“A market of almost 300 million people is obviously an important one for Canadian producers. That’s why this step in diversifying Canada’s pork export markets is so crucial,” said Canadian Pork Council chair René Roy in a federal news release.

Indonesia has opened its market to Canadian pork and pork products. It will also now accept over-thirty-month bone-in beef and beef offal. Previously, Canadian producers could only export boneless beef.

Indonesian authorities also audited and approved more Canadian meat and livestock facilities.

Canada and Indonesia signed the Canada-Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in September. The agreement will eliminate “nearly all” tariffs on Canadian beef and pork, the Feb. 23 news release said.

Indonesia is Canada’s sixth-largest agri-food and seafood export market, the federal government said.

“Indonesia is a dynamic and fast-growing economy,” said Albert Aringfield, vice president of international market development and promotion with Canada Beef International.

“This opportunity strengthens our relationships in Southeast Asia and supports the long-term sustainability and diversification of Canada’s beef sector.”

The federal government said it continues to negotiate export certificates for live breeding cattle, live swine, genetic material and bovine embryos.

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Her secret? Chinese black pork.

“I want my kids to eat the good pork I used to have when I was little,” Gao said at a neighbourhood butcher as she ordered 1,000 yuan (C$197) worth of black pork ribs, feet and sausages. “Not the cheap, low-quality, fast-produced pork that has penetrated my kids’ lives.” She plans to rub the pork with Sichuan numbing pepper and salt it before hanging it on her balcony to dry for the holiday.

WHY IT MATTERS: China has been a key market for Canadian pork, though currently Canadian pork imports face a 25 per cent tariff.

Gao, a crab roe seller, is a member of China’s rising middle class who, no longer satisfied with mass-produced pork from imported Western “white pig” breeds, is hungry for premium products. For older buyers in particular, black pork evokes childhood, when black-haired pigs were raised at home and slaughtered for family gatherings around Lunar New Year.

Demand for what has been marketed as the “Wagyu of pork,” known for its fattier and more tender texture, is in turn a lifeline for China’s beleaguered pork producers. The premium cut, which is up to four times more expensive than more common white pork, is one of the remaining profitable segments after years of overcapacity and falling prices in the world’s largest market for hogs, according to interviews with more than two dozen meat producers, analysts and academics.

‘The only way out’

The red-braised pork, or hongshao rou, that Gao prepares – a favorite dish of Chairman Mao Zedong, made with caramelized sugar, soy sauce and spices – was a rare luxury before reforms in the 1980s and 1990s ushered in a long economic boom and gave many the means to enjoy meat more than a handful of times a year. To meet that demand, in the 1990s China began importing Western varieties that matured in five months versus the year that was needed for Chinese black pigs. Last year, China – the world’s largest hog producer – slaughtered 720 million pigs. And in the final quarter of 2025, it produced 15.7 million metric tons of pork, the highest fourth-quarter tally since 2018.

But size has become a liability and Mao’s favourite flavor was lost.

Pork prices have been falling for years due to weak demand, a stagnating economy and changing tastes; in December, they declined 14.6 per cent from a year earlier. And rampant overcapacity, triggered in part by the government’s reaction in 2018 to the outbreak of African swine fever, has cost the industry profits. A major Chinese pork producer, Wen Foodstuff Group, in January said its 2025 net profit fell 40.7 per cent to 46.1 per cent from a year earlier. And Muyuan Foods, the world’s largest hog producer, also said it expects its 2025 profit to fall 12.2 per cent to 17.8 per cent.

For some, black pork offers a way out.

Yang Xinchun, a 49-year-old pig farmer in Taizhou, about two hours by train from Shanghai, earned a net profit of over 1 million yuan (C$196,700) from black pork in 2025. His 1,000 black hogs offset the losses from his herd of 6,000 white pigs.

He said his gamble paid off. He started raising black hogs in late 2024 after learning that state-owned giant Bright Food Group was looking at the premium market to avoid losses.

“People come to my butcher store every day to learn from my experience,” Yang said, referring to other hog producers.

He plans to expand his herd to 15,000 black pigs and his three black pork butcher stores to 40 franchises this year.

