“The Canadian Prairies still have another week of unsettled weather for the eastern part of the region,” Lerner said in an interview on July 2.

That’s to include scattered showers on a daily basis, while Alberta won’t see as much precipitation.

“We will see the western part of Canada drying down and heating up in general,” he added, noting the eastern portion will begin to get less rain during the week of July 8.

“The temperatures won’t be as warm as they will be in the west,” Lerner continued, adding those should return to normal levels.

As for the U.S., Lerner said the Midwest is to be cool and rainy.

“The only areas that are a problem are those in the upper Midwest where you are going to have excessive moisture around for a while,” he commented, noting there could be more localized flooding.

The eastern half of the Midwest and the Delta region will get some timely rains after being drier for some time.

“The southeastern states will finally get some relief from the drying that’s been occurring there for a while,” Lerner said.

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“We are starting to see hints of warmer weather arriving in Alberta,” the chief scientist for Weatherlogics stated, noting that Manitoba and Saskatchewan are to get temperatures that are normal to below normal.

“In the early part of the month we are expecting a ridge in the jet stream to build over British Columbia, so that tends to bring warmer weather. But it doesn’t look like it’s going to last for a really long time though,” Kehler said.

While that phenomenon pertaining to the jet stream isn’t expected to last, he said it will be very active for its duration.

Manitoba will be the wetter province in early June and Alberta will be drier. Saskatchewan will be a mixed bag being wetter in some parts and other parts being drier,” he explained.

Going in the second half of June, Kehler said the pattern may change but it was still too early to say.

On June 3, Environment and Climate Change Canada issued its outlook for the summer, which called for a 60 per cent chance for above-normal temperatures during June, July and August, with Manitoba at 80 per cent.

As for precipitation, ECCC projected parts of southern Alberta, the province’s northeast, along with central Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba to have a 40 per cent chance of a drier summer. The southernmost areas of Alberta were pegged at more than 50 per cent drier than normal.

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Provincial weather stations picked up hints of moisture in southern Alberta yesterday—with about 1 mm registered at Lethbridge and the St. Mary Reservoir.

Blackie, east of High River, got 11 mm yesterday. Claresholm saw more than 9 mm of precipitation. Further north, Leedale and Rocky Mountain House saw between one and two millimeters of moisture.

In Saskatchewan, Yorkton got about 6 mm of precipitation, as per Environment and Natural Resources Canada. Saskatoon got 9 mm, while North Battleford saw just over 2 mm. Regina registered no precipitation yesterday, though at time of writing a light snow shower was reported to be falling.

The heaviest amounts of precipitation were predicted to fall on northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, said MarketsFarm’s Bruce Burnett in a weather update this morning.

In Manitoba, Winnipeg reported more than 18 mm of precipitation yesterday, Brandon clocked just over 17 mm, and Dauphin saw nearly 23 mm of precipitation, Environment Canada said.

Precipitation over the past week has benefited a limited area of the Prairies, the bulk of which have been drier than normal over the past 30 days.

“The only region reporting a net gain in precipitation was southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan. These areas have reported a net gain of 10 to 25 mm. The rest of the Prairies reported 5 to 25 mm below normal precipitation during the month,” Burnett wrote.

“The current system moving across the Prairies will add more general precipitation which will help improve topsoil moisture conditions.”

While overall soil moisture is extremely dry, topsoil moisture for seeding will be mostly adequate in the next couple weeks, Burnett added.

Yesterday, meteorologist Daniel Bezte forecasted sunny-to-partly-cloudy skies to move into Alberta on Wednesday. Manitoba can expect cloudy skies and occasional flurries into Thursday and Friday before skies finally clear.

The post Snow and rain fall across the Prairies appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

Going into winter the Prairies were still quite dry, with the region getting little snow for most of the season. Only during late winter and into early spring was there a little bit more snow, which reduced the dryness to an extent.

“It looks like the western Prairies, Alberta and the western Saskatchewan, will start April with kind of normal temperatures. The eastern Prairies, especially Manitoba are looking to be warmer than normal for the first half of the month,” Kehler stated.

In terms of precipitation, he said it’s a similar story, with the western half of the Prairies likely to be wetter than normal, especially southern Alberta and parts of Saskatchewan. Meanwhile the eastern half is more likely to experience conditions that could be a little bit more drier, Kehler explained.

A notable factor driving this divergence he pointed out is the diminishing El Niño.

“Typically when an El Niño starts to fade, often that will create a more active weather pattern on the Prairies,” he stated.

