Shares fell more than two per cent in extended trading.

The Tampa, Florida-based fertilizer producer warned in January that an unusually sharp decline in North American fertilizer demand during the quarter would pressure sales and cash flow.

Demand for fertilizers has been under pressure as farmers cut nutrient use amid tight budgets, while an early onset of winter shortened the application window.

Sales volumes in the Phosphates segment fell to 1.3 million tonnes from 1.6 million tonnes a year earlier, the company said.

Global shipments could reach record levels

Phosphate markets have tightened as Chinese exports remain largely absent after Beijing extended its phosphate export restrictions, Mosaic said, adding that it expects restrictions to stay in place through at least the first half of the year.

“Like phosphate, potash prices have shifted higher, and current expectations suggest global shipments could reach record levels in 2026,” Mosaic added.

The company said it expects full-year phosphate production volumes to be at or above 7 million tonnes and potash production volumes to be about 9 million tonnes.

Mosaic forecast first-quarter phosphate sales volumes of 1.7 million to 1.9 million tonnes and potash sales volumes of 2.0 million to 2.2 million tonnes.

It also forecast capital spending of about $1.5 billion (C$2.06 billion) for the year.

The company reported adjusted earnings of 22 cents per share for the quarter ended December 31, compared with analysts’ average estimate of 47cents per share, according to data compiled by LSEG.

— Reporting by Katha Kalia and Sumit Saha in Bengaluru

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“We expect to be in a strong market next year,” Nutrien CEO Ken Seitz said on a call with analysts.

Nutrien topped Wall Street estimates for second-quarter profit on Wednesday, benefiting from improved demand in North America amid a robust corn planting season.

The strong results were a rare bright spot for agriculture-focused companies after large agribusinesses including Archer-Daniels-Midland and Bunge Global reported their weakest quarterly earnings in years amid trade uncertainty from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, while farm equipment makers warned of sales headwinds due to slumping farm incomes.

The company boosted its estimate of full-year potash sales following record sales in the first half of 2025, to a range of 13.9 million to 14.5 million metric tons, as farmers reacted to improving weather in parts of North America which had been grappling with drought conditions in previous years.

“We see growers investing to protect their yields,” said Jeff Tarsi, Nutrien’s head of global retail.

Crop prices for wheat, corn and soybeans are near multi-year lows in North America, a factor that can sometimes restrain farmers from buying fertilizer and other inputs, analysts say.

But excellent crops in many parts of the continent are encouraging farmers to use higher rates of fertilizer as this year’s expected high-yield crops remove more fertilizer from the soil. To produce maximum yields in 2026, U.S. farmers will need to replenish soil fertilizer levels more than in some recent dry years, Tarsi said.

On Monday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported American corn and soybean crops were in the best condition for years at this point of the growing season. Crop prices have fallen as markets anticipate big supplies from North America, Brazil and other significant areas.

Seitz said he sees the global potash market as “in balance” with “healthy” prices, citing strong demand and supplies unlikely to swell quickly due to challenges producers face in developing new projects.

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The group reported second-quarter earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of 110 million euros, below a company-provided consensus of 139 million euros.

It said agriculture sales of 1.74 million tonnes were below the consensus figure of 1.84 million tonnes due to an earlier-than-scheduled maintenance break at its Bethune site in Saskatchewan, logistical challenges in June, and unfavourable exchange rate between the dollar and euro.

K+S said it reaffirms its full-year outlook as potash prices had continued to rise moderately since the company reported on its first-quarter results in May.

— Reporting by Bartosz Dabrowski in Gdansk

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“Nutrien is reviewing options to increase West Coast port capacity as part of our long-term strategy to strengthen supply chain resilience and support rising global demand for potash,” the company said in a statement.

The Canada-based company is seeking a deep-water port with rail infrastructure capable of handling bulk potash exports for fast-growing Indo-Pacific markets, including China, India and Japan.

— Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru

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K+S produces around 8 million tonnes of potash products yearly, exporting about 300,000 tonnes to the United States mainly from Canada. Potash is primarily used in fertilizers.

“The tariffs will be passed on one-to-one to costs, meaning the American farmer will ultimately foot the bill,” CEO Burkhard Lohr said in a press conference.

“If this becomes a sustained issue, we have the option to serve the U.S. market from Germany at lower costs, as there are currently no tariffs on European potash deliveries,” he added.

Why it matters: Agricultural inputs like potash and phosphate have become leverage points in the ongoing trade war with the U.S.

Shares of the potash and salt miner were down around 5 per cent as of 10:25 GMT, cutting into their year-to-date gains that stood at 35 per cent as of Wednesday’s close.

