Why it matters: Already battered by tariffs and tariff threats, further trade disruptions threaten serious harm to Canadian farmers.

At the same time, Trump opened another front in a global trade war by slapping 25 per cent secondary tariffs on any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela, a directive that sent oil prices climbing.

According to Canada Energy Regulator data, Canada does not import oil from Venezuela, though most recent statistics date to 2023.

Not all tariffs coming on April 2

At the White House, Trump told reporters not all the new tariffs would be announced on April 2, and said he may give “a lot of countries” breaks on tariffs. He provided no details.

A White House official declined to say exactly when sector-specific tariffs on autos, pharmaceuticals or semiconductor chips would come into effect, noting that was still “TBD (to be determined) and at the president’s discretion.”

The official cautioned against expecting a tariff reprieve, adding, “The president is determined to implement reciprocal tariffs that are very strong. People should expect that.”

Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal reported earlier that the administration was narrowing its approach to the broad batch of levies Trump has been saying for weeks would be imposed on April 2 and could delay sector-specific tariffs.

U.S. stocks ended Monday broadly higher on optimism that the tariffs set to be detailed next week may not be as extensive as expected. The S&P 500 index gained nearly 1.8 per cent to close at its highest in more than two weeks.

Meanwhile, Trump said the U.S. would impose tariffs on autos, pharmaceuticals and aluminum in “the very near future,” arguing that the U.S. would need all those products in the event of wars or other problems.

“We’ve been ripped off by every country,” Trump said after a meeting of his cabinet, predicting that the expected tariffs would raise “rather astronomical” amounts of money for U.S. coffers, allowing tax rates to remain low or come down.

Which countries are in the crosshairs?

Trump said the April 2 tariffs will mark a “Liberation Day” for the U.S. economy. They are aimed at shrinking a $1.2 trillion global goods trade deficit by raising U.S. levies to levels charged by other countries and counteracting their non-tariff trade barriers. Two senior Trump officials – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and top White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett – said last week the administration is expected to focus the April 2 reciprocal tariff news on a narrower set of countries with the biggest trade surpluses and high tariff and non-tariff barriers.

In a request for public comments on reciprocal tariffs, the Office of the United States Trade Representative expressed particular interest in submissions for the largest U.S. trade partners, and those with the highest goods trade surpluses.

USTR named Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Britain and Vietnam as being of particular interest, adding that they cover 88 per cent of total goods trade with the U.S.

— Reporting by Andrea Shalal, Timothy Gardner, David Lawder and Steve Holland

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Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Friday he would terminate the measure, which many producers cited as one of their top concerns for the 2025 election.

The government will also maintain the increase in the Lifetime Capital Gains Exemption limit to $1,250,000 on the sale of small business shares and farming and fishing property, according to a news release.

The government is also pledging it will “introduce legislation affecting the increase in the Lifetime Capital Gains Exemption limit in due course.”

“Canada is a country of builders,” said Carney in the release. “Cancelling the hike in capital gains tax will catalyze investment across our communities and incentivize builders, innovators, and entrepreneurs to grow their businesses in Canada, creating more higher paying jobs.”

Many commodity groups in Canada have formally criticized the capital gains tax, specifically the changes to the inclusion rate.

In June, Grain Growers of Canada (GGC) Executive Director Kyle Larkin called on the government “to exempt intergenerational transfers and allow them to be taxed at the original capital gains inclusion rate” after GGC research “revealed that the capital gains inclusion rate changes will increase taxes by 30 per cent on family-run grain farms.”

The Canadian Federation of Agriculture (CFA) said the change would have a negative impact on farm succession planning.

Acoalition led by the Canadian Canola Growers Association (CCGA) Canadian Cattle Association (CCA) and GGC called on the government to “reverse its decision to administer the proposed capital gains inclusion rate legislation.”

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Through government-backed newspaper Ta Kung Pao, Beijing accused the US of forcing the deal “through despicable means”, and claimed that if this was completed: “The United States will definitely use it for political purposes … China’s shipping and trade there will inevitably be subject to the United States.”

A deep rivalry

CK Hutchison’s decision to sell its ports, which it has operated since 1997, to a US-led buyer came after the US president, Donald Trump, criticised Chinese influence over this strategically vital waterway. In his inaugural address, Trump claimed, falsely, that “China is operating the Panama Canal” and vowed “we’re taking it back”. In fact, data shows that the majority of traffic through the canal goes to or from the US.

