Erin Harakal, trade manager for Agfinity Inc. in Stony Plain, Alta., said while conditions in the northern half of Alberta are good in some places, areas around Red Deer and parts of Saskatchewan are quite dry. 

“It’s been all over the map for what we’ve been hearing for crop conditions right now,” she added. 

Demand for feed grains is currently on the “quieter side”, according to Harakal, as feedlots order more United States corn, which is priced at C$270 to C$275 per tonne (C$6.85 to C$6.99/bu.). Other feedlots are content with waiting until harvest to buy more grain. 

“It seems like we have a little bit more demand for fall, September and October (grain),” she explained. “But there are still a few feedlots that need a couple (of shipments) here and there. Prices for feed barley have gone up (this week), so we’ve seen prices go up a little bit.” 

The high-delivered bid for feed barley in Alberta was C$9.38 per bushel on July 26, up 13 cents from a month ago, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. Those for both Manitoba and Saskatchewan were C$7.50/bu., 50 cents higher in Manitoba than last month, but steady in Saskatchewan. All three bids are priced higher than the high-delivered bids at this time last year. 

For feed wheat, the high-delivered bid in Alberta was C$11.59/bu., up 22 cents from last month. In Saskatchewan, it was C$10.35/bu., up 35 cents, while in Manitoba, the high-delivered bid was C$9.96/bu., 45 cents higher. 

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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Alberta’s barley crop was only rated 43 per cent good to excellent in the latest weekly report, well off the 75 per cent reading in mid-July a year ago. The situation was similar in Saskatchewan, with just under half of the province’s barley hitting the good to excellent category as of July 10.

Seeded barley area in Canada was up on the year, but the poor yield prospects will likely cut into available supplies.

“Reduced yields and a smaller barley crop will force reductions in Canadian exports and domestic feed use as imported corn increases its presence in Western Canada again,” Leftfield Commodity Research said in a report compiled for the Manitoba Crop Alliance.

Canada is already booking corn for delivery in the 2023-24 marketing year, with 55,400 tonnes of new-crop U.S. corn sales to Canada in the latest weekly U.S. Department of Agriculture report bringing total new crop bookings to 298,400 tonnes. Canada has imported 496,300 tonnes of U.S. corn in the current marketing year-to-date, with 159,700 tonnes still outstanding for movement by the end of August.

U.S. corn plantings were estimated at a record 94.1 million acres by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, although there is still a long growing season ahead. “Corn prices are trading lower in response to larger estimated U.S. supplies, but weather over the coming weeks will be important,” Leftfield said in its report.

Feed barley prices in Alberta are currently trading at anywhere from $7 to $9.41 per bushel in Alberta, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data. The bids top out at $7.50 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

While corn imports from the U.S. had been trading at a discount to barley in southern Alberta, strength in U.S. corn futures over the past week likely brought landed-corn prices more in line with barley. However, there were no reports of any fresh corn business taking place at the higher price levels.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Wheat futures fell in sympathy with corn, despite a smaller-than-expected quarterly wheat stocks figure.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, November soybeans settled up 77-1/2 cents at $13.43-1/4 per bushel (all figures US$). CBOT December corn fell 33-3/4 cents to finish at $4.94-3/4 a bushel and September wheat fell 16-1/2 cents at $6.51 a bushel.

Soybean futures soared after USDA said U.S. farmers planted 83.5 million acres of the oilseed, down four million acres from the government’s March forecast and below the lowest in a range of analyst estimates. The reduced acreage implies smaller new-crop supplies of the oilseed.

“For beans, if the yield falls to 50 (bushels per acre), instead of the expected 52, then that’s tight, really tight,” said Craig Turner, commodities trader at Daniels Trading.

Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for StoneX added: “The margin for error for soybeans just went to zero.”

USDA reported U.S. soybean stockpiles as of June 1 at 796 million bushels, down 18 per cent from a year ago and below most trade estimates.

The tighter soybean outlook sent several CBOT soyoil futures contracts up their daily four-cent limit, prompting the exchange to widen daily trading limits for soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures for Monday’s trading session.

For corn, USDA’s plantings estimate of 94.1 million acres was up more than two million acres from its March forecast and topped the range of analysts’ pre-report estimates.

