“It didn’t do much at all for the market reaction. Some slight adjustments, but overall a nothing burger,” said John Weyer, vice-president of Walsh Commercial Hedging Services in Chicago, Ill.

“To steal a quote from my office manager, they released the report and didn’t tell anyone,” Weyer quipped.

Few changes in U.S. crops

Among the trio of main commodities, there were no changes to U.S. production of soybeans, corn and wheat for the 2025-26 marketing year.

• For daily market updates, visit The Western Producer Markets Desk

As for 2025-26 U.S. exports and ending stocks, the only differences compared to the USDA’s March report were that soybean exports were trimmed to 1.54 billion bushels from 1.58 billion, and the wheat carryover was bumped up to 938 million bushels from 931 million.

Global adjustments

However, Walsh said the change in global ending stocks for wheat did see a five to six cent drop in the North American futures. The carryout rose to 283.12 million tonnes in the April report from 276.96 million last month.

As well, world wheat production for 2025-26 was upped to 844.15 million tonnes, based on increased output for Argentina, the European Union and Russia.

For corn, the USDA kept Argentina and Brazil at 52 million and 132 million tonnes, respectively. Also with soybeans, with Argentina at 48 million tonnes and Brazil held at 180 million.

Crude oil

With such a mundane report, Walsh said crude oil will continue to guide the commodity futures over the next 30 days.

“That’s the driver of the bus right now,” Walsh said.

While recent talk of a ceasefire between U.S. and Israel with Iran generated sharp declines in crude oil and the agricultural commodities, fears of the war escalating pushed prices higher on April 9.

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India

The USDA attaché in New Delhi projected India’s 2026/27 canola production at 12.10 million tonnes, slightly higher than the 2025/26 harvest of 11.90 million.

While yields are expected to hold at 1.31 tonnes per hectare, the attaché forecast Indian farmers to harvest more area – 9.25 million hectares versus 9.10 million in 2025/26.

“(Canola) is expected to remain profitable, with prices sufficient to cover input costs and ensure solid margins for growers,” the attaché wrote.

WHY IT MATTERS: India is among the largest canola producers in the world and Japan is a major oilseed importer.

Despite India being one of the world’s top canola growers, the country does not import or export the crop.

The New Delhi desk estimated the domestic crush will bump up to 10.90 million tonnes from 10.70 million, while domestic consumption is to match the 2026/27 crop. Ending stocks are to hold at 569,000 tonnes.

Japan

As for Japan, it will continue to be one of the major canola importers. However those for 2026/27 are to dip to 2.15 million tonnes from 2.16 million the year before.

The USDA attaché in Tokyo said the bulk of Japan’s canola imports come from Canada, but the supplier’s share has dropped from about 96 per cent of Japan’s imports to around 83 per cent. Australia has remained a major source of canola for Japan.

“Japanese crushers have noted higher oil extraction rates from Australian canola compared to Canadian seeds, though meal extraction rates are converse,” the attaché said.

Japan’s domestic canola crop is to be only 3,000 tonnes.

Virtually all of the country’s canola will be crushed, with a mere 5,000 tonnes for feed, waste and domestic consumption.

Ending stocks are to remain stable at 200,000 tonnes.

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The USDA also issued its quarterly grain stocks report with stocks for soybeans bigger than anticipated, while those for corn were smaller and wheat virtually matched the average trade guess.

USDA forecasts seeded acres for 2026/27

The USDA predicted corn planting intentions at 95.34 million acres, which is down from 98.79 million acres U.S. farmers seeded last year, but less than the market projection of 94.37 million.

The shift away from corn to soybeans was not as large as the trade believed there was going to be.

“That was the big conversation, how many corn acres there was going to be, especially with the beans this year,” said Ryan Etnner, broker with Allendale Inc. in McHenry, Illinois.

• For daily market updates, visit the Western Producer Markets Desk

The report placed soybean acres at 84.70 million, up from 81.22 million last year, but short of the market projection of 85.55 million.