This has stoked fears in Beijing that US companies operating ports on the canal will do Washington’s bidding and potentially seek to restrict China’s access. Beijing’s angry response indicates the rivalry between the two great powers is deep and ongoing.

While it is likely that this rivalry will continue to intensify under Trump, the president is unpredictable. Indeed, he sees unpredictability as a virtue – a way to keep advisers and foreign leaders on their toes.

When asked last year whether he would support Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, Trump gave his own twist on the longstanding US policy of “strategic ambiguity”, saying: “I don’t want to reveal my cards … I wouldn’t want to give away any negotiating abilities by giving information like that to any reporter.”

This means there are multiple plausible outcomes for the US-China relationship in the second Trump administration.

A challenge to U.S. power

On the one hand, there is a very strong, bipartisan consensus in Washington that China poses a systemic, generational challenge to American power. Whereas Russia is viewed as a disruptor, China is a potential peer competitor that could build a new international order based on Beijing’s preferences and interests.

Since Trump’s first term in office, the US has been aggressively waging a “tech war” on China to limit its technological and military development, by cutting off access to high-end semiconductors designed by US companies.

This was intensified in the Biden years with new sanctions on Chinese tech companies, and the passage of the Chips and Science Act, designed to encourage the return of semiconductor manufacturing to the US. Defensive weapons sales to Taiwan had already been increased in Trump’s first term – and remained at high levels under Joe Biden.

What Biden called “extreme competition” with China has become the main organising principle of US foreign policy. While Republican lawmakers have, so far, been willing to go along with Trump’s diplomacy when it comes to Russia, there is likely to be less tolerance of a similar approach to China.

Unlike other US presidents, Trump does not seem to believe that alliances extend American power in the world – although he does still want the US to be the undisputed number one. In his second inaugural address, he vowed to “build the strongest military the world has ever seen”.

Trump sees China as an economic adversary, one of the reasons for imposing punitive tariffs of 20% on all incoming goods. China has retaliated with tariffs of its own and and has proposed more restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals. These are vital components of semiconductors, electric batteries and many weapons – and the global market is dominated by China.

A policy shift?

The US State Department recently signalled a possible shift in policy towards Taiwan, removing the phrase “we do not support Taiwan independence” from its fact sheet on Taiwan in February. This irritated Beijing, which sees the island as an integral part of China.

This subtle move away from the US’s longstanding “One China” policy – along with the tariffs and Trump’s hostility to alleged Chinese influence over the Panama Canal – suggests the continuation of a hostile, competitive approach to China.

That said, as Trump’s recent diplomacy with Russia and his comments about absorbing Greenland showed, he is not afraid to upend the established norms of US foreign policy. He enjoys provoking the “globalist” foreign policy establishment. He lauds his own deal-making abilities, and would not want to fight a war with China over Taiwan.

Trump is attracted to “strongman” leaders and claims to have “a great relationship with President Xi”. He achieves his goals by taking maximalist positions (for example, the punitive tariffs) which he uses to extract concessions. At a recent press conference, Trump stated: “I see so many things saying we don’t want China in this country. That’s not right. We want them to invest in the United States. That’s good. That’s a lot of money coming in.”

Dependence on Taiwan

Trump is well aware the US is heavily dependent on imported semiconductors from the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) – the world’s leading chip manufacturer – and has repeatedly accused Taiwan of “stealing” the US semiconductor industry. He recently took credit for TSMC’s announcement that it would invest a further US$100 billion (£77 billion) in three chip factories in Arizona, declaring that production of vital semiconductors inside the US was “a matter of national security”.

But it will take years for TSMC’s investments to come to fruition in terms of aiding US self-sufficiency in chip manufacture. In the meantime, it is not out of the question that Trump could seek a deal with China that guarantees US access to imported chips from Taiwan, in return for China absorbing the island peacefully. Given the historic importance of Taiwan to Beijing, this could appeal.

Avoiding war could also be popular with Trump voters who want to put “America first” without getting embroiled in foreign wars. Although the hawkish China consensus is firmly embedded in Washington, its continuation is not guaranteed while the mercurial Trump is at the helm.