“Black pigs are the only way out for pig producers, especially small-to-medium producers who were pressured by falling white pork prices,” said Gao Qinxue, a director at the Chinese Association of Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine.

The total number of black hogs in Yang’s town, Taizhou, increased to 30,000 in 2025 from 10,000 in 2024 and local pork farmers hope the herd grows to 100,000 by 2027, Gao said.

Top Chinese pork producers are also scaling up. In November, Wen Foodstuff told investors it aims to become the No. 1 Chinese black pork brand and lift these hogs to five per cent of its herd by 2027. Pork giant New Hope also said last fall it was expanding its herd of more than 150,000 black hogs.

Analysts said they expected black hog numbers to rise 50 per cent to 30 million to 32 million between 2024 and 2026, or roughly five per cent of all the pigs in China.

No industry standard

Demand exceeds supply in China’s premium pork market by about 15 per cent to 20 per cent, but it is unclear whether black pork can fill the whole gap because producers must develop brands and supply chains in this nascent industry, analysts said. The black pork businesses are also competing with imported products and Chinese pork moguls that are developing premium pork from fast-growing Western breeds.

Today, China has more than four dozen local black or black-dotted pig breeds that are sold at varying premiums. Producers like Yang raise black hogs that are crossbred with Western Berkshire or Duroc lines to accelerate pig growth while maintaining their black coats and meat quality. The niche market could fall into oversupply if too many producers pile in and margins may not be sustained, observers said.

“If you flood the market with lots of black pigs, will people pay it, or will the price come down?” said David Casey, senior product development and supply director at the Pig Improvement Company, a major global breeder. “Most people are still buying cheaply raised, low-priced pork.”

“Unlike Spanish Iberico pork, there is no standard in China. I could bring in a Hampshire pig, call it black, and I qualify. I’ve heard scientists talk about changing Western pigs’ hair colour to black.”

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The farm lender is forecasting hog prices slightly above 2025 figures and well above five-year averages, wrote FCC senior economist Justin Shepherd in a Jan. 28 report.

Cattle prices support hogs

Cattle futures set new records in 2025 and continue to hover near highs.

“With cattle futures near record levels, this provides support for the hog market as a substitute protein,” Shepherd wrote.

“Demand for hogs is being fueled in part by domestic hog slaughter that increased in 2025 after multiple years of consolidation and is expected to be up slightly again this year.”

Pork prices have not risen as quickly as beef at the grocery store, which has made it a more affordable protein choice for shoppers. Since 2022, pork prices have risen by more than 13 per cent, chicken prices rose by almost 22 per cent, and beef prices rose by nearly 38 per cent.

“That at least partially explains the uptick in pork consumption last year,” Shepherd said.

Meat prices are expected to remain high in 2026 according to Canada’s Food Price Report, released in early December. Report lead Sylvain Charlebois noted that Canada was short of chicken at the time, which he attributed to high beef prices. However, he said he expected the poultry sector to recover “eventually.”

Lower feed costs improve margins

Ample feed grain supplies are expected to hold prices below the five year average throughout 2026, FCC predicted.

Canadian farmers produced record crops in 2025, which is pushing grain and oilseed prices down. Cheap American corn may also become competitive in some regions.

Additionally, large domestic supplies and trade restrictions with India are likely to lead to some peas being diverted into the feed market, Shepherd said.

“When we add in strong hog prices, it suggests Manitoba and Ontario farrow to finish hog margins could reach their highest levels in five years.”

Risks ahead

Shepherd noted that disease is an ever-present threat for Canadian hog farmers. Other parts of the world are dealing with outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF), porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS).

“If Canada can continue to keep PED and PRRS under control, and keep ASF out of the country, producers can feel optimistic given strong hog prices and manageable feed costs,” he said.

The sector also faces potential effects of U.S. voluntary country of origin labelling rules, which took effect on Jan. 1. FCC said live hog exports to the U.S. look to remain steady for now.

In November, a Manitoba pork marketer said some U.S. processors had already shut their doors to Canadian pigs. Pigs were moving, but it wasn’t always easy.

The renegotiation of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement (CUSMA) also remains a wildcard.

Exports were also down in the first 10 months of 2025 — falling six per cent below the five-year average.

