“As they are waging war with the entire world, they will not make an exception for Brazil. That certainly will not happen,” he told GloboNews TV. “But when we sit at the negotiating table, they will bring up ethanol, and we will bring up sugar.”

Why it matters: Crop powerhouse Brazil expects to be drawn into U.S. trade tensions

When U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled his plan to raise import tariffs, details of which are expected in early April, a White House fact sheet on the move cited Brazil’s ethanol tariffs as an example of unfair trade practices.

That led Brazil’s Energy and Mining Minister Alexandre Silveira to call a potential U.S. tariff on Brazilian ethanol unreasonable, stressing that the two countries have historically negotiated ethanol and sugar trade together.

Brazil is one of the world’s largest sugar producers and the vast majority of its ethanol also comes from sugarcane, compared to U.S. ethanol made largely with corn.

Brazilian officials often argue that the tariff imposed by the U.S. on sugar imports outside preferential quotas is too high, exceeding Brasilia’s tariff on ethanol imports.

Haddad said the exchange of services with the United States, where it is a major exporter relative to Brazil, could also be a key issue in negotiations.

The minister stressed Brazil’s stance is not to “add fuel to the fire” of the tariff dispute, so it is waiting for the U.S. to outline its approach to bilateral trade.

“Meanwhile, Brazil is reviewing its entire import and export agenda, item by item, so that when we go to the negotiating table, we can also present our demands,” he said, stressing that the approach would be “reciprocity, not retaliation.”

— Reporting by Marcela Ayres

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“The trade war continues to benefit Brazilian agriculture, and Brazil as a secure supplier for customers who demand food,” Aurelio Pavinato said in a call with analysts following the company’s fourth-quarter results.

SLC is one of Brazil’s largest grain and cotton producers.

Why it matters: A trade war may allow Brazil to swoop into markets while Canadian and U.S. agricultural goods are tied up in disputes

The upside to Latin America’s No. 1 economy would be linked to strong demand from China, the world’s top soybean importer, as the Asian country’s reliance on U.S. soy “decreased a lot” since a previous 2018-2019 trade war, Pavinato said.

China last week retaliated swiftly to fresh U.S. duties announced by Trump, imposing hikes of 10 per cent and 15 per cent in levies covering $21 billion (C$30.2 billion) worth of American agricultural goods, including meat and soybeans.

Pavinato estimated China will import 80 million metric tons of soybeans from Brazil and 21 million tons from the U.S. this year.

The trade war is already strengthening premiums for Brazilian soybeans over Chicago benchmark prices, he said, adding that they have the potential to rise 10 per cent – precisely the tariff rate applied by China on U.S. soy.

Pavinato noted that China has also cut its reliance on U.S. corn and that Brazil would soon be able to meet all of China’s cotton import demand.

The key question, he said, was whether there would be a new deal between China and the U.S. on agricultural goods, as in the previous trade war the two superpowers managed to reach an agreement.

A deal like the one seen in the first Trump administration might not be beneficial for Brazil as it could lead China to import more from the U.S.

“But we don’t believe it will happen,” Pavinato said.

“There may be a deal, but agriculture would not be its pillar. The 2025 trade war seems much more geopolitical than commercial.”

— Reporting by Roberto Samora

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“If this works, then we can come up with a method to expand at a scale where we can add cold plasma to complement existing seed treatments to boost their growth and defense against insect herbivores,” said Rupesh Kariyat, associate professor of crop entomology at the University of Arkansas in a news release.

The study was published in the journal Nature in January.

What is cold plasma?

Cold plasma is the fourth state of matter alongside solid, liquid and gas. It’s created by electrical discharge in a low-pressure gas. It’s the most common form of matter in the universe. It’s found mainly in stars, but it’s also what makes up the northern lights.

On earth, it’s used in fluorescent lighting, which creates light with little heat.

Cold plasma as a seed treatment

University of Arkansas researchers treated rice seeds with cold plasma and the irrigated them with cold plasma-activated water. Water treated with cold plasma has some antimicrobial properties, the news release said.

They also independently measured the growth of Fall armyworm on a diet partially made up of cold plasma-treated water.

Fall armyworm is a pest that damage hay and small grains, according to the university’s extension service.

Researchers found that treating the rice seeds this way could negatively impact fall armyworms’ growth and development.

They also saw signs of improved plant growth from the treated seeds, including more leaf growth.