Coupled with crop-boosting rains crossing Iowa and Illinois on Friday, the data pointed toward a larger corn crop and renewed questions about demand for the yellow grain. As a result, new-crop December corn futures dropped below $5 a bushel for the first time in a month.

“The corn number was bad. We’re getting rain, and the demand is poor,” Turner said.

The big corn acreage number overshadowed smaller-than-expected stocks figures. USDA reported June 1 corn stockpiles at 4.106 billion bushels, below most trade estimates, while June 1 wheat stocks fell to 580 million bushels, the lowest for this time of year since 2008.

On the global front, Russia said it saw no reason to extend the United Nations-brokered Black Sea grain deal beyond July 17, but assured poor countries that Russian grain exports would continue.

Meanwhile, wheat exporters in the European Union are facing a tougher start to the new season as massive supplies of cheaper Russian grain mop up international demand, traders said.

— Reporting for Reuters by Julie Ingwersen in Chicago; additional reporting by Naveen Thukral in Singapore and Sybille de La Hamaide in Paris.

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Total corn plantings in the country were estimated by USDA at 94.1 million acres, which was a million acres above the top end of trade estimates and well above the 88.6 million acres seeded in 2022. The corn plantings would mark the third-highest acreage base to the crop since 1944.

The increase in corn area came at the expense of soybeans, which saw area fall to 83.5 million acres from 87.5 million a year ago. Average trade guesses had been for similar planted area on the year.

Meanwhile, quarterly stocks of both crops came in below average trade estimates and the year ago level, at 4.106 billion bushels for corn and 796 million for soybeans.

The wheat numbers saw planted area increase to 49.6 million acres, from 45.7 million in 2022. Of that total, spring wheat at 11.1 million acres was up by about 500,000 from an earlier estimate and compares with the 10.8 million acres of spring wheat seeded in the U.S. in 2022.

Quarterly wheat stocks in the country came in at 580 million bushels, which was at the low end of trade expectations and well off the 698 million bushels of wheat on hand in the country at June 1, 2022.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.

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USDA is scheduled to release its planted acreage and quarterly grain stocks reports on Friday at 11 a.m. CDT. Reilly projected corn acres to increase to nearly 92.4 million this year compared to the 88.58 million USDA said was planted in 2022. He placed soybeans at 87.6 million acres, a little higher than the 87.45 million last year. Total wheat acres are also to increase in 2023 at 49.82 million, versus 45.74 million in 2022.

“I think with the potential for large areas of abandonment in the hard red winter wheat country, and the government now expanding the possibility of double cropping… some of the wheat fields could be planted to corn,” he suggested.

READ MORE: Canadian canola, wheat area up on the year

Conversely, Reilly pointed to the late start to spring planting farmers in North and South Dakota had this year, and the hot, dry conditions crops in those two states have contended with so far.

“If we lose a lot of corn acres in the Dakotas, that could easily offset an increase in the southwest, resulting in smaller corn acres,” he said, but cautioned the trade has likely factored that in.

“It’s going to be interesting to see how new-crop prices react, but that also depends on what the USDA puts out for grain stocks,” Reilly said.

The analyst said the report on stocks as of June 1 has often deviated from trade expectations. He pegged corn stocks at 4.29 million bushels, somewhat lower than USDA’s 4.35 million in June 2022. Soybeans were forecast to be 826 million bushels, down from 968 million from a year ago, and all wheat falls to 593 million bushels from 698 million.

“It’s really a flip of a [coin] of what could happen with the grain stocks, because no one really knows what the residuals are for the corn and beans,” Reilly said, noting it’s a different story for wheat as its crop year is already finished.

“Be very cautious on a very choppy trade, not only heading into the report, but right after the report is released,” he advised.

However, once the market has adjusted to the USDA reports, Reilly said they will very likely return to trading on the weather.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Hot and dry weather in India cut production prospects for that country’s kabuli chickpea crop, according to the report. Production out of Mexico also failed to meet expectations.

As a result, the world kabuli market is out roughly 100,000 tonnes of product, according to Navneet Chhabra of Global Garbonzo, who was quoted in the release. The tighter Indian balance sheet should cause world prices to rise, according to Chhabra, who expected the supply tightness to last for five to seven months – when new-crop North American supplies will once again be available.