Kehler noted there will be greater potential for larger weather systems such as Colorado Lows, more rain, more snow and towards the end of April opportunities for thunderstorms.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg. 

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It is only a forecast, says Matt Makens with Makens Weather based in Colorado, but the El Nino weather pattern is fizzling out and the La Niña weather pattern is phasing in.

“A lot depends on how quickly that transition occurs,” says Makens, who recently spoke to the Alberta Beef Industry Conference in Calgary.

“But indications are that the transition is moving quickly, which means the La Niña effect will bring moisture and cooler temperatures earlier.”

That means the Canadian Prairies will likely see rain in April and May, and if the transition slows, it could delay that moisture until June and July. Makens said things are shaping up for prairie moisture early in the spring and summer, turning drier toward August and September.

Makens provides weather consulting services to CanFax, CattleFax, the National Cattleman’s Beef Association and many producers across North America. He noted that after the sun, El Niño and La Niña are the second biggest factors driving global weather patterns.

El Niño is a weather pattern that occurs in the Pacific Ocean, usually every three to five years. Winds warm surface water from the equator and move east toward Central and South America. The southern part of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest (including Western Canada) tend to be warmer and drier than average, whereas the central and southern regions of the U.S. tend to be wetter and cooler than average.

La Niña has the opposite effect. During La Niña events, trade winds are stronger, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.

These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to cause drought in the southern United States and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada.

During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the south and cooler than normal in the north.

Makens notes the difference been El Niño and La Niña ocean temperatures is only one degree Celsius.

“In most conditions, and certainly in this conference centre, if the temperature changed one degree most of us wouldn’t notice,” says Makens. “But in the Pacific Ocean, if the water temperature warms half a degree, that can launch the El Niño weather pattern and if it cools half a degree, that launches the La Niña weather pattern.”

El Niño, which on average influences Canadian weather for up to 18 months, “generally is not good news for western Canadian beef producers,” says Makens, because it usually means dry conditions for Canada.

However, it is generally good news for the North American beef industry because it brings moisture to the major beef producing states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico.

When the weather pattern switches to La Niña, it brings cooler winds and temperatures from Alaska and the Aleutian Islands into Western Canada — snow to mountains in British Columbia and, depending on the strength, includes moisture to the Prairies as well.

Looking ahead, Makens says his spring forecast for March through May suggests as El Niño fizzles out and La Niña moves in, there will be moisture for the Prairies. He’s optimistic for April and May rain.

For the summer forecast, June through August when La Niña settles in, the moisture outlook across Western Canada doesn’t look too bad and it will likely be somewhat cooler.

For September through November, he expects about 88 percent of the La Niña effect will be over Western Canada, with colder temperatures and moisture generally favourable for B.C. and the central Prairies.

For winter 2024-25, he is forecasting a cold winter with about average precipitation.

Makens noted a couple of wild cards. One is the 2024 wildfire season and its severity. A bad season that produces a lot of smoke will add to the cooling trend.

Another wildcard was an underwater volcanic eruption near the Polynesian Kingdom of Tonga in the Pacific Ocean in January 2022, which blasted 50 million acre-feet of water into the atmosphere. It will take two or three years for that moisture to dissipate and in the meantime, it can have a warming effect.

Makens is forecasting that the cooler trend of La Niña will affect Canadian weather for the next two to three years.

The post Prairies expected to be cooler, wetter this year appeared first on Alberta Farmer Express.

As of March 1, the northern third of the province, as well as the southwest corner and south-central region of Saskatchewan, were projected to have well below-normal runoff.

A major snowstorm which brought up to 45 centimetres in central and southern regions of the province on March 2 and 3 helped to slightly improve conditions. Areas surrounding Saskatoon and west of the city, as well as locations in the southeast along the Manitoba border, will see near normal runoff. However, as of March 4, the province’s snowpack remains below-normal to well below-normal.

“Although the recent snowfall will help our situation and our producers this spring, we as a government will still be prepared to help those areas with dry conditions,” Minister Responsible for Water Security Agency David Marit said. “More moisture will be needed as temperatures continue to stay above zero. WSA will still be taking as many proactive measures as possible to prepare for changing conditions.”

However, dry conditions persist in southern parts of Saskatchewan. Localized water supply shortages are possible in the south-central this spring and the WSA has enacted conservative operating plans at most major reservoirs since last winter.

Despite the dry conditions, most reservoirs in the southern half of the province are at or above normal water levels. However, the report cited the Avonlea, Altawan and Cypress Reservoirs as those which could see lower levels due to the small snowpack.

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