The seeds also germinated slightly faster, though untreated plants eventually caught up. This suggests that cold plasma could benefit initial plant growth but is less beneficial in later stages of the plant’s growth cycle.

Other uses in agriculture

Karyiat and fellow researcher Mahfuzur Rahman said they hope to apply cold plasma to the field of organic food production.

“In the future, if we can optimize this technology for organic production, it will create a very new avenue for organic food growth,” Rahman said.

Researchers from the University of Alberta have demonstrated that cold plasma can be used to decontaminate grain damaged by mycotoxins. High temperature treatment is ineffective against mycotoxins, and while they can be degraded using chemicals, those leave residues and have environmental effects.

Cold plasma does not leave residue.

“By treating these grains, we can prevent financial loss to the industry and prevent health effects to animals and humans that are using these grains,” said University of Alberta researcher Ehsan Feizohalli.

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But construction is on hold following the Trump Administration’s freeze on some agricultural grants and loans as it conducts a broad review of federal spending.

Why it matters: Planned U.S. tariffs are supposed to reduce Canadian farmers’ ability to compete with their American counterparts

Now, about 500 tons of baled alfalfa sits untouched in stacks in his fields, and a bill from a Colorado equipment manufacturer is past due. Last week, he traveled with a group of farmers to Washington, D.C. to meet with lawmakers and try to get their frozen USDA grant funding released.

Farmers and food organizations across the country are cutting staff, halting investments and missing key funding amid a USDA freeze on a broad swath of grants, more than two dozen farmers and agricultural support groups in seven states told Reuters.

All this comes as Trump has imposed new tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China, sparking trade wars with the biggest buyers of U.S. farm products.

Trump on March 6 said he would exempt farm products like potash fertilizer from the tariffs until April 2. But if they eventually go into effect, the tariffs would hurt the $191 billion American agricultural export sector, raise costs for farmers struggling with low crop prices and send consumer grocery prices higher, farm groups warn.

“As the president said, farmers need to start growing crops to sell here in the U.S.,” Powell-Palm said, referencing a March 3 post by Trump on his Truth Social website in which Trump said farmers should prepare to sell more domestic product. “This is what we are trying to do. We just need our approved grant funding to be released.”

Trump has historically enjoyed widespread support across the U.S. Farm Belt, where he won most states in the November election. But recent actions – like a freeze on most humanitarian aid and a broad review of federal spending that paused disbursements – have disrupted some agricultural markets and caused stress and confusion in farm country.

For example, some agricultural production lines have been halted. Two farmers, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive personal financial matters, told Reuters they were weeks away from being forced to file for bankruptcy because of the USDA freeze.

White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly said the administration is making agencies more efficient, including to better serve farmers.

A USDA spokesperson said the administration is reviewing the frozen programs.

Can American farmers expect aid?

Though the U.S. farm sector previously faced sweeping trade wars under Trump, many have remained loyal even as his policies and tariffs damaged American farm sales and resulted in lost global market share that soybean growers still haven’t recovered. But many farmers last fall believed they were so politically important to Trump winning back the White House, that he would help cover their financial losses.

After all, it happened before. Under the first Trump administration, farmers received about $217 billion (C$312.7 billion) in farm payments, including crop support, disaster, and aid programs – more than in any prior four-year period since 1933, according to a Reuters examination of USDA data. Adjusted for inflation, the only period with more spending on farmers was 1984 to 1988, when a farm economic crisis battered rural America.

Agriculture secretary Brooke Rollins has said USDA is considering direct payments to farmers again if trade wars lead to farm losses.

Currently, the USDA administers hundreds of programs that support the agriculture sector, either through grants and loans, or direct payments and other subsidies.

From financial assistance programs alone, U.S. farmers and ranchers received $161 billion (C$232.0 billion) from USDA between fiscal years 2019 through 2023, according to a December report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office.

Several of the grant recipients interviewed by Reuters said their money came from former President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which provided more than $20 billion ($28.8 billion) for farm and forestry conservation programs.

Trump froze IRA disbursements in his first days in office, though the White House said on January 22 that the freeze only applied to clean energy projects.

Rollins said on February 20 that the agency is beginning to unfreeze some IRA money for farmers, but the scope of the release is unclear.

The USDA did not comment on how much money has been released from IRA or other funding sources.

The White House did not respond to questions about under what authority the funds are frozen or when they may be released.

The full scope of economic impact on farmers is not known.

Two federal judges have blocked Trump from issuing broad freezes of federal spending.