—Maria Ryan is an associate professor of U.S. history at the University of Nottingham

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We saw evidence of this in the last forecast when a large storm system moved in off the Pacific. The northern portion of the storm system brought widespread and significant snowfall to north-central Alberta. It then proceeded to track into northern Saskatchewan before weakening as it entered northern Manitoba.

Meanwhile, the southern branch of the storm developed into a Colorado low—which then proceeded to not behave like a typical Colorado low. This low ended up tracking further east than expected and had little to no impact on Manitoba, except for some mild temperatures last Friday.

For this forecast period the weather models are showing a fairly quiet weather pattern will only a couple of chances of light snow as weak systems track along the boundary between the cold Arctic air to our north and milder air to the south. This is the big question mark for this forecast period: just where will this boundary be? Currently it looks like it will run roughly from northwestern Alberta, southeastwards into southern Manitoba.

It looks like the system is going to drift back and forth a couple of times, which will make temperature forecasts for the regions near the boundary a little tricky. Also, when weather systems are weak, the timing of these systems can easily change so confidence in the finer details of this forecast is lower than usual.

Alberta

Weak high pressure will bring sunny to partly cloudy skies on Wednesday with daytime highs across southern regions in the 7 to 10 C range. Further north, expect daytime highs to be in the 3 to 5 C range. On Thursday, a weak area of low pressure is forecasted to push in off the Pacific and track through south-central Alberta. This system looks as if it will mostly bring some clouds with maybe the odd flurry.

Skies will try to clear out on Friday before a second area of low pressure is forecast to drop southeastwards from northern B.C. and through the province on Saturday. This system will be much like Thursday’s system with most regions simply seeing more clouds than sun with the chance of some flurries or showers depending on the timing of low.

Some weak upper-level ridging is forecasted to begin building in on Sunday. This should push daytime highs into the low to mid teens across the south with highs over central regions pushing 10 C. A third low is then forecasted to cut through central regions on Tuesday bringing more clouds and some showers or flurries. This system should be out of the province by Wednesday with the weather models then showing a continuation of the slightly milder than average weather continuing.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

It is a cooler forecast for these two provinces as the boundary between cold arctic air and warmer Pacific air sets up across these regions. The boundary looks to stretch from the Battlefords to around Winnipeg. Areas near and to the north of this boundary will see sub-freezing highs on Wednesday. Those to the south will see highs in the 2 to 4 C range. The warmest temperatures are expected for southwestern Saskatchewan.

An area of low pressure will track out of Alberta on Thursday and will be in Minnesota by Friday. Southern regions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba will see a quick shot of warmer air with daytime highs forecasted to be in the 4 to 7 C range. Extreme southern regions may see the odd shower or flurry as this low tracks by. Behind the low, Arctic high pressure will drop southwards and bring much colder temperatures on Friday and Saturday. Expect daytime highs on Friday to struggle to make into to around -10 to -8 C with overnight low dropping to around -20 C. Strong spring sunshine will help to warm things up a little bit on Saturday with highs expected to be in the -5 C range.

Another weak low is forecasted to drop southwards out of Alberta late on Saturday and then track through the Dakotas on Sunday. This system looks as if it will bring some clouds and light snow or flurries to the southern portions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Once this system moves by, upper-level ridging to the west will help to push temperatures back above the freezing mark to start the week.

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As the trade war rages and the U.S. administration continues to threaten Canadian sovereignty, it’s no surprise Carney is bypassing Washington and heading to Europe. It’s in an effort to, as he said in a speech last week, “create new trade corridors with reliable trade partners.” He emphasized the world “reliable.”

When asked previously if he would be making a trip to see the U.S. president, he said, “I’m ready to sit down with President Trump at the appropriate time under a position where there’s respect for Canadian sovereignty.”

In the midst of the current political hurricane that swirls around Washington, there is good reason for Carney to avoid being caught in an Oval Office media scrum with the president.

Just like the measles, which has broken out in Texas, it’s a good idea to avoid prolonged contact with either it or Trump. Nearly everyone who comes in contact with either suffers or comes away diminished in some way.

Last week, NATO secretary general Mark Rutte sat in the guest chair in one of those press events. Trump went on to say he wants to acquire Canada and Greenland, both NATO territories.