Ettner said the total wheat acres caught his eye, with how close the USDA was to the trade guess. The department placed its forecast at 43.78 million acres and trade called for 44.79 million. Last year, farmers planted 45.33 million acres of wheat.

Fertilizer issues could be down the road

The broker added that rising fertilizer prices did not have as great an effect on the switch from corn to soybeans. He said most U.S. farmers apply their fertilizer in the fall and what will go on the fields this spring was largely bought before the Middle East war.

“The bigger concern is fall of this year, if things don’t calm down over there by that point,” Ettner said. “Most people are assuming this is a larger 2027 issue if the war is still going on by the fall.”

USDA Planting Intentions (Millions of acres)

1 acre = 0.405 hectares

Grain stocks

As for grain stocks as of March 1, Ettner said there was some pre-report speculation that total corn could be as high as 9.30 billion bushels.

“The quarterly stocks all came in line. The one concern was ‘what if corn had come in bigger?’ and it didn’t,” Ettner said.

He added that corn stocks were going to be very large simply because of the size of the 2025/26 harvest.

USDA Grain Stocks as of March 1 (Billions of bushels)

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As for the Canadian soybean crush, StatCan has not published any new data since it released its report for the July crush in August 2025. The agency said any numbers have been “suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act.”

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“Crude oil is going to be a big driver in this environment and therefore (soyoil), but there’s a lot of political stuff too,” Derwin said.

Along with the Middle East war, Derwin pointed to coming renewable fuel and biodiesel policies in the United States and the renegotiating of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement.

U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled on March 27 to announce the latest renewable fuel proposals coming from the Environmental Protection Agency. Meanwhile the review process for CUSMA is already underway.

Derwin said it’s important to protect oneself from possible wide swings in canola, which could range from C$600 to C$800 per tonne.

“It’s more of what happens if it goes to either one of those places,” Derwin said. “You don’t want to lock in too much in case of production concerns. There’s some big swing potential here.”

Added to that is the forthcoming canola crop.

“We’re a little bit early where any kind of seeding concerns or weather-driven concerns come into play,” he said, emphasizing that could change in the coming weeks and months.

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Soybeans

China has been forecasted to see slightly more soybeans planted in 2026/27, due to government assistance and improved domestic prices.

For 2025/26, the USDA indicated 10.80 million tonnes of soybeans have been purchased by China or are being shipped to the country. Also, the USDA said 2.19 million tonnes are destined for unknown destinations and it’s not yet clear how much of the amount is destined for China. Soybean imports are to increase in 2026/27, but China’s demand is expected to slow over the coming years.

Canola

There’s to be a small increase in canola acres in 2026/27 as China begins expanding its winter canola area to idle land. Its winter canola currently accounts for less than 10 per cent of China’s total canola production.

In February, China removed or reduced the tariffs on its imports of Canadian canola seed and meal. Since then, China has bought 650,000 tonnes of canola from Canada.

Corn

As China continues to boost its domestic corn production, its import program has become more heavily focused on Brazil corn. Two years ago Brazil corn accounted for 47 per cent of China’s imports, followed by the U.S. at 26 per cent and Ukraine at 20 per cent. In 2025/26, Brazil stands at 61 per cent, with Russia at 17 per cent and Myanmar at 11 per cent. Ukraine and the U.S. fell to nine and one per cent, respectively.

Wheat

Although China’s 2026/27 wheat crop was planted later than normal, yields are projected to be a pinch higher than in 2025/26 while harvest area holds. Guaranteed returns have encouraged farmers to maintain 2025/26 levels. Reduced ending stocks in 2025/26 are to lead to a further decline in 2026/27.

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“Right now in South America, I have a corn crop being equal to last year. In my gut, I think it’s going to be below last year when the safrinha crop is finally harvested,” he said.

Issues with safrinha corn

Although that second Brazil corn crop is more than 91 per cent planted, Cordonnier pointed out there are more than 3.21 million acres still needing to be seeded and stressed the main planting window has closed with dry weather ahead.