‘Your word means something’

Many farmers are worried they won’t be spared from Trump’s government downsizing. Seeking answers, farmers have called their Congressional representatives and local contacts at field USDA offices. Sometimes, the calls were answered. Sometimes, not.

Dave Walton, a row crop farmer in Muscatine County, Iowa, said farmers had expected Trump’s administration to improve the federal safety net, not slash it.

“In farming, your word means something. If you sign a contract, that means something,” said Walton, who said he’s waiting on $6,000 from a USDA-funded program for climate-friendly farming.

Grain farmer Steve Tucker was awarded a $400,000 grant through Agricultural Marketing Service, which promotes domestic and foreign farm markets, to build a mill in southwest Nebraska.

He had planned to grind this year’s sorghum crop into flour and sell it to U.S. snack manufacturers, but now that’s on hold.

The broader grant freeze has also affected some farmers’ customers. Ed and Becky Morgan scrimped for years to grow their livestock herd as demand for their sausage varieties boomed, thanks to local public schools hungry for lunchtime links.

But the fate of USDA grants that help schools buy foodstuffs from local farmers – like the Morgans’ flavored sausages – remains uncertain, said Spencer Moss, the executive director of the West Virginia Food and Farm Coalition in Charleston, West Virginia.

Some of the frozen USDA money is linked to soil and water conservation, organic and local food, regional and rural food systems, and minority and women farmers, according to Reuters interviews with farmers and farm organizations.

Food and farm groups with grants unrelated to conservation also told Reuters they were not receiving promised funds.

The West Virginia Food and Farm Coalition received about 80 per cent of its funding from federal sources, including USDA nutrition programs that help low-income consumers buy more produce, Moss said.

The group, which works with local farmers markets and provides technical assistance to farmers, said it was still waiting for guidance from the USDA on its invoices, Moss said. The group has been paid for some grant-related invoices, but has been told it won’t – at least for now – be paid for expenses incurred after January 19, after Trump took office.

“We’ve made promises to our farmers, because the federal government signed contracts with us,” Moss said.

Farmers affected by USAID freezes

Farmers have also been affected by spending freezes at other agencies, like USAID, which support programs that buy bulk farm commodities.

At the State Department, the Trump administration has said it would release less than $100 million (C$144.1 million) of the roughly $40 billion (C$57.6 billion) in USAID programs administered annually before the freeze, according to a list of exemptions reviewed by Reuters.

The Supreme Court on March 5 ruled that the administration cannot withhold payments to aid groups for work already performed.

The freeze has exacerbated pain felt by farmers under pressure from low grain prices. The number of U.S. farm bankruptcy filings jumped 55 per cent in 2024, compared to a year earlier, according to the latest United States Court data.

Jillian Blanchard, vice president of climate change and environmental justice at the nonprofit Lawyers for Good Government, said the group was working with about 100 grantees who are impacted by the USDA spending freeze.

“You need to have certainty if you’re going into business with the federal government,” she said.

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Maximum and minimum temperatures in most parts of the country will be above-average in the month, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department, told a virtual news conference.

The country is likely to receive below-average rainfall in February and could see fewer cold days than normal in the month, he said.

“Below normal rainfall, along with higher temperatures over the plains of northwest India, would have a significant adverse impact on standing crops like wheat at flowering and grain filling stages. Crops like mustard and chickpea may also experience early maturity,” Mohapatra said.

India’s Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh states in the north, along with Madhya Pradesh in central India, form the country’s top wheat-growing regions.

Winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas are planted from October to December and require cold weather conditions during their growth and maturity stages for optimal yields.

Reuters reported on Thursday that temperatures in February were likely to remain above average, especially in the northern states where wheat and rapeseed are grown.

In January, minimum and maximum temperatures were above average as the country received lower than normal rainfall, Mohapatra said.

Hot and unseasonably warm weather leads to lower wheat production and sharp drawdowns in state reserves. As a result, wheat prices hit a record 33,250 rupees (C$555.94) per metric ton earlier this month.

Any drop in the rapeseed crop could force India, the world’s biggest vegetable oil importer, to step up its cooking oil imports, dealers said.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

— Additional reporting by Shilpa Jamkhandikar

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The new measures will establish guidelines for quantifying, reporting, and verifying greenhouse gases (GHGs) associated with the production of biofuel feedstock commodity crops grown in the U.S. In addition, the guidelines will facilitate the recognition of climate-conscious agriculture for clean transportation fuel programs, creating new market opportunities for biofuel feedstock producers while enhancing climate benefits.