With India at a deficit, the major chickpea customer will need to increase its import volumes and all eyes will be on Russia, Canada, the U.S. and Turkey to make up supplies.

“Even if all these origins increase the planted area by 30 per cent. I still foresee a shortage for the next six months, especially of the large caliber sizes,” said Chhabra.

Canada has exported 113,800 tonnes of chickpeas through the first half of the 2022-23 marketing year, according to Statistics Canada data, with the U.S., Turkey and Pakistan the largest customers and India only taking 188 tonnes so far. The total exports were roughly double what moved by the same time the previous year. Canadian chickpea sales in 2022-23 are forecast to hit 200,000 tonnes by the end of the crop year, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC).

Early indications for 2023-24 from AAFC see planted chickpea area in Canada rising by 10 per cent, to 260,000 acres. The official survey-based estimates from Statistics Canada will be released on April 26.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Prospective Plantings report, released March 31, has pegged U.S. chickpea seedings in 2023 at 340,500 tonnes. That would be down by 3.5 per cent from the previous year.

Large-calibre kabuli chickpeas are currently trading at around 50 cents/lb. in Western Canada, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire, with new-crop bids around 43-45 cents. Spot bids for desi chickpeas were in the 30-35 cents/lb. area.

Looking beyond North American production, the GPC said it is unclear how the war in Ukraine and the ongoing transport issues out of the Black Sea will continue to affect global chickpea supplies.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture, at its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, pegged 2023 corn plantings at 91 million acres, up from 88.6 million last year, and production at 15.085 billion bushels, based on a record-high yield of 181.5 bushels per acre.

Analysts were expecting plantings of 90.9 million acres and production of 14.949 billion bushels.

“The corn market got thumped from the get-go when the Ag Outlook Forum released their production, yield and ending stocks estimates,” commodities brokerage CHS Hedging said.

Although high by historical standards, USDA also projected lower average prices for corn, soybeans and wheat compared with the previous year.

Chicago Board of Trade corn settled down 15 cents at $6.59-1/4 per bushel and hit its lowest price since Jan. 12 at $6.57-1/2 (all figures US$).

Soybeans slid 7-1/2 cents to end at $15.27-1/4 per bushel. Wheat closed a 1/2 cent higher at $7.50-1/2 per bushel, after dropping on Wednesday to its lowest since Feb. 7 at $7.46-3/4.

USDA projected total U.S. wheat production at 1.887 billion bushels, with an average yield of 49.2 bushels per acre, up six per cent from last year’s drought-affected average of 46.5 bushels.

USDA’s projections “give an indication that we have the potential for big crops and the potential for ending stocks to increase,” said Karl Setzer, brokerage research lead at Mid-Co Commodities.

Competition for grain and soybean export business added pressure on futures prices, and there was a lack of bullish news to counteract concerns about demand, brokers said.

USDA is slated to issue weekly U.S. grain and soybean export sales data on Friday.

— Reporting for Reuters by Tom Polansek in Chicago; additional reporitng by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.

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Prior to Christmas Day, temperatures are expected to fall as cold as -40 C in the northern Plains to below freezing in parts of Texas.

Steve Georgy, president of Allendale Inc. at McHenry, Ill. said there is no question of the threat posed to the 2022-23 U.S. winter wheat crop; it’s only a matter of how severe.

“There was a really bad start to the crop. You get into that Kansas, Oklahoma and even into Nebraska, the really bitter cold is coming there,” Georgy stated, noting “we tend to kill wheat off a few times” during its course.

However, he was presently concerned with winter wheat in the more northerly areas of the continental U.S.

“The bitter cold we are going to have and how long it lasts, that could be detrimental for those northern areas. So, we will probably see a little bit of winterkill there,” Georgy said.

By the end of the six- to 10-day weather forecast, temperatures are to dramatically improve, he said. “It’s like we get this flash warm-up and it gets cold again.”

One area of concern he has, regarding this year’s wheat crop and winterkill, is how short the funds currently are.

“The big managed money — they are short wheat. I think if we see another bout of cold weather through those areas again, I wouldn’t be surprised if… it’s enough to get the funds to say, ‘I don’t want to be short anymore.’”