“This is highlighted by the large drop in shipments to China,” wrote Shepherd.

China imposed a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian pork in early 2025, along with duties on canola, peas and seafood. An agreement between Beijing and Canada has led to tariffs being dropped or eased on those products, but the levy on pork remains.

“Continued success is being found, however, in Japan, Mexico and South Korea where Canada’s pork exports continue to grow at a solid pace,” Shepherd said. He noted trade to the U.S. has been “strong and stable” year to year.

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There will be plenty of nitpicking to come, but the agreement significantly reduces the punishing tariffs China imposed on $2.6 billion in Canadian agricultural goods, while allowing Canadian consumers increased access to Chinese electric vehicles without gutting the Canadian auto sector. The question of whether pork will also see tariff relief remains unanswered.

But as details emerge, it’s clear that the mid-January discussions set a framework for ongoing engagement, increased investment and collaboration — while acknowledging that significant differences remain in how the two countries engage with the world.

It’s a calculated risk. China’s propensity for meddling in domestic politics and intelligence gathering continues to be a threat. And whenever diplomatic headwinds start to blow, it seems agriculture gets swept up in the storm.

But for now, pragmatism has prevailed.

Allowing China to export 49,000 electric vehicles into Canada at the most-favoured nation tariff rate of 6.1 per cent is a sharp drop from the 100 per cent tariff imposed by the previous Liberal government under Justin Trudeau and returns imports to pre-2023 levels.

Canada’s decision to impose those steep tariffs aligned with U.S. policy at a time when North American auto manufacturing was fully integrated. The U.S. administration under Donald Trump has since abandoned its commitment to an integrated North American auto manufacturing sector, which erodes any rationale for Canada mimicking the U.S. blockade.

Canada’s EV manufacturing sector is in its infancy. If governments are serious about encouraging consumers to embrace renewable energy, it makes little sense to block imports that offer advanced technology as a more affordable option. At the same time, by offering China only limited access, the Canadian government does not completely erode prospects for the domestic EV industry.

Farm organizations were quick to applaud the announcements of reduced tariffs on canola, peas and seafood.

They just as quickly called for “pragmatic engagement with both the United States and China to protect tariff-free access and prevent farmers from becoming collateral damage in broader geopolitical disputes,” as Grain Growers of Canada worded it.

Farmers well understand that this thawing of diplomatic relations with China after nearly a decade of tense standoffs and economic warfare is likely to heat things up with the U.S., Canada’s other significant other, on the trade front.

It’s not easy to support Canadian livelihoods while wedged between your two biggest trading partners, who are simultaneously conducting economic warfare with both each other and you.

Let’s look at the numbers. Canada does about $80 billion in total trade with China annually. Our trade with the U.S. is much larger, about $1 trillion, not to mention our shared border.

U.S. media reporting on the Canada-China deal-making used it as evidence of a significant break with the U.S. Coverage in The Wall Street Journal cited former Canadian diplomats and foreign policy analysts as predicting the move will “annoy” the Trump administration.

And we know what happens when Donald Trump gets annoyed.

Well, actually, we don’t. Which is the whole problem and why defrosting Canada’s relationship with China has become even more important.

Trump didn’t react as negatively as expected, at least initially, even though some of his administration’s officials warned the Canada will regret this move.

It raises the spectre of U.S. retaliation. Will the news further jeopardize the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement up for review this year? Possibly, and there’s no denying that losing the predictability that agreement brings to the marketplace would be a major blow to farmers.

However, as U.S. foreign and domestic policy becomes increasingly unhinged, the odds of returning to the stability of the past four decades are falling faster than Trump’s popularity ratings.

By working with China, Canada is signalling its willingness to seek common ground in trade while respecting that the world isn’t always what we would like it to be.

This country has a long history of building trading and diplomatic relationships that focus on doing the right things for the right reasons. In the 1950s and 1960s, Canadian grain sales helped spare the people of China from famine at a time when many exporters refused to do business with a communist regime.

At the same time, the events of the past year aside, Canadians have on many occasions stood by the United States in times of crisis.

If Canada has any hope of emerging from these uncertain times with its sovereignty — and dignity — intact, its trade and foreign policy must be about more than ducking and dodging blows from bigger players.

