade expectations. Of the total, spring wheat was up 10.3 per cent from 2024/25 at 29.259 million tonnes and durum was up 11.8 per cent at 7.135 million tonnes.

The previous record for total wheat production was the 37.589 million tonnes grown in 2013.

Canola

Canola production was forecast at a record 21.804 million tonnes, up 13.3 per cent on the year and topping the previous high of 21.458 million tonnes set in 2017. Despite lower harvested area, “timely precipitation late in the season in Western Canada helped to push canola yields to or near record highs in all three Prairie provinces,” said StatCan. Average national canola yields for 2025/26 were estimated at 44.7 bushels per acre.

Barley production, at 9.725 million tonnes, is forecast to be up 19.4 per cent on the year, with oats up 16.7 per cent at 3.920 million tonnes. Production for both grains topped trade estimates.

Pulses

Lentil production was forecast to increase 38.3 per cent on the year at a record 3.363 million tonnes, which would be about 1.1 million tonnes above the five-year average.

Pea production was the largest since 2020, up 31.3 per cent from the previous year at 3.934 million tonnes.

Soybeans/Corn

Conditions in Eastern Canada were drier than normal through the growing season, cutting into the production prospects for soybeans and corn.

Soybeans were estimated at 6.793 million tonnes, down 10.2 per cent on the year but still above the five-year average of 6.735 million.

Estimated Canadian corn production, at 14.867 million tonnes, would be down by 3.1 per cent from 2024/25 but still slightly above the five-year average.

The field crop survey was sent to approximately 27,200 Canadian farms and was conducted from Oct. 3 to Nov. 6, 2025. Farmers were asked to report their estimated seeded and harvested areas; yields; and production of grains, oilseeds and special crops.

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The nearby futures have moved below US$3 per bushel for the first time in nearly five years, while cash bids in Saskatchewan are well below C$4 per bushel.

“Everything is down, which doesn’t help,” said Scott Shiels of Grain Millers in Yorkton, Sask., noting that there was no spillover support coming from other grains like wheat, barley or corn.

“For right now, there’s nothing bullish out there to drive (prices) higher.”

While better pricing opportunities were available earlier in the growing season, “it’s not a great fall pricing-wise for guys if they didn’t do stuff ahead of time,” said Shiels. He expected there may not be much more room to the downside but added that any move higher likely won’t occur until the New Year as end users are covered for now.

He said farmer selling remained steady despite the softer prices, attributing some of that activity to the logistics of storing oats.

“If you have a good crop of oats, it takes up a lot more space than a good crop of canola or wheat … If you get the option to move it before the snow flies, you take it,” said Shiels.

Quality of Canada’s oats was generally good, with about three quarters of the crop off the field before rains led to quality issues with the final quarter of the harvest. Shiels said there was plenty of good quality milling oats, although there may also be more feed quality oats looking for a home than in recent years.

Most feeders will be looking for barley and wheat before oats and won’t want to adjust their rations unless they can guarantee a long-term supply of oats, so anybody with feed quality oats will need to market it aggressively, added Shiels.

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StatCan published its major grain deliveries report for August 2025 on Sept. 25. In total, 3.588 million tonnes were delivered compared to 4.329 million in August 2024. The agency noted that tariffs placed on Canadian goods headed to the United States may have an impact on deliveries.

All wheat deliveries in August totaled 2.259 million tonnes compared to 2.321 million one year earlier. For durum, 279,584 tonnes were delivered last month, up from 244,560 tonnes in August 2024.

Canola deliveries fell below one million tonnes for the first time since August 2023, dropping to their lowest monthly total since May 2022. StatCan reported 621,555 tonnes of the oilseed were delivered in August, compared to 1.32 million tonnes in August of last year.

August barley deliveries were 379,238 tonnes, slightly more than the 375,071 tonnes delivered in August 2024. For oats, 278,097 tonnes were delivered, up from 267,271 tonnes one year earlier. Rye deliveries were up from 29,375 tonnes in August 2024 to 38,098 last month. Flaxseed deliveries were down from 15,127 tonnes in August 2024 to 11,953 tonnes a year later.

Saskatchewan provided 36.6 per cent of all deliveries, followed by Manitoba with 22.2 per cent and Alberta at 20.4 per cent.

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The largest increase in the latest model-based estimates was in wheat, moving to 36.62 million tonnes from an estimated 35.55 million tonnes in August. That would be up 1.9 per cent on the year and the largest wheat crop since 2013.

Of that total, durum production was raised to 6.54 million tonnes from 6.08 million in August and 6.38 million a year ago. Spring wheat came in at 26.61 million tonnes, up by 2.4 per cent from August but in line with the 26.52 million tonnes grown in 2024/25.

Canola production was raised to 20.03 million tonnes from 19.94 million tonnes in August. That compares with 19.24 million tonnes grown in 2024/25 and the five-year average of 18.26 million tonnes.

Barley production, at 8.23 million tonnes, is forecast to be up one per cent on the year, with oats up 0.4 per cent at 3.37 million tonnes.

Conditions in Eastern Canada were drier than normal through the growing season, reported StatCan.

Soybeans were one of the few crops forecast with smaller production in 2025/26. Soybeans were estimated at 7.13 million tonnes, which would be down by 5.7 per cent on the year but still above the five-year average of 6.74 million.

Estimated Canadian corn production, at 15.50 million tonnes, would be up by one per cent on the year, and 800,000 tonnes above the five-year average.