“Planting (corn) at this point is very risky. They’ll run out of moisture before the crop has a chance to mature,” he said. “They’re already worried about the dry weather in the state of Paraná.”

Cordonnier said Brazil’s first corn crop is more than halfway harvested, but about 20 points behind this time last year. He said that isn’t too much of a concern.

He recently cut his call on Brazilian corn production this year to 133 million tonnes, from an earlier estimate of 135 million. That compares with the United States Department of Agriculture’s forecast of 132 million tonnes and 138.3 million tonnes by Brazil’s Conab.

Argentina corn

As for corn crop in Argentina, Cordonnier said about nine per cent has been combined and the average yield is about 131 bushels per acre.

“They’re harvesting the best part right now,” he said, noting that yields will likely decline as combining progresses.

Dry conditions in parts of Argentina created a wide gap in yields, from as little as 40 bu./ac. to as much as 200. Cordonnier said more recent rainfall has stabilized Argentina’s corn.

Soybeans

As for soybeans, Cordonnier said Brazil remains on pace to produce its biggest crop on record. However, it likely won’t be as large as initially expected.

The Brazil soybean harvest was about 61 per cent finished, nine points behind last year.

“It’s on the slow side. That’s because heavy rains continue to fall across northern Brazil,” Cordonnier said.

In southern Brazil, such as Rio Grande do Sul, soybeans were planted late due to drought and that state’s harvest is barely underway, Cordonnier said.

Aside from a very small amount of fields, the soybean harvest had yet to start in Argentina, he added, projecting yields of about 56 bu./ac. in the country’s core soybean-growing area.

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Chuck Penner, founder of LeftField Commodity Research, spoke at the 2026 Canadian Crops Convention about supply and demand in the Canadian grains sector and how a strong 2025 could lead to a complex 2026.

WHY IT MATTERS: Canadian farmers will soon be planting the 2026 crops, with large old crop supplies complicating the market outlook.

“We talk in ag markets always about cycles,” said Penner. “The market is cycling. And so right now, we’re in a supply-heavy situation. But is that going to continue? I would argue ‘no.’”

“What we have is this comfortable carryover,” he continued noting that can lead to a complacent mindset in grain markets.

Canada produced an aggregated 106 million tonnes of grains, oilseeds, pulses and other crops in 2025, 10 million more than the previous year.

“So, what are we doing with that grain?” Penner asked.

Farmer deliveries are already up three million tonnes over last year. Exports are at 25 million tonnes, up from the five-year average by around 2.5 million.

“That’s good, but it still doesn’t dispose of 10 million tonnes more production,” Penner said. “If we keep this pace up, and there are some really good signs that we will keep this pace up, then we will work that down to some degree.”

Despite what Penner referred to as a “heavy-supply mindset” hanging over the sector, prices are still moving, and he expects them to continue firming up.

Many crops see seasonal price peaks in the spring, but Penner cautioned that those commodities will start to tip over in early summer “and everybody’s going to freak out and talk about the heavy supplies again.”

One problem now is there is not much urgency in attracting acreage.

In tighter supply years, such as after the 2021 drought, buyers were desperate and some started contracting for 2022 new crop in October and November already. However, this year, the sentiment is “we’ll buy it when we need it,” said Penner.

Resolving heavy supply

For some major crops like barley, canola and soybeans, stocks-to-use ratios are wide, but Penner said those ratios will likely be a bit lower at the end of 2026-27.

“There’s a key reason for that,” he said. “What happens when we drop back to either average or to trend yields? It basically wipes out. It’s a far bigger influence on the supply situation for next year than acreage shifts.”

While acreage shifts are interesting, a return to average yields in Western Canada after the bumper crops of 2025-26 would “do a whole lot in terms of resolving the heavy supply situation that we have,” said Penner.

“If we move to an average yield or even a trend yield in those major crops, the supply numbers get close to the five-year average,” he said adding that supplies of oats, corn and soybeans may even become tight.