The world has changed, but quiet diplomacy in pursuit of a rules-based global order is still Canada’s trump card.

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Agriculture Undersecretary Dante Palabrica said next year’s budget includes funding for 32,000 gilts, young female pigs that have not yet bred. They are expected to yield litters amounting to up to one million pigs a year, a major step in repopulating the Philippines’ hog inventory.

WHY IT MATTERS: Canada exported about $279 million worth of pork and pork products to the Philippines last year according to federal statistics.

“To protect our supply of pork while we are repopulating our pigs, we have to produce one million pigs a year,” Palabrica told Reuters, describing the estimated drop in imports as conservative.

He said the country aims to complete the administration of 500,000 doses of the ASF vaccine by mid-2026, as it aims to move from government-controlled vaccinations to full commercial deployment. As of December 12, 236,000 doses have been given given.

The Philippines, one of the world’s largest pork consumers, reported its first ASF outbreaks in September 2019. Production plunged from about 1.6 million metric tons before the outbreak to 1.1 million in 2020 and 1 million in 2021, and has struggled to recover, with 2025 output expected to reach 1.06 million tons, according to USDA data.

Imports have filled the gap and are forecast to rise seven per cent next year to 750,000 tons, as a result of strong demand and the lingering production challenges.

Brazil is now the top supplier, with shipments from January to October up 56 per cent to 322,076 tons compared to a year earlier, according to Brazilian trade data.

Manila has temporarily banned imports from Spain and Taiwan following recent ASF outbreaks. ASF does not harm humans but spreads rapidly among pigs and wild boar.

Spain has applied for regionalisation recognition, Palabrica said, with similar requests pending from Russia, Germany and Poland. Regionalisation allows imports from ASF-free zones within affected countries, under strict standards.

— Reporting by Karen Lema

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“We are proud of the relationship our two countries have built over the years, and we are committed to further expanding and strengthening Canadian pork’s partnership with Japanese retailers and consumers,” said Canadian Pork Council chair René Roy in a news release, Monday.

Japan’s top supplier

Canadian pork is the top imported pork in Japan for the first time in 40 years, the council said.

The U.S. was Japan’s largest pork supplier between 2020 and 2024 a report from the Province of Manitoba shows. It exported C$2.01 billion in pork products to Japan in 2024, with Canada second that year at $1.61 billion in pork products exported to Japan.

In the first half of 2025, Japan had already imported $3.8 billion in pork products, which represents 52.3 per cent of last year’s total imports from all origins, the Manitoba report said. Canada’s market share of Japanese pork imports through the first half of the year increased to 22.0 per cent, from 21.8 per cent.

Celebration on itinerary

Nineteen Canadian pork industry delegates will kick off this week’s trade mission in Osaka, where Canada Pork and the Canadian Pork Council will hosts events at the Canadian Pavilion at Expo 2025, including a cutting demo and pork tasting.

Delegates will then travel to Tokyo for a media conference at the Canadian embassy.

“Both events, along with other significant activities planned, will provide producers and processors an opportunity to celebrate the industry’s Japanese partners and friends,” the Canadian Pork Council said.

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Home to half the world’s pigs, China’s massive hog sector struggles with a supply glut amid weak consumer demand.

Why it matters: China has been a key export market for the Canadian pork industry.

Data shows China’s sow herd hit 40.43 million head at the end of June, above the normal holding level of 39 million.

Cash hog prices, meanwhile, have tumbled below 14 yuan (C$2.68) per kilogram this week. A year earlier, it was around 20 yuan, according to consultancy MySteel.

The upcoming meeting will also focus on curbing “secondary fattening” – a speculative practice of further fattening pigs in anticipation of higher prices – and tightening controls on slaughter weights, according to the notice from the China Animal Agriculture Association, the official animal husbandry association.

The story was first reported by Bloomberg News.

Reuters reported in June that a crackdown on secondary fattening was already underway to stabilize the market.

In July, the agriculture ministry said the country would reduce breeding sow stocks, control slaughter weights, and limit new production capacity.

These efforts are also expected to reduce soymeal consumption, as China contends with ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and concerns over potential soybean supply disruptions in the fourth quarter.