The interim rule was made with regards to three crops: corn, soybeans and sorghum. It also allows for climate-smart agricultural practices such that could reduce GHGs or sequester carbon, including reduced- and no-till agriculture, cover cropping, and nutrient management practices such as the use of nitrification inhibitors. The new regulations allow for farmers to utilize these practices individually or in combination.

Standards were also adopted to quantify, track and report the effects of these practices. These include: chain of custody standards for entities in the biofuel supply chain, including traceability and recordkeeping standards; auditing and verification requirements; and climate-smart agriculture practice standards for the biofuel feedstock crops included under the rule.

The USDA believes the improved guidelines will heighten credibility and confidence in biofuel feedstock crop production, create new marketing opportunities for U.S. farmers, and generate environmental benefits like improved water and soil quality.

“Today’s announcement from USDA reinforces the important role climate-smart agriculture plays in our rural economy, including in fueling clean transportation solutions, as well as the importance of providing pathways for unbundled, science-based accounting of the carbon benefits of climate-smart practices that help farmers earn more for what they grow,” said White House Senior Advisor for International Climate Policy John Podesta.

“The new guidelines are a win for farmers, biofuel producers, the public, and the environment. The action today marks an important milestone in the development of market-based conservation opportunities for agriculture,” said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack.

Podesta and Vilsack are expected to leave their posts after U.S. president-elect Donald Trump is sworn in on Jan. 20.

The USDA also added an online tool called the USDA Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator to help growers quantify the carbon intensity of their crops.

The interim rule will be posted for public inspection on Jan. 16 and will be published on Jan. 17. Interested parties may submit comments to the USDA during the 60-day public comment period.

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The plantation will be conducted in collaboration with Terviva, a U.S. company with over a decade of research and cultivation expertise in Pongamia, Idemitsu said in a statement.

Pongamia, a leguminous plant distributed in Southeast Asia and Oceania, is a highly efficient non-edible oilseed crop that does not compete with food production, according to Idemitsu.

Idemitsu, aiming to establish a supply system for 500,000 kilolitres of SAF annually by 2030, said it has also invested in Terviva, it said, but did not disclose the investment details.

Through the trial plantation, Idemitsu will evaluate long-term cultivation methods for Pongamia and how to optimize the supply chain from cultivation to SAF production.

Idemitsu will also explore additional uses for Pongamia, including creating carbon credits through afforestation, producing biomass power pellets from Pongamia shells, and using pressed oilseed cake as livestock feed.

Oil extracted from its seeds is expected to serve as a feedstock for sustainable aviation fuel production, the company said.

SAF is considered crucial for the aviation sector to reach its goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, but its adoption remains in a nascent phase.

SAF makes up only around 0.3 per cent of global jet fuel usage and is projected to reach just 0.7 per cent by 2025, according to data from airline trade body IATA. Experts emphasize that the production rate of the green fuel needs to grow quickly for the sector to achieve its emissions targets.

— Reporting by Yuka Obayashi

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The Communist Party daily, Granma, said a state agricultural company had partnered with the unnamed firm for three years to cultivate the grain on 3,000 hectares (7,413 acres) in western Pinar del Rio province, hinting the lease and acreage would be extended.

“For the first time, a process of handing over land to a foreign company is being carried out to take charge of its cultivation,” engineer Jorge Feliz Chamizo, who is the deputy director of the Granos de Los Palacios agroindustrial company, was quoted as stating.

Cuba consumes up to 700,000 metric tons of rice annually, most imported from Vietnam.

But the import dependent county’s main staple has been in short supply in recent years due to an economic depression sparked by a lack of convertible currency to import food, fuel, spare parts, raw materials and agricultural inputs.

Local rice production peaked at around 250,000 metric tons of consumable rice in 2018 before the crisis began, and has fallen more than 80 per cent since then, the National Statistics Office has reported.

Granma also reported the venture would be the first to hire labor directly, instead of through a state-run hiring hall.

Many investors complain they are forced to hire labor through the hiring halls in hard currency which then pay their employees in pesos and in general make managing their labor force more difficult.

Foreign investment has declined in recent years due to tougher U.S. sanctions, according to the government, though no statistics are available.

Western diplomats and businesses also report difficulties repatriating profits due to the country’s cash shortage.

Prime Minister Manuel Marrero said in December the government would change the labor practice as part of reforms this year to the foreign investment law.

