The department’s latest seasonal weather maps, dated Sunday, show a 40-50 per cent chance of above-normal precipitation across most of the northern Prairies. Temperatures across much of the same region have a similar probability of coming in below normal.

Meanwhile, the crop-growing regions of Manitoba should see both normal temperatures and precipitation, according to Environment Canada.

Southern Manitoba is in need of more moisture, according to separate data from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada showing a deficit across most of the southern regions of the province and into southeastern Saskatchewan.

Ontario through the Maritimes are forecast to see above-normal temperatures over the next three months, according to the report.

Precipitation is also forecast to be above-normal in some areas of Quebec and the Atlantic provinces.

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Bunge shares rose almost seven per cent to their highest level in more than a year.

The company raised full-year profit guidance for a second straight quarter, projecting 2020 earnings of $6.25 to $6.75 per share (all figures US$). The company cited better-than-anticipated agribusiness results and a more favourable outlook for its edible oils unit despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

“In our view, the team’s execution was nearly flawless this quarter,” CEO Greg Heckman said, adding that guidance was lifted “based on Q3 results and improving market trends.”

Grain traders such as Bunge and rivals Archer Daniels Midland, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus, known as the ABCDs of grain, have faced headwinds from the pandemic as shuttered restaurants and reduced travel disrupted demand for food and fuel. Infection rates are rising again globally, triggering fresh lockdowns and other restrictions.

But they have weathered the crisis better than other industries, and Bunge — whose Canadian businesses include oilseed crushing and processing and a joint stake in Prairie grain handler G3 — said its facilities continued to operate at or near normal levels.

Bunge agribusiness earnings more than doubled to $467 million on robust margins in South America, Europe and Asia and active grain sales by South American farmers. Edible oils performed better than expected, although results were down year-on-year.

Net attributable income to Bunge was $262 million, or $1.84 per share, for the third-quarter ended Sept. 30, compared with a loss of $1.49 billion, or $10.57 per share, a year earlier when Bunge took charges totaling about $1.7 billion.

On an adjusted basis, Bunge posted a profit of $2.47 per share, up from $1.28 per share a year earlier.

Net sales fell 1.6 per cent to $10.16 billion, but topped analysts’ estimates of $9.92 billion, according to Refinitiv IBES.

— Reporting for Reuters by Karl Plume in Chicago and Arunima Kumar in Bangalore.

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Live cattle futures also were lower while feeder cattle contracts edged higher, their sixth straight day of gains.

CME lean hog futures for April delivery ended down 0.7 cent to settle at 66.875 cents/lb. (all figures US$). The contract found support at its 20-day moving average.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates China’s hog production in 2019 to be down 195 million head from 2018 due to African swine fever, chief economist Rob Johansson said Thursday.

The department expects the lethal pig disease to kill another 80 million pigs in 2020, he said at a conference in Washington.

China’s sow herd increased by 1.2 per cent in January from December, the ministry of agriculture and rural affairs said on Thursday, the fourth consecutive month in which the country’s breeding herd number had increased.

Benchmark CME April live cattle futures settled down 1.65 cents at 119.15 cents/lb. CME March feeder cattle futures ended up 0.025 cent at 140.8 cents/lb.

Traders were waiting for USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report on Friday. Analysts estimated that the amount of cattle in U.S. feedlots as of Feb. 1 was 102.4 per cent of the February 2019 total.

— Mark Weinraub is a Reuters commodities correspondent in Chicago.

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“I personally think the markets… are holding up pretty well with all of the negative news,” said Scott Capinegro of Barrington Commodities in Barrington, Ill.

Some progress was made in U.S./China trade, he said, as the two countries’ Phase One trade deal officially came into effect Saturday. Three days later, China announced tariff exemptions for almost 700 U.S. imports that included soybeans, corn and wheat. China said it will begin accepting applications for one-year exemptions beginning March 2.

“It’s good, positive news coming out of China that they’re not going to sit on their hands,” Capinegro said, but noted China recently purchased corn from Ukraine and continues to buy soybeans from Brazil.

He stressed that China has yet to begin massive purchases of U.S. agricultural products as outlined in Phase One, but the tariff exemptions were a good step.

China’s COVID-19 outbreak certainly “screwed things up,” he added.

“They’re trying to show their commitment to the Phase One deal, but yet they haven’t stepped into buying as much as people thought they would be already. But it’s early yet.”

The U.S. is facing the additional dilemma of the Brazilian real (23 U.S. cents) hitting new lows as the U.S. dollar (4.36 reais) gains strength.

“That always makes Brazil’s products look cheaper,” the trader said.

Domestically, record amounts with the soybean crush have put pressure on soyoil. For soyoil to turn around, it needs to see gains in soymeal, Capinegro said.

Despite all of these issues, he noted the corn basis has remained firm and the soybean basis is regaining strength.

“There is something underneath this market that’s happening.”

Until then, the U.S. Department of Agriculture holds its Agricultural Outlook Forum on Thursday and Friday in Arlington, Va., and he believes the crop outlooks to be released there will put pressure on the markets.

Also, options for the March contract expire on Friday.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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One of the most notable numbers from AAFC was the drop in 2019-20 corn exports, which were estimated to be about 1.5 million tonnes, over 20 per cent less compared to the September estimate.

Also for that crop year, the carryout was lowered by more than 18 per cent, to 1.8 million tonnes.

Carryout for 2019-20 canola was revised upward as well, by nearly 4.5 per cent, to 4.7 million tonnes.

For 2019-20, the October report placed canola production at 19.4 million tonnes. That’s down five per cent from the previous year.

Canola exports were estimated to be 9.2 million tonnes, or 1.1 million tonnes below the five-year average, largely due to the loss of the China market. Increased exports elsewhere and lower Australian canola and European rapeseed production provided some cushioning.

As for wheat excluding durum, production was pegged in the October report to increase by four per cent to 27.5 million tonnes. The report noted the revision was based on more acres seeded countered by lower average yields and higher abandonment for winter wheat.

Wheat exports were lowered by four per cent to 19 million tonnes, based on greater global competition from other exporting countries incurring larger production.

For durum, October’s report dropped production by 13 per cent from 2018-19, to five million tonnes, due to 21 per cent fewer acres. Higher yields made up for part of the decline.

The durum carryout was forecast to be one million tonnes for 2019-20, for a 40 per cent drop from the previous year.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm, a Glacer FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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