RELATED: Wheat climbs on winterkill worries

One report noted 2022-23 winter wheat plantings in the U.S. could be as high as 34.5 million acres. With the right conditions, a good yield could produce the largest harvest in the last seven years.

However, it won’t be until January when the U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to issue its report on winter wheat plantings.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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But soybeans fell as COVID-19 lockdowns in China, the top importer of the oilseed, raised worries about demand for soy as well as other commodities including crude oil.

Corn futures ended mixed, with nearby contracts lower and back months higher.

Chicago Board of Trade May wheat settled up 29-3/4 cents at $10.81-1/4 per bushel after rising to $10.91-3/4, the contract’s highest since March 28 (all figures US$).

“We added more war premium today, and fears that we were going to see the (U.S. winter wheat) crop ratings go down,” said Don Roose, president of Iowa-based U.S. Commodities.

Ukraine said it expects Russia to begin an offensive soon in the eastern Donbas region as Moscow shifts its focus to seizing territory there after its invasion force was driven from the gates of Kyiv this month.

Tightening global wheat supplies and the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, two major world wheat exporters, have cast a spotlight on U.S. winter wheat production, particularly as drought persists in the Plains, the core U.S. wheat region.

However, after the close of the CBOT, the U.S. Department of Agriculture rated 32 per cent of U.S. winter wheat in good to excellent condition, up two percentage points from a week ago, bucking analyst expectations for no change. The wheat ratings are still among the poorest on record for this time of year.

For corn, USDA said planting was two per cent complete, unchanged from the previous week as farmers wait for conditions to improve, and behind the average analyst estimate of four per cent.

“You do have snow up in North Dakota, the (Mississippi River) Delta is too wet, the Midwest is cool and wet. It’s not an ideal start to the planting season,” Roose said.

CBOT May corn futures settled down 4-1/4 cents at $7.64-1/2 per bushel, but new-crop December corn ended up two cents at $7.18 after setting a life-of-contract high at $7.23-3/4.

May soybeans finished down 33-3/4 cents at $16.55-1/4 per bushel.

— Julie Ingwersen is a Reuters commodities correspondent in Chicago; additional reporting by Michael Hogan in Hamburg and Enrico Dela Cruz in Manila.

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Corn futures ended mixed. The front May contract on the Chicago Board of Trade sagged on technical selling and sympathy with soybeans, but deferred months including the December contract, representing the 2022 harvest, rose to life-of-contract highs on worries of a drop in U.S. corn plantings.

Wheat futures fell in choppy, lacklustre trade at the start of the month and quarter, pressured by sluggish export demand for U.S. supplies.

CBOT May soybeans settled down 35-1/2 cents at $15.82-3/4 a bushel after hitting $15.80-3/4, the contract’s lowest since Feb. 25 (all figures US$).

Traders noted follow-through selling after USDA on Thursday projected U.S. farmers would plant 91 million acres of soybeans this spring, the most on record, while reducing corn acreage to 89.5 million acres, down four per cent from last year.

“The pronounced shift in acreage from corn to soybeans is probably due to the sharp rise in fertilizer prices,” Commerzbank said.

Soybeans require less fertilizer than corn, making the oilseed more attractive to farmers as high costs and tight fertilizer supplies have been exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine.

CBOT May corn ended down 13-3/4 cents at $7.35 per bushel, but new-crop December corn settled up 4-1/4 cents at $6.88 after setting a contract high at $6.93-3/4 as brokers worried about a looming supply shortfall.

“Suddenly, the markets are waking up to the reality that the world may be tight on corn this year, with Ukraine absent from the export market, and U.S. farmers reducing planting intentions more than expected,” Arlan Suderman, StoneX chief commodities economist, wrote in a note to clients.

CBOT May wheat ended down 21-1/2 cents at $9.84-1/2 per bushel, extending its decline late in the session. The most-active CBOT wheat contract has fallen 28 per cent since notching an all-time high of $13.63-1/2 on March 8 amid worries about global grain supplies due to the conflict in Ukraine.

— Reporting for Reuters by Julie Ingwersen in Chicago; additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Hallie Gu and Dominique Patton in Beijing.

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