Warburg Research analyst Oliver Schwarz said those gains were based on more positive “buy-side” expectations that had counted on a continued strong earnings boost from higher potash prices, which were dampened by the broadly stable outlook.

After a period of volatility caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that shrank margins at potash miners, potash prices began to stabilize in 2024.

Since December, they have been on an upward trend, rising around $5 every week or two, K+S said.

It forecast earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of 500 million to 620 million euros (C$781.8 million and $C969.4 million) in 2025, compared with 557.7 million last year.

At its midpoint of 560 million euros, the outlook is above analysts’ average estimate of 537.5 million in a Vara poll, but the buy-side had expected more, Schwarz said.

K+S topped market expectations for 2024 core earnings, in contrast to North American rivals Mosaic and Nutrien whose results missed them due to lower sales.

Lohr said the company expected the positive potash price trend to continue, helped by strong demand from markets like China which is tapping into its strategic reserves to meet agricultural needs.

(1 euro = C$1.56)

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“A U.S. farmer may have to bear the brunt of increasing costs associated with tariffs for an import from Canada,” said Ken Seitz, president and chief executive officer of Nutrien.

The United States imports over 80 per cent of their potash from Canada, specifically Saskatchewan. As such, Nutrien is one company paying close attention to the ongoing trade situation.

“We have been talking with governments, as you might expect, including our colleagues in Washington, trying to work this through,” said Seitz. “But ultimately, over time, we expect this would be a bit of a challenge for the US farmer.”

Seitz has only recently returned from the U.S. capital, and will be there again next week. They’ve been in talks with U.S. policy makers to try and increase the understanding of potash’s importance and what it means to American farmers.

The company has been “dedicating a significant amount of time” to this awareness.

Nutrien has six potash mines in Saskatchewan, and exports the mineral to over 50 countries internationally. In addition to potash, they also process nitrogen, with nine plants worldwide – four in Canada, four in the US, and one in Trinidad.

“We’re going to be watching tariffs very closely, and we’re going to be carrying on with our business, including operating our plants and serving farmers in the way that we always do.”

Seitz believes that Nutrien is well positioned to deal with the situation, due to their global reach. While the U.S. is a major customer base, there is more worry for the American farmers than for Nutrien and potash distribution.

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Nearly 800,000 tonnes of grain moved through the port on the northern shores of Lake Superior in November, bringing the year-to-date total to 6.818 million tonnes, according to a report. That compares with 6.027 million tonnes at the same point a year ago and comes in about 500,000 tonnes above the five-year average for grain movement.

Potash shipments were running at their strongest level in 40 years, with 259,385 tonnes shipped in November. That brought the year-to-date total to 1.676 million tonnes up 11 per cent from 2023.

A total of 432 vessels have visited the port this year, which compares with 388 a year ago. There were 169 foreign ocean going ‘salties’ through November, up from 151 at the same time last year.

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“We’ve dealt with the Trump government previously and we’ll do it again,” he told Glacier FarmMedia today. “We will deal with each issue as they come forward.”

Trump said Monday he would sign an executive order on his first day in office in January that would impose a 25 per cent tariff on all products coming into the United States from Canada and Mexico to curb the flow of illegal drugs and migrants into the U.S.

During the first Trump term, relations between the U.S. and Canada frayed, with Trump threatening to end the North American Free Trade Agreement, and demanding Canada allow more access to U.S. dairy products.

MacAulay said Trudeau spoke with Trump shortly after the tariff comments were made. He also pointed to the re-established the Cabinet Committee on Canada-U.S. Relations, which will focus on such issues.

Disruptions, diversification

Tariffs could disrupt shipments of beef and dairy cattle and hogs between the U.S. and Canada, and potentially affect producers in both countries.

Manitoba alone sends about 3 million piglets each year to producers in Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota and Nebraska, where feed corn can be sourced more cheaply, according to the Canada Pork Council and Manitoba Pork Council. Midwestern farmers then raise and fatten up the animals in their feeder barns, before sending them to slaughter – and the pork flows both to buyers in the U.S. and Canada after processing.

The threat of tariffs could be a way of attaining leverage over Mexico and Canada in the lead-up to renegotiation of the USMCA trade deal, set to be reviewed in 2026, said Peter Tabor, an attorney and senior policy advisor at Holland & Knight and a former USDA trade official in a report from Reuters.

But implementation of steep tariffs over time could mean the U.S. may be seen as an unreliable trading partner and that importers of U.S. goods would look elsewhere to fill the void, Tabor said.

Potash mining company BHP suggested diversification will be its answer to the tariff threat.

“We have a strategy to be geographically diversified with our sales. So we will not just sell to the U.S. We will sell all over the globe,” said Karina Gistelinck, asset president of potash for BHP in Saskatchewan.