“For me, I will leave out if Greenland joins the U.S. in this discussion because I don’t want to bring NATO in there,” he said.

NATO exists specifically for the purpose of defending its member countries, which include Canada and Greenland as part of Denmark.

Rutte was criticized for his action—or lack of it—in that meeting.

A few weeks prior, U.K. prime minister Kier Starmer, like Rutte, adopted the prevailing wisdom of appealing to Trump’s shallow ego by profusely flattering him to try and achieve some aim. Starmer presented Trump with a second “unprecedented” invitation from the king, noting how prestigious it was.

The objective was to bolster U.S. support for Ukraine as the administration continued to cozy up to Russian president Vladimir Putin. However, the U.S. has clearly sided with Russia over Ukraine and imposed steel and aluminum tariffs on the United Kingdom. Despite all his ego stroking, Starmer’s actions achieved little, if anything.

Similarly, French president Emmanuel Macron lowered himself to apply copious amounts of flattery during his turn in the Oval Office guest seat. He gently corrected Trump’s oft-repeated lie that the U.S. has contributed more money than the European Union to Ukraine’s defence.

Trump publicly dismissed Macron’s fact checking assertions during that event.

Now France faces a potential 200 per cent tariff on champagne, along with all the other U.S. tariffs imposed on the EU.

Then there was the infamous Zalinskyy visit. Trump and his mini-me vice-president ambushed Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zalinskyy, berating him in an extraordinary and repulsive display. Zalinskyy showed some understandable frustration but defended himself with integrity.

He was then ejected from the White House. Unlike Starmer and Macron, he had maintained his dignity, but the U.S. then promptly cut off military supplies and intelligence aid to his country.

Russia used the brief tactical advantage to ramp up its rocket and drone attacks on Ukrainian civilians. Trump shrugged it off when asked as something “anyone would do.”

Robert Bothwell, a professor of Canadian history and international relations at the University of Toronto, was quoted by the Associated Press as saying Carney is wise not to visit Trump.

“There’s no point in going to Washington,” Bothwell said in the article.

“As (former prime minister Justin) Trudeau’s treatment shows, all that results in is a crude attempt by Trump to humiliate his guests. Nor can you have a rational conversation with someone who simply sits there and repeats disproven lies.”

For world leaders, being in the presence of Trump is like exposing themselves to the measles virus. There’s no upside to it. Everyone who comes into contact with it ends up suffering. And just like the measles, the Trump presidency was entirely preventable. It’s unfortunate the roughly 71 million U.S. voters who put him into office didn’t get the vaccine.

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Why it matters: Canadian farmers have been caught in a trade war crossfire in recent months

U.S. President Donald Trump threatened on Thursday to slap a 200 per cent tariff on wine, cognac and other alcohol imports from Europe, opening a new front in a global trade war that has roiled financial markets and raised recession fears.

Rubio said the United States would retaliate against nations that had imposed tariffs on it.

“This is global. It’s not against Canada, it’s not against Mexico, it’s not against the EU, it’s everybody,” he told the CBS show “Face the Nation.”

“And then, from that new baseline of fairness and reciprocity, we will engage – potentially – in bilateral negotiations with countries around the world on new trade arrangements that make sense for both sides,” he continued.

Rubio, who did not give details of what the new deals could look like, said the United States would “reset the baseline” to ensure it was treated fairly.

“We don’t like the status quo. We are going to set a new status quo, and then we can negotiate something, if they (other nations) want to,” he said. “What we have now cannot continue.”

— Reporting by David Ljunggren

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Just hours after he and his cabinet were sworn in March 14 and held their first meeting, he made good on his election promise to cut the price on pollution.

“This is a cabinet focused on action. It’s focused on getting more money in the pockets of Canadians,” he said.

“Based on the discussion we’ve had and consistent with the promise I made and others supported during the leadership campaign, we will be eliminating the consumer fuel charge immediately and we will be ensuring that those Canadians who have received rebates will continue to receive rebates in the next quarter.”

Those rebates are due to arrive before the end of April.

Carney said this will help Canadians who are struggling to make ends meet. But he also said it is part of a much bigger set of measures the government will take to “ensure we fight against climate change, that our companies are competitive and the country moves forward.”