What to plant this year?

Penner said his recommendation for 2026 was to plant oats.

“If you all rush out and plant oats now, of course that effect is gone. But barley and durum supplies should remain comfortable. It’s the pulses and special crops that are going to take a couple of years to really resolve the heavy supply situation.”

Currently, he said global supplies will favour the buyer.

“2025-26 was a good year globally. No question,” he said. “The question is, can it repeat?”

Penner offered general market thoughts on crops for 2026.

Wheat

Wheat saw record global and Canadian production with prices remaining relatively flat. Penner pointed out wheat is almost never touched by trade disruptions or tariffs. Canada is also exporting durum almost at last year’s record pace, even with strong European and North African crops.

Barley

Barley had a record yield last year with the largest Canadian crop since 2020-21, and prices are rising. Penner said Canada has strong barley exports to countries like China, Japan and Saudi Arabia.

Oats

Penner said the main concern with oats is a weaker export pace. Other export markets like Australia and the U.S., which saw its biggest oat crop in over 10 years, could challenge Canada. He said he thought soft prices could discourage acreage in 2026 and leave Canada with “some really tight supplies of oats.”

Canola

Canola production and yields were strong globally, leading to increased supplies, but according to Penner, “the demand side is the bigger picture.” With the market more certain following U.S. biofuels and potential tariffs, prices have continued to rise. He added if canola drops back to average levels, supplies will tighten and demand will strengthen.

Peas

Peas also had near-record yields in Canada which, combined with a strong Russian crop, have led to a global glut. Though imports from India are not what they have been, Penner said other buyers like China have also stepped in. He said there is a sizable carryover into 2026, especially for green peas.

Lentils

Penner said demand is fairly static for green lentils but could be stronger for red lentils. On both fronts, he said it must get stronger to deal with supply, but it is “hard to see that happening.” He added there is a huge supply of green lentils now hanging over the market, but “the red picture will be more balanced.”

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While the U.S. soybean crush continued to expand, StatCan didn’t include any soybean crush data for 2025 due to confidentiality requirements under the Statistics Act.

Canola

Canadian canola crushers took in more than 11.55 million tonnes of the oilseed last year, compared to the five-year average of 10.16 million. In the U.S., which has a far smaller canola crop to work with, its crush came to 2.02 million tonnes, a little more than the average of 1.98 million.

Soybeans

At more than 60 million tonnes, the U.S. soybean crush continued to expand with it far exceeding its five-year averages for seed, oil and meal. For the Canadian crush, it was receding from recent highs in 2022.

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Dennis Lange, industry development pulses specialist for Manitoba Ag, said in a March 10 interview that any such changes “would be an option for somebody who hasn’t had fertilizer plans set up already.” Lange said if there were to be any alterations, the most likely crops to change to would be soybeans and pulses.

Fertilizer, crude oil prices rise

Fertilizer prices have spiked, following sharp hikes in crude oil prices that started when the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.

The day before, urea futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were about US$442 per tonne in the nearby contracts. By March 3, urea hit US$590 and closed March 10 at US$585.

In comparison, the April contract for West Texas Intermediate jumped from US$67 per barrel on Feb. 27, to almost US$95 six days later. On March 9, WTI topped out at more than US$119/barrel before closing at around US$83.50.

Fall fertilizer

Lange said Manitoba farmers managed to get down a good amount of fertilizer in the fall after a number of extensions to the application deadline following frequent rains.

“For now, I don’t foresee any big swings because there was a fair bit of fertilizer that went down last fall, on the nitrogen side anyways,” Lange said.

He added that growers will likely keep to their crop rotations and give consideration to weed issues, especially when it comes to planting peas.

“It’s the status quo for the most part, but if there’s unseeded acres or unplanned acres, that might be a shift to the crop set that might be more economical,” Lange said.

StatCan forecast

On March 5, Statistics Canada issued its planted area projections for 2026/27 and forecast less pulse acres for Manitoba while soybeans are to increase.

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