“Obviously, the U.S. is a big end user, consumer for potash, and we will take that into account.”

Gistelinck said “tariffs come and go” and the Australian-owned BHP prioritizes resilience to tariffs and other price changes.

“We will do that by being the lowest cost, safest, most sustainable mine here in Saskatchewan.”

Defense, policing

Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew told media today that Canada needs to show Trump it’s serious about border security.

“We need more RCMP,” Kinew said. “We need more Mounties to bring the hammer down on drug traffickers. I think responding to that concern today will also help us on the trade side.”

Manpower is only part of the equation, said Kinew. He would also like to see police using high-tech tools such as drones for better enforcement outcomes.

Kinew also said Canada should hit its goal of spending two per cent of GDP on defense spending as a show of good faith to the Trump administration.

Although Trump did not broach the topic of defense spending in this instance, in the past he has referred a need for other countries, including Canada, to pull their weight.

“Hitting that target of two per cent spending on defense just sort of . . . gets us in the game just to be taken seriously as a security partner with the U.S. If we don’t do it, it’s going to become a trade problem,” Kinew said.

—With files from Karen Briere, Janelle Rudolph, Geralyn Wichers and Reuters

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“We’ve dealt with the Trump government previously and we’ll do it again,” he told Glacier FarmMedia today. “We will deal with each issue as they come forward.”

Trump said Monday he would sign an executive order on his first day in office in January that would impose a 25 per cent tariff on all products coming into the United States from Canada and Mexico to curb the flow of illegal drugs and migrants into the U.S.

During the first Trump term, relations between the U.S. and Canada frayed, with Trump threatening to end the North American Free Trade Agreement, and demanding Canada allow more access to U.S. dairy products.

MacAulay said Trudeau spoke with Trump shortly after the tariff comments were made. He also pointed to the re-established the Cabinet Committee on Canada-U.S. Relations, which will focus on such issues.

Disruptions, diversification

Tariffs could disrupt shipments of beef and dairy cattle and hogs between the U.S. and Canada, and potentially affect producers in both countries.

Manitoba alone sends about 3 million piglets each year to producers in Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota and Nebraska, where feed corn can be sourced more cheaply, according to the Canada Pork Council and Manitoba Pork Council. Midwestern farmers then raise and fatten up the animals in their feeder barns, before sending them to slaughter – and the pork flows both to buyers in the U.S. and Canada after processing.

The threat of tariffs could be a way of attaining leverage over Mexico and Canada in the lead-up to renegotiation of the USMCA trade deal, set to be reviewed in 2026, said Peter Tabor, an attorney and senior policy advisor at Holland & Knight and a former USDA trade official in a report from Reuters.

But implementation of steep tariffs over time could mean the U.S. may be seen as an unreliable trading partner and that importers of U.S. goods would look elsewhere to fill the void, Tabor said.

Potash mining company BHP suggested diversification will be its answer to the tariff threat.

“We have a strategy to be geographically diversified with our sales. So we will not just sell to the U.S. We will sell all over the globe,” said Karina Gistelinck, asset president of potash for BHP in Saskatchewan.

“Obviously, the U.S. is a big end user, consumer for potash, and we will take that into account.”

Gistelinck said “tariffs come and go” and the Australian-owned BHP prioritizes resilience to tariffs and other price changes.

“We will do that by being the lowest cost, safest, most sustainable mine here in Saskatchewan.”

Defense, policing

Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew told media today that Canada needs to show Trump it’s serious about border security.

“We need more RCMP,” Kinew said. “We need more Mounties to bring the hammer down on drug traffickers. I think responding to that concern today will also help us on the trade side.”

Manpower is only part of the equation, said Kinew. He would also like to see police using high-tech tools such as drones for better enforcement outcomes.

Kinew also said Canada should hit its goal of spending two per cent of GDP on defense spending as a show of good faith to the Trump administration.

Although Trump did not broach the topic of defense spending in this instance, in the past he has referred a need for other countries, including Canada, to pull their weight.

“Hitting that target of two per cent spending on defense just sort of . . . gets us in the game just to be taken seriously as a security partner with the U.S. If we don’t do it, it’s going to become a trade problem,” Kinew said.

—With files from Karen Briere, Janelle Rudolph, Geralyn Wichers and Reuters

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The death took place at the railcar-loading facility at Nutrien’s mine near the town of Rocanville, about 250 km (150 miles) east of the provincial capital Regina.

In a statement the company said it is conducting an internal investigation and is cooperating with authorities.

“Our current focus is on ensuring we have support services available to all those involved,” the statement said, adding that the company is “unlikely to have further details until the completion of internal and external investigations.”

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