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation noted the tax is currently 17 cents per litre of gasoline, 21 cents per litre of diesel and 15 cents per cubic metre of natural gas, and that the Parliamentary Budget Officer found it cost the average family $399 more than the rebates they received.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre said Carney is only pausing the tax until after the election.

“He’s flip-flopping on his beliefs to trick Canadians into a fourth Liberal government,” he said on social media.

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Carney and his cabinet were sworn in today.

Blois, who represents the constituency of Kings-Hants in Nova Scotia, will inherit the role from veteran agriculture minister Lawrence MacAulay, who announced his retirement from the position in early March.

Blois has some experience with the office, having previously served as Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food and served on the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Agriculture.

Blois was one of the few Liberal MPs who supported Bill C-234, a private members bill that proposed to exempt from the price on carbon propane and natural gas for farm uses like grain drying and barn heating.

He also acted as Chair of the Atlantic caucus, where he advocated for higher carbon tax rebates for rural residents and sponsored the 2023 Bill C-359, which would have allowed for provisional registration or approval of feeds, seeds and pest control products if already approved by two or more “trusted jurisdictions.”

Neither bill became law.

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This statement suggests the kind of aggression that NATO was formed to protect member countries from, but Rutte said nothing.

That public appearance dovetails nicely with the messaging that several administration officials have been sending out across the U.S. media networks — that Canada is the bad actor and needs to stop its aggressive and unfair trade behaviour toward the U.S.

It’s all strikingly similar to the loathsome accusations by Trump that Ukraine was the bad actor in its defensive war with Russia.

That level of propaganda effort may be what’s helping prop up the current level of U.S. public support for the president’s foreign policy actions, particularly its tariffs, which remains a little less than 50 per cent, according to a recent poll conducted by CNN.

‘America last’ era ending

An example of the message going out to Americans is a statement by trade secretary Howard Lutnick while speaking on MSNBC a week ago.

“These policies are the most important America has ever had.”

Later in an extended interview on CBS, he asserted that tariffs were intended to influence border security. Without providing evidence, he claimed 75 per cent of terrorists captured in the U.S. came through Canada and the amount of fentanyl was grossly more than statistics show.

A few moments, later he went on to say how important it is to have steel manufacturing back in the United States, pivoting away from the border security basis for tariffs and claiming they were an economic necessity, apparently wanting it both ways.

Speaking during a White House press briefing, the administration’s spokesperson said: “The America-last globalist era is ending under president Trump. He will no longer allow our country and our workers to be ripped off.”

The continued mixed messaging about Canada, economic imperatives and now broader application of tariffs to the European Union seems to make clear that the initial border security claim is a lie.

The greatest dealmaker?

When asked in that CBS interview what was being accomplished by on-again-off-again tariffs on Canada, Lutnick said, “the president is the greatest dealmaker to ever sit in that chair.” He suggested these were just clever negotiating tactics.

He then added the U.S. will eventually seek to negotiate separate bilateral trade deals with individual countries.

But what would be the value of those deals if the U.S. so easily walks away from the existing Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement?

Democratic Minnesota governor Tim Walz expressed his opinion on that in a March 12 interview on MSNBC.

“Donald Trump doesn’t know how anything works. Donald Trump is this caricature that had a reality TV show that pretended he knew how to run businesses. The reality is he doesn’t.

“He’s the guy that starts the fire, then stands there and gives directions, acts like he’s the only one that knows how to put the fire out. He’s an arsonist with our economy.”

Later in the interview, Walz stated the obvious, that the president’s long history in relation to contracts and ethics makes any new agreement largely meaningless.

“We (the U.S.) have become untrustworthy.

“If he thinks trade is so bad with Canada, he’s the guy that signed the deal. It defies logic. I think this is how he ran business. He stiffed contractors. He stiffed workers. He doesn’t pay his bills. He declares bankruptcy. One thing is he claims he’s the business president. He’s the worst possible business executive I have ever witnessed.”

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Why it matters: The ongoing trade war between the U.S. and Canada has huge implications for Canadian farmers

The request was circulated to World Trade Organization members on Thursday, it said.

Canada claims that the measures, which end Canada’s exemption from additional duties on some steel and aluminum products and increase duties on aluminum articles, and which took effect on Wednesday, are inconsistent with U.S. obligations under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) 1994, the WTO said in a statement.

— Reporting by Madeline Chambers

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