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The data is similar to that released last year for canola, wheat, durum, peas and lentils.

It shows that one tonne of oats produced in Saskatchewan has a carbon footprint 201 per cent lower than that produced across the country. Western Canadian production is 96 per cent lower than the Canadian number.

Competing countries are much higher than Canada overall, at 920 per cent for Australia, 1,898 per cent for Finland, 685 per cent for Poland and 884 per cent for Sweden.

Barley produced in Saskatchewan is 117 per cent lower than the Canadian footprint, while western Canadian barley is 37 per cent lower.

In comparison, Australia’s footprint is 408 per cent higher than Canada and France is 352 perc ent higher.

The study points to the sustainability of crops grown in the province and western Canada, GIFS said.

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Major crops were rated 59 per cent good to excellent, 10 points better than the previous week, but down from the 73 per cent five-year average and the 77 per cent 10-year average. Ratings improved by 24 points from the week before in the northwest region at 73 per cent, while there was also a 20-point improvement in the central region at 72 per cent. The northeast and the south were up seven points at 65 and 55 per cent, respectively. The Peace region declined two points at 25 per cent.

Spring wheat, barley and dry peas were rated at 60 per cent good to excellent, while oats and canola were rated at 58 per cent.

Provincewide, surface soil moisture saw a large improvement from 37 per cent good to excellent on June 17 to 65 per cent a week later. The best rating was in the central region at 76 per cent, followed by the south at 69 per cent, which are above their historical averages at this time of year. The northwest was at 67 per cent, the northeast at 59 per cent and the Peace region at 36 per cent.

Subsurface moisture in Alberta improved by 12 points at 50 per cent good to excellent. The south was 22 points higher than the previous week at 48 per cent, the central region was up 17 points at 59 per cent and the northeast gained nine points at 44 per cent. The northwest lost one point at 49 per cent and the Peace region was down 10 points at 43 per cent.

Pasture growth conditions still lagged behind historical averages at 41 per cent good to excellent in Alberta, the same rating as the previous week. This is compared to the 61 per cent five-year average and the 59 per cent 10-year average. However, rains across the province caused more greening and regrowth. The central region gained seven points at 53 per cent, the northeast was up one point at 33 per cent, the northwest was down two points at 59 per cent, the Peace region declined four points at 22 per cent and the south dropped six points at 33 per cent.

Tame hay growth declined one point in the province at 37 per cent good to excellent. The central region was up six points at 49 per cent, the northeast was up three points at 28 per cent, the northwest and the south were down three points at 54 per cent and 30 per cent, respectively and the Peace region fell six points at 20 per cent.

Heavy pasture weed growth in the south and Peace regions was reported at eight and 10 per cent, respectively.

The post Alberta Crop Report: Conditions improve appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

The current pace stood 12 points above the five-year average, rather remarkable given the amount of rain Manitoba received over the last eight days.

For cereals, the report said most of the province’s spring wheat has been seeded, while oats and barley catching up. Also, the winter wheat and fall rye were in average to above average condition.

Among the oilseeds, the planting of sunflowers was more than 80 per cent finished, with canola and flax at 30 per cent each.

Manitoba Ag placed soybeans at 40 per cent planted.

For the pulses, field peas reached 96 per cent complete while dry beans were getting started.

The department noted the largest amount of rainfall was 88.5 millimetres in the Morden area, down to 3.2 mm in the Elma area.

The cooler temperatures Manitoba has experienced has slowed forage growth, but that and pasture conditions are expected to improve. However, in the province’s southeast recent wildfires adversely impacted pastures and infrastructure.

Nearly all of Manitoba’s corn for silage or for grazing has been planted.

The ag department reported a number of pests are active, including striped and cruciferous beetles, dingy cutworms, wireworms in the central region. In the Interlake, flea beetles are becoming more common and there have been low counts of diamondback moths in traps.

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Progress in southern Alberta continued to be far ahead of the rest of the province at 76 per cent, up 30 points on the week. However, producers also made strong progress in the other regions:

• Central advanced 31 points at 51 per cent done

• Northeast also progressed 31 points at 37 per cent finished

• Northwest is up 21 points at 29 per cent complete

• Peace River pushed 17 points at 27 per cent seeded.

By crop, emergence

By crop, Alberta’s dry peas were furthest along at 74 per cent seeded, followed by the spring wheat at 66 per cent. Barley was next, near the halfway point with canola at 24 per cent finished and oats at 17 per cent.

The report cited overall emergence at 10 per cent, seven points more than the five-year average. By region that worked out to be 19 per cent in the central, 15 per cent in the south, five in the northwest, and three in the northeast and Peace.

Moisture levels

Surface soil moisture levels, from the ground to six inches down, rated 59 per cent good to excellent, virtually on par with the five-year average. Recent precipitation helped to improve some ratings, but there were declines in others:

• Central up 20 points at 85 per cent G-E

• Peace down 11 points at 56 per cent G-E

• South dipped two points at 50 per cent G-E

• Northeast climbed 13 points at 45 per cent G-E

• Northwest held at 41 per cent G-E

Of note, no part of Alberta had any excessive surface soil moisture levels.

The report placed pasture growth conditions at 59 per cent good to excellent provincewide, 11 points above the five-year average. Alberta’s tame hay also came in at 59 per cent good to excellent, 15 points ahead of average.

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