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The 2024-2035 action plan, jointly issued by the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration and other government departments, also encourages companies and private capital to establish development funds to support the whole grain industry.

“By 2035, the people’s awareness of cereal grains will be significantly improved, the proportion of cereal grains in residents’ dietary consumption will increase significantly, and the level of cereal grain consumption will basically match the level of (China’s) economic and social development,” it said in a notice to various government agencies.

China is the world’s biggest cereal grain grower, producing 652 million metric tons in 2024. However, it remains reliant on imports of corn, wheat and such to feed its population of 1.4 billion people.

For example, China ships large volumes of higher quality wheat from Canada, Australia and Russia to make pasta and baked goods.

The world’s largest grains buyer imported 59.08 million tons of cereal grains and flour in 2023. Raising consumption and quality of its domestic produce will cut China’s demand from the global market.

As part of the plan, China said it would “vigorously promote” the health benefits of consuming cereal grains and recommend cereal grain foods in nutritional dietary guidance, particularly in government offices, campuses and military camps.

Cereal grains include wheat, corn, rice, barley, sorghum, buckwheat and oats. A large portion of China’s corn production is for livestock feed.

China said it would drive the breeding and planting of grain varieties suitable for food consumption to raise the production and quality of grains.

It also called for active participation in the formulation of international cereal grain standards and deeper international exchanges and cooperation.

To drive production, it said it would cultivate a group of leading whole grain food processing enterprises and high-quality cereal grain industry clusters.

— Reporting by Beijing newsroom

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Cocoa beans are the vital ingredient in chocolate. The world’s cocoa – harvested from the Theobroma cacao tree, native to the Amazon rainforest – is now mostly produced in West African countries, principally Ghana and Ivory Coast, and in Latin America.

Many of the world’s cocoa beans are bought by large trade houses like Cargill, Olam and Barry Callebaut, which is also a chocolate maker.

In Ghana and Ivory Coast, the top two producers, these trading houses pre-buy beans via government contracts ahead of the growing season, with the crop then delivered during the October-to-September growing season.

Some traders also process beans into powder, butter and liquor that is used in products from chocolate bars to face cream, and then sell these to chocolate makers.

How do futures fit in?

Futures markets play a central role in determining industry-wide prices of commodities. They allow investors to buy and sell contracts to deliver anything from oil and pork to gold and cocoa, at a specified date and price in the future.

The market is also used by buyers of the physical commodity – in the case of cocoa that’s the traders and food producers – to manage risk.

Think of a trader who puts in an order for cocoa beans at a certain price, expecting to sell them or related products at a higher price in the future – a so-called “long” position. They need to protect themselves against the risk that prices drop by the time they receive them and they cannot sell at the price they had expected.

Traders balance out their exposure by taking short positions in the futures market, in effect betting that prices will fall.

Cocoa futures markets are significant. They dictate the prices of physical beans, in turn influencing the price of chocolate bought by consumers, the revenues of cocoa producing nations, and the income received by farmers.

Who else can get involved?

Speculators like hedge funds also trade futures. They don’t typically touch cocoa beans, but instead try to make money off the rising and falling value of the commodity in financial markets.

Some hedge funds use intelligence, like weather data, to work out how supply will cause prices of beans to rise and fall, and make bets accordingly. Others use algorithms and trading systems to determine how risky the market is, and how many bets to take.

Hedge funds seek to avoid holding futures contracts to their expiration. That’s because when the contract expires it is settled with physical delivery – cocoa beans would be delivered to the fund’s doorstep.

What happened to cocoa this year?

Cocoa supplies hit an historic low last year. Adverse weather and disease that hit trees in West Africa crippled production. The industry was already struggling with sector mismanagement, smuggling, higher production costs and illegal gold mining.

With lower supply of physical beans, prices climbed to historical highs on futures markets. Hedge funds and other speculators began to exit the market, booking profits and avoiding the growing risk from price swings.

Ghana, following its disastrous 2023/24 harvest, delayed bean deliveries by a year – the diminished supply increased prices further.

Over the past decade, the cash hedge funds and other speculators had pumped into the market had made it easier for cocoa traders to buy and sell futures contracts.

As hedge funds withdrew from futures in the first five months of this year, liquidity in the market fell, in turn stoking price swings and adding fuel to soaring prices.

On Wednesday, New York cocoa futures prices hit a new record.

— Reporting by Tom Wilson, Nell Mackenzie and Maytaal Angel

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