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Consumption dropped roughly 12 per cent, year over year, said FCC senior economist Justin Shepherd in a Feb. 26 article.

Demand vs. consumption

The data gives some insight into consumers’ buying decisions, Shepherd explained.

“Demand” and “consumption” are often used interchangeably, but they have different meanings in economics. “Demand” refers to what consumers want to buy, whereas “consumption” is what they actually buy.

“Pork demand has consistently been lower than consumption, indicating that consumers are buying it most likely as a cheaper alternative to beef and chicken and not necessarily because of a strong preference for pork,” Shepherd wrote.

While consumption and demand fell in the first half of the year, downward momentum increased in the third quarter as pork price inflation outpaced that of chicken. Pork consumption dropped seven per cent from Q2 to Q3.

Pork had considerable heights from which to fall. In 2023, consumption jumped by more than 14 per cent to nearly 23 kilograms per capita on an eviscerated basis, reported analyst Kevin Grier in June 2024. Beef consumption fell seven per cent while chicken consumption stayed level.

That year, retail pork prices increased by one per cent while consumer beef prices rose nearly eight per cent and chicken prices rose nine per cent, Grier said.

Global consumption growing

Shepherd said the decline in domestic pork consumption is a challenge for an industry working to recover from years of low revenues—particularly since the U.S. is expected to impose tariffs on Canadian goods.

Canada may be able to expand into markets like Mexico and South Korea, he said. Chinese consumption has plateaued and its domestic hog industry has nearly achieved self-sufficiency. However, Mexican consumption has increased 33 per cent since 2018 while South Korea is consuming 13 per cent more pork. Globally, consumption increased by two per cent in the same period.

“Both countries’ growth in consumption is being driven partially by higher production domestically but also higher imports, including from Canada,” Shepherd said.

“Exporters would do well to diversify globally and capitalize on strong world demand for pork, as they seek to offset the damage caused by American trade barriers.”

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A rise in demand from the world’s biggest pork consumer had propelled the expansion and modernization of hog farms but consumption took a downturn in recent years due to a weakening economy, leading to a surplus that has hammered prices.

Current demand in China is stable and unlikely to rise further, Zhu said in a seminar.

He said it is not advisable for companies to expand breeding sow capacity this year and should instead focus on cost reduction and improving the efficiency of breeding sows.

Beijing in 2024 lowered the national target for normal retention of breeding sows to 39 million from 41 million and issued regulations to control the nation’s pig production capacity.

In an annual rural work policy blueprint released on Sunday, known as the No. 1 document, the State Council said it will strictly enforce and supervise pig slaughter and regulate pork production capacity.

A rise in the number of breeding sows this year could continue to pressure hog prices throughout the year, Zhu said.

Zhu forecasts pork imports to further decline in 2025 from last year’s 1.07 million metric tons while demand for offal will remain unchanged.

China’s imports of pork meat and offal had already shrunk 15.7 per cent last year, a fourth consecutive annual decline, as the industry grappled with an oversupplied market.

Zhu expects the number of pigs slaughtered in 2025 to increase from 2024, while the average price of pigs will decrease by 10 per cent to 20 per cent.

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Both organizations highlighted the need for an African Swine Fever trade recovery program to regain market access and stabilize the industry in the case of an outbreak. They also expressed their needs for a reliable agricultural workforce and asked the government to prioritize solutions to support the industry’s year-round needs.

“These were important days for our industry,” said CPC chair René Roy. “By joining forces with the Canadian Meat Council, we presented a united front to advocate for the priorities of the Canadian pork sector. Our conversations emphasized the urgent need to address challenges like ASF, expand trade opportunities, and agriculture’s unique labour needs, priorities which are crucial for sustaining and growing our industry. We look forward to continuing to work with policymakers to advance these priorities.”

“Our joint lobby day showcased the power of collaboration,” said Chris White, president and CEO of CMC and Canada Pork. “Together, we were able to effectively spotlight issues affecting both producers and processors in a way that demonstrates our industry’s cohesive vision for the future. We are grateful to all the parliamentarians and officials who joined us and look forward to building on